famousb 11 Posted March 22, 2006 As i was trying to sit and figure out who my top WRs were for next year, i found it was difficult to list just a top 5... last year, it finished SSmith, SMoss, HWard, CJ, and LFitz for 1-5. Holt, TO, & Moss were all out part of the year, and Harrison finished a respectable 7th... There's a ton of talent out there this year, so what's everyone's take on the top WRs for next season... Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
SmartassBoiler 0 Posted March 22, 2006 I'll assume both Palmer and Brees are healthy to start the season, Colbert will emerge as a viable secondary WR for the Panthers, and that the Raiders sign Aaron Brooks. 1) Steve Smith - He was lights out last year, and the development of a secondary target will only help him 2) Chad Johnson - Bonafide stud with a QB who perfectly fits his style of play 3) Torry Holt - Mr. Consistent should bounce back from a injury-plagued year 4) Terrell Owens - Risky without question, but has all the motivation in the world to play lights out 5) Marvin Harrison - Mr. Consistent pt. 2, and might see more balls this year with Edge gone 6) Larry Fitzgerald - Edge will help balance the offense, but Arizona will still throw plenty 7) Hines Ward - Big Ben's continued progression will only help him 8) Randy Moss - This could be the year he's undervalued, but I think the guys above him are safer bets 9) Santana Moss - The additions of Lloyd and Randle El should help keep defenses from keying on him, although his receptions will drop 10) Joe Horn - Remember this guy? Don't forget him, especially with Brees there now Boldin's not far behind. I don't think Arizona will produce 2 top 10 guys again this year, but I could be wrong. I believe Fitzgerald is a safer bet because I bet he starts to separate himself from Boldin TD-wise. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
famousb 11 Posted March 22, 2006 I'll assume both Palmer and Brees are healthy to start the season, Colbert will emerge as a viable secondary WR for the Panthers, and that the Raiders sign Aaron Brooks. 1) Steve Smith - He was lights out last year, and the development of a secondary target will only help him 2) Chad Johnson - Bonafide stud with a QB who perfectly fits his style of play 3) Torry Holt - Mr. Consistent should bounce back from a injury-plagued year 4) Terrell Owens - Risky without question, but has all the motivation in the world to play lights out 5) Marvin Harrison - Mr. Consistent pt. 2, and might see more balls this year with Edge gone 6) Larry Fitzgerald - Edge will help balance the offense, but Arizona will still throw plenty 7) Hines Ward - Big Ben's continued progression will only help him 8) Randy Moss - This could be the year he's undervalued, but I think the guys above him are safer bets 9) Santana Moss - The additions of Lloyd and Randle El should help keep defenses from keying on him, although his receptions will drop 10) Joe Horn - Remember this guy? Don't forget him, especially with Brees there now Boldin's not far behind. I don't think Arizona will produce 2 top 10 guys again this year, but I could be wrong. I believe Fitzgerald is a safer bet because I bet he starts to separate himself from Boldin TD-wise. I like the list, would you draft them in that order though? What about Javon Walker? I can see Galloway dropping out of the top 10 from last year w/ the changes going on at QB, and Glenn probably will lose a little in production w/ TO there... I'm also trying to figure out where Chambers and Plaxico fit in the mix... Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
SmartassBoiler 0 Posted March 22, 2006 I like the list, would you draft them in that order though? What about Javon Walker? I can see Galloway dropping out of the top 10 from last year w/ the changes going on at QB, and Glenn probably will lose a little in production w/ TO there... I'm also trying to figure out where Chambers and Plaxico fit in the mix... If I had to draft today, I probably would. Since Walker is returning from a torn ACL, he's probably the riskiest "top" WR out there. If the reports are good from the offseason and he looks good in preseason, I'd definitely put him just behind that group with Boldin. Plus he's being an idiot about the trade demands, too. Of course if Favre retires for some reason his fantasy value goes to hell. I'm hoping Galloway gets overvalued. I don't think anyone who follows fantasy would dream of taking him in the top 10, but he could finish top 20 again IF he stays healthy. Given his track record, I wouldn't bet on it. I don't think I'd mind him as a WR2 though. Glenn is a possible WR3 target. He'll still be the deep threat, and Owens should open things up for him. He might produce at a WR2 level. If Culpepper is healthy I have a feeling Chambers will be overvalued. I'd love to have him as a WR2, but he might soar to WR1 value in drafts this year. Plaxico? Hmm. Eli should take another step forward this year, probably making Plaxico a fairly safe WR2. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
veebs4 2 Posted March 22, 2006 I like the list, would you draft them in that order though? What about Javon Walker? I can see Galloway dropping out of the top 10 from last year w/ the changes going on at QB, and Glenn probably will lose a little in production w/ TO there... I'm also trying to figure out where Chambers and Plaxico fit in the mix... This is a great topic. Right now, to me, the tiers look like this (no particular order within the tiers): Tier 1: SSmith, TO, CJ, Holt Tier 1A: Harrison, Both Mosses, Fitz, Hines Tier 2: Horn, Boldin, Walker, D-Jax, Chambers, maybe Plax That's a lot of talent! Trick is always picking the right one. EDIT: Tier 2 could also include Wayne, Roy W. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
SmartassBoiler 0 Posted March 22, 2006 This is a great topic. Right now, to me, the tiers look like this (no particular order within the tiers): Tier 1: SSmith, TO, CJ, Holt Tier 1A: Harrison, Both Mosses, Fitz, Hines Tier 2: Horn, Boldin, Walker, D-Jax, Chambers, maybe Plax That's a lot of talent! Trick is always picking the right one. Good call on D-Jax, almost forgot about him. He was impressive without K-Rob there last season and showed improved hands. I'd put him just outside that top tier as well. 2 more WRs I didn't touch on are Roy Williams and Andre Johnson, everyone's golden boys last year. I expect good things from Roy this year...with his talent in Martz's offense he could soar to WR1 production while coming at a WR2 price. Andre Johnson could fall quite a bit and provide WR2 value at a WR3 price depending on the new coaching staff. I expect the new scheme to utilize him more, specifically deep down the field where he can excel. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Fumbleweed 426 Posted March 22, 2006 As i was trying to sit and figure out who my top WRs were for next year, i found it was difficult to list just a top 5...last year, it finished SSmith, SMoss, HWard, CJ, and LFitz for 1-5. Holt, TO, & Moss were all out part of the year, and Harrison finished a respectable 7th... There's a ton of talent out there this year, so what's everyone's take on the top WRs for next season... Just out of curiosity, what kind of scoring system allowed Hines Ward to finish 3rd?? I'm confused by that one. Mine are as follows as of right now: 1. Steve Smith 2. Torry Holt 3. Chad Johnson 4. Terrell Owens 5. Marvin Harrison 6. Randy Moss 7. Larry Fitzgerald 8. Chris Chambers 9. Darrell Jackson 10. Anquan Boldin 11. Hines Ward 12. Reggie Wayne 13. Santana Moss Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
famousb 11 Posted March 22, 2006 Good call on D-Jax, almost forgot about him. He was impressive without K-Rob there last season and showed improved hands. I'd put him just outside that top tier as well. yeah, completely overlooked D-Jax. I pretty much agree with your assessments of Glenn & Galloway. Any love for a Braylon Edwards coming back from injury? Especially w/ a hopefully improved supporting cast?? JSmith isn't in the casket yet, can you imagine him falling to you as a WR3/4?? I'll take his 80 yds as a bye-week fill-in anyday... 2 more WRs I didn't touch on are Roy Williams and Andre Johnson, everyone's golden boys last year. I expect good things from Roy this year...with his talent in Martz's offense he could soar to WR1 production while coming at a WR2 price. Andre Johnson could fall quite a bit and provide WR2 value at a WR3 price depending on the new coaching staff. I expect the new scheme to utilize him more, specifically deep down the field where he can excel. I like Roy alot - especially in a Martz offense, but i'm still worried that he hasn't seemed to knock the nagging injury bug... Just out of curiosity, what kind of scoring system allowed Hines Ward to finish 3rd?? I'm confused by that one. Mine are as follows as of right now: 1. Steve Smith 2. Torry Holt 3. Chad Johnson 4. Terrell Owens 5. Marvin Harrison 6. Randy Moss 7. Larry Fitzgerald 8. Chris Chambers 9. Darrell Jackson 10. Anquan Boldin 11. Hines Ward 12. Reggie Wayne 13. Santana Moss Doh!! you're right, i was looking at FULL year last year stats (i hate the way CBS adds in playoff weeks). Rough estimation, w/o playoff #s he's probably around 8th or so... which would have put Harrison in the top 5 slightly ahead of Galloway i believe. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
SmartassBoiler 0 Posted March 22, 2006 I like Roy alot - especially in a Martz offense, but i'm still worried that he hasn't seemed to knock the nagging injury bug... Could be the lack of conditioning or his poor work ethic spilling over into the offseason. Part of the reason he stayed out so long last year might have been his inability to trust Harrington. It's a concern, but hopefully something the new blue collar coaching staff can take care of. Just out of curiosity, what kind of scoring system allowed Hines Ward to finish 3rd?? I'm confused by that one. Mine are as follows as of right now: 11. Hines Ward I have to ask about Ward - why at 11? Big Ben's improvement last year helped him a lot and he had numerous big games. He also missed some time with a nagging injury, then lost stats when Big Ben got hurt. It's always impossible to expect 16 games of consistency since anything can happen (and often does) during the regular season, but Ward was a bonafide stud when he and Big Ben were both healthy last year. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Larry David 20 Posted March 22, 2006 I knew Chambers wasn't going to get his props in this thread. The guy was a top 10 receiver last year with Gus Frerotte and Sage Rosenfels throwing to him!!!! How does he not remain in the top 10 with Culpepper throwing to him? Even if Culpepper isn't 100% he's still better than Frerotte/Rosenfels/Fiedler or any of the other clowns who haven't prevented Chambers from putting up great numbers over the past few years. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
famousb 11 Posted March 22, 2006 I knew Chambers wasn't going to get his props in this thread. The guy was a top 10 receiver last year with Gus Frerotte and Sage Rosenfels throwing to him!!!! How does he not remain in the top 10 with Culpepper throwing to him? Even if Culpepper isn't 100% he's still better than Frerotte/Rosenfels/Fiedler or any of the other clowns who haven't prevented Chambers from putting up great numbers over the past few years. Cause 1 guy didn't have him in the top 10 you get all bent out of shape? Fumbleweed put him in at #8 - right about where he finished last year, weebs4 put him in tier 2 - which isn't bad either. I could see him having a very solid #1 WR year, but you also have to consider Holt, RMoss, TO and even JWalker could easily come back into the top 10 next year. What's your top 10 or so?? Figure out where he fits in. The thought of the thread isn't saying Chambers suxors, but more that there is such an abundance of talent out there that it's more difficult than usual to come up even w/ a consensus top ten... Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Fumbleweed 426 Posted March 22, 2006 I have to ask about Ward - why at 11? Big Ben's improvement last year helped him a lot and he had numerous big games. He also missed some time with a nagging injury, then lost stats when Big Ben got hurt. It's always impossible to expect 16 games of consistency since anything can happen (and often does) during the regular season, but Ward was a bonafide stud when he and Big Ben were both healthy last year. Fair question. Here's my response: Hines Ward is going to face numerous double teams next year as of now because there really isn't a big receiving threat opposite him. Hines is strong enough to work his way through double teams some of the time, but I do think it will cut into his numbers. Also, with the exception of 2002, his yardage totals have never been top ten for a wide receiver. He has recorded double digit TDs three of the last four seasons, which is very impressive, but monster yardage totals have not been his trademark. I think the #11 ranking is still respectful......I am just of the opinion that he will get doubled a lot, like I said. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Raider 84 29 Posted March 22, 2006 1. Holt 2. Chad 3. Smith 4. Marvin 5. Fitz 6. TO 7. Moss 8. Chambers 9. Boldin 10. D Jax Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
SmartassBoiler 0 Posted March 23, 2006 Fair question. Here's my response: Hines Ward is going to face numerous double teams next year as of now because there really isn't a big receiving threat opposite him. Hines is strong enough to work his way through double teams some of the time, but I do think it will cut into his numbers. Also, with the exception of 2002, his yardage totals have never been top ten for a wide receiver. He has recorded double digit TDs three of the last four seasons, which is very impressive, but monster yardage totals have not been his trademark. I think the #11 ranking is still respectful......I am just of the opinion that he will get doubled a lot, like I said. Honest question, you think teams would give whoever lines up beside him next year less respect than Randle El? Sure Randle El was fast, but what defensive coordinator was actually scared of him as a WR? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Fumbleweed 426 Posted March 23, 2006 Honest question, you think teams would give whoever lines up beside him next year less respect than Randle El? Sure Randle El was fast, but what defensive coordinator was actually scared of him as a WR? As it stands now, that receiver would be Cedrick Wilson, so I'd say yes, they will give him less respect. Someone else might command more respect than Randle-El, but as of now, that someone else does not exist. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Miller_Time_21 0 Posted March 23, 2006 Re-Draft: Smith CJ TO Holt Fitz Harrison Chambers R. Moss Boldin Ward Dynasty: CJ Fitz S. Smith Holt TO R. Moss Boldin Chambers Harrison Edwards Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Crestwood 0 Posted March 23, 2006 hey, you guys are forgetting somebody good who didnt play last year... todd pinkston Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
waterwolves 0 Posted March 23, 2006 I am sorry but Saunders is going to make a huge difference for the Skins offense. I am not saying S. moss will be as good as he was last year because they are deep at WR. Moss will be top 7 though. Did you see what he did with some of those screen passes!!!!!!! He was doubled the whole second half of the year. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
fightklub 0 Posted March 23, 2006 Javon Walker when healthy... Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
famousb 11 Posted March 23, 2006 it seems like the consensus top 3 are almost definitely SSmith, CJ and Holt (in no particular order), and with TO probably being 4th overrall in redraft leagues... but from there on out, it seems like there's alot of guys that can float in-and-out of the 5-10 spots... with LFitz always being closer to 5... and RMoss actually floating closer to the middle of the range. interesting stuff. i'm not certain since i haven't seen ADPs yet, but i'm almost willing to say that if i got a late 1st rd pick, i may go RB-WR-WR-RB in the draft since after the first ten RBs it seems to get a little cloudier due to RBBC, but if you could get one of those top 4 WRs, plus possibly another one of the next 10 (if they fall to you) you could have a strong team even w/o two 'stud' rbs... Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
veebs4 2 Posted March 23, 2006 Right now, the ADPs are worthless (using all mocks from 2/2 through today, the Antsports ADPs are based on something between 3 and 9 drafts). After the NFL draft, I'm betting some more mock drafts will happen, and some more valid ADP data will be available. I agree with famousb, though, about strategy if we had to draft today from a late position. There is somewhat of a consensus about the top 3-4 WRs, which will probably result in their ADPs near the beginning and middle of Round 2. Top 10 will probably be exhausted by the end of Round 3. As always with WR, picking value after round 3 for your WR2/3 will be the trick to separating your team from the others (luck + research). FYI, top 15 ADP's for WRs from Antsports from 2/2 through today (12-team, HP, Flex Lineup TE required). As shown, you can see that major changes to this data will happen before the draft. <Sorry about the format of the list.... can't lineup columns> Name ADP High Low STDEV # drafts 1. Steve Smith WR CAR 2.01.88 1.06 2.08 04.94 8 2. Torry Holt WR STL 2.03.38 1.11 2.09 03.58 8 3. Terrell Owens WR PHI 2.06.14 1.11 3.02 05.61 7 4. Randy Moss WR OAK 2.08.83 2.02 3.01 04.31 6 5. Larry Fitzgerald WR ARI 2.10.88 2.07 3.03 02.85 8 6. Chad Johnson WR CIN 2.11.88 2.06 3.06 03.48 8 7. Marvin Harrison WR IND 2.12.33 2.06 3.05 04.08 6 8. Anquan Boldin WR ARI 3.06.13 3.04 3.10 02.03 8 9. Hines Ward WR PIT 3.09.50 3.03 4.01 03.67 6 10. Reggie Wayne WR IND 3.12.29 3.05 4.07 05.09 7 11. Darrell Jackson WR SEA 4.01.50 3.09 4.07 03.70 8 12. Santana Moss WR WAS 4.03.88 3.01 5.12 10.47 8 13. Andre Johnson WR HOU 4.04.83 3.06 5.01 07.19 6 14. Roy Williams WR DET 4.05.40 4.02 4.12 04.10 5 15. Chris Chambers WR MIA 4.06.38 3.10 5.06 06.65 8 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
goodwj 0 Posted March 23, 2006 Reggie wayne should be in the top 20 at least so much talent, good qb, good wr on the other side, 1 less running back, and one hungry manning. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
B.M.F. 0 Posted March 23, 2006 my two sleeper picks at wr this year.... lee evans mark clayton Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
