Mark Mandrews

[bmeadows 4]

Am I foolish to think that he will improve on his 1.5 point outing Sunday night. Likely may be back next week so I'm sure that won't help. Also the Ravens should be running the ball to close out games early. Thoughts?

[weepaws 3,250]

Nice logo.  

[TBayXXXVII 2,612]

1 hour ago, bmeadows said:

Am I foolish to think that he will improve on his 1.5 point outing Sunday night. Likely may be back next week so I'm sure that won't help. Also the Ravens should be running the ball to close out games early. Thoughts?

I wouldn't want to count on Andrews whether Likely is playing or not.  In the past, Andrews was Jackson's guy.  We saw the other night, that isn't the case.  Yeah, I know Jackson only threw the ball 19 times, but he only averages 27 attempts per start.  I don't envision Andrews topping 5 targets in any game this year... unless a LOT of players get hurt.

[weepaws 3,250]

First four games last yr, Andrews had nine targets , including two games that he had one target. 

[JagFan 186]

How did running to close out the game Sunday night workout for them?  Asking for a friend….

Andrews has become game script dependent.  Early in Lamar’s career Andrews was his only reliable target.  He has a true WR1 now.  Last year Andrews was so TD dependent, and I expect much of the same minus him reaching that TD total again.  When the season is over his final stat line will have him firmly in the top 10 for TEs.  You have to stick with him every week to catch those good games, and suffer through the rest.  Weepaws is about to tell us all this is why he doesn’t draft a TE until week 4 of the season!

[weepaws 3,250]

Not true , I drafted Ertz, but what I will say , that is true, is that, T Lawrence sucks , now that’s truth , and so do the Jags fans, now that’s the truth.  

[TBayXXXVII 2,612]

13 hours ago, JagFan said:

How did running to close out the game Sunday night workout for them?  Asking for a friend….

Andrews has become game script dependent.  Early in Lamar’s career Andrews was his only reliable target.  He has a true WR1 now.  Last year Andrews was so TD dependent, and I expect much of the same minus him reaching that TD total again.  When the season is over his final stat line will have him firmly in the top 10 for TEs.  You have to stick with him every week to catch those good games, and suffer through the rest.  Weepaws is about to tell us all this is why he doesn’t draft a TE until week 4 of the season!

  So true.

 

I have no problem with people starting Andrews every week and hoping he gets a TD, I just think that's being overly optimistic.  When Likely gets in there and, assuming he's healthy, I think their production flips (from last year).  I think Likely is the guy that gets double digit TD's and Andrews is getting 5 or 6.  I also think his target share drops a bit.  I don't think Jackson throws the ball more that 475 times this year.  Assuming health across the board, I think Flowers is going to get about 25% of them (like last year), let's call it 120.  I expect Bateman is going to be around 80 and D-Hop with at least 50.  Likely will probably get about 70 or 80, like Bateman.  Then you got Hill and the RB's that are good for at least 60 and that gets to around 380 (give or take), leaving us with about 100 targets for Andrews and every other player not mentioned.  So, I don't see Andrews getting around 70 targets, I think 50 is more reasonable.  I also don't see Jackson throwing for 41 TD's again... 30 (or so), seems more realistic.

In a ideal scenario where everyone is healthy and the Ravens win about 13 games like expected, I see Andrews' final numbers to be around...

55 targets, 42 receptions, 450 yards and 5 TD's.  That'll put him around 7 points per week.

If you're ok with about 2.5 receptions for around 26.5 yards every week, then have at it.  To be fair, he did only get 1 catch for 5 yards Sunday night, so this week he could get 4 for 45 to even it out.  So there is that.  I wouldn't have a problem with 8.5 from a TE... and it might be a week he gets a TD, so boom, 14+ points.

[Skinny_Bastard 158]

Didn't the same thing happened last year?  He did nothing for the first 4 weeks and then goes on to finish with 11 TDs in the final 14 weeks.

[TBayXXXVII 2,612]

1 hour ago, Skinny_Bastard said:

Didn't the same thing happened last year?  He did nothing for the first 4 weeks and then goes on to finish with 11 TDs in the final 14 weeks.

Correct.  Changes nothing I said in my post.  

Do you think Jackson is throwing 40+ TD again or do you think it's an outlier?  Do you think Jackson throws for 4000+ yards again or do you  think it's an outlier?  Do you think Jackson throws 475 passes again or do you think it's an outlier?

All of those things matter because the RB's, WR's, and TE's are directly impacted by that.  Let's take Jackson's average starts and project that to a 17-game season... that would bring us to him having a 464 attempt season where he throws for 3600 yards and 30 TD's.  You still think Andrews gets 11 TD's, 55 catches, 673 yards?  I don't.

Let's say Jackson has a season that is inline with just the last 3 years.  The attempts and yards would be similar, but an 8 TD drop bringing him to 33 TD's.  Do you think Andrews would replicates last years numbers?  I don't.

Also, there's been a steady decline in Andrews' playing time and increase in Likely's
       + Andrews - 83%, 70%, 61%
       + Likely... 40%, 44%, 60%.

[weepaws 3,250]

When you draft a te, you either need to be patient, or stream.  I’m going with Ertz again this week, own him on both teams.  Lapotra had a good game Vs Packers def. 

[TBayXXXVII 2,612]

38 minutes ago, weepaws said:

When you draft a te, you either need to be patient, or stream.  I’m going with Ertz again this week, own him on both teams.  Lapotra had a good game Vs Packers def. 

I went with, and sticking with, Goedert... until he gets hurt.  So, about 3 or 4 more weeks.

[weepaws 3,250]

2 hours ago, TBayXXXVII said:

I went with, and sticking with, Goedert... until he gets hurt.  So, about 3 or 4 more weeks.

I seeing that he might have a knee issue, doesn’t sound serious 

[TBayXXXVII 2,612]

25 minutes ago, weepaws said:

I seeing that he might have a knee issue, doesn’t sound serious 

LOL, he always has some issue.

[JagFan 186]

Weepaws and TBay, I think we’re all on the same page.  I have Warren in both leagues, and I’m great with it based on what we’ve seen so far.  Y’all know it’s been fun pushing back on each other the past several years.  I have a ton of respect for your opinions, and I know neither of you are fans of my Jags…rightfully so.  It would have to be my team that whiffs on a prematurely crowned “generational talent”.  But I’m going to stay full of hope, and denial!

[JagFan 186]

And some days I miss the Elf and his insanity!