Christian Watson - Hamstring Injury

[weepaws 2,460]

Rolling the dice.   

[bimmer 7]

2 minutes ago, weepaws said:

Rolling the dice.   

don't you have other choices better than Watson at this time?

[weepaws 2,460]

9 minutes ago, bimmer said:

don't you have other choices better than Watson at this time?

Mmm maybe.  But I’m going to roll with him in my flex tonight.  14 team ppr, and .5 ppr.  So I’m going to give him a go.  

[weepaws 2,460]

Watson might still have a solid game, but I did listen to the board, and about two hours before game time I saw that B Aiyuk practice in full, so I decided to flex him.  But Watson still could have a good one, and I hope he does, just hope I made the right decision.  

Thanks.  

[weepaws 2,460]

Ten points so far, that’s a good game, I hope those that didn’t have a better choice played Watson.  Welcome.  

[nobody 2,043]

6 hours ago, weepaws said:

Mmm maybe.  But I’m going to roll with him in my flex tonight.  14 team ppr, and .5 ppr.  So I’m going to give him a go.  

Rookie move putting a Thursday night receiver in your flex.  Better to put him at a receiver position to maintain maximum flexibility into the Sunday games.

[weepaws 2,460]

True dat.  And that’s why I check out FFToday for my ff help.  Now I hope Aiyuk can score more then 10 points.  If not I made a mistake and should have played Watson in my flex.  

[bimmer 7]

Jones saw just five rushes for 18 yards and caught one pass for -4 yards against Detroit. He played 20 snaps to AJ Dillon’s 38. After the game, Jones once again complained about a lack of carries. Watson, coming off a hamstring injury, said he was frustrated to be sidelined during the Packers’ final drive. He ran a route on 47 percent of the Packers’ drop backs against Detroit. The team was clearly easing Jones and Watson back into the offensive fold on Thursday night.

As expected Watson was limited....

[Ray_T 591]

10 hours ago, weepaws said:

I hope Aiyuk can score more then 10 points.  

He should get 10 points.

but if he doesnt, does that truly mean you made a mistake?   if this is what you need and this is one of like 2 or 3 games this year when he doesnt get it is it a mistake on your part?  or just bad luck?  

just sayin....

[nobody 2,043]

25 minutes ago, Ray_T said:

He should get 10 points.

but if he doesnt, does that truly mean you made a mistake?   if this is what you need and this is one of like 2 or 3 games this year when he doesnt get it is it a mistake on your part?  or just bad luck?  

just sayin....

He's making another rookie mistake by being results oriented.  If the process is right that what's important.

[Ray_T 591]

13 minutes ago, nobody said:

 If the process is right that what's important.

Thats basically what I said.   you go through the process and make the best decision you can.

just because it doesnt work out doesnt mean he made a mistake.   players sometimes have bad games or have undeclared injuries none of us could have possibly known about that lead to bad results.

That does not mean he made a mistake.  It just means it didnt work out on this particular occasion.

 

[nobody 2,043]

10 minutes ago, Ray_T said:

Thats basically what I said.   you go through the process and make the best decision you can.

just because it doesnt work out doesnt mean he made a mistake.   players sometimes have bad games or have undeclared injuries none of us could have possibly known about that lead to bad results.

That does not mean he made a mistake.  It just means it didnt work out on this particular occasion.

 

I just wanted to say he was making rookie mistakes

[Ray_T 591]

2 minutes ago, nobody said:

I just wanted to say he was making rookie mistakes

well, hes a stats guy.  and stats do mean something but even for guys like him.... you make the best decision based on what is known.  you can never account for the unknowns.   if 9 times out of 10 it works out, that doesnt mean you made a mistake the one time it doesnt.  it just means the odds caught up with you on that one occasion.

[nobody 2,043]

22 minutes ago, Ray_T said:

well, hes a stats guy.  and stats do mean something but even for guys like him.... you make the best decision based on what is known.  you can never account for the unknowns.   if 9 times out of 10 it works out, that doesnt mean you made a mistake the one time it doesnt.  it just means the odds caught up with you on that one occasion.

He's definitely not a stats guy.  He might look at stats, but he's not a stats guy.

Stats guys would understand probability distribution functions and understand that if you're comparing two players, each player will have a range of outcomes, the probability of which are dependent on average and variance.  For two players, those two probability density functions will have overlap, and even though one player averages less than the other, in any given week, that player can out score another, so saying, "I hope I didn't make a mistake" is irrelevant as long as you picked the person more likely to score more points given average and variance.  Then you'll either experience positive variance or negative variance.  Some might call that luck, but it's just variance.  Good luck and bad luck is just the instantaneous experience of variance inherent to a given event.

[Ray_T 591]

1 hour ago, nobody said:

He's definitely not a stats guy.  He might look at stats, but he's not a stats guy.

Stats guys would understand probability distribution functions and understand that if you're comparing two players, each player will have a range of outcomes, the probability of which are dependent on average and variance.  For two players, those two probability density functions will have overlap, and even though one player averages less than the other, in any given week, that player can out score another, so saying, "I hope I didn't make a mistake" is irrelevant as long as you picked the person more likely to score more points given average and variance.  Then you'll either experience positive variance or negative variance.  Some might call that luck, but it's just variance.  Good luck and bad luck is just the instantaneous experience of variance inherent to a given event.

I hear what you are saying and do not disagree.

I personally like to look at stats myself.  I do this for a living with things that are not associated with fantasy football. 

that said stats do not always tell the tale.  you need to look deeper to find out what the stats mean. or what is driving the stats (or change in stats as the case may be)

The Eye test is often useful if you have the skill to look at a play and figure out why it worked (or didnt work) and whether it was a great play by an individual, or a great block that freed the individual and led to a large gain.

RB's are tricky because its not just skill of the RB that matters.  the blocking ability of the team in front of him as well as the skill of the QB also factor in because those things may determine how a defense decides to behave relative to a certain setup.

so a play with the same personnel could work with Herbert at QB but would flop with a lesser QB because the threat to beat them with a great throw is far greater with Herbert.   Thats why The chargers have had decent run production in the past with a subpar line and a good RB.   with a lesser QB I'm not sure that Ekeler produces the same way.

either way the bottom line is stats only can tell you so much.   sure there are other analyitics that can tell you the same thing I just told you but I find its more fun to actually watch the games and see it in action.    sometimes seeing for yourself will give you a different perspective that you may have lacked just by looking at the stats.

[Phil Simms 11 127]

I played Watson, no better options in a 16 team league

[weepaws 2,460]

Ten points is a lot of points in a 16 team league, 14 is the most I’ve ever played, 16 teams would be very challenging.  

Do you have limits on how many players one  can roster per position? 

[Ray_T 591]

2 hours ago, Phil Simms 11 said:

I played Watson, no better options in a 16 team league

16 teamers are a way different dynamic.   in that format you are lucky to get one or two superstars and decent depth.   and that is not even a given in this format.

anyone who is  a #1 WR on their own team is a good player to have in this format.

[Phil Simms 11 127]

7 hours ago, weepaws said:

Ten points is a lot of points in a 16 team league, 14 is the most I’ve ever played, 16 teams would be very challenging.  

Do you have limits on how many players one  can roster per position? 

No but the bench is only 5 deep to help waivers a bit. 

[weepaws 2,460]

On 9/28/2023 at 11:19 PM, weepaws said:

True dat.  And that’s why I check out FFToday for my ff help.  Now I hope Aiyuk can score more then 10 points.  If not I made a mistake and should have played Watson in my flex.  

Made it.