weepaws 2,478 Posted September 28, 2023 Rolling the dice. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
bimmer 7 Posted September 28, 2023 2 minutes ago, weepaws said: Rolling the dice. don't you have other choices better than Watson at this time? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
weepaws 2,478 Posted September 28, 2023 9 minutes ago, bimmer said: don't you have other choices better than Watson at this time? Mmm maybe. But I’m going to roll with him in my flex tonight. 14 team ppr, and .5 ppr. So I’m going to give him a go. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
weepaws 2,478 Posted September 29, 2023 Watson might still have a solid game, but I did listen to the board, and about two hours before game time I saw that B Aiyuk practice in full, so I decided to flex him. But Watson still could have a good one, and I hope he does, just hope I made the right decision. Thanks. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
weepaws 2,478 Posted September 29, 2023 Ten points so far, that’s a good game, I hope those that didn’t have a better choice played Watson. Welcome. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
nobody 2,054 Posted September 29, 2023 6 hours ago, weepaws said: Mmm maybe. But I’m going to roll with him in my flex tonight. 14 team ppr, and .5 ppr. So I’m going to give him a go. Rookie move putting a Thursday night receiver in your flex. Better to put him at a receiver position to maintain maximum flexibility into the Sunday games. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
weepaws 2,478 Posted September 29, 2023 True dat. And that’s why I check out FFToday for my ff help. Now I hope Aiyuk can score more then 10 points. If not I made a mistake and should have played Watson in my flex. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
bimmer 7 Posted September 29, 2023 Jones saw just five rushes for 18 yards and caught one pass for -4 yards against Detroit. He played 20 snaps to AJ Dillon’s 38. After the game, Jones once again complained about a lack of carries. Watson, coming off a hamstring injury, said he was frustrated to be sidelined during the Packers’ final drive. He ran a route on 47 percent of the Packers’ drop backs against Detroit. The team was clearly easing Jones and Watson back into the offensive fold on Thursday night. As expected Watson was limited.... Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Ray_T 596 Posted September 29, 2023 10 hours ago, weepaws said: I hope Aiyuk can score more then 10 points. He should get 10 points. but if he doesnt, does that truly mean you made a mistake? if this is what you need and this is one of like 2 or 3 games this year when he doesnt get it is it a mistake on your part? or just bad luck? just sayin.... Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
nobody 2,054 Posted September 29, 2023 25 minutes ago, Ray_T said: He should get 10 points. but if he doesnt, does that truly mean you made a mistake? if this is what you need and this is one of like 2 or 3 games this year when he doesnt get it is it a mistake on your part? or just bad luck? just sayin.... He's making another rookie mistake by being results oriented. If the process is right that what's important. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Ray_T 596 Posted September 29, 2023 13 minutes ago, nobody said: If the process is right that what's important. Thats basically what I said. you go through the process and make the best decision you can. just because it doesnt work out doesnt mean he made a mistake. players sometimes have bad games or have undeclared injuries none of us could have possibly known about that lead to bad results. That does not mean he made a mistake. It just means it didnt work out on this particular occasion. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
nobody 2,054 Posted September 29, 2023 10 minutes ago, Ray_T said: Thats basically what I said. you go through the process and make the best decision you can. just because it doesnt work out doesnt mean he made a mistake. players sometimes have bad games or have undeclared injuries none of us could have possibly known about that lead to bad results. That does not mean he made a mistake. It just means it didnt work out on this particular occasion. I just wanted to say he was making rookie mistakes 2 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Ray_T 596 Posted September 29, 2023 2 minutes ago, nobody said: I just wanted to say he was making rookie mistakes well, hes a stats guy. and stats do mean something but even for guys like him.... you make the best decision based on what is known. you can never account for the unknowns. if 9 times out of 10 it works out, that doesnt mean you made a mistake the one time it doesnt. it just means the odds caught up with you on that one occasion. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
nobody 2,054 Posted September 29, 2023 22 minutes ago, Ray_T said: well, hes a stats guy. and stats do mean something but even for guys like him.... you make the best decision based on what is known. you can never account for the unknowns. if 9 times out of 10 it works out, that doesnt mean you made a mistake the one time it doesnt. it just means the odds caught up with you on that one occasion. He's definitely not a stats guy. He might look at stats, but he's not a stats guy. Stats guys would understand probability distribution functions and understand that if you're comparing two players, each player will have a range of outcomes, the probability of which are dependent on average and variance. For two players, those two probability density functions will have overlap, and even though one player averages less than the other, in any given week, that player can out score another, so saying, "I hope I didn't make a mistake" is irrelevant as long as you picked the person more likely to score more points given average and variance. Then you'll either experience positive variance or negative variance. Some might call that luck, but it's just variance. Good luck and bad luck is just the instantaneous experience of variance inherent to a given event. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Ray_T 596 Posted September 29, 2023 1 hour ago, nobody said: He's definitely not a stats guy. He might look at stats, but he's not a stats guy. Stats guys would understand probability distribution functions and understand that if you're comparing two players, each player will have a range of outcomes, the probability of which are dependent on average and variance. For two players, those two probability density functions will have overlap, and even though one player averages less than the other, in any given week, that player can out score another, so saying, "I hope I didn't make a mistake" is irrelevant as long as you picked the person more likely to score more points given average and variance. Then you'll either experience positive variance or negative variance. Some might call that luck, but it's just variance. Good luck and bad luck is just the instantaneous experience of variance inherent to a given event. I hear what you are saying and do not disagree. I personally like to look at stats myself. I do this for a living with things that are not associated with fantasy football. that said stats do not always tell the tale. you need to look deeper to find out what the stats mean. or what is driving the stats (or change in stats as the case may be) The Eye test is often useful if you have the skill to look at a play and figure out why it worked (or didnt work) and whether it was a great play by an individual, or a great block that freed the individual and led to a large gain. RB's are tricky because its not just skill of the RB that matters. the blocking ability of the team in front of him as well as the skill of the QB also factor in because those things may determine how a defense decides to behave relative to a certain setup. so a play with the same personnel could work with Herbert at QB but would flop with a lesser QB because the threat to beat them with a great throw is far greater with Herbert. Thats why The chargers have had decent run production in the past with a subpar line and a good RB. with a lesser QB I'm not sure that Ekeler produces the same way. either way the bottom line is stats only can tell you so much. sure there are other analyitics that can tell you the same thing I just told you but I find its more fun to actually watch the games and see it in action. sometimes seeing for yourself will give you a different perspective that you may have lacked just by looking at the stats. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Phil Simms 11 127 Posted September 30, 2023 I played Watson, no better options in a 16 team league Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
weepaws 2,478 Posted September 30, 2023 Ten points is a lot of points in a 16 team league, 14 is the most I’ve ever played, 16 teams would be very challenging. Do you have limits on how many players one can roster per position? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Ray_T 596 Posted September 30, 2023 2 hours ago, Phil Simms 11 said: I played Watson, no better options in a 16 team league 16 teamers are a way different dynamic. in that format you are lucky to get one or two superstars and decent depth. and that is not even a given in this format. anyone who is a #1 WR on their own team is a good player to have in this format. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Phil Simms 11 127 Posted September 30, 2023 7 hours ago, weepaws said: Ten points is a lot of points in a 16 team league, 14 is the most I’ve ever played, 16 teams would be very challenging. Do you have limits on how many players one can roster per position? No but the bench is only 5 deep to help waivers a bit. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
weepaws 2,478 Posted October 1, 2023 On 9/28/2023 at 11:19 PM, weepaws said: True dat. And that’s why I check out FFToday for my ff help. Now I hope Aiyuk can score more then 10 points. If not I made a mistake and should have played Watson in my flex. Made it. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites