pre-draft trading for pics...thoughts?

[dpbuddha 9]

I'm in a PPR league that keeps 4 players with 1-round penalty each year, kept up to 3 years. Lots of guys off the board to start the draft, so currently planning on keeping: (non-snake)

1.6 Kelce

10.6 Etienne

11.6 Fields

16.6 Akers

There are 2-3 teams that have 0-1 options for players to keep with any kind of value. I think I can try to entice them to give up draft capital in exchange for these guys:

9.6 Marquis Brown (4 round savings)

12.6 Pacheco (6 round savings...currently)

17.6 Njoku (9 round savings)

The teams with slot 3 and 4 both have terrible options. I'm thinking I offer all 3 of these guys and maybe my 8th round pick in exchange for his 2nd round pick. I expect that pick to be Derick Henry, Josh Allen, Jonathan Taylor (if things are still weird), Breece Hall, DK Metcalf. 

Do you think this is fair? I have basically no experience trading keepers and draft picks.

[League Champion 1,593]

I may be in the minority but I'd throw Kelce back into the pool. You could probably get him back at 1.6 if all else fails. 

Out of any of those trade options I'd say Pacheco may draw some interest but I wouldn't be interested in the others. 

It's certainly worth a try 

[dpbuddha 9]

4 hours ago, League Champion said:

I may be in the minority but I'd throw Kelce back into the pool. You could probably get him back at 1.6 if all else fails. 

Out of any of those trade options I'd say Pacheco may draw some interest but I wouldn't be interested in the others. 

It's certainly worth a try 

Because 48 players can be kept (including Jefferson, Chase, Kupp, Hill, Ekeler), if I were to throw Kelce back in, he would likely go at 1.2...currently the first 5 teams don't have a round 1 keeper and the top available players come draft day look like McCaffrey, Bijan, Diggs, Barkley, Lamb. I would probably be in line for someone like Saquon or Ceedee Lamb if I send Kelce back.

I know those guys don't seem super sexy, but everyone gets pushed up due to so many keepers being retained at good values. Not sure if Mahomes will be kept or not in late Round 1...would be nice to figure out how to pair him up with Kelce.

[Ray_T 591]

48 minutes ago, dpbuddha said:

Because 48 players can be kept (including Jefferson, Chase, Kupp, Hill, Ekeler), if I were to throw Kelce back in, he would likely go at 1.2...currently the first 5 teams don't have a round 1 keeper and the top available players come draft day look like McCaffrey, Bijan, Diggs, Barkley, Lamb. I would probably be in line for someone like Saquon or Ceedee Lamb if I send Kelce back.

I know those guys don't seem super sexy, but everyone gets pushed up due to so many keepers being retained at good values. Not sure if Mahomes will be kept or not in late Round 1...would be nice to figure out how to pair him up with Kelce.

you could be right.

But Kelce isnt a player for a rebuilding team. hes got 1, possibly 2 years in the tank.  if he has 3 it would possibly be record breaking for a TE.  while not impossible I wouldnt bet on it.

if you gave up Kelce and got Sequon Barkley I'd consider that a win.

that being said....do you think you can win it with Kelce?   if the answer is no, why are you keeping him?

your best bet may actually be a trade (if that is allowed)

 is anyone out there interested in him?   better a trade than losing him for nothing.

[League Champion 1,593]

2 hours ago, Ray_T said:

that being said....do you think you can win it with Kelce?   if the answer is no, why are you keeping him?

Great point. If you're a Kelce away from a Championship then yes. But since it's a keeper league I'd look elsewhere. Kelce could fall off a cliff the next couple seasons. 

[JagFan 97]

3 hours ago, Ray_T said:

you could be right.

But Kelce isnt a player for a rebuilding team. hes got 1, possibly 2 years in the tank.  if he has 3 it would possibly be record breaking for a TE.  while not impossible I wouldnt bet on it.

if you gave up Kelce and got Sequon Barkley I'd consider that a win.

that being said....do you think you can win it with Kelce?   if the answer is no, why are you keeping him?

your best bet may actually be a trade (if that is allowed)

 is anyone out there interested in him?   better a trade than losing him for nothing.

If I’m reading this correctly, this will be the last year he can keep Kelce so he’s only concerned about this year.  I do think 1.6 is a little rich for him, but it really becomes a question of what’s left to compare the pick to.  If it’s Kelce vs Saquon I’d probably stick with Kelce because he’s a difference maker at his position (especially if this is a TE mandatory league) + he’s the #1 pass catching option for an elite QB and Toney is already injured.

I think the most unfortunate thing about the situation is that this team is essentially w/o a true first round pick.

[Ray_T 591]

5 hours ago, JagFan said:

If I’m reading this correctly, this will be the last year he can keep Kelce so he’s only concerned about this year.  I do think 1.6 is a little rich for him, but it really becomes a question of what’s left to compare the pick to.  If it’s Kelce vs Saquon I’d probably stick with Kelce because he’s a difference maker at his position (especially if this is a TE mandatory league) + he’s the #1 pass catching option for an elite QB and Toney is already injured.

I think the most unfortunate thing about the situation is that this team is essentially w/o a true first round pick.

.

he is in the unique position of being able to keep guys that were taken with late round picks.  once Kelce falls off a cliff in terms of his production he will have zero value and he will start over again.     its the perfect opportunity to finish the rebuild.   it is basically 1 year of pain for a lot of years of being competitive.

in the end its a matter of priorities.  if he drafts well, and all his players play closer to their potential, he could have an outside shot at the championship

Etienne has the most upside.  I'm amazed at how well hes come back from that terrible injury 2 years ago and I'm not even sure he was playing at 100% for all of last year.  so I see bigger and better things for him.

Fields could be a top QB if his throwing improves.   it could happen.  they have added significant talent at WR.  if he cant do it now, he will likely never do it.

Akers still feels like a hit or miss player but has shown signs of coming around late last year.

This feels like a team that could be very good or very bad.

I think it is prudent to see what people would give for Kelce.   but he may want to keep him and see what his young players can do first.   its mostly a matter of what he wants to do with the team, but if things dont pan out early and Kelces numbers are down, he wont be able to get rid of him and this rebuild ends up taking a year or two longer.

no doubt his team is better with Kelce, but its a one year bonus.  if he cannot capitalize on it, he needs to cut bait.   

maybe the move is to keep kelce and  see how the draft plays out.   if he doesnt like his team after the draft, he can look into trading him before the season begins  or just keep him if his team looks good after the draft. 

teams who feel they are one piece away from a championship will pay for handsomely in terms of draft capital for Kelce at that point.   so there really is no need to make this move today

[JagFan 97]

3 hours ago, Ray_T said:

.

he is in the unique position of being able to keep guys that were taken with late round picks.  once Kelce falls off a cliff in terms of his production he will have zero value and he will start over again.     its the perfect opportunity to finish the rebuild.   it is basically 1 year of pain for a lot of years of being competitive.

in the end its a matter of priorities.  if he drafts well, and all his players play closer to their potential, he could have an outside shot at the championship

Etienne has the most upside.  I'm amazed at how well hes come back from that terrible injury 2 years ago and I'm not even sure he was playing at 100% for all of last year.  so I see bigger and better things for him.

Fields could be a top QB if his throwing improves.   it could happen.  they have added significant talent at WR.  if he cant do it now, he will likely never do it.

Akers still feels like a hit or miss player but has shown signs of coming around late last year.

This feels like a team that could be very good or very bad.

I think it is prudent to see what people would give for Kelce.   but he may want to keep him and see what his young players can do first.   its mostly a matter of what he wants to do with the team, but if things dont pan out early and Kelces numbers are down, he wont be able to get rid of him and this rebuild ends up taking a year or two longer.

no doubt his team is better with Kelce, but its a one year bonus.  if he cannot capitalize on it, he needs to cut bait.   

maybe the move is to keep kelce and  see how the draft plays out.   if he doesnt like his team after the draft, he can look into trading him before the season begins  or just keep him if his team looks good after the draft. 

teams who feel they are one piece away from a championship will pay for handsomely in terms of draft capital for Kelce at that point.   so there really is no need to make this move today

I agree totally, except for one major rule of the league…you keep a player 1 round higher than last year.  That means Kelce can’t be kept next year, nor can whomever he drafts in the first round if he throws Kelce back.  So the only way Kelce aids him in a rebuild is to trade Kelce for picks that would have to be lower than a first, and he’ll have to hit on that/those picks if he’s going to get a player for at least one more year.  Maybe he gets a 1st and something else.  But that’s a steep price for a player that is only a borderline 1st round pick as it is…unlikely anyone makes that type of trade.  IMO, the first round means nothing in this league beyond this year.  So why trade Kelce to help another team?  

[Ray_T 591]

40 minutes ago, JagFan said:

I agree totally, except for one major rule of the league…you keep a player 1 round higher than last year.  That means Kelce can’t be kept next year, nor can whomever he drafts in the first round if he throws Kelce back.  So the only way Kelce aids him in a rebuild is to trade Kelce for picks that would have to be lower than a first, and he’ll have to hit on that/those picks if he’s going to get a player for at least one more year.  Maybe he gets a 1st and something else.  But that’s a steep price for a player that is only a borderline 1st round pick as it is…unlikely anyone makes that type of trade.  IMO, the first round means nothing in this league beyond this year.  So why trade Kelce to help another team?  

like I said, a team thinking Kelce may be the final piece might overpay to get him.

but this is speculative.  its a know your league thing.   and you and I dont know the league.  only the original poster does.  and if he shared this info, we dont have any way of knowing whether his view on his leaguemates is correct so it isnt easy to give quality advice on this part.

 

all I was doing is laying out some options.   The meat and potatoes is whether he thinks he can win.   if the answer is no or highly unlikely, selling kelce for draft picks(or another player who is keepable)  or some combination of the two may be the answer.

and yes, he is helping another team.  but this kind of trade is a trade of present value for future value.   a perfectly acceptable way of rebuilding the roster.

either way, whenever trading a top player, you want to see all of the options.   all we can do is provide some options that perhaps the original poster may not have considered.

[JagFan 97]

3 hours ago, Ray_T said:

like I said, a team thinking Kelce may be the final piece might overpay to get him.

but this is speculative.  its a know your league thing.   and you and I dont know the league.  only the original poster does.  and if he shared this info, we dont have any way of knowing whether his view on his leaguemates is correct so it isnt easy to give quality advice on this part.

 

all I was doing is laying out some options.   The meat and potatoes is whether he thinks he can win.   if the answer is no or highly unlikely, selling kelce for draft picks(or another player who is keepable)  or some combination of the two may be the answer.

and yes, he is helping another team.  but this kind of trade is a trade of present value for future value.   a perfectly acceptable way of rebuilding the roster.

either way, whenever trading a top player, you want to see all of the options.   all we can do is provide some options that perhaps the original poster may not have considered.

Your last statement is why I always come here to read these posts.  It’s been the best place to get good opinions for a long time.  Much respect for your contributions over the years.