Andre Johnson - Steppin Up or Steppin Down?

[Kilroy 0]

Selected by the Texans with the third overall pick in the 2003 draft, Andre Johnson went on to lead the second year franchise with 66 receptions, 976 yards and 4 touchdowns his rookie year. The following season produced even better results. The 6'3", 219 pound target caught 79 balls for 1,142 yards and 6 more touchdowns. About to enter his third season, there were big expectations placed upon Johnson for 2005.

 

After averaging 72 receptions, 1,059 yards and 5 touchdowns a season his first two years in the league, Johnson produced career lows across the board as a third year wideout. A knee injury suffered a month into the season cost him 3 games. It also made him a frequent player listed on the teams injury report from week to week. The injury lingered throughout the year and Johnson finished the season with 63 receptions for 688 yards and 2 touchdowns.

 

2006 brings about a new regime for the Texans. Gary Kubiak, from Shannahan's staff in Denver, was hired as Head Coach in the offseason. The team also made a deal with Buffalo to acquire Eric Moulds. An offensive coordinator for the past 11 seasons, and a 9 year vet at the QB position in the NFL, Kubiak should be able to turn around the Texans offensive woes.

 

Will Johnson bounce back to his 2004 form when he produced career highs, or will the changes Kubiak implements to the offense take some time for him to adjust to. The Texans will also need better protection from the o-line in order for the air attack to succeed. While the arrival of Eric Moulds should prove beneficial, it could also mean less looks in Johnson's direction if the 10 year vet has a quicker grasp of the system.

[harken34 0]

I hope he steps up

[enjoi525 0]

cant go much further down. with coaching improvements and considerably a weak divsion i see him stepping it.

[T-HO 1]

T-Ho standard operating procedure when evaluating anyone:

sos r-24th

60 poss inside the red zone-36 td's rank 30th

total off-30

py/g-30

ave g/off play big 'ol family feud 32nd

Is the offense on the field...how's the defense?

oa-31st

ry/g ----strike two

time of possesion 27th.

If the offense isn't on the field, you ain't doin nothin.

I don't care what kind of talent he has.

The big question: If I pass on him and someone starts him against me, how much do I regret the decision/feel scared/worried?

Conclusion:Lots of skill-good #2 takes pressure off.OL allowed 68 sacks last season. NEW:c M Flanigan. A few guys returning from injury plus kubiak means he could bounce back and have decent numbers, but....

No Thanks.

[Ras66not99 0]

Dammitt Kilroy i thoought we agreed you'd go with Moving Up and Moving down the next time you do one of these ???

[J-Money 4]

if there is no running game they will be forced to throw (will DD be able to play all or half the season?). If the Offensive Line can keep the defenders off of Carr then AJ should have a good season since the Def. backfields will have to worry about moulds as well. AJ should still be the #1 WR option there as far as I'm concerned

[akaoni 0]

I think that this is one of the most difficult calls presented in Stepping Up yet. He has all the tools, but his production depends largely on something outside his control; namely, the O line. If they can protect Carr and give him time to drop back, then Johnson may step back up and produce numbers similar to his second season. If not, then A.J. and Houston are in for another long season.

 

I think that the addition of Moulds and Kubiak should help. Natually, Moulds will draw some attention from opposing defenses, and Kubiak coming from Denver should be able to teach some of the dirty O line play which has made Denver so effective. Dom Davis' status is still a big question mark, but if healthy, he will also draw some defensive attention, which should help Johnson.

 

Of course, there are plenty of negatives as well, the first and foremost being that Houston is still a work in progress and is overall bad team. Further, the Texans have one of the tougher schedules (ESPN projects the 10th toughest), which means that they will likely struggle to put points on the board.

 

The fact that they will be playing from behind is likely both a plus and a minus (more passes Johnson's way, but teams will be able to more effectivel pressure Carr).

 

There are still too many questions for anyone to make a definative claim to know what will happen, but I think that the new additions to the team will help. So I say the Andre will be Stepping Up, with numbers around 65receptions for 900 yards, with maybe 5-6 TDs. That said, I still probably wouldn't pick him unless he dropped to the 5th round or lower in a 12 team draft.

[LOD01 192]

Carr is an overrated hack who is afraid of any defense he goes against. His favorite play is to run out of bounds without looking downfield. You can only blame everyone else for so long before you have to take the blame. This is the year that this loser gets the blame.

 

If he gets hurt, AJ will realize his potential. With Carr in there, it's doubtful. His excuses are over.

[Portis26 0]

1200 & 9 TDs

[TD Ryan2 315]

AJohnson's current ADP is 4.09.

consider that the following players have about equal (or lower) ADPs:

Plaxico (4.05), Driver (4.07), Horn (5.02), TJ Housh (5.05), Mason (5.09), Galloway (6.02), Matt Jones (8.10), T Glenn (9.08), A Bryant (11.03).

 

Really, I believe that I'd rather have any of the above over AJ as my #2/#3 WR.

 

I doubt I'll be drafting A Johnson because I won't pay the high draft price that he is currently demanding.

[akaoni 0]

AJohnson's current ADP is 4.09.

consider that the following players have about equal (or lower) ADPs:

Plaxico (4.05), Driver (4.07), Horn (5.02), TJ Housh (5.05), Mason (5.09), Galloway (6.02), Matt Jones (8.10), T Glenn (9.08), A Bryant (11.03).

 

Really, I believe that I'd rather have any of the above over AJ as my #2/#3 WR.

 

I doubt I'll be drafting A Johnson because I won't pay the high draft price that he is currently demanding.

 

I agree with this, I'd go with guys like Plax, Driver, Housh and Mason over A. Johnson this year. We'll see if his stock remains as high as it is...if so, I'll pass on him as well.

[Eriadoc 4]

AJ will be fine. As others have posted, his production depends on his teammates, so that is what I'll address.

 

OL -- Steve McKinney is a poor center. He played guard for Indy and then came to Houston to play center. He doesn't give up a lot of sacks, but he is constantly caving into the pocket, which blows the whole play. Flanagan will be a huge improvement. McKinney will slide over to RG, which should help a lot. He played LG for a couple games last season and looked better there than he ever has at center. Wiegert at RT has never ben the problem. Wiegert can play RT pretty well, but they kept putting him at RG and playing Todd Wade, who can't pass protect to save Carr's life. Wade has been cut and Wiegert is the new RT. Pitts has played a pretty decent LT, when he's been given the chance, but he's got the makings of a Pro Bowl-caliber LG. Frequently, he's been the only player ont he line making the proper reads on any given play. LT is an open competition at the moment between Seth Wand, Charles Spencer (rookie mammoth), and Eric Winston. Wand looks to be the favorite. 2004 was Wand's rookie season and he gave up 12 sacks (maybe 12.5, I forget). It was not great, but he was a rookie and most of the line sucked as well. He showed flashes, but never got the chance to show anything, as the 2005 OC, Pendry, must have hated him or something. The team signed Victor Riley (ugh) and he was so bad they ended up cutting him 2/3 way through the season. Wand never saw anything beyond ST. Winston and Spencer show promise, but they're rookies. I do expect one of them to end up starting at RT this season, due to injury or merit.

 

Additionally, Mike Sherman's main task this season is to get the O-line fixed. Most (not all) of their problems revolved around scheme the past few years. This will be the first year that the offense will have any true identity. Also, the team's been running the zone blocking scheme, but they've never used the cutback block. Kubiak's implementing this. Overall, the line should be better this year. Add in some rollout plays for Carr and a solid running game and the offense will be back to 2004 production or better, I believe.

 

TE -- The team's never had a true TE that can block and catch. Putzier and the rookie Daniels look to fill that role. The TE won't get a ton of TDs in this system (see Putz' totals from years past), but he'll help keep defenses honest. The Cover 2 DEF has been a nightmare for the Texans in the past - I don't expect that to be the case any longer. Daniels will be used in much the same manner that Washington uses Cooley, according to early reports. All in all, the added versatility will help the overall offensive production of the team.

 

RB -- This is where it gets a little hairy. I am not sold that DDavis' knee will be fine. If he can't go, it looks like ASmith will be the back, with Lundy pushing for playing time. The obvious backup choice would be Morency, but for some reason, Kubiak is not pleased with Morency. It's been reported that Morency's dancing too much, which was a complaint last year as well, but we'll see how much is coachspeak motivation and how much is really true. My gut feel is this goes beyond being a motivational ploy and Kubiak really is not enamored with Morency. Unless Lundy surprises (hey, it's THAT scheme), I expect an adequate, not stellar, running game.

 

WR -- the addition of Moulds opposite AJ will help immensely. AJ has dealt with triple teams way more than he should have. The only other true receiving threat on the team has been DD and teams have been more than willing to give up the underneath dump-off to contain AJ. Moulds is a big guy himself, so this team now has two legitimate star receivers.

 

AJ will be fine. The offense will perform up to 2004 level. Consistency will be the key to winning and we'll have to wait and see.

[BRANDON ROSS 0]

AJ will be fine. As others have posted, his production depends on his teammates, so that is what I'll address.

 

OL -- Steve McKinney is a poor center. He played guard for Indy and then came to Houston to play center. He doesn't give up a lot of sacks, but he is constantly caving into the pocket, which blows the whole play. Flanagan will be a huge improvement. McKinney will slide over to RG, which should help a lot. He played LG for a couple games last season and looked better there than he ever has at center. Wiegert at RT has never ben the problem. Wiegert can play RT pretty well, but they kept putting him at RG and playing Todd Wade, who can't pass protect to save Carr's life. Wade has been cut and Wiegert is the new RT. Pitts has played a pretty decent LT, when he's been given the chance, but he's got the makings of a Pro Bowl-caliber LG. Frequently, he's been the only player ont he line making the proper reads on any given play. LT is an open competition at the moment between Seth Wand, Charles Spencer (rookie mammoth), and Eric Winston. Wand looks to be the favorite. 2004 was Wand's rookie season and he gave up 12 sacks (maybe 12.5, I forget). It was not great, but he was a rookie and most of the line sucked as well. He showed flashes, but never got the chance to show anything, as the 2005 OC, Pendry, must have hated him or something. The team signed Victor Riley (ugh) and he was so bad they ended up cutting him 2/3 way through the season. Wand never saw anything beyond ST. Winston and Spencer show promise, but they're rookies. I do expect one of them to end up starting at RT this season, due to injury or merit.

 

Additionally, Mike Sherman's main task this season is to get the O-line fixed. Most (not all) of their problems revolved around scheme the past few years. This will be the first year that the offense will have any true identity. Also, the team's been running the zone blocking scheme, but they've never used the cutback block. Kubiak's implementing this. Overall, the line should be better this year. Add in some rollout plays for Carr and a solid running game and the offense will be back to 2004 production or better, I believe.

 

TE -- The team's never had a true TE that can block and catch. Putzier and the rookie Daniels look to fill that role. The TE won't get a ton of TDs in this system (see Putz' totals from years past), but he'll help keep defenses honest. The Cover 2 DEF has been a nightmare for the Texans in the past - I don't expect that to be the case any longer. Daniels will be used in much the same manner that Washington uses Cooley, according to early reports. All in all, the added versatility will help the overall offensive production of the team.

 

RB -- This is where it gets a little hairy. I am not sold that DDavis' knee will be fine. If he can't go, it looks like ASmith will be the back, with Lundy pushing for playing time. The obvious backup choice would be Morency, but for some reason, Kubiak is not pleased with Morency. It's been reported that Morency's dancing too much, which was a complaint last year as well, but we'll see how much is coachspeak motivation and how much is really true. My gut feel is this goes beyond being a motivational ploy and Kubiak really is not enamored with Morency. Unless Lundy surprises (hey, it's THAT scheme), I expect an adequate, not stellar, running game.

 

WR -- the addition of Moulds opposite AJ will help immensely. AJ has dealt with triple teams way more than he should have. The only other true receiving threat on the team has been DD and teams have been more than willing to give up the underneath dump-off to contain AJ. Moulds is a big guy himself, so this team now has two legitimate star receivers.

 

AJ will be fine. The offense will perform up to 2004 level. Consistency will be the key to winning and we'll have to wait and see.

 

Great post very insightful.

 

 

T-HO Today, 01:17 AM Post #4

T-Ho standard operating procedure when evaluating anyone:

sos r-24th

60 poss inside the red zone-36 td's rank 30th

total off-30

py/g-30

ave g/off play big 'ol family feud 32nd

Is the offense on the field...how's the defense?

oa-31st

ry/g ----strike two

time of possesion 27th.

If the offense isn't on the field, you ain't doin nothin.

I don't care what kind of talent he has.

The big question: If I pass on him and someone starts him against me, how much do I regret the decision/feel scared/worried?

Conclusion:Lots of skill-good #2 takes pressure off.OL allowed 68 sacks last season. NEW:c M Flanigan. A few guys returning from injury plus kubiak means he could bounce back and have decent numbers, but....

No Thanks.

 

jibber jabber.

[akaoni 0]

If the O line is going to be improved as Eriadoc is maintaining, then I would certianly upgrade Johnson a bit, but I'm as of yet unconvinced...

[Eriadoc 4]

If the O line is going to be improved as Eriadoc is maintaining, then I would certianly upgrade Johnson a bit, but I'm as of yet unconvinced...

 

Keep in mind that this is all relative. The line can't be much worse than it was last season. In 2004, Carr put up 3500+ yards with an 83.5 rating while still being sacked 49 times (terrible). So if the team improves back to 49 sacks, the offense should revert back to 2004 totals, just based on that information alone. Add in a greater talent level than what existed in 2004 and a coaching staff that's cohesive and competent, and there should be no reason to discount a return to those numbers. If the O-line gels and performs beyond that, then who knows? The team might even exceed those expectations.

[duaneok66 0]

AJohnson's current ADP is 4.09.

consider that the following players have about equal (or lower) ADPs:

Plaxico (4.05), Driver (4.07), Horn (5.02), TJ Housh (5.05), Mason (5.09), Galloway (6.02), Matt Jones (8.10), T Glenn (9.08), A Bryant (11.03).

 

Really, I believe that I'd rather have any of the above over AJ as my #2/#3 WR.

 

I doubt I'll be drafting A Johnson because I won't pay the high draft price that he is currently demanding.

 

 

ditto . . . I'd take Mason and Driver over Johnson at this point . . .

[cdrahos 0]

You can talk about his break out year in 2004 all you want but the reality of that year is he started out hot and then his fantasy stats took a big turn for the worse.

 

1st 5 games 2004: 29 catches, 525 yards, 4 tds.

 

Rest of year: 50 catches, 617 yards, 2 tds.

 

Add that to his horrible 2005 year and you are looking at 27 straight weeks where his production has sucked. Sure he has had a few good games mixed in here and there but you have to start him to get those points, and how you could have started him with any amount of confidence in this stretch is beyond me.

 

Will the new coaching and other changes help Andre? One would have to say yes simply because it can't get much worse for him. But will he start to produce like a consistent number 2 (or lower number 1 like some are suggesting)? I don't know... So I guess I say stepp'n up, but just slightly. And most likely he will not be on any of my teams because he will go a round or 2 or 3 before I like him.

[9-Route 0]

most on this board know i am very low on andre johnson and consider him pure hype.

 

he has nowhere to go but better after last yr's paltry stats; however, i still dont think he is due for the powerhouse production predicted by most ffers. carr has one yr left to prove his worth---his sub 20td performances and slow statistical rise are wearing out quickly.

[mpzee 0]

Since Capers was suppose to be a defensive guy, I think a revamped offensive scheme from Kubiak will only aid the offensive players. Kubiak was around the O-line system at Denver for some time, so he should bring that part of the offense as well.

 

Carr and AJ have been together for 3 years, so their chemistry together is improving. AJ is huge with speed and good hands, so he has the tools.

[La Fuerza 0]

This guy killed me last year. I find it hard to believe that his ADP in in the 4th round. I don't even think I would draft him as my #3 or a back-up to my #2 in 2 WR leagues.

[Polamalu43 0]

He has to step up unless he is battling injuries again.

[DaWeffa 0]

Carr is an overrated hack who is afraid of any defense he goes against. His favorite play is to run out of bounds without looking downfield. You can only blame everyone else for so long before you have to take the blame. This is the year that this loser gets the blame.

 

If he gets hurt, AJ will realize his potential. With Carr in there, it's doubtful. His excuses are over.

 

 

ummmm....i two seasons the guy has been sacked 137 times...so thats 4.5 times a game...

 

since he started as a qb he has been sacked a total of 208 times in 4 seasons..3.25 times a game

 

02=76 next closest was 54 (bledsoe).....difference of 22

03=15

04=49

05=68 next closest was 49 (bledsoe)....difference oif 19

 

on average i would say that most qbs get sacked 15-20 times a season.....

 

if i were him i would be scared too...

[Raider 84 29]

He will step it up if we go off of hi slast years stats, but I wouldn't expect better numbers than 75 1000 7 tds.