Observing the June Mock - and other drafts

[FantasyKing 4]

While watching the drafts going on now I'm realizing, this is probably going to be the toughest fantasy year, draftwise for running backs, in recent history. There are so many players right now who are basically unproven, that are now in favorable or new situations. And a lot of these guys are being drafted VERY early in the drafts, these are players who could make/break your seasons.

 

Some examples from June mock -

 

1.09- RB Ronnie Brown, Mia. - Ok he is somewhat proven and I think this is a little higher than where he will go in most drafts - but can he handle the load all by himself and stay healthy? Will Culpepper open it up enough to give him room to run?

 

1.10- RB Carnell 'Cadillac' Williams, TB - Also proven, but again he only did it one year and he got somewhat banged up in doing so. Can he handle another year of getting the ball so many times?

 

To me it is very strange that many teams will be going into the 2006 season with the above RBs as their #1 RBs. It is very high risk/high reward in my opinion.

 

2.04- RB Jamal Lewis, Balt.

2.06- RB Willis McGahee, Buf.

 

While these players have proven they can be fantasy studs, for the most part they look absolutely awful last year and called into question their ability to return to their old self. If they start out with a couple of 70 yard 0 TD games, how long do you stick with them in your starting lineup?

 

2.11- RB Julius Jones, Dal.

 

Again, great situation but health concerns and Marion Barber make you worry a bit about JJ. You know he can do it, but is he gonna be there in weeks 8-14 when you need him?

 

3.01- RB Kevin Jones, Det.

 

Is the new QB going situation going to help Jones, who also had injury concerns last year. All of these young guys getting injuries where they miss multiple games is starting to scare me.

 

Some other picks...

 

3.06- RB Tatum Bell, Den.

3.07- RB Willie Parker, Pit.

3.08- RB Warrick Dunn, Atl.

\3.12- RB Chester Taylor, Min

4.07- RB DeShaun Foster, Car.

4.09- RB Reggie Bush, NO

4.10- RB Deuce McAllister, NO

4.12- RB Joseph Addai, Indy

 

Bush, Addai, Taylor - all pretty much unproven in the NFL as primary starter for 16 weeks. Bell - any Denver RB scares me ....period. Willie Parker seems to be in a great situation, but again has only proven one year he can do it. Dunn you know is pretty solid every year, but he's getting up there in age. Foster, a huge injury risk with great potential. Bush/McAllister and Addai/Rhodes - who knows how that is going to turn out.

 

I don't know - to me it just seems as if there are so many unknowns at RBs this year that you really have to do your homework to have a great draft.

 

Also the previous fantasy stud Ahman Green is still lingering around as a starter and fell all the way into the 5th round of the June Mock - a very nice pickup in my opinion.

 

Not to mention the Tennesse situation, Chris Brown, White and Henry - how is that going to pan out.

 

All these RBs make you value guys like Alexander, Johnson, Tomlinson, even more this year. A guy you can fill in at starter and not worry about.

[listen2me 23 1,871]

While watching the drafts going on now I'm realizing, this is probably going to be the toughest fantasy year, draftwise for running backs, in recent history. There are so many players right now who are basically unproven, that are now in favorable or new situations. And a lot of these guys are being drafted VERY early in the drafts, these are players who could make/break your seasons.

 

Some examples from June mock -

 

1.09- RB Ronnie Brown, Mia. - Ok he is somewhat proven and I think this is a little higher than where he will go in most drafts - but can he handle the load all by himself and stay healthy? Will Culpepper open it up enough to give him room to run?

 

1.10- RB Carnell 'Cadillac' Williams, TB - Also proven, but again he only did it one year and he got somewhat banged up in doing so. Can he handle another year of getting the ball so many times?

 

To me it is very strange that many teams will be going into the 2006 season with the above RBs as their #1 RBs. It is very high risk/high reward in my opinion.

 

2.04- RB Jamal Lewis, Balt.

2.06- RB Willis McGahee, Buf.

 

While these players have proven they can be fantasy studs, for the most part they look absolutely awful last year and called into question their ability to return to their old self. If they start out with a couple of 70 yard 0 TD games, how long do you stick with them in your starting lineup?

 

2.11- RB Julius Jones, Dal.

 

Again, great situation but health concerns and Marion Barber make you worry a bit about JJ. You know he can do it, but is he gonna be there in weeks 8-14 when you need him?

 

3.01- RB Kevin Jones, Det.

 

Is the new QB going situation going to help Jones, who also had injury concerns last year. All of these young guys getting injuries where they miss multiple games is starting to scare me.

 

Some other picks...

 

3.06- RB Tatum Bell, Den.

3.07- RB Willie Parker, Pit.

3.08- RB Warrick Dunn, Atl.

\3.12- RB Chester Taylor, Min

4.07- RB DeShaun Foster, Car.

4.09- RB Reggie Bush, NO

4.10- RB Deuce McAllister, NO

4.12- RB Joseph Addai, Indy

 

Bush, Addai, Taylor - all pretty much unproven in the NFL as primary starter for 16 weeks. Bell - any Denver RB scares me ....period. Willie Parker seems to be in a great situation, but again has only proven one year he can do it. Dunn you know is pretty solid every year, but he's getting up there in age. Foster, a huge injury risk with great potential. Bush/McAllister and Addai/Rhodes - who knows how that is going to turn out.

 

I don't know - to me it just seems as if there are so many unknowns at RBs this year that you really have to do your homework to have a great draft.

 

Also the previous fantasy stud Ahman Green is still lingering around as a starter and fell all the way into the 5th round of the June Mock - a very nice pickup in my opinion.

 

Not to mention the Tennesse situation, Chris Brown, White and Henry - how is that going to pan out.

 

All these RBs make you value guys like Alexander, Johnson, Tomlinson, even more this year. A guy you can fill in at starter and not worry about.

 

I hear ya..

[remote controller 143]

While watching the drafts going on now I'm realizing, this is probably going to be the toughest fantasy year, draftwise for running backs, in recent history. There are so many players right now who are basically unproven, that are now in favorable or new situations. And a lot of these guys are being drafted VERY early in the drafts, these are players who could make/break your seasons.

 

Some examples from June mock -

 

1.09- RB Ronnie Brown, Mia. - Ok he is somewhat proven and I think this is a little higher than where he will go in most drafts - but can he handle the load all by himself and stay healthy? Will Culpepper open it up enough to give him room to run?

 

1.10- RB Carnell 'Cadillac' Williams, TB - Also proven, but again he only did it one year and he got somewhat banged up in doing so. Can he handle another year of getting the ball so many times?

 

To me it is very strange that many teams will be going into the 2006 season with the above RBs as their #1 RBs. It is very high risk/high reward in my opinion.

 

2.04- RB Jamal Lewis, Balt.

2.06- RB Willis McGahee, Buf.

 

While these players have proven they can be fantasy studs, for the most part they look absolutely awful last year and called into question their ability to return to their old self. If they start out with a couple of 70 yard 0 TD games, how long do you stick with them in your starting lineup?

 

2.11- RB Julius Jones, Dal.

 

Again, great situation but health concerns and Marion Barber make you worry a bit about JJ. You know he can do it, but is he gonna be there in weeks 8-14 when you need him?

 

3.01- RB Kevin Jones, Det.

 

Is the new QB going situation going to help Jones, who also had injury concerns last year. All of these young guys getting injuries where they miss multiple games is starting to scare me.

 

Some other picks...

 

3.06- RB Tatum Bell, Den.

3.07- RB Willie Parker, Pit.

3.08- RB Warrick Dunn, Atl.

\3.12- RB Chester Taylor, Min

4.07- RB DeShaun Foster, Car.

4.09- RB Reggie Bush, NO

4.10- RB Deuce McAllister, NO

4.12- RB Joseph Addai, Indy

 

Bush, Addai, Taylor - all pretty much unproven in the NFL as primary starter for 16 weeks. Bell - any Denver RB scares me ....period. Willie Parker seems to be in a great situation, but again has only proven one year he can do it. Dunn you know is pretty solid every year, but he's getting up there in age. Foster, a huge injury risk with great potential. Bush/McAllister and Addai/Rhodes - who knows how that is going to turn out.

 

I don't know - to me it just seems as if there are so many unknowns at RBs this year that you really have to do your homework to have a great draft.

 

Also the previous fantasy stud Ahman Green is still lingering around as a starter and fell all the way into the 5th round of the June Mock - a very nice pickup in my opinion.

 

Not to mention the Tennesse situation, Chris Brown, White and Henry - how is that going to pan out.

 

All these RBs make you value guys like Alexander, Johnson, Tomlinson, even more this year. A guy you can fill in at starter and not worry about.

Brown and caddy really don't scare me, and I like them in the first round or the corner. The big suprise to me was Rudi falling so far. Peyton dropping to the mid first, and the 2nd qb not falling until the late 4th, seem to back up your premise. People are trying harder than ever to cover their tracks on their backs.

 

I am pleased ot have gotten Tiki at 1.05, and Westbrook at 2.08.

[ggroovy17 0]

I think the Addai, Rhodes situation will pan out before most drafts take place. I think Addai will win out that job and then would push him up to the 3rd, maybe late 2nd round.

[listen2me 23 1,871]

I think the Addai, Rhodes situation will pan out before most drafts take place. I think Addai will win out that job and then would push him up to the 3rd, maybe late 2nd round.

 

I agree here for the most part....

 

I seem to be higher on Addai than most people on the board...

[ggroovy17 0]

Our league we get to keep one player from last year and can only keep him once. I have Shaun Alexander going into this year so taking a chance on a player like Addai isn't that bad. Plus, Addai will be given every opportunity to win that job not only this year but for years to come.

[sharkie22 0]

I think another part to the puzzle is that QB's and WR's also bring a little less certainty than in the recent past too. Even though the premium on RB's is always high, I think it may be even higher because of the risk with taking a WR or stud QB as early as the third and fourth rounds when there's not that reliable second tier of receivers and not as much to differentiate QB's statistically.

 

With Edge out of Indy there are some concerns with Peyton Manning in the first round, Carson Palmers injury makes him a little iffy, McNabb has almost no one to throw to and less in the way of RB's to help him, between Culpeppers injury and how he played last season he's a big question. Randy Moss has had two injury plagued sub par (for him) seasons, Wards receptions have dropped enough to definitely drop him from upper tier, TO is TO (I still find it hard to believe he actually got booted in mid season), considering age and supporting cast for Galloway and S Moss it's improbable they will repeat last years success, etc.

 

I think the uncertainty with these positions takes away a bit of the safety net that comes with the support of a monster QB or WR when a lineup is thin at RB. Is it better to possibly reach a little and grab lots of backs early than to risk RB depth and still not get a difference maker at the other positions? So far it looks like RB's are closer to the answer.

[FantasyKing 4]

I agree here for the most part....

 

I seem to be higher on Addai than most people on the board...

 

 

You guys are probably right about Addai - but still, that is just adding to the list of unproven starting RBs this year. Will he be the next Edgerrin James or the next JJ Arrington.

 

I think another part to the puzzle is that QB's and WR's also bring a little less certainty than in the recent past too. Even though the premium on RB's is always high, I think it may be even higher because of the risk with taking a WR or stud QB as early as the third and fourth rounds when there's not that reliable second tier of receivers and not as much to differentiate QB's statistically.

 

With Edge out of Indy there are some concerns with Peyton Manning in the first round, Carson Palmers injury makes him a little iffy, McNabb has almost no one to throw to and less in the way of RB's to help him, between Culpeppers injury and how he played last season he's a big question. Randy Moss has had two injury plagued sub par (for him) seasons, Wards receptions have dropped enough to definitely drop him from upper tier, TO is TO (I still find it hard to believe he actually got booted in mid season), considering age and supporting cast for Galloway and S Moss it's improbable they will repeat last years success, etc.

 

I think the uncertainty with these positions takes away a bit of the safety net that comes with the support of a monster QB or WR when a lineup is thin at RB. Is it better to possibly reach a little and grab lots of backs early than to risk RB depth and still not get a difference maker at the other positions? So far it looks like RB's are closer to the answer.

 

 

 

Good points here as well - it seems not only RBs but drafting your entire team is not as clear cut as it has been in the past. I've always had certain players targeted such as thinking ok I can get Reggie Wayne in the 5th round last year, but this year - picks will be a lot harder to predict from top to bottom.