The Peyton question revisted

[Apu Nahasapeemapetilon 0]

Ran some mocks. Looks like drafting between 9-12 in a redraft league you can have either of these teams (or something similar). On e has Peyton, one goes RB/RB. Which of these two teams looks better to you? I guess they seem pretty even to me.

 

1. Caddy Williams

2. Peyton Manning

3. Reggie Wayne

4. Plaxico Burress

5. Curtis Martin

6. Ahman Green

 

1. Caddy Williams

2. Brian Westbrook

3. Reggie Wyane

4. Plaxico Burress

5. Matt Hassellback

6. Ahman Green

 

 

It boils down to "will Manning and the equivilent of CMart have better numbers than the equivilent of Hass and Westbrook" ?

[famousb 11]

firstly, i wouldn't want Caddy & Westy as my 1-2 punch for RBs...

not that i don't think either is capable of putting up top 5 numbers this year if healthy, but that's the question... will they both stay healthy for 16 games... If they did stay healthy you could be great though.

 

assuming you drafted 9th, that would put Manning at 2.04, which i think is a good value pick. I got him at 2.07 in one mock and was completely surprised. I think at 2.06 or later you almost HAVE to draft Manning as a defensive move so that the guys that have the top 3 (and second top 3) RBs don't have a chance for the #1 RB and #1 QB...

[t.j 35]

I'd much rather have Westbrook/Hasselbeck then Martin/Manning.

 

But personally, if I had picked Manning in round 2, I wouldn't go WR in both rounds 3 and 4, I'd be targeting a RB in round 3, or in round 4 at the latest. That said, I think Manning is decent value in the early second round, but I probably wouldn't take him unless it was the late second and I had some idea of what RB I could get in the 3rd.

[GobbleDog 996]

So the question is Manning & CMart vs. Hasselbeck & Westbrook ?

 

Tough call. I'd probably take Hass & Westbrook... because CMart is risky crap.

[Leonard Henry -2 Yds 0]

With all the runningback question marks this season, I'm not touching any QB until I've drafted atleast ten runningbacks in the first eleven or twelve rounds. Why take Manning in the 2nd round when you can wait and draft someone like Charlie Frye in the 15th? At that ADP, Frye is "pure value." If Manning is still around in the late 11th round in my league, I might opt to take a gamble and pass on guys i have my sights on like LeBrandon Toefield and Maurice Hicks. I mean, who knows? Sometimes the risks outweigh the benefits.

 

HTH

[Apu Nahasapeemapetilon 0]

I'd much rather have Westbrook/Hasselbeck then Martin/Manning.

 

But personally, if I had picked Manning in round 2, I wouldn't go WR in both rounds 3 and 4, I'd be targeting a RB in round 3, or in round 4 at the latest. That said, I think Manning is decent value in the early second round, but I probably wouldn't take him unless it was the late second and I had some idea of what RB I could get in the 3rd.

 

That's the point...the RBs left were not worthy of drafting. I thought a Lewis or Dunn would be there and they were already gone.

 

With all the runningback question marks this season, I'm not touching any QB until I've drafted atleast ten runningbacks in the first eleven or twelve rounds. Why take Manning in the 2nd round when you can wait and draft someone like Charlie Frye in the 15th? At that ADP, Frye is "pure value." If Manning is still around in the late 11th round in my league, I might opt to take a gamble and pass on guys i have my sights on like LeBrandon Toefield and Maurice Hicks. I mean, who knows? Sometimes the risks outweigh the benefits.

 

HTH

 

 

I fail to understand the humor or point of your post. But thanks for using all your smarts to add to the discussion

[TD Ryan2 316]

I recommend you look at THIS THREAD (link).

 

A few of our seasoned posters (Megla, Da Bomb) have done some nice work and shown that taking Manning early IS a winning proposition.

 

After grinding out lots of numbers, projections, and stats, Da Bomb comes to this conclusion (and I agree with him):

 

... my point, or at least what all my above data seems to point to, is that -- outside of the top 5 RBs or so, who still rule the day in fantasy football -- those stud QBs, WRs, and TEs are worth way more than anyone realizes. but people are stuck on taking two RBs to start, so they are taking the 18th best RB in the second round when they could get the #1 TE or the #5 WR, both of whom are top 15 values historically while the 18th best RB is more like top 50. i thought it was astonishing.

 

[falafel22 0]

I recommend you look at THIS THREAD (link).

 

A few of our seasoned posters (Megla, Da Bomb) have done some nice work and shown that taking Manning early IS a winning proposition.

 

After grinding out lots of numbers, projections, and stats, Da Bomb comes to this conclusion (and I agree with him):

 

I have one stead fast rule in fantasy football and I will stick with this rule til the day I retire from this game: I will not take a QB until the 6th round or later. Sure, Manning is as close to a guarantee to put up 30 or more TD's, but you can always find a QB later who will throw 20-25 TD's or you can draft two solid QB's and play the matchup game. The last 6 champions in my league did not have a QB on their roster that was drafted in first three rounds.

 

I build my team through the draft with RB's and WR's and by the time rounds 6-8 come along, thats when I start looking for my QB. I'm not advocating waiting forever or else you'll end up with David Carr as your QB, but if you draft one in rounds 6-8, I'll be more than happy with a Kurt Warner or Jake Delhomme to lead my stable of good backs and receivers.

 

Just look at mocks everywhere, the teams who generally look the most solid usually have a QB that was taken outside of the top 3 or 4 rounds. The ones with Peyton usually have a major hole at RB2 or WR1 or sometimes both.

[VaTerp 0]

I recommend you look at THIS THREAD (link).

 

A few of our seasoned posters (Megla, Da Bomb) have done some nice work and shown that taking Manning early IS a winning proposition.

 

After grinding out lots of numbers, projections, and stats, Da Bomb comes to this conclusion (and I agree with him):

 

There is some excellent info in that thread. The thing about taking Manning or a top Wr early is that it puts more preessure on you to hit with the RB's you take in the 3rd or 4th. Every year there will be Rb's taking in those rounds who outperform the 1st and 2nd round picks. (I.e Tiki or C-Mart in 04' or maybe T. Jones M. Anderson from last year) You just have to hope that you find a RB who can consistently give you decent numbers from that spot.

 

But, if you look at the sats, there is still a bigger discrepancy between the elite Rb's and the rest of the group than at any other position. Its just the nature of the NFL. That is why people are so wed to the idea of taking RB's early. The scarcity of the elite backs make people take good but not elite Rb's too early in hopes of competing w/ the elites.

 

So I agree that most people dont realize the value of the elite players at the QB and Wr position but going RB, Rb just falls into more people's comfort levels.

[famousb 11]

I have one stead fast rule in fantasy football and I will stick with this rule til the day I retire from this game: I will not take a QB until the 6th round or later. Sure, Manning is as close to a guarantee to put up 30 or more TD's, but you can always find a QB later who will throw 20-25 TD's or you can draft two solid QB's and play the matchup game. The last 6 champions in my league did not have a QB on their roster that was drafted in first three rounds.

 

I build my team through the draft with RB's and WR's and by the time rounds 6-8 come along, thats when I start looking for my QB. I'm not advocating waiting forever or else you'll end up with David Carr as your QB, but if you draft one in rounds 6-8, I'll be more than happy with a Kurt Warner or Jake Delhomme to lead my stable of good backs and receivers.

 

Just look at mocks everywhere, the teams who generally look the most solid usually have a QB that was taken outside of the top 3 or 4 rounds. The ones with Peyton usually have a major hole at RB2 or WR1 or sometimes both.

 

well said. Peyton is a good value, and will win games for you, but i play to win championships and i agree, there haven't been too many championships won in any of my leagues w/ Peyton as QB...

[Apu Nahasapeemapetilon 0]

I recommend you look at THIS THREAD (link).

 

A few of our seasoned posters (Megla, Da Bomb) have done some nice work and shown that taking Manning early IS a winning proposition.

 

After grinding out lots of numbers, projections, and stats, Da Bomb comes to this conclusion (and I agree with him):

 

 

Thanks TDR2. Looks like some good analysis

[TD Ryan2 316]

Last year I had (2) Fantasy Teams.

On one, I took Manning early.

On the other, I "platooned" Delhomme/Plummer.

 

Interestingly enough, neither philosophy was working that well early on.

Manning was atrocious early on last year.

Delhomme/Plummer were equally inept.

 

 

However, things with Manning balanced out. After "struggling" (fantasywise) early on, Manning came around. Delhomme/Plummer never really did.

 

What I'm hearing from the "Don't take Manning" crowd is along the lines of:

"I NEVER take a QB early and I NEVER will"

"going RB-RB is more in people's comfort level"

 

and really, this shouldn't be about "comfort level" or stubborn absolutes. It's about numbers, %'s, and odds.

Again, I generally like to wait on a QB too. But I will not stick to absolutes when drafting; I will allow myself to be flexible... and if/when I'm in the late 1st round and I have to choose between a J Lewis/SJax/DDavis type RB and a Manning/Owens type non-RB, I'm taking the elite non-RB.

 

 

Here's your ADPs before last year's fantasy season (circa August, from Antsports):

look at all the RB's people reach for... and it happens every year.

Again, there no doubt the RB's are king in FFball; but there's also no doubt that many owners throw ther ffball seasons away because they reach for RBs that are unproven&unknown commodities.

 

August 2005 ADPs (last year, pre season):

1. LaDainian Tomlinson RB SDC 1.01.24 1.01

2. Shaun Alexander RB SEA 1.02.75 1.01

3. Priest Holmes RB KCC 1.03.40 1.01

4. Edgerrin James RB IND 1.04.93 1.02

5. Peyton Manning QB IND 1.05.80 1.01

6. Deuce McAllister RB NOS 1.06.10 1.03

7. Willis McGahee RB BUF 1.06.69 1.04

8. Domanick Davis RB HOU 1.07.14 1.02

9. Clinton Portis RB WAS 1.09.71 1.03

10. Kevin Jones RB DET 1.11.49 1.06

11. Jamal Lewis RB BAL 1.11.59 1.04

12. Randy Moss WR OAK 1.11.68 1.04

13. Tiki Barber RB NYG 2.02.03 1.08

14. Julius Jones RB DAL 2.02.62 1.06

15. Corey Dillon RB NEP 2.03.18 1.10

16. Ahman Green RB GBP 2.04.65 1.06

17. Terrell Owens WR PHI 2.06.27 1.10

18. Rudi Johnson RB CIN 2.06.52 1.12

19. Torry Holt WR STL 2.07.89 1.11

20. Daunte Culpepper QB MIN 2.08

21. Chad Johnson WR CIN 2.09

22. Brian Westbrook RB PHI 2.09

23. Marvin Harrison WR IND 2.10

24. LaMont Jordan RB OAK 2.11

25. Steven Jackson RB STL 2.11

26. Curtis Martin RB NYJ 3.02

27. Tatum Bell RB DEN 3.04

28. Joe Horn WR NOS 3.04

29. Javon Walker WR GBP 3.05

30. Tony Gonzalez TE KCC 3.06

31. Andre Johnson WR HOU 3.08

32. Donovan McNabb QB PHI 3.09

33. Reggie Wayne WR IND 3.11.

[famousb 11]

Last year I had (2) Fantasy Teams.

On one, I took Manning early.

On the other, I "platooned" Delhomme/Plummer.

 

Interestingly enough, neither philosophy was working that well early on.

Manning was atrocious early on last year.

Delhomme/Plummer were equally inept.

However, things with Manning balanced out. After "struggling" (fantasywise) early on, Manning came around. Delhomme/Plummer never really did.

 

What I'm hearing from the "Don't take Manning" crowd is along the lines of:

"I NEVER take a QB early and I NEVER will"

"going RB-RB is more in people's comfort level"

 

and really, this shouldn't be about "comfort level" or stubborn absolutes. It's about numbers, %'s, and odds.

Again, I generally like to wait on a QB too. But I will not stick to absolutes when drafting; I will allow myself to be flexible... and if/when I'm in the late 1st round and I have to choose between a J Lewis/SJax/DDavis type RB and a Manning/Owens type non-RB, I'm taking the elite non-RB.

Here's your ADPs before last year's fantasy season (circa August, from Antsports):

look at all the RB's people reach for... and it happens every year.

Again, there no doubt the RB's are king in FFball; but there's also no doubt that many owners throw ther ffball seasons away because they reach for RBs that are unproven&unknown commodities.

 

personally, i'm not a die-hard "gotta go RB-RB" kind of guy, i'm just not a huge fan of spending a 1st rounder on a QB - even if he's head and shoulders above the rest... If he comes to me mid-2nd, i'll probably take him.

Also, especially this year, I would hardly EVAH take a WR in the first due to the fluctuation in who the actual #1 WR will be. Granted, there are guys that are "locks" to be in the top 5 (Harrison, Holt, CJ, etc...) and then there are guys that sneak in from no where (who generally play for CAR in the year that they do it ). But there are SO many that have top 10 potential, i don't mind waiting til at least the 2nd to grab one.

However, if i'm drafting 10-12, i'm already feeling shaky about my first pick because i'm probably staring at RBrown, Caddy, or Willis as the best available RB, unless someone before me grabs Peyton or a WR (if Rudi, Lamont or SJax drops to me, i'm feeling alot better).

With RBrown, Caddy, or Willis as my #1, i'm more worried about solidifying my RB spot. So i'd probably wind up w/ a 2nd of the above or DDavis, BWestbrook... Now i'm looking at getting a WR late 3rd & early 4th... So I would probably change my mind and take a stud WR in the 2nd and pick up Dunn/Dillon/CTaylor in the 3rd since i think they could put up almost similar numbers to a DDavis/Westbrook as compared to the difference in scoring between the WRs i would get...

 

Now, if i was drafting 4-8, i'd feel pretty swell about my #1 RB, and if Manning fell to me in the 2nd, i would feel ok about drafting him, and then getting either WR or RB in the 3rd and then taking the other in the 4th... but having Walker/Plaxico/RoyWilliams as my #1 WR just doesn't make me feel warm and fuzzy... So i take WR in the 3rd, and wind up w/ Droughns/TJones/Deuce as my #2 RB...

 

Finally, if i skip Peyton altogether, I can get a good #1 RB, a good #1 WR, a good #2 RB, a decent #2 WR, and then wait out on QB and still get a Brady/Hasselbeck/Delhomme later in the draft... Granted, those 3 QBs aren't a lock for 30+ TDs, but i feel much better about not having to guess on my RBs and WRs from week to week - i may only have to guess on the platoon of my QBs...

[Leonard Henry -2 Yds 0]

I have one stead fast rule in fantasy football and I will stick with this rule til the day I retire from this game: I will not take a QB until the 6th round or later. Sure, Manning is as close to a guarantee to put up 30 or more TD's, but you can always find a QB later who will throw 20-25 TD's or you can draft two solid QB's and play the matchup game. The last 6 champions in my league did not have a QB on their roster that was drafted in first three rounds.

 

I build my team through the draft with RB's and WR's and by the time rounds 6-8 come along, thats when I start looking for my QB. I'm not advocating waiting forever or else you'll end up with David Carr as your QB, but if you draft one in rounds 6-8, I'll be more than happy with a Kurt Warner or Jake Delhomme to lead my stable of good backs and receivers.

 

Just look at mocks everywhere, the teams who generally look the most solid usually have a QB that was taken outside of the top 3 or 4 rounds. The ones with Peyton usually have a major hole at RB2 or WR1 or sometimes both.

 

Yeah, you're really smart. I'm pretty sure all the geniuses that stuck to their guns and stayed away from solid QBs and drafted studs like Deuce McAllister, Willis McGahee, Curtis Martin, Jamal Lewis, and Ahman Green in the first 6 rounds owe their championships to your philosophy.

 

You're a moron.

[ellisonb11 0]

I'd much rather have Westbrook/Hasselbeck then Martin/Manning.

 

But personally, if I had picked Manning in round 2, I wouldn't go WR in both rounds 3 and 4, I'd be targeting a RB in round 3, or in round 4 at the latest. That said, I think Manning is decent value in the early second round, but I probably wouldn't take him unless it was the late second and I had some idea of what RB I could get in the 3rd.

 

agreed.

[gatorbait7391 0]

team 2 easy!

[ellisonb11 0]

team 2 easy!

 

agreed.

[falafel22 0]

Yeah, you're really smart. I'm pretty sure all the geniuses that stuck to their guns and stayed away from solid QBs and drafted studs like Deuce McAllister, Willis McGahee, Curtis Martin, Jamal Lewis, and Ahman Green in the first 6 rounds owe their championships to your philosophy.

 

You're a moron.

 

Very classy man. Now to your argument. I never said championships are guranteed by following my strategy. I just think my strategy puts my team in the best position to WIN. Injuries and busts happen ALL the time in the first few rounds, thats the nature of the beast. If the people who took those players followed my strategy and loaded up on WR's and RB's before they took a Qb, they would probably have some depth to overcome the bust performances correct??

 

By passing on QB's early, you can load up on your other positions and build depth to overcome a potential early round bust and you can still get a 3500, 20+ TD QB. By taking a QB early, you will weaken your other positions significantly.

 

OK just say you take Manning in the early second and you have Stephen Jackson as well. Your RB2 will be very weak and you will have a solid WR1 but one who is maybe best served as a WR2. You with me so far? By having such a weak RB2, you will probably have to take a bunch of high potential type RB's in the following rounds which will in turn, weaken your WR corps even more. Now if Stephen Jackson goes down with an injury or is a bust, you will have to rely on your RB2 (who is weak to begin with) to carry your RB corps. Plus your receiving corps will be average and now your stuck with a pretty average team. Not a fun predicament. And this is not even considering a potential injury to your "star" QB (see Culpepper, Daunte).

 

Bottom line is, you will have to hit a home run with your middle round picks, especially at your RB2 position. If you do hit a home run (Larry Johnson last year), then you'll compete, but if you dont you will probably struggle. I would rather take my chances with drafting solid RB's and WR's and then still end up with a QB who can put up solid points for me, but hey thats just me and the last 6 years in my league have proved it

[eo11 0]

firstly, i wouldn't want Caddy & Westy as my 1-2 punch for RBs...

not that i don't think either is capable of putting up top 5 numbers this year if healthy, but that's the question... will they both stay healthy for 16 games... If they did stay healthy you could be great though.

 

assuming you drafted 9th, that would put Manning at 2.04, which i think is a good value pick. I got him at 2.07 in one mock and was completely surprised. I think at 2.06 or later you almost HAVE to draft Manning as a defensive move so that the guys that have the top 3 (and second top 3) RBs don't have a chance for the #1 RB and #1 QB...

 

 

I tend to very much agree with this, I simply do not like the odds of that particular tandem giving you 32 games which makes it hard to suggest taking them both that early. Also the thought of a guy having a LT or an Alexander and Manning cannot sit well with you.

 

I would add the place where you have Ahman Green looks to be a very good bang for the buck scenario. You would still be taking a risk but at a much lower price.

 

http://www.autumnthunder.com/affiliates/id...iate.php?id=102

[Leonard Henry -2 Yds 0]

Very classy man. Now to your argument. I never said championships are guranteed by following my strategy. I just think my strategy puts my team in the best position to WIN. Injuries and busts happen ALL the time in the first few rounds, thats the nature of the beast. If the people who took those players followed my strategy and loaded up on WR's and RB's before they took a Qb, they would probably have some depth to overcome the bust performances correct??

 

By passing on QB's early, you can load up on your other positions and build depth to overcome a potential early round bust and you can still get a 3500, 20+ TD QB. By taking a QB early, you will weaken your other positions significantly.

 

OK just say you take Manning in the early second and you have Stephen Jackson as well. Your RB2 will be very weak and you will have a solid WR1 but one who is maybe best served as a WR2. You with me so far? By having such a weak RB2, you will probably have to take a bunch of high potential type RB's in the following rounds which will in turn, weaken your WR corps even more. Now if Stephen Jackson goes down with an injury or is a bust, you will have to rely on your RB2 (who is weak to begin with) to carry your RB corps. Plus your receiving corps will be average and now your stuck with a pretty average team. Not a fun predicament. And this is not even considering a potential injury to your "star" QB (see Culpepper, Daunte).

 

Bottom line is, you will have to hit a home run with your middle round picks, especially at your RB2 position. If you do hit a home run (Larry Johnson last year), then you'll compete, but if you dont you will probably struggle. I would rather take my chances with drafting solid RB's and WR's and then still end up with a QB who can put up solid points for me, but hey thats just me and the last 6 years in my league have proved it

 

RB depth? Why would I want depth to accompany run of the mill RBs when I could just draft elite receivers or QBs in the first 6 rounds? Trust me, I'll take manning, holt, and _____ WR over steven jackson, westbrook, and kevin jones calibre RB corps ANYDAY.

 

Step back and analyze what happened last year with RBs. Aside from the top 6 or 7, every other RB was practically a roster/gap filler. Kevin Jones, Julius Jones, Ahman Green, Jamal Lewis, Deuce McAllister, Chris Brown, Reuben Droughns, Michael Bennett/Mewelde, etc etc etc (should I name more? I can) all had years and numbers that were similar and not worth a high draft pick (top 3 or 4 rounds). Meanwhile, Marvin, Holt, Chad, Steve Smith (drafted in the 3rd in my league), Manning, Palmer (drafted in the 4th in my league--what vision!), Hasselbeck, Brady were all solid players going into last year's drafts that all had good years. I'm seriously wondering, in your league, if you click that little fantasy pts ranking, where are Manning and Palmer? Right near Larry, Shaun and LT where they belong? or near the bulls.hit guys that you would draft like Steven Jackson number wise?

 

Who was the "solid" 20+ td 3500 yd guy you had last year in the 6th? Aaron Brooks? lol

 

I'm sorry, but if I was in the first round at the 7th pick or so and I chose Ronnie Brown as the elite stud/crutch of my team over a quarterback that is two years removed from BREAKING THE SINGLE SEASON TOUCHDOWN RECORD I might as well stop playing

 

Maybe I should add that he's never been injured, has thrown for nearly 4000 yards in every season he's played, has the same coaching staff and offensive receiving unit, and has a weaker running game this year. Yeah, I'd feel "ok" about that if he "slipped to the 2nd round after I had my average #1 RB" too

[falafel22 0]

Leonard Henry,

 

I guess we agree to disagree, although you have done a great job of proving my points over and over again. Here we go......

 

Why would I want depth to accompany run of the mill RBs when I could just draft elite receivers or QBs in the first 6 rounds? Trust me, I'll take manning, holt, and _____ WR over steven jackson, westbrook, and kevin jones calibre RB corps ANYDAY.

I would love to see the stable of RB's your team would put together in this scenario.

 

Manning, Palmer (drafted in the 4th in my league--what vision!), Hasselbeck, Brady were all solid players going into last year's drafts that all had good years.

 

Thank you for proving my point. Other than Peyton Manning, the QB's you mentioned: Palmer, Hasselbeck, and Brady were drafted in guess what?? oh yeah, the middle rounds! Meanwhile Culpepper, Bulger, and McNabb were 2nd and 3rd round busts. Ahhh, I guess you can find successful middle rouund QB's.

 

I'm seriously wondering, in your league, if you click that little fantasy pts ranking, where are Manning and Palmer? Right near Larry, Shaun and LT where they belong? or near the bulls.hit guys that you would draft like Steven Jackson number wise?

 

Fantasy point rankings (in order): Palmer (middle round QB), Brady (Middle round QB), Alexander, Peyton, Eli Manning (Late round QB), Bledsoe (late round QB), Tomlinson, Larry Johnson, Hasselbeck (Middle round QB), Drew Brees (middle round QB), Jake Delhomme (another Middle round QB), and that stud Kerry Collins. Do you notice anything here?? Thats right, the top scoring list is peppered with QB's who were taken in the middle to late rounds. Do i have to even argue with you anymore??

 

Who was the "solid" 20+ td 3500 yd guy you had last year in the 6th? Aaron Brooks? lol

 

I just listed you 8 QB's who were taken in the middle to late rounds. By the way, I took Hasselbeck in the 7th.

 

If you want to waste an early pick on Peyton, go right ahead you have every right. As I have proved in this post, you can find a middle to late round QB who can put up very good numbers. Better than Peyton? No, but I will be more than happy to pick a QB in the 7th round that will be solid and will allow me to load up on RB's and WR's. Does this work all the time?? No, it doesnt because so many factors play into fantasy football (luck, injuries, and busts). But I feel this strategy puts you in the best position to win since it will allow you to build depth in the first 6 rounds so when your stud does go down with injury or is a bust, then you have decent options to back them up

[Leonard Henry -2 Yds 0]

The whole point is, your league is extremely foolish if they're taking 5 guys ahead of solid QBs. I'm assuming 3 RBs and 2 WRs? You said you dont take one before the 6th? Especially considering your league, where it seems to be QB heavy, it's an important position that should be addressed early, not taken for granted in an "any ol' guy will fall to me" philosophy. It makes no sense that you'd value average RBs and depth over the most important position in your league.

 

Think of it this way, I'm not going to let Matt Hasselbeck pass me by so I can "shore up" my RB depth with trash like Fred Taylor and hope someone within the range of Hasselbeck will slide to me in the 7th. If anything, I'd take the opposite approach and let the clown RBs slide to the seventh. It's unbelievable to me that people are drafting guys like Frank Gore in the 5th, before they've even taken a QB. That's sickening.

 

I guess your philosophy works in your league because of your RB frenzy coaches, but in my league, Peyton Manning will be taken 4th overall because he is a one man fantasy game winner, as much as Alexander, LT, and Larry. No one can argue that.

 

Also, I drafted Willis McGahee and Jamal Lewis in the first 2 rounds last year (i'll never go RB RB again), and I somehow managed to land in 3rd place in my league. I didn't grab team savers like Willie Parker or Stephen Davis, I just know how to work trades and buy low and sell high - so saving myself from the bust factor is not on my mind in the early rounds.

 

You can use the same philosophy with trash RBs. Why draft Kevin Jones when I can grab any other 1000 yd 8 td RB a couple rounds later?

 

In a league of negative pts for turnovers, QB is a make or break position for a team. You dont win games when you settle for Aaron Brooks and are confident going into the season because he's normally considered a "3500 20+" guy and he's getting you negative pts on a consistent basis

[TD Ryan2 316]

I guess your philosophy works in your league because of your RB frenzy coaches, but in my league, Peyton Manning will be taken 4th overall because he is a one man fantasy game winner, as much as Alexander, LT, and Larry. No one can argue that.

 

Also, I drafted Willis McGahee and Jamal Lewis in the first 2 rounds last year (i'll never go RB RB again)

 

 

just a few thoughts here:

 

- scoring system (6 per TD) and starting lineups (3WRs?) play a big role here.

 

 

As always, RBs are KING in fantasy football. But AFTER those 5 (or so) elite RBs are gone (for this year, LJ, SA, LT, Edge, Portis, Tiki, maybe Rudi, Lamont) there's NO reason NOT to consider Manning or some of the elite WRs (SSmith, Holt, Owens, CJ, Harrison, maybe Moss?).

 

Without getting into a statistical argument about VALUE (and the VBD numbers DO support what I'm saying),

lets just say that there's less RISK in taking Manning or an elite WR than there is going after a second/third tier RB.

 

For Manning, taking him in the late 1st isn't a bad move at all, it'd be nice if you can get him after the turn (early second) but for that you'd have to know you leaguemates drafting tendencies.

 

Furthermore, there seems to be a decent stable of RBs that will be available in the late 3rd, early 4th... guys like W. Parker, Droughns, C Taylor, W Dunn, T Jones, F Gore... you could conceivably nab 2 of them on the turn.

 

And, I have stated many times, I believe that RB are overdrafted and overprojected in Mocks and ADPs... RBs just don't fly off the board in a real draft quite like they do in a mock. You MAY see a Westbrook or McGahee type slip to you in the mid-late 3rd.

You've also got CuMar going VERY late right now and for any team looking to "shore up" RBs with late round picks, CuMar is an excellent option.

[Leonard Henry -2 Yds 0]

In a QB TD = 6 pts, ppr, 3 WR league, I see no reason why anyone should pass on Manning at even the 4th overall pick. I don't really see how Clinton Portis's and Rudi Johnsons etc are any more of a consistent point scorer than Manning. Manning will also get you more td's than they will. If all TD's are equal, why not go for the guy that is likely to score the most???

 

I just see no "sexiness" in Rudi Johnson calibre players as first rounders. They're likely to be outscored phenominally by elite WRs and QBs every single year. So why waste your first pick on them?

[biscuitman357 0]

I think you take Manning if you tier your positions on your cheatsheets when you draft. (I.E., you bunch RBs up by groupings and then factor in what tier the player is in. ) and RBs are in the second tier by the time you pick.

 

I think the key to your first pick is pure consistent production, regardless of position. The year Baltimore won the SuperBowl, their defense was unreal. Same for the 80's SuperBowl Bears. Certainly no one could predict that would happen, but on pure point production, I'm sure that Baltimore D way outscored some RBs that got drafted Round 1 then got hurt or busted that year. What I'm saying is never rule out anything because they are not a RB. First pick should be someone solid and consistent. No1 this year shouldn't be Larry Johnson, it should be Shaun Alexander. The guy is nothing but a rock year in and year out. Sure hes not going to have LT2 or Holmes kind of numbers in certain games, but hes going to be reliable and give you consistent scoring week in and week out. Teams are built around rocks, not sand.

 

I think though, to take Manning in the first round, you have to gamble more on handcuff / young backs later in the draft. Which seems reasonable this season since there are lots of RB uncertainties on alot of teams and then take another solid QB in round 4 ( before most people pick the good QBs in rounds 5-6). There are a limited number of QBs this year who seem like locks to produce, if you are going to take Manning early, hoard QBs. Reduce the supply out there, increase the demand.

 

Where the Manning controversy lies is how long to keep him if you do get him. Colts usually lock up home field early and then Manning 's play becomes sporadic. He inevitably falls off the wagon by season end. Heres a FF reality, Manning will take you to the playoffs and probably help you get a high seed assuming you do all the other legwork, but he will guarantee you a first round playoff loss in FF if you hold onto him. Like in real life, he disappears when you need him the most. The key to Manning is to trade him by Week 13 to team on the fringe of making the playoffs. Odds are they will have a garbage QB and will overtrade to shore up that weakness. You can fill team holes you have and dump Manning before he tanks on you.

[nickthegreekdog 0]

I had the fifth pick last year in one of my leagues (12 teams, normal scoring, no PPR or anything, 2RB and a flex). I took Peyton Manning. I also got Tiki in the second round (I don't know how he dropped, so don't ask). I had a number of bullhit RBs. Bottom line is this... I didn't make the playoffs.

 

If you tier your rankings (like I did), you'll find that the second, third, and fourth tier QBs are available in later rounds. Peyton (and I guess Culpepper last year) were the first tier QBs. Discounting Culpepper, who was hurt and sucked, I would much rather have had Rudi Johnson (who went sixth) and Tiki (who went to me) and a second, third, or fourth tier back than Peyton, Tiki, and some crappy back IMO. If everyone in my league took QBs in the first round, it would be a different story.

 

I don't discount QBs. It's just all about supply and demand. If you take a QB in the first round and everyone else is taking backs, you have crappy RBs. And someone who took RBs in the first two rounds will get a QB in round 3, 4, 5, etc. who, together with that guy's RBs, will outperform your team.

 

I guess I could have picked better second and third RBs (at one point in the season I was starting Tiki and Marion Barber and TJ Duckett), but I think I made my point with what happened to me last year.

 

Oh, and in 2004, the guy who had Manning was in our Super Bowl, but lost. But that was the year Manning threw 49 TDs. He probably wont' do that again.