SmartassBoiler 0 Posted July 25, 2006 So, I'm trying to sort through the RB2 candidates for a draft I have this weekend. I think I'll have a shot at McGahee. Pros: His talent and the fact he's the unquestioned starter. There's no questioning that as he put up monster stats to close 2004 when he was finally given the starting job. He's a beast who has good quickness and can run people over. I read something on Rotoworld yesterday where they're relying on him to be a 3 down RB this year, which is different from last year when he was often pulled on passing downs. Does he have solid passing game skills? Cons: His surrounding offense. Good lord, I've never seen an offense this bad on paper in a while. Their QB situation is unsettled, Evans is moving to the WR1 position on the team which is a transition for him, and they have no bonafide second WR opposite him to attract the defense's attention. There's no TE. Their offensive line is among the worst in the league. I'm not a fan of the new coaching staff. I've seen most sites projecting him to be around 1200 - 1300 yards and 6-8 TDs, which seems to be reasonable since he should be the focal point of the offense. He actually battled through a bad surrounding offense last year and was having a good season up til week 10 when he could do no right, but the way he ended the season was alarming. What's everyone's opinion on him? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
OrangeSoda 2 Posted July 25, 2006 I am also in this perdicament...I have him as a potential keeper, he would be my #2 back. I have thought long and hard, and have decided to roll the dice and keep him one more year. Reasons being this... 1) his TD totals have to go up. 2) Losman is now in his 2nd year 3) The New head coah Loves McGahee The cons 1) they will play from behind a lot ( if he becomes a 3rd down back, he will get garbage Rec yrds so it wont matter) 2) the OL is worst in NFL 3) The schedule is noit favorable down the strtch... Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
blue98 0 Posted July 25, 2006 He wants to play his way out of Buffalo and only a productive season will allow him to do that, if he has a good year it will be holdout city for next year. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
LSUtiger 9 Posted July 25, 2006 It's very difficult for me to sell you on McGahee when I took him in the first round (8th overall) last season. What looked to be a steal for me ended up being a poop shoot. His yards for the year were not bad but his touchdown numbers were terrible. With seemingly the exact same offense coming back, minus Molds, I don't see how I could sell you on McGahee again. He didn't want to play for the team last year, what makes you think he'll put forth 100% this year? I just don't see it. I may be stuck in that "drafted a player who did poorly now will never draft him again" stage but trying to look at it objectively I see nothing that would convince me this year would be any better than the last. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
unckeyherb 2 Posted July 25, 2006 I too am keeping him, and I feel pretty confident about it. These are some of the reasons. The weight issue is there, but I think the biggest deal is that he will FINALLY be used in 3rd down situations and that is going to make his stats jumop this year. He was, by his own admission, overweight, lethargic and slow on the field all of last year. He came to camp at his college weight and has been working hard in the offseason to lose weight, build muscle and be able to explode like he did in Miami. Jauron and OC Steve Fairchild have both stated that they are working their offensive schemes to get him the ball as much as possible. This includes third-down time and creating passing plays that will utilize Willis. he had 28 rec's last year, 22 the year prior. If he can get 50 (which I don't think is out of the question) then theoretically he would double his rec yards of 170 to around 350. Also combine this with the fact that he is in better shape, and he should be able to break out a couple of long receptions, possibly for TD's. The QB situation is piss-poor. The O-line gives no time to either shithead, and that probably is not going to change much. The big difference this year is that there will be an option for the QB's to dump off to when its 3rd and 6 and there is no WR or TE open. Last year, as was stated above, Willis was not used in 3rd down plays especially passing plays. That gave Holcomb/Losman no one to dump to under pressure. Can you imagine how many yards he could pick up if every other 3rd down he gets a shuttle pass to get the first down? He'll get the yardage, obviously, with more chances to break away in the open field, along with getting more first downs and staying on the field for more of the game. Anyone who had him last year will tell you he sucked big time, only getting 5 TD's through the whole season . However, he still ended up with almost 1500 all purpose yards. If you figure ha can increase his rusing yards from last year by 250 total he'll end with 1500. Give him another 350 rec. and you've got 1850 total yards. He only had 5 TDs last year but he 13 the year before. take the average of those two and you've got a RB2 that could put up 1800 yards and 9 TDs. I would be happy with that. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
JT 137 Posted July 25, 2006 It's very difficult for me to sell you on McGahee when I took him in the first round (8th overall) last season. What looked to be a steal for me ended up being a poop shoot. His yards for the year were not bad but his touchdown numbers were terrible. With seemingly the exact same offense coming back, minus Molds, I don't see how I could sell you on McGahee again. He didn't want to play for the team last year, what makes you think he'll put forth 100% this year? I just don't see it. I may be stuck in that "drafted a player who did poorly now will never draft him again" stage but trying to look at it objectively I see nothing that would convince me this year would be any better than the last. I'm with you. I haven't seen anything in Losman that convinces me that he's an NFL starter. Holcomb is a journeyman. Nall is even more unproven than the other two. Even assuming that they're somewhat improved on offense (say, #20 instead of #28...which would be a solid jump) you still have the problem of their defense. #29 last year. Odds are they continue to play from behind, and that doesn't help any RB stats. About the only thing I see in his favor is their schedule come ff playoff time: wk 14: @ Jets; wk 15: Miami; wk 16: Tennessee; wk 17: @Balt Assuming you're not in a week 17 Super Bowl league, the Fins in Buffalo is the toughest game in that stretch. The other two matchups look pretty favorable. To me, that's not enough to make him my #1 RB. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
SmartassBoiler 0 Posted July 25, 2006 To me, that's not enough to make him my #1 RB. Yeah, but that's not the situation with him for most teams. He's going to be drafted as an RB2 by smart team owners, so I'm trying to see if he's worth it in that light. With all the currently unsettled RB situations, it'd be hard to pass on someone who has a defined role in his offense and offers some upside, even with the poor surrounding offensive situation. However, where he ranks with some of the mid-late 2nd round RB2s is what I'm trying to determine with this thread. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
PTAKBuCS 0 Posted July 25, 2006 McGahee is a sleeper in my opinion. Not that everyone doesn't know about him obviously...but that everyone is so DOWN on him. Entering his 3rd year...he still had 1,200 yards last year (5th in the AFC) on an awful team. As the team improves this year, so will the TDs. He did most of the work on his own last year creating yards. With any help from the other players, he can easily repeat 1,200 yards and double his TDs. I would stick with McGahee for another year. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
JT 137 Posted July 25, 2006 Yeah, but that's not the situation with him for most teams. He's going to be drafted as an RB2 by smart team owners, so I'm trying to see if he's worth it in that light. With all the currently unsettled RB situations, it'd be hard to pass on someone who has a defined role in his offense and offers some upside, even with the poor surrounding offensive situation. However, where he ranks with some of the mid-late 2nd round RB2s is what I'm trying to determine with this thread. Fair enough. I really hadn't looked at any ADP's so far, but taking a quick glance he's listed at 2.05. To me, that's ahead of a couple guys that I might rather have (J. Lewis 3.06, Droughns 3.07) and behind D.Davis (2.02) who I'd probably put him ahead of. Guess it depends on your draft position. Was I able to be no help at all? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
SmartassBoiler 0 Posted July 25, 2006 Fair enough. I really hadn't looked at any ADP's so far, but taking a quick glance he's listed at 2.05. To me, that's ahead of a couple guys that I might rather have (J. Lewis 3.06, Droughns 3.07) and behind D.Davis (2.02) who I'd probably put him ahead of. Guess it depends on your draft position. Was I able to be no help at all? I have him behind Dom Davis too. I don't like Davis' knee problem at all, and given I'll be drafting before he proves himself healthy in the preseason, I'll avoid him. It's a shame, because I think his surrounding team got better this offseason and there's no doubt he's a very good fantasy RB when healthy. I'd definitely rather have McGahee than Droughns. With Braylon Edwards out for a while, Winslow rehabbing and still learning the offense, and Jurevicious always a threat to get hurt, Cleveland has a similarly bad passing game to Buffalo. Droughns does have a better offensive line, but I question his skill level as a RB, his contributions in the passing game, and his terrible TD total. I'm on the fence about Jamal Lewis. I have no idea what to think of him. McGahee also has a similar ADP to the Jones boys...Kevin and Julius. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Young_Grasshopper 0 Posted July 25, 2006 I think he will be a decent RB2 with the potential to crack the top 8 (top 5 might be expecting a bit much). Takeo Spikes was lost early in the season last year which really hampered Buffalo's D; I don't think the defense will return to 2004 form, but it should be improved next year with the return of Spikes and a defense-heavy draft. As people have mentioned, most signs point to a slightly improved offense as well. The other advantage McGahee has over some RBs like Brian Westbrook, Dom Davis, and Kevin Jones is that he's stayed healthy and been the uncontested running back for more than a season now. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
lechuza 0 Posted July 25, 2006 McGahee will have a much better season this year. the two things that hurt him the most last year were 1. he was overweight 2. Mike Mularkey was one of the worst head coaches i have ever seen Both of those have been changed since mcgahee dropped about 15 pounds since last year and Mularkey is gone. the play calling was just horrible last year, the fullback who has gone years without a carry got more goaline touches than mcgahee. This year will be more focused around mcgahee and he will definitely improve over last year Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
JT 137 Posted July 25, 2006 I have him behind Dom Davis too. I don't like Davis' knee problem at all, and given I'll be drafting before he proves himself healthy in the preseason, I'll avoid him. It's a shame, because I think his surrounding team got better this offseason and there's no doubt he's a very good fantasy RB when healthy. I'd definitely rather have McGahee than Droughns. With Braylon Edwards out for a while, Winslow rehabbing and still learning the offense, and Jurevicious always a threat to get hurt, Cleveland has a similarly bad passing game to Buffalo. Droughns does have a better offensive line, but I question his skill level as a RB, his contributions in the passing game, and his terrible TD total. I'm on the fence about Jamal Lewis. I have no idea what to think of him. McGahee also has a similar ADP to the Jones boys...Kevin and Julius. I know the perception is that McGahee>Droughns, but I don't see it reflected in production. Over the last two seasons, the only two in which either has been a starter, Droughns has 2472 yds, 4.3 avg, 8 TD, and 15 runs over 20 yds. McGahee has 2375 yds, 3.9 avg, 18 TD, 14 runs over 20. Willis has a big edge in TD, but each has had one year that really jumps out (13 for McG in '04, only 2 for Droughns last year). I also liked what I saw of Frye better than what I saw of Losman, so that colors my view. What's your lineup structure? If a TE is required, you can probably get Gates with that 2.05, win your TE matchup every week, and still get Droughns, Lewis, etc in the 3rd. Even Steve Smith, TO, Holt, Chad Johnson to me is a bigger value pick there than a guy who may or may not outperform the RB I can get 12 picks later. JMO. Whatever you do, good luck unless you play in my league! Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ExtremeFajita 0 Posted July 25, 2006 One of the questions I always ask when deciding on a starting RB with significant upside AND downside: Does his team have a good enough passing game to keep defenses from stacking the line and shutting him down? With the O-Line in Buffalo as horrid as it is, what defensive coordinator is not going to put up an 8-man front and test the passing game? Granted you can point to exceptions like LT2, but... When LT2 gets frustrated he gets better. Last year when Willis got frustrated there were games where he mailed it in. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Ilov80s 0 Posted July 25, 2006 McGahee is a sleeper in my opinion. Not that everyone doesn't know about him obviously...but that everyone is so DOWN on him. Entering his 3rd year...he still had 1,200 yards last year (5th in the AFC) on an awful team. As the team improves this year, so will the TDs. He did most of the work on his own last year creating yards. With any help from the other players, he can easily repeat 1,200 yards and double his TDs. I would stick with McGahee for another year. I didn't follow the Bills offseason too closely, but didn't they reach for a safety in the first round and lose their most experienced offensive weapon? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
SmartassBoiler 0 Posted July 25, 2006 I know the perception is that McGahee>Droughns, but I don't see it reflected in production. Over the last two seasons, the only two in which either has been a starter, Droughns has 2472 yds, 4.3 avg, 8 TD, and 15 runs over 20 yds. McGahee has 2375 yds, 3.9 avg, 18 TD, 14 runs over 20. Willis has a big edge in TD, but each has had one year that really jumps out (13 for McG in '04, only 2 for Droughns last year). I also liked what I saw of Frye better than what I saw of Losman, so that colors my view. The thing you need to keep in mind here is the Droughns stats that you've listed here are the sum from two totally different offensive situations: 1 year in the RB situational goldmine known as Denver, and 1 year in the hellhole known as Cleveland. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
JT 137 Posted July 25, 2006 The thing you need to keep in mind here is the Droughns stats that you've listed here are the sum from two totally different offensive situations: 1 year in the RB situational goldmine known as Denver, and 1 year in the hellhole known as Cleveland. Granted, but he ran for about the same # of yards (albeit with a 4.0 avg vs 4.5) at Cleveland, same # of runs over 20 yds, fewer TD. Given how bad things were in Cleve last year he posted some great stats. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Kilroy 0 Posted July 25, 2006 My take: McGahee may have been a disappointment last season, but he managed to rush for over 1200 yards on 300-plus carries for the first time in his career. With the conservative approach Jauron brings to the offense, you can expect McGahee to carry the ball nearly 350 times this season. At 4.0 yards a carry, that would be 1400 yards rushing. Expect McGahee to finish with somewhere between 1300-1550 this season. After rushing for 13 touchdowns as a rookie, McGahee's total dropped to 5 last year. Given some stability at the quarterback position, he should be able to find the endzone 8-10 times on the ground in 2006. More On Buffalo Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
SmartassBoiler 0 Posted July 25, 2006 My take:McGahee may have been a disappointment last season, but he managed to rush for over 1200 yards on 300-plus carries for the first time in his career. With the conservative approach Jauron brings to the offense, you can expect McGahee to carry the ball nearly 350 times this season. At 4.0 yards a carry, that would be 1400 yards rushing. Expect McGahee to finish with somewhere between 1300-1550 this season. After rushing for 13 touchdowns as a rookie, McGahee's total dropped to 5 last year. Given some stability at the quarterback position, he should be able to find the endzone 8-10 times on the ground in 2006. More On Buffalo I actually read that yesterday. It's a good analysis. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
mdubz 0 Posted July 25, 2006 i think he can get 1,600 yards and 10 TDs. last year, he played way under his draft position; this year, i think he plays over it. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Whyamiabillsfan 0 Posted July 26, 2006 As a 2005 Bills season ticket holder, I can honestly tell you that McGahee had only one reason he didn't live up to his ADP last year. The reason: the utterly implausible, glue-sniffing-induced playcalling of the worst, WORST head coach in the history of the NFL: Mike Mularkey. Terrible, terrible, terrible. Everytime the Bills would get into McGahee territory, there would be some bullsh!t call where Losman would try to force a ball in between ten defenders. It's common sense that you hand your stud running back the rock inside the 5. Mularkey tended to think otherwise. I should've just wiped my a$$ with my season tickets and stuck them to the face of Mularkey's wife. It would've been more useful and entertaining. McGahee stopped trying because Mularkey didn't have a clue what he was doing. I'll probably pass on McGahee this year, but if Jauron is the 1/50th of the coach that Mularkey was, McGahee will have double-digit touchdowns. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Rye & Leaf 0 Posted July 26, 2006 I didn't follow the Bills offseason too closely, but didn't they reach for a safety in the first round and lose their most experienced offensive weapon? This is all you need to know, OK? http://www.buffalobills.com/includes/ifram...%3Bproto%3Drtsp Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
