Reggie Bush Projections?

[RamslovaMartzhata 3]

I know most people are saying that Reggie is not a good pick this year. My question what are people projecting him to have as far as stats?

 

FFtoday has him listed as so:

 

109 carries, 555 yds, 5 TD. 47 rec, 360 yds, 2 TD's

 

IMHO, those seem like extremely modest projections for how highly touted Bush was coming out of the draft and how mu ch athletic talent I feel he has (USC bias admitted). Those numbers just don't make sense to me.

 

First of all, you would think the Saints would give him more than an average of 6.81 carries a game if he is averaging 5.09 yds a carry? Also, fftoday has him averaging 2.94 receptions a game. All in all they are saying he is going to average less than ten touches (on offense). Am I the only one who sees that being low? I am thinking along these numbers:

 

140 carries - 700 yards - 6TDs. 64 rec - 520 yards, 3 TD's. (Also one return TD)

 

That is an average of 12.75 touches (4 rec, 8.75 carries) on offense, 76.25 yards a game, and .63 TD's... which seems relatively reasonable to me. His ADP is currently in the mid third round. With those numbers, in a PPR league, does that represent good value.... especially when you consider he has an extremely high upside?

 

If he is there @ 3.7, I will take him for sure. I am even thinking about doing the unthinkable and reaching for him @ 2.7 just because I am that big of a fan of him.

 

I just don't see how he went from the next coming of Jesus, to a third round pick... is it just because of the Deuce factor... who is coming off an injury, and has looked more like Eddie George past his prime in recent years?

[Eriadoc 4]

140 carries x 5.0 YPC = 700 yards. You're giving him 5 YPC as a rookie? FFToday has him getting more YPC, actually, just on fewer carries.

 

Personally, I don't see him getting 5 YPC as a rookie. He should make a few exciting plays, but he's going to find out that the NFL != NCAA. The linebackers are fast, the DBs are big, and the D-lines don't give up lanes like what happens in the NCAA. Players are more disciplined, more talented, and better coached, for the most part. They stay in their lanes and hold the edges. Aside from all that, he still has Deuce to overtake. McAllister has done nothing to relinquish that job aside from injury and if he's back to healthy, he's still the workhorse there. Give Bush a year or two and he'll take the job, but he's a rookie.

 

 

 

Besides, he'll be  :bench:  after holding out through training camp.

[Parkers99 0]

Ramy,

 

Your debating a projected variance of 300 yds & 2 td's...For an unsigned rookie RB coming into an offense that we know absolutely nothing about: new system, new QB; C'mon brother, your trying too hard

 

We all get a little nutz this time of year. We're knee deep in our projections & going crazy from a general lack of quality NFL information.

 

Some days I just want to come in here and SCREAM: Doesn't ANYONE know who the starting RB is in Green "Freakin'" Bay??!! It's frustrating... but camps will be underway soon and we'll have plenty of info to keep us busy.

[Rookie QB 0]

 

He is in the NFL, not the NCAA.

[famousb 11]

i'm going to start by looking at his schedule, and grading what i believe will be the harder(H) and easier(E) defenses against the run based on last year's performance and whether they were in the top 1/2 or bottom 1/2.

Then i'm going to guess whether they could win(W) or lose(L) that game.

 

Sep 10 @Cleveland 1:00pm (E)(W)

Sep 17 @Green Bay 1:00pm (E)(L)

Sep 25 Atlanta 8:30pm (E)(L)

Oct 1 @Carolina 1:00pm (H)(L)

Oct 8 Tampa Bay 1:00pm (H)(L)

Oct 15 Philadelphia 1:00pm (H)(W)

Week 7 BYE

Oct 29 Baltimore 1:00pm (H)(L)

Nov 5 @Tampa Bay 1:00pm (H)(L)

Nov 12 @Pittsburgh 1:00pm (H)(L)

Nov 19 Cincinnati 1:00pm (E)(L)

Nov 26 @Atlanta 1:00pm (E)(L)

Dec 3 San Francisco 1:00pm (H)(W)

Dec 10 @Dallas 1:00pm (H)(W)

Dec 17 Washington 1:00pm (E)(W)

Dec 24 @N.Y. Giants 1:00pm (H)(L)

Dec 31 Carolina 1:00pm (H)(L)

 

 

10 games against good run defenses, 6 against not-so-good run defenses.

and ok, so i have them going 0-fer in their division - last year they only beat CAR one time, and got swept by both ATL and TB. The only thing i see changing there is that CAR should sweep them too. Being generous i gave them 5 wins - 3 against the NFC East (which i don't really see happening, but they have to win some games, don't they?), for a final record of 5-11.

 

Putting those two things together i can't foresee a whole lot of running being done by NO to begin with since they most likely will be chasing in alot of those games. Under Haslett they were around 430 carries a year, i think they will probably end up around 400 at best this year, with a very big chunk of those going to Deuce (say 220). That leaves around 180 to be split amongst the rest of the RBs including Bush...

Now granted last year could be an anomaly due to Katrina, but add in a new coach and a new QB and i think the factors even out a little...

 

So i'm combining their schedule, along with the factors from previous posts and going to guess that he may get around:

125 carries, avg. of 4.2, 525 yds, maybe 2 tds?

45 recs., 8 yds. per, 360 yds, and this is where he'll score his TDs - 6 tds.

 

this is just a wild guess though...

[esoitl 0]

ive found a few FFT projections that are way out of whack but i assume these are all created with some type of formula and that neither you nor i could put as much into a projection or make it as close

 

ive done all my cheat sheets now and did so before i looked at projections or ADP

i plan to use these going into the draft as benchmarks to consider, one thing im considering is not touching Reggie until the 7th or so and after Deuce is gone

 

2.7 would be a mistake, sorry but you can dig your own grave on that one

[WhiteWonder 2,172]

Under Haslett they were around 430 carries a game,

 

 

[famousb 11]

 

oops... so much for trying to do too many things at once...

[mdubz 0]

all i know is he'll go far earlier than he should....the mike vick special.

[RamslovaMartzhata 3]

Bush has drawn comparisons to both Barry Sanders and Gale Sayers. Here are their rookie numbers:

 

Barry Sanders: (15 Games 1989) 1470 yards rushing, 24 receptions, 282 yards receiving, 14 TD's.

 

Gale Sayers: (14 Games, 1965) 867 yards rushing, 29 receptions, 507 yards receiving, 20 TD's

 

 

Now I am not saying that Reggie will hit those numbers this year. What I am saying is that he MAY. I just can't believe no one is willing to take that chance. I just can't believe that he is going to be that ineffective as fftoday's projections say. To me they seem like the bare-minimum numbers.

 

 

One other thing. They are talking about having Deuce and Reggie on the field at the same time a lot. Is there any chance Reggie becomes a RB/WR, and you can start him as a WR?

[famousb 11]

Bush has drawn comparisons to both Barry Sanders and Gale Sayers. Here are their rookie numbers:

 

Barry Sanders: (15 Games 1989) 1470 yards rushing, 24 receptions, 282 yards receiving, 14 TD's.

 

Gale Sayers: (14 Games, 1965) 867 yards rushing, 29 receptions, 507 yards receiving, 20 TD's

Now I am not saying that Reggie will hit those numbers this year. What I am saying is that he MAY. I just can't believe no one is willing to take that chance. I just can't believe that he is going to be that ineffective as fftoday's projections say. To me they seem like the bare-minimum numbers.

One other thing. They are talking about having Deuce and Reggie on the field at the same time a lot. Is there any chance Reggie becomes a RB/WR, and you can start him as a WR?

 

Sanders put up great rookie #s, Sayers put up decent numbers. Question is, where they sharing carries with an incumbent RB the caliber of Deuce?? that's where the problem...

As for the RB/WR thing, it would really depend on how your league classified him - but i don't see there being much more of a chance of that than BWestbrook being classified as a WR...

[jstraza 0]

I think there are a lot of people trying to look for all the reasons he isn't going to be a stud. I don't have the numbers in front of me but this guy bench pressed an insane number of reps. Not that that is the end all be all but he is really strong. He is an amazing receiver and will be catching balls when NO gets behind. Brees was the QB when LT caught 100 balls in a season. I am not predicting those numbers for Bush this year but he does have a QB that knows how to utilize a RB with great pass catching ability. I am in a keeper league and drafted him late second round. I got McAllister as well. I am sure I will have weeks where Bush lets me down. Over the next few years I look for him to be one of the best RBs in football though.

[Savage Beast 1]

Bush has drawn comparisons to both Barry Sanders and Gale Sayers. Here are their rookie numbers:

 

Barry Sanders: (15 Games 1989) 1470 yards rushing, 24 receptions, 282 yards receiving, 14 TD's.

 

Gale Sayers: (14 Games, 1965) 867 yards rushing, 29 receptions, 507 yards receiving, 20 TD's

 

Those guys did not have to share the ball with Deuce Mac like Bush has to. You so

[listen2me 23 1,544]

Those guys did not have to share the ball with Deuce Mac like Bush has to. You so

 

Agree....

 

Deuce is still a very good RB...good enough for the Saints to still get him 300 carries if healthy...

 

bottom line is Bush cannot put up good numbers if Deuce stays healthy all year...

 

why do so many people forget about Deuce...and think Bush is the featured back?

[GobbleDog 816]

He plays for the Saints and shares time with Duece. Mid 3rd round seems a bit too early considering that.

[RamslovaMartzhata 3]

First of all, I began this thread stating that his value was ina PPR league. Just a reminder...

 

4 receptions, 75 total yards and .5TD's a game are realistic projections IMHO. So we are talking about a total of 1200 yards, 64 receptions, and 8 TD's. In a PPR league, that totals 232 points. By last year's numbers that would have made him the #10 RB in a ppr standard scoring league. And that my friends is well worth a 2nd round draft pick and is a STEAL in the mid third. If anything, I think the TD numbers may be high due to what will probably be Deuce getting the goalline looks... so let's say we lower it to 4 TD's. That is still good for 208 pts which would have been the #15 RB.

 

And the scary thing is, he could be even better than those numbers. I think people are looking too much into the situation and not enough at the player... I guess that is the point I am trying to make.

 

I have convinced myself. I am taking him @ 2.6 if he reports to camp relatively on time. I could well be the idiot of the year, but I think I have every chance to have the last laugh. We'll have to bring this back at years end and see how it shakes out.

[GobbleDog 816]

Fantasy football history is littered with owners who crashed and burned after taking RBs too early based soley on "projected stats".

 

I refuse to get burned. Show me a full year of decent stats before I'll waste an early pick. I might miss a few gems along the way, but I'll avoid a lot more potholes.

[RamslovaMartzhata 3]

you do realize that's 18.75 YPC avg.

 

That's over 3 YPC higher than any RB who had more than 1 rec. and 10th on the list of ALL WRs last year. If you make it any WR who had more than 10 catches he would be 2nd, more than 15 catches he would be first.

Now when you look at WRs that really play. Ashlie Lelie was the highest at 18.33. Terry Glenn was the 2nd highest avg. at 18.32, then Santana Moss was down at 17.65...

I may be going out on a limb here a little bit, but i don't think he's going to have 18.75 YPC for an avg. whether he plays RB or WR...

Sure he may catch a few more than 4 a game to help reach those numbers, but if you want to say he's going to start catching 5 or 6 passes a game that means he's going to be approaching #1 WR rec. totals... I'll also go out on a limb and say i don't think that is going to happen either...

JM2C

 

 

The 75 yards includes rushing yards as well. I am thinking about 5 yards a carry (yes that high) about 8 carries a game for 40 yards. The other 35 yards will come on about 4 receptions or about 8.75 yards a catch.

 

Fantasy football history is littered with owners who crashed and burned after taking RBs too early based soley on "projected stats".

 

I refuse to get burned. Show me a full year of decent stats before I'll waste an early pick. I might miss a few gems along the way, but I'll avoid a lot more potholes.

 

Best argument yet.

[famousb 11]

The 75 yards includes rushing yards as well. I am thinking about 5 yards a carry (yes that high) about 8 carries a game for 40 yards. The other 35 yards will come on about 4 receptions or about 8.75 yards a catch.

 

yeah, sorry about that. i realized what you meant when i went back and re-read your previous post... so i deleted the aforementioned post...

I didn't think your projection would be that outrageous, as you usually have a better grasp on reality than that...

[RamslovaMartzhata 3]

you usually have a better grasp on reality than that...

 

Opinions vary, especially when talking about the Rams

 

As the late great Chick Hearn would say, no harm no foul.

 

Now the question is, do I have the balls to go with my gut and take Reggie @ 2.6 because I want him and I know he won't be there @ 3.7 (league full of USC fans).

[famousb 11]

Now the question is, do I have the balls to go with my gut and take Reggie @ 2.6 because I want him and I know he won't be there @ 3.7 (league full of USC fans).

 

here's my take:

If you do reach for him at 2.6 and he meets or exceeds your expectations, you look like a genius and could win your league.

If you do reach for him at 2.6 and he bombs below your expectations by too much you're left w/ a 2nd rd. pick who puts up numbers worse than a guy you could've gotten in the 4th or lower (ie Dunn, Dillon). and you probably don't have much chance of winning it all unless the rest of your draft turns out to be key picks...

 

to me, unless it's a keeper league where i get the opportunity to hold onto for years where he may not be competing against Deuce, i don't like the risk and would rather take a #1 WR in the 2nd and hope that he does come back to me at 3.7, and if not there are other guys i wouldn't mind having as my #2...

 

but if you are a die-hard RB/RB guy, and you're sitting there at 2.6 and really believe in your projections, there's no more risk in that then taking KJ, JJ, or even McGahee at that spot since they all have ?s around them too...

[listen2me 23 1,544]

the way I look at it is you could easily lose your league with this pick but most likely won't win it with the pick....

 

I just don't see him being a top 3 in REC. for a RB with mostly only being in on 3rd downs....

 

3rd down backs catch many balls but not 60 some worth....

 

now if Deuce gets hurt I could easily see him having good stats...thats a big IF invested in a 2nd round pick that won't make your team but could break it....

[Gepetto 988]

In a 10 team Mock Draft I'm in currently, I took Reggie Bush at 3.08 as my 3rd Running Back. I didn't see any players left that I can rank higher than Reggie.

 

1.01 TruWarior Johnson, Larry RB KCC 7/3/2006

12:36:00 AM

1.02 SmashMouth Tomlinson, LaDainian RB SDC 7/3/2006

12:36:00 AM

1.03 team swayze Alexander, Shaun RB SEA 7/3/2006

12:36:00 AM

1.04 Diamond Dogs Portis, Clinton RB WAS 7/3/2006

12:36:00 AM Hello

1.05 Never a Computer Selection! Jackson, Steven RB STL 7/3/2006

1:07:00 AM

1.06 Glass of Water Manning, Peyton QB IND 7/3/2006

11:23:00 AM

1.07 Jimmy Neutrons Barber, Tiki RB NYG 7/4/2006

12:04:00 AM Computer Selection

1.08 MockIt10 James, Edgerrin RB ARI 7/4/2006

12:04:00 AM

1.09 bno Owens, Terrell WR PHI 7/4/2006

12:27:00 AM

1.10 bungle10-1 Johnson, Rudi RB CIN 7/4/2006

12:27:00 AM

 

2.01 bungle10-1 Jordan, LaMont RB OAK 7/4/2006

12:27:00 AM

2.02 bno Holt, Torry WR STL 7/4/2006

12:30:00 AM

2.03 MockIt10 Brown, Ronnie RB MIA 7/4/2006

12:30:00 AM

2.04 Jimmy Neutrons Williams, Carnell RB TBB 7/4/2006

12:30:00 AM Computer Selection

2.05 Glass of Water Davis, Domanick RB HOU 7/4/2006

12:30:00 AM

2.06 Never a Computer Selection! McGahee, Willis RB BUF 7/4/2006

1:30:00 AM

2.07 Diamond Dogs Smith, Steve WR CAR 7/4/2006

1:39:00 AM

2.08 team swayze Westbrook, Brian RB PHI 7/4/2006

3:56:00 AM

2.09 SmashMouth Moss, Randy WR OAK 7/4/2006

3:56:00 AM

2.10 TruWarior Fitzgerald, Larry WR ARI 7/4/2006

2:46:00 PM

 

3.01 TruWarior Johnson, Chad WR CIN 7/4/2006

2:49:00 PM

3.02 SmashMouth Jones, Kevin RB DET 7/4/2006

2:49:00 PM

3.03 team swayze Boldin, Anquan WR ARI 7/4/2006

2:53:00 PM

3.04 Diamond Dogs Jones, Julius RB DAL 7/4/2006

3:23:00 PM How was your sleep Truwarrior?

3.05 Never a Computer Selection! Gates, Antonio TE SDC 7/4/2006

3:34:00 PM

3.06 Glass of Water Harrison, Marvin WR IND 7/5/2006

12:07:00 AM

3.07 Jimmy Neutrons Chambers, Chris WR MIA 7/5/2006

12:07:00 AM Computer Selection

3.08 MockIt10 Bush, Reggie RB FA 7/5/2006

12:07:00 AM

[RamslovaMartzhata 3]

the way I look at it is you could easily lose your league with this pick but most likely won't win it with the pick....

 

I just don't see him being a top 3 in REC. for a RB with mostly only being in on 3rd downs....

 

3rd down backs catch many balls but not 60 some worth....

 

now if Deuce gets hurt I could easily see him having good stats...thats a big IF invested in a 2nd round pick that won't make your team but could break it....

 

 

Why do you think he is only going to be in on 3rd downs?

[Polamalu43 0]

IMO, I see the Saints trying to get Reggie about 15 touches per game at least. Deuce should get the majority of the carries, but Reggie should get anywhere from 8-12 carries and 4-6 catches if the Saints use him like he should be. 15 touches for Reggie IMO is a pretty good value out of pick 3.7.

[listen2me 23 1,544]

Why do you think he is only going to be in on 3rd downs?

 

that what he basically will be....he is too good to be just a 3rd down back but I do expect Deuce to get 300+ carries if healthy for the whole season...which leaves just a little more work than a regular 3rd down back which is still not enough to get 60+ Rec.

[Polamalu43 0]

that what he basically will be....he is too good to be just a 3rd down back but I do expect Deuce to get 300+ carries if healthy for the whole season...which leaves just a little more work than a regular 3rd down back which is still not enough to get 60+ Rec.

 

The Saints will do whatever they can to get him into the game whether he lines up in the backfield or in the slot, etc. He will do more then just handle 3rd down back responsibilities.

[jstraza 0]

I just don't see McAllister putting up the numbers or being able to handle the carries this year. It took Egde a full season after his injury to get back to his old seld. Deuce is a lot bigger and is going to be harder on his knee due to it. I can't see how he is fully healthy at all this year.

[duaneok66 0]

The Saints will do whatever they can to get him into the game whether he lines up in the backfield or in the slot, etc. He will do more then just handle 3rd down back responsibilities.

 

 

and this is because you say so????

 

they have a major RB force back there already, the guy just signed a $50 million dollar deal, he isnt going to step away and start handing out gatorade . . .

 

 

I can't believe that any rational person would take Bush in the 2nd round (in a redraft league) . . .

[greggorymac 0]

In a 10 team Mock Draft I'm in currently, I took Reggie Bush at 3.08 as my 3rd Running Back. I didn't see any players left that I can rank higher than Reggie.

 

1.01 TruWarior Johnson, Larry RB KCC 7/3/2006

12:36:00 AM

1.02 SmashMouth Tomlinson, LaDainian RB SDC 7/3/2006

12:36:00 AM

1.03 team swayze Alexander, Shaun RB SEA 7/3/2006

12:36:00 AM

1.04 Diamond Dogs Portis, Clinton RB WAS 7/3/2006

12:36:00 AM Hello

1.05 Never a Computer Selection! Jackson, Steven RB STL 7/3/2006

1:07:00 AM

1.06 Glass of Water Manning, Peyton QB IND 7/3/2006

11:23:00 AM

1.07 Jimmy Neutrons Barber, Tiki RB NYG 7/4/2006

12:04:00 AM Computer Selection

1.08 MockIt10 James, Edgerrin RB ARI 7/4/2006

12:04:00 AM

1.09 bno Owens, Terrell WR PHI 7/4/2006

12:27:00 AM

1.10 bungle10-1 Johnson, Rudi RB CIN 7/4/2006

12:27:00 AM

 

2.01 bungle10-1 Jordan, LaMont RB OAK 7/4/2006

12:27:00 AM

2.02 bno Holt, Torry WR STL 7/4/2006

12:30:00 AM

2.03 MockIt10 Brown, Ronnie RB MIA 7/4/2006

12:30:00 AM

2.04 Jimmy Neutrons Williams, Carnell RB TBB 7/4/2006

12:30:00 AM Computer Selection

2.05 Glass of Water Davis, Domanick RB HOU 7/4/2006

12:30:00 AM

2.06 Never a Computer Selection! McGahee, Willis RB BUF 7/4/2006

1:30:00 AM

2.07 Diamond Dogs Smith, Steve WR CAR 7/4/2006

1:39:00 AM

2.08 team swayze Westbrook, Brian RB PHI 7/4/2006

3:56:00 AM

2.09 SmashMouth Moss, Randy WR OAK 7/4/2006

3:56:00 AM

2.10 TruWarior Fitzgerald, Larry WR ARI 7/4/2006

2:46:00 PM

 

3.01 TruWarior Johnson, Chad WR CIN 7/4/2006

2:49:00 PM

3.02 SmashMouth Jones, Kevin RB DET 7/4/2006

2:49:00 PM

3.03 team swayze Boldin, Anquan WR ARI 7/4/2006

2:53:00 PM

3.04 Diamond Dogs Jones, Julius RB DAL 7/4/2006

3:23:00 PM How was your sleep Truwarrior?

3.05 Never a Computer Selection! Gates, Antonio TE SDC 7/4/2006

3:34:00 PM

3.06 Glass of Water Harrison, Marvin WR IND 7/5/2006

12:07:00 AM

3.07 Jimmy Neutrons Chambers, Chris WR MIA 7/5/2006

12:07:00 AM Computer Selection

3.08 MockIt10 Bush, Reggie RB FA 7/5/2006

12:07:00 AM

 

You would take Bush over players like Dillion or Foster (who have injury concerns but are going to get fed the rock a ton until they do get hurt)?