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NAn

Member Since 16 Jun 2001
Offline Last Active Dec 04 2013 10:29 AM
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Home Field Advantage NFL Playoffs

04 December 2013 - 10:29 AM

For anyone who's interested.

 

Just been hearing/reading about home-field advantage (HFA) more with the actual NFL playoffs approaching and may have been done before here but wanted to look at HFA specific to playoffs myself, here’s what I found.

Note: these figures exclude Super Bowl as considered a neutral field, only wild card rounds through conference championship rounds included

 

2003 – 2012

PLAYOFFS OVERALL

·         Home Team won 60% of time

·         Away Team 40%

Over these 10 seasons

·         7 yrs home team won more games

·         3 yrs away teams won more games

·         1 yr it was even

 

CHAMPIONSHIP GAMES

·         Home Team won 60% of time

·         Away Team 40%

Over these 10 seasons

·         3 yrs home team won more games

·         1 yr away teams won more games

·         6 yrs it was even

 

 

1993 – 2002

PLAYOFFS OVERALL

·         Home Team won 75% of time

·         Away Team 25%

Over these 10 seasons

·         10 yrs home team won more games

·         0 yrs away teams won more games

·         0 yrs it was even

 

CHAMPIONSHIP GAMES

·         Home Team won 60% of time

·         Away Team 40%

Over these 10 seasons

·         3 yrs home team won more games

·         1 yr away teams won more games

·         6 yrs it was even

 

1983 – 1992 (note 83-89 only 10 teams made playoffs instead of current 12)

PLAYOFFS OVERALL

·         Home Team won 68.7% of time

·         Away Team won 31.3%

Over these 10 seasons

·         9 yrs home team won more games

·         0 yrs away teams won more games

·         1 yr it was even

 

CHAMPIONSHIP GAMES

·         Home Team won 70% of time

·         Away Team won 30% of time

Over these 10 seasons

·         5 yrs home team won more games

·         1 yr away teams won more games

·         4 yrs it was even

 

OBSERVATIONS

·         Though HFA in playoffs still holds true, in last decade (parity? other?) it’s not been quite as lopsided as previous 2 decades

·         HFA for Championship Games (CGs) consistent last 2 decades

·         Significant amount of seasons over last 3 decades where teams w/HFA won more games

 

Other observations?

 

 

RETURNING TO 2003 – 2012, MOST RECENT (RELEVANT?) DECADE

Assuming that most recent decade is the most relevant, I wanted to examine any specific trends so I looked closer at this decade:

·         1 seed made SB 40% (NE ’11, IND ’09, NO ’09, NE ’07, CHI ’06, SEA ’05, PHI ’04, NE ’03)

·         2 seed 20% (SF ’12, PIT ’10, PIT ’08, NE ’04)

·         3 seed 15% (IND ’06, PIT ’05, CAR ’03)

·         4 seed 15% (BAL ’12, NYG ’11, ARI ’08)

·         5-6 seed (wild cards) 10% (GB ’10, NYG ’07)

 

OBSERVATIONS

·         Only 40% of time did top seed in either conference make it to Super Bowl (SB)

·         Only 40% top seed NFC made SB

·         Only 40% top seed AFC made SB

·         Wild Card Team made SB 10% of time (GB ’10, NYG ’07)

·         Team from Wild Card Round (3-6 seed) made SB 40% of time

·         So just as likely to make SB if you play in WC round as if you have HFA throughout

·         Yes, top seed more likely to make SB than other seeds but not by a significant margin and definitely no lock

 

Other observations?