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Maximum Overkill

Dan Campbell regrets Detroit Lions fourth-down decisions vs Eagles

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I have a theory on meathead coaches that's proving to be correct. Is Campbell a total idiot? He went for it on 4th down 5 times and got stuffed 5 times. The Eagles knew every play at the line. Did he really believe anything would change after the second time?? Unreal 

 

PHILADELPHIA - The Philadelphia Eagles kept most of their starting defense on the field.

Jalen Carter, Zack Baun, Jalyx Hunt. Reed Blankenship.

And when they stuffed Grant Stuard for no gain on a fake punt on fourth-and-2 early in the second quarter - the second of five unsuccessful tries the Detroit Lions had on fourth downs on the night - they told Stuard in no uncertain terms they knew what was coming.

“They said, ‘I watched y'all on tape,’” Stuard said in the locker room after the game. “Detroit got a history of running fakes, so I'm sure they prepared for every fake that Detroit has ran. A lot of people run that specific fake and we just felt like our guys could beat their guys and it just didn't work out.”

The Lions didn’t beat the Eagles at much of anything Sunday, losing in a showdown of NFC powers, 16-9, at Lincoln Financial Field.

The Lions went 3-for-13 on third downs and 0-for-5 on fourth downs.

Along with Stuart’s failed fake, Goff was 0-for-3 passing in fourth downs and running back Jahmyr Gibbs was stopped for no gain on a fourth-and-1 rushing play.

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People treat the whole going for it on 4th down like a black-and-white analytics issue.  Analytics does not consider game momentum, game flow, who's hot, who's not, etc.  The Lions were in a tight game where the D's were dominating - in such a game, it makes sense to play field position and take field goal points when you have the opportunity.  Conversely, the Bucs were in a shoot-out facing a fourth and 2 down by 5 near midfield in the fourth quarter when they chose to punt away to Josh Allen who had been tearing their D apart.  The "always go for it" camp is just as foolish as the "always punt" camp.

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It’s not foolish if it works, it’s only a bad call when it doesn’t.  

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If I'm going to go for it on fourth down, I'm definitely going to try it against the team known for the tush push. I'm sure that defense has no idea how to defend those situations. 

The pencil neck geek coaches know this, along with all the analytics.

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