How would you vote? Celsius Bankruptcy Recovery

[Cdub100 3,907]

As I talked about in the Crypto thread. I had a lot of crypto in Celsius Network who filed for chapter 11 last summer. We have finally made it to the voting part of the plan and there are 4 options

The easiest one to explain is a NO vote. A no vote sends us back to the beginning and wastes more assets paying lawyers. To me, this is the worst choice

A Yes vote is more complicated. First, no matter what crypto I had in there I am only going to get BTC and ETH back. Which is fine. That was my primary holding anyway. The crypto portion I receive back with be made up of 50% BTC and 50% ETH

A Yes vote also includes a % of NewCo (the new company coming out of chap 11 under new management) common stock. NewCo is basically a mining/staking company like Marathon, Hut8, HIVE.

The breakout is as follows:

	Default	New Co Stock	Crypto Heavy
Crypto BTC/ETH	37%	19%	48%
Common Stock	30%	54%	15%
Total Recovery	67%	73%	63%

I get more of a return if I take more NewCo Stock. However, BTC/ETH could outperform the stock or vice versa. 

Looking at other mining stocks I believe NewCo will perform the same as Core Scientific and Stronghold. 

I would like to know what the geeks think.

[shadrap 228]

You seem to have a good handle on it.  I know nothing about crypto so I have nothing.

Good luck.

[WhiteWonder 2,735]

my only thought is why would I want stock in the new company? if celsius was a one off, maybe but I wouldn't trust the landscape enough, regardless of the type of company it will be.

and if I were a believer in btc and eth long term i'd rather just take those assets. I guess you could sell off your stake in the new company at some point but i'd still pass on that. 

[Voltaire 5,316]

4 hours ago, shadrap said:

You seem to have a good handle on it.  I know nothing about crypto so I have nothing.

Good luck.

This, a lot of us are clueless but some are not.  You'll want people who know more than shadrap and I to chime in. All I can do is send you my best wishes.

[crackattack 520]

24 minutes ago, shadrap said:

You seem to have a good handle on it.  I know nothing about crypto so I have nothing.

Good luck.

This

[Cdub100 3,907]

25 minutes ago, WhiteWonder said:

my only thought is why would I want stock in the new company? if celsius was a one off, maybe but I wouldn't trust the landscape enough, regardless of the type of company it will be.

and if I were a believer in btc and eth long term i'd rather just take those assets. I guess you could sell off your stake in the new company at some point but i'd still pass on that. 

I agree. If I go Crypto heavy I'm still getting 15% back in NewCo Stock.

We are coming up on the bitcoin halving and that is usually when crypto takes off and pulls mining stocks along with it. I did an analysis of 5 BTC mining stocks: Marathon, Core Scientific, Stronghold, Hut8, and HIVE. 

Marathon has performed the best out of all of them. They have been around the longest as well. 

Core Scientific and Stronghold went public at the same time in the BTC cycle. I believe NewCo will go public around the same time in the cycle before the next halving. CS and Stronghold only saw a 1.5x in price before crashing down. Whereas BTC and ETH both 4x. 

I'm leaning crypto heavy and then selling my 15% stock a couple of months after the BTC halving.