Fantasy history lesson

[PhoenixColts 0]

I was just thinking about previous players who were fantasy studs, were projected high, and didn't perform the next year. Everyone's talking about the 1st round RBs as being safe picks, but I wouldn't be too sure. It's just something to consider when picking your "sure things".

 

Curtis Martin:

1995: 15 TDs

1996: 17 TDs

1997: 5 TDs

 

Looked pretty consistent in '95 & '96, and was drafted very high in '97, to some very frustrated owners. Martin regained in 2004, only to disappoint again in 2005:

 

2004: 1942 total yards, 14 TDs (led NFL in rushing yds)

2005: 853 total yards, 5 TDs

 

I remember in 2004, Ahman Green was all the buzz. He had just come off a great year, and was supposed to be a lock for a Top 3 back. Here's what happened:

 

2003: 2250 total yards, 20 TDs

2004: 1438 total yards, 8 TDs

 

In fact, here's a summary of some preseason rankings over the last 2 years, and how the players actually ranked at the end of the season. I will list as:

Preseason rank (based on aggregate of various sources) - Player: Actual end of season rank (fantasy points, non-PPR)

 

2004:

1: Priest Holmes - 11

2: LaDanian Tomlinson - 3

3: Ahman Green - 15

4: Shaun Alexander - 1

5: Deuce McAllister - 19

6: Clinton Portis - 14

7: Edgerrin James - 5

8: Fred Taylor - 20

9: Jamal Lewis - 22

10: Kevan Barlow - 25

 

Unless you picked Alexander, LT, or James this year, your Top 10 pick was a bust.

 

2005:

1: LaDanian Tomlinson - 4

2: Shaun Alexander - 1

3: Priest Holmes - 29

4: Edgerrin James - 5

5: Willis McGahee - 14

6: Deuce McAllister - 46

7: Domanick Davis - 17

8: Corey Dillon - 16

9: Jamal Lewis - 25

10: Clinton Portis - 6

 

Again, Alexander, LT, and James looked like safe picks, with the addition of Portis. The other 6 Top 10 players: duds.

 

Other observations of the above lists:

In both years, Chiefs' RB was preranked as Top 3, never finished in the Top 10. (can LJ buck the trend?)

In both years, Deuce McAllister was ranked in the Top 6, never finished in the Top 18. (supposed to ruin Bush's chances of being the featured back?)

Alexander and Tomlinson are the only RBs to be projected as Top 5 in both years, and end up as Top 5.

 

Mainly, most Top 10 RBs before the season don't end up being Top 10 RBs at the end of the season. So how many of this year's Top 10 will actually be Top 10 performers?

[waterwolves 0]

I have heard this argument before and it is a valid argument. It seems to me that RB's are a coin flip so why not go WR, WR and then pick up 3 straight RBs in the nxt three rounds. You could get T. jones, Lewis, Taylor in rounds 3,4 and 5 respectively.

[BlackPlague 1]

I have heard this argument before and it is a valid argument. It seems to me that RB's are a coin flip so why not go WR, WR and then pick up 3 straight RBs in the nxt three rounds. You could get T. jones, Lewis, Taylor in rounds 3,4 and 5 respectively.

 

Because the same thing is true of WRs, Einstein. Every year, at every position, there is high turnover. This is the most retarded reason I've ever seen to draft WR/WR with your first two picks.

 

If you want to go WR/WR, do it for the reasoning that there are no good RBs left and 2 stud WRs are sitting there.

[paripona 3]

Is anyone willing to do the research on the last five years??

 

Interesting stuff....

[PhoenixColts 0]

Because the same thing is true of WRs, Einstein. Every year, at every position, there is high turnover. This is the most retarded reason I've ever seen to draft WR/WR with your first two picks.

 

That is absolutely correct. My post was just about RBs, but WRs are the same. Take a look:

 

2004:

1: Randy Moss - 19

2: Torry Holt - 6

3: Marvin Harrison - 5

4: Terrell Owens - 4

5: Chad Johnson - 9

6: Hines Ward - 30

7: Santana Moss - 33

8: Joe Horn - 3

9: Darrell Jackson - 13

10: Laveranues Coles - 41

 

2005:

1: Randy Moss - 14

2: Terrell Owens - 31

3: Torry Holt - 7

4: Marvin Harrison - 6

5: Chad Johnson - 4

6: Javon Walker - 155

7: Joe Horn - 58

8: Andre Johnson - 48

9: Reggie Wayne - 19

10: Nate Burleson - 89

[PWFFL 0]

someone should do the QB's too

 

Its really interesting to see

[PhoenixColts 0]

someone should do the QB's too

 

Its really interesting to see

 

OK:

 

2004:

1: Daunte Culpepper - 2

2: Peyton Manning - 1

3: Michael Vick - 13

4: Matt Hasslebeck - 12

5: Donovan McNabb - 3

6: Steve McNair - ?? (Only got stats for Top 25, which he wasn't in)

7: Marc Bulger - 11

8: Aaron Brooks - 9

9: Brett Favre - 5

10: Trent Green - 4

 

2005:

1: Peyton Manning - 3

2: Daunte Culpepper - 35

3: Donovan McNabb - 20

4: Trent Green - 12

5: Marc Bulger - 22

6: Brett Favre - 15

7: Tom Brady - 2

8: Matt Hasslebeck - 4

9: Kerry Collins - 9

10: Aaron Brooks - 18

13: Carson Palmer - 1

 

Summary: Preseason player rankings are crap. Pick who you like, and don't pay much attention to experts' lists and ADP (which usually mimics experts' lists).

[mgs316 14]

It's all about Marvin baby.

[PhoenixColts 0]

It's all about Marvin baby.

 

You know who always outperforms his prerank? Eddie Kennison.

 

2004:

Preseason rank: 43

Actual rank: 18

 

2005:

Preseason rank: 30

Actual rank: 17

 

2006:

Preseason rank: 26

Actual rank: 16?

[Freak Jones 0]

You know who always outperforms his prerank? Eddie Kennison.

 

2004:

Preseason rank: 43

Actual rank: 18

 

2005:

Preseason rank: 30

Actual rank: 17

 

2006:

Preseason rank: 26

Actual rank: 16?

 

15 more years and he'll be #1.

[Peens 0]

If you're picking at the end of a 12 team draft instead of taking a stab at one of those RB's who more than likely will bust (L Jordan) I rather take a stab at a CJ or S.Smith. I know the wr's could bust as well but I like my odds alot better with these guys than I do the RB's. Just ask the JJ and KJ owners from last year.

[carwash 0]

had to "bump" more people need to read this!

[Ilov80s 0]

So, you're saying I shouldn't of taken Larry Johnson with the 2nd pick?

[flatidea 0]

Because the same thing is true of WRs, Einstein.

 

Holy shnike. I'm amazed not only does Albert Einstein play FF, but he comes to the forums as well. I am truly humbled.

[tt1010 0]

This is some good information that essentially takes the pressure off of the first few rounds. So maybe it's not so much who you draft, but how you draft.

 

Any interset in flipping this around? Scoping out who went from "dud" to "stud"? What were the circumstances and the situation? That could be FF gold

[RLLD 3,455]

You know who always outperforms his prerank? Eddie Kennison.

 

2004:

Preseason rank: 43

Actual rank: 18

 

2005:

Preseason rank: 30

Actual rank: 17

 

2006:

Preseason rank: 26

Actual rank: 16?

 

[nadnewob 1]

This is truly great stuff.

[GobbleDog 822]

Because the same thing is true of WRs, Einstein. Every year, at every position, there is high turnover. This is the most retarded reason I've ever seen to draft WR/WR with your first two picks.

 

That's true, if you're comparing the top 10 RBs and 10 WRs and how they finished. Yes, they're both inconsistent. But you should be comparing the RBs ranked 9-10 to WRs ranked 1-2, since that's your real choice in the late 1st round. For example:

 

Which is more likely to happen? L Jordan finishing among the top 10 RBs or S Smith finishing among the top 10 WRs? Call me crazy, but I think Smith is more likely. Heck, he's probably more likely to finish in the top 5 than Jordan is finishing in the top 10 among RBs.

[mtammen 0]

Which is more likely to happen? L Jordan finishing among the top 10 RBs or S Smith finishing among the top 10 WRs? Call me crazy, but I think Smith is more likely. Heck, he's probably more likely to finish in the top 5 than Jordan is finishing in the top 10 among RBs.

 

I believe the point of the post is not to trust the preseason rankings. Do your homework and figure out the players you think are most likely to be good.

 

Also if you take a WR instead of a RB, you are betting him being number 1. That's why you are taking him as the number 1 WR.

[zmanzzzz 1]

good thread

[RamslovaMartzhata 3]

Bush @ 1.7

[SmartassBoiler 0]

Bush @ 1.7

 

BART SAID 1.4

 

[Ilov80s 0]

This is some good information that essentially takes the pressure off of the first few rounds. So maybe it's not so much who you draft, but how you draft.

 

Any interset in flipping this around? Scoping out who went from "dud" to "stud"? What were the circumstances and the situation? That could be FF gold

 

I will take a look at the last few years and see what players rocketed into the top 12 after being undervalued in preseason rankings.

 

2005

2. Larry Johnson: ranked 31st. 3rd year player given 1st oppurtunity to be feature back

7. Rudi Johnson: ranked 16. Finished with nearly exact same numbers in 04. Viewed as boring or low upside?

8. Lamont Jordan: ranked 15. Career backup moved to new team.

9. Thomas Jones: ranked 23. Became feature back after departure of ATrain and holdout/injury of Benson.

10.Mike Anderson: ranked 26. Named Broncos starter in preseason and never looked back.

11. Steven Jackson: ranked 18. 2nd year player who received first chance as a starter

12. Warrick Dunn: ranked 21. Consistently underrated veteran.

 

2004

2. Tiki Barber: ranked 23. Veteran coming off a mediocre on a bad team. New coach brought in.

4. Curtis Martin: ranked 21. Veteran coming off a mediocre year.

7. Corey Dillon: ranked 15. Veteran coming to a new team after a disappointing season.

8. Rudi Johnson: ranked 13. 4th year player coming off an impressive finish in 04. 1st year as stater.

9. Willis McGahee: ranked 37. 2nd year player given first chance to start.

10. Brian Westbrook: ranked 14. 3rd year back getting first chance to start

 

2003

I used FFToday for 05 and 04 projections. They don't provide projections for 03 and using Google the only cheatsheet from 03 I could find was from thefantasymasters.com Either it was a very predictable year or the list was compiled by a genius. The only player to crack the top 12 was Stephen Davis. He was a veteran back entering a new team. He was projected at 18.

 

So what are the small trends we can see with this very limited data?

 

- Veterans coming off down years and players with limited playing time who are given their first oppurtunity to be the full time starters appear to be the players most likely to overcome their projections and finish in the top 12. The players getting their first job as starters got there via different means: injury to starter, earned the nod over veteran, moved to a new team or in Thomas Jones odd case: the holdout of a rookie/cutting of a veteran.

 

- Another note is that the players who did bust thru were ranked no worse then 23rd (with LJ and McGahee being the exceptions due to the fact they started the year as backups and earned the starting job midyear).

 

-Mike Anderson is interesting as he could be seen as both a veteran coming off some down years and/or an experienced back given a surprising chance to start.

 

Who do I see this year that fits the bill as a veteran coming off a down year or as an experienced back given his first oppurtunity to be a feature back?

 

- Frank Gore (19) has unseated Kevan Barlow. He will obviously be compared to McGahee due to the brutal knee injuries and the U connection. Gore was actually considered a much better player then McGahee and compares more to Westbrook then any of the other backs on this list. He can catch balls and juke defenders much the way Westy can. Also has the tag of injury concern like Westy. He is more powerful and explosive IMO. SanFran's beefed up o-line also makes this a very intriguing option.

 

- Chester Taylor (20) fits very well into the Lamont Jordan mold. He was solid in Baltimore, but never could do enough to wrestle away the starting job from Lewis. Much like Jordan never did enough to unseat Martin. Both are good receivers out the backfield, but still pack enough power to get GL carries. You have to love the additions made to the oline.

 

- Corey Dillon (23) is back on the list and looks to fend off Maroney and have another bounce back year. I dont know if there is a precedent for 2 bounce back fantasy seasons, but Dillon appears ready and capable.

 

There are a few players that don't quite fit the mold for one reason or another, but I feel could still crack the top 12.

 

- Fred Taylor (32) has earned the label Fragile Fred, but he has been much more consistent then many at FFToday give him credit for. When he is healthy (which is all the talk out of Jax camp) he has consistently piled up yards. His ranking could be moved up with Greg Jones' season ending injury which would put him closer to the "cutoff" of 23.

 

- Jamal Lewis (26) is back in Baltimore (much to the dismay of many Ravens fans) and needs to prove himself this year. Injuries and off-field issues are behind him and if he is to ever bounce back, then it will be in 06. He is 3 spots off the "cutoff" but given the very limited amount of statistical data here, we can easily make an exception for the last man to rush for 2,000 yards in a season.

 

- DeShaun Foster (25) is odd because maybe he already had his chance to start last year. Maybe not. He is hurt so often that its really hard to say what kind of an oppurtunity he has ever been given. It doesn't seem any Panthers back can ever stay healthy, so this is a concern especially with a highly touted rookie pushing him.

 

- Tatum Bell (28) has the explosive ability to be a top 12 back and few will argue that. The question is can he ever do all the small things, be tough enough, and get fortunate enough to get 300 carries. Much like Larry Johnson, he might just be an injury away from stardom. He can likely be had on the cheap and might be a risk worth taking.

 

- Mike Bell (35) should be higher IMO. He is past the cut-off and a rookie, but I will give him the pass on being a rookie based on Portis and Mike Anderson's history. Mike Bell could easily duplicate Mike Anderson's 05 run.

 

- Warrick Dunn (16) is still a bit undervalued by the fantasy community and could easily finish top 12.

 

- Willie Parker (17) doesn't quite fit the mold as he was a borderline feature back in 05. With the addition of GL carries, he is now 100% the man in Pitt and could see a major jump in stats.

 

What do you guys think? Input? Analysis? Problems?

[Ilov80s 0]

This post took a bit of research. I'm not gonna let it fall off the mainpage without even 1 response!

This is not getting moved out for another 15 "rate my team threads"...mark my words!

[hotdogcollarsdotcom 0]

first of all, Phoenix you need to quit your day job and write for a FF mag/website. Seriously, all i ever hear the "experts" talk about is "i know this" and "heres what will happen this year". But, no one, and I mean NO ONE, ever goes back to see who was right and who was wrong. I think its because if we ever found out how often these "experts" were wrong, we'd stop listening to them.

 

Anyway, great stuff.

 

80s - Valid points and some great stuff too. One thing that i think we can get out of this info is consistency. In other words, which picks represent the greatest risk vs the most solid consistency in your draft. That way you can balance your team with guys who are consistent, but unspectacular and those who are inconsistent but potentially explosive.

 

Also, and i think someone else touched on this, but it could help dispell a number of myths about drafting certain positions in certain draft spots. For example, drafting a top WR is much safer than a tier 2 or 3 RB.

[Ilov80s 0]

80s - Valid points and some great stuff too. One thing that i think we can get out of this info is consistency. In other words, which picks represent the greatest risk vs the most solid consistency in your draft. That way you can balance your team with guys who are consistent, but unspectacular and those who are inconsistent but potentially explosive.

 

Also, and i think someone else touched on this, but it could help dispell a number of myths about drafting certain positions in certain draft spots. For example, drafting a top WR is much safer than a tier 2 or 3 RB.

 

I think it does show that when targeting your 2nd and 3rd backs, there are certain players that certain players that are more likely to give you big results. Skip the rookies (Addai) and average backs (Droughns) and aim for the experienced 1st year starters (Gore) and vets looking for a return to form (Dillon). It just looks like the odds of hitting a homerun are better. I would love to look at this thread in December and see how the trend played out in 06.

[mtammen 0]

Excellent work OP!

[PhoenixColts 0]

first of all, Phoenix you need to quit your day job and write for a FF mag/website. Seriously, all i ever hear the "experts" talk about is "i know this" and "heres what will happen this year". But, no one, and I mean NO ONE, ever goes back to see who was right and who was wrong. I think its because if we ever found out how often these "experts" were wrong, we'd stop listening to them.

 

Anyway, great stuff.

 

Thanks! Glad my efforts are appreciated.

[dynastybaby 0]

Is anyone willing to do the research on the last five years??

 

Interesting stuff....

 

 

I can tell you this. Go back & look at the top RB's in fantasy football when they had a career best year & see what they did the following season. Once they had their monster years, they either crashed the following year or had a decent dip in totals.

 

Jamal Lewis 2000 yrd season following year crap

Terrell Davis 2000 yrd season the following year crap

Priest Holmes 27 TD's the following year huge drop off

Barry Sanders 2000 yrd season the following year huge drop off

Emmitt Smith 25 TD's next year drop off

Faulk 26 TD's next year 21 & then the toilet

Jamal Anderson 1800 yds next year blown out knee

Ricky Williams 1800 yds next year crap

Ahman Green 1800 yds next year crap

Deuce McAllister great 2004 blows out his knee 2005

 

The list goes on & on... I still believe in Alexander, but I think expecting 20+ TD's & 2000 total yrds is foolish

[Ilov80s 0]

The list goes on & on... I still believe in Alexander, but I think expecting 20+ TD's & 2000 total yrds is foolish

 

Same was true of LT after 03. He took a slight dip in 04, only to bounce back in 05. How does the affect LJ? Does his half season count or not???

[FFOpie 0]

Lots of hard work in this thread, nice job

[PhoenixColts 0]

The list goes on & on... I still believe in Alexander, but I think expecting 20+ TD's & 2000 total yrds is foolish

 

I agree, but even 1650 yds and 17 TDs could lead the league.

[OuttaLuck 0]

You know who always outperforms his prerank? Eddie Kennison.

 

2004:

Preseason rank: 43

Actual rank: 18

 

2005:

Preseason rank: 30

Actual rank: 17

 

2006:

Preseason rank: 26

Actual rank: 16?

 

Great work, Phoenix and Ilov80s--it's this kind of post and this type of information that makes FF Today so helpful.

[NAn 39]

Semi-Related Topic

[MadLove 0]

first of all, Phoenix you need to quit your day job and write for a FF mag/website. Seriously, all i ever hear the "experts" talk about is "i know this" and "heres what will happen this year". But, no one, and I mean NO ONE, ever goes back to see who was right and who was wrong. I think its because if we ever found out how often these "experts" were wrong, we'd stop listening to them.

 

Anyway, great stuff.

 

80s - Valid points and some great stuff too. One thing that i think we can get out of this info is consistency. In other words, which picks represent the greatest risk vs the most solid consistency in your draft. That way you can balance your team with guys who are consistent, but unspectacular and those who are inconsistent but potentially explosive.

 

Also, and i think someone else touched on this, but it could help dispell a number of myths about drafting certain positions in certain draft spots. For example, drafting a top WR is much safer than a tier 2 or 3 RB.

 

No doubt about it - excellent work, Phoenix

 

It's great to see a well-presented manifestation of my own thoughts regarding FF drafting... such analysis reaffirms my belief that FF is more of an art than a science (although both surely come into play).

 

Speaking of Einstein, I believe it was he who once said: "Science without religion is lame - religion without science is blind"

 

whoa, now hold on - not looking to rile-up the goodly atheists...

[The Moose 0]

I analyze this kind of thing every year before I draft. It's not an exact science, but it's helpful. Most experienced fantasy players do understand that nothing is a sure bet and no expert will even get half of their picks right. That's why we play the game, right? If we knew everything ahead of time, then there would be no reason to even have a draft. It's like predicting the Super Bowl winner before the regular season, teams that look good on paper often dissappoint.

[football_scooter 0]

I had Ahman in 2004. I believe...I believe...

[mquandt 0]

Good stuff guys. Thanks for the hard work.

[fstop 0]

That's true, if you're comparing the top 10 RBs and 10 WRs and how they finished. Yes, they're both inconsistent. But you should be comparing the RBs ranked 9-10 to WRs ranked 1-2, since that's your real choice in the late 1st round. For example:

 

Which is more likely to happen? L Jordan finishing among the top 10 RBs or S Smith finishing among the top 10 WRs? Call me crazy, but I think Smith is more likely. Heck, he's probably more likely to finish in the top 5 than Jordan is finishing in the top 10 among RBs.

 

Also, and i think someone else touched on this, but it could help dispell a number of myths about drafting certain positions in certain draft spots. For example, drafting a top WR is much safer than a tier 2 or 3 RB.

 

If you're picking at the end of a 12 team draft instead of taking a stab at one of those RB's who more than likely will bust (L Jordan) I rather take a stab at a CJ or S.Smith. I know the wr's could bust as well but I like my odds alot better with these guys than I do the RB's. Just ask the JJ and KJ owners from last year.

 

I think those of you who came away with the conslusion that this research proves that a WR is a safer pick than a RB missed the point. The evidence given shows that a WR is no safer than a RB. They are an equal risk at the end of the first round.

 

Comparing the top 3 receivers taken with the bottom 3 RB's (8-10) shows that one RB performed equal to or better than they were drafted (Clinton Portis in 2005) but none of the top 3 WR performed equal to or better than the average draft position. That may not be fair since a #1 can't perform better than #1, so I took a look at the average perfomance.

 

On average, the bottom 3 RB pick performed like a 20th ranked RB, and the top 3 WR pick performed like a 14th ranked WR, which seems about the same level of performance to me; both performing about 10 players or 1 round lower than expected.

 

You may like or feel safer with Chad Johnson or Steve Smith but the evidence doesn't support you will be. Just ask the Randy Moss owners for the last two years.

[NAn 39]

This is definitely a good topic with solid info/input that board could use more of, but I think some false inferences are being drawn:

 

ADP

No, you shouldn't follow the so called 'experts' re: ADP and their opinions on where players should fall.

But that's just want novice FFers do.

 

I participate in a mock every year with folks from the board and we do it long before any 'expert' rankings are revealed...even that early on, ADPs are surprisingly similiar to what they are now, 3 months later (aside from major injuries, recent breakouts, breaking news, etc. of course).

 

More saavy FFers use ADP to maximize their drafts by getting more value for each pick.

For example, say you think Addai will breakout and be a top10 rb...so do you take him in the 1st round, amongst top10 picks? Or Reggie Brown in the 2nd round b/c you think he'll be a top10 wr? No. you take each closer to his ADP, Addai in 4th, Brown in 7th/8th.

 

Meanwhile getting solid value for other players that could help you in rnds 1-3 or rnds 1-6.

 

That is what ADP is for.

 

By all means, 'take the guys you like or feel will do well'...but while you're at it also 'take guys others like or feel will do well' (and might just do well) in early rnds, and still get the guys you like.

 

'MYTH' OF TOP WRs V 2ND TIER RBs

Some are looking at these trends and discounting that a top WR is 'safer' than a 2nd tier RB...going as far as to call it a 'myth'.

If anything, Phoenix's posts have shown that all positions have significant amount of turnover from one year to the next.

 

So to say that these trends say it's a 'myth' that 'a top WR is safer than a 2nd tier RB' is missing the point.

I see the point of the trends as it's best to get the most consistent player....regardless of position.

 

So the myth may come from fact that their are a few wr's Holt/Harrison for several years and CJ as of late...who have been consistently in top5-10 at their position for several years (5+) running.

 

Now if you picked an Owens or Moss, who is in and out of top10 as your 'safe' pick over a rb then there's a problem.

 

Alexander/LT are amongst those RBs who have been as consistent amongst RBs for comparable amount of time. Others like Jlew/DD/Priest/Ahman/Deuce/Tiki/Cumar only were consistently high for only 2-3 seasons.

 

So, no getting a top WR is not necessarily safer than getting a 2nd tier RB.

 

But getting a player, regardless of position, who consistently finishes at a high level, is safer than getting a player, regardless of position, who does not consistently finishes at a high level.

 

Sounds kinda silly and obvious put like that, but that's essentially what we're trying to do.

 

Some great stuff by 80's and Phoenix, next step would be the challenging one...doing research to find commonalities or differences in what makes a player 'consistently' perform high v a player who performs well one year, but drops out the next.

 

The key here is to pt out the negative with the positive to get a good picture.

 

80's already did some of this where he finds trends of vets coming off down years or young guys with first chance at being starter.

 

You mention Dillon for 'vets coming off down years'...but what about Deuce who had a slight letdown in '04 after nice '03 season but was a huge letdown in '05? Or Ahman Green who was a monster in '03, let down in '04, then huge letdown in '05 missing much of season.

 

You mention Jordan for 'young guys with first chance at being starter'...well what about Barlow who tanked after Hearst left. Or Pittman who was suppose to be the man when he left cards to join bucs? (Not to mention Benson, Foster, Dayne, Duckett who couldn't even unseat the vets ahead of them on depth chart).

 

It's important to pt out the successes of a certain hypothesis...just as an important, especially if you're going to use it as a basis for future drafting, to pt out the failures so can get an honest look at the 'consistency' of the trend one way or another.

 

Again, good thread/info, solid analysis/input by Phoenix/80's...looking forward to more in this thread and others throughout the season.