Current Top 12's

[The Moz 69]

1. S. Alexander - schedule , line , offense , defense , coaching - has it all

2. L. Tomlinson - same as it ever was in SD

3. L. Johnson - Lost a ton on oline and offense

4. S. Jackson - Without Martz should shine

5. C. Portis - back at practice ( limited ) and Gibbs thinks he starts week 1

6. R. Brown - great reciever and power runner

7. L. Jordan - looks like he could really shine this season

8. R. Johnson - not as sold on it but he should be solid

9. F. Gore - My sleeper of the season

10. W. McGahee - look slike he did in 04

11. C. Williams - still no GL carries for Caddy

12. T. Barber - 31 and i just cannot see him being all world again.

 

 

 

QB

 

1. P. Manning - duh

2. T. Brady - ditto

3. C. Palmer - ditto

4. D. Culpepper - My Sleeper QB as i think he and Chambers really connect this season.

5. D. McNabb - Without TO he shined before and will again

6. K. Warner - say what you wanna - but if healthy the man will average 300 yards and 2 TD's

7. M. Hasselbeck - ditto last season passing stats

8. M. Bulger - injury prone but great offense.

9. E. Manning - not as good as last seasopn but IMO still really solid

10. A. Brooks - Moss will make Brooks look good.

11. C. Frye - Laugh it up on this one - I really this guy will be great.

12. M. Vick - finally his break out season ??? - in 4 point pa td leagues he is golden.

 

 

WR's

 

1. T. Holt - consistent !

2. M. Harrison - consisent !

3. C. Johnson - consistent !

4. R. Moss - greatest upside IMO of all wrs

5. TO - second greatest upside.

6. C. Chambers - Will break ut this season and become star.

7. S. Smith -

8. R. Wayne - Manning will pass alot this season.

9. A. Boldin - consistent when healthy and warners favorite target.

10. R. Williams - martzs guy usually gets great numbers

11. L. Fitzgerald - a TD monster that might lose yardage to Boldin.

12. J. Horn - With Stallworth gone ???

 

ETA S. Smith

[UberAlias 0]

12. T. Barber - 31 and i just cannot see him being all world again.

QB

 

I always wondered who those morons who draft in those Yahoo leagues were. You clearl;y don't watch football. LOL. Gore!!! Haaaaaa!!!

[USGrant 0]

I always wondered who those morons who draft in those Yahoo leagues were. You clearl;y don't watch football. LOL. Gore!!! Haaaaaa!!!

 

Time will tell. I sure hope The Moz bookmarks your ridiculous response so he can face plant you with it later.

[RicemanX 20]

I don't think 2. Brady and 3. Palmer should be duhs.

Tell me how Brady will have anything near a top 5 year.

[The Moz 69]

Please list all the running backs that were 31 and had top 10 FF seasons ? CuMar , Payton ???????????????

 

I don't think 2. Brady and 3. Palmer should be duhs.

Tell me how Brady will have anything near a top 5 year.

Palmer looks great

 

and Brady IMO is the games greatest QB and I can see anyone out there that will put up a better year other than Peyton.

[The Hood 9]

WR's

 

1. T. Holt - consistent !

2. M. Harrison - consisent !

3. C. Johnson - consistent !

4. R. Moss - greatest upside IMO of all wrs

5. TO - second greatest upside.

6. C. Chambers - Will break ut this season and become star.

7. R. Wayne - Manning will pass alot this season.

8. A. Boldin - consistent when healthy and warners favorite target.

9. R. Williams - martzs guy usually gets great numbers

10. L. Fitzgerald - a TD monster that might lose yardage to Boldin.

11. J. Horn - With Stallworth gone ???

12. D. Driver - favres #1 guy and he will be throwing alot.

 

 

No Steve Smith?

[Zangief 0]

Who were all the running backs that had 2300 total yards at 30? Start with that list and then see how much they fell. Even if Tiki has 30 yards a game less he'll be better than half of the guys you have above him at the very least. S Jax 4th is pure comedy.

[jrokh 571]

no edge in the top 12???

[mtammen 0]

I always wondered who those morons who draft in those Yahoo leagues were. You clearl;y don't watch football. LOL. Gore!!! Haaaaaa!!!

 

You are kidding right? Gore is widely considered the 3rd (yes better than Willis) best back in the past 8 or so years to come out of the U. Edge being number 1. You obviously know nothing. Gore is a good pick for top 10.

[jkg31885 0]

well i dont know about u but there is a gentleman out of THE U named EDGE who could possibly fit in the top 12. I understand that Jamal Lewis hasnt been the same since jail but I imagine him being slightly better than Frank Gore.

[UberAlias 0]

You are kidding right? Gore is widely considered the 2nd (yes better than Willis) best back in the past 8 or so years to come out of the U. Edge being number 1. You obviously know nothing. Gore is a good pick for top 10.

 

I was talking about Gore over Tiki, dumb ass. Yes, I know who Gore is. He's a good back, but over Tiki? Come on now. That's plain silly.

 

Time will tell. I sure hope The Moz bookmarks your ridiculous response so he can face plant you with it later.

 

Rediculous response for laughing at Tiki at 12???? Okay.... Please do. Book mark it. Take all those backs ahead of Tiki -go ahead, rub it in my face. Tiki doubters have a GREAT track record of rubbing it in people's faces.

[The Hood 9]

You are kidding right? Gore is widely considered the 2nd (yes better than Willis) best back in the past 8 or so years to come out of the U. Edge being number 1. You obviously know nothing. Gore is a good pick for top 10.

 

 

 

Who exactly has considered this? Where is Portis on the U hierarchy?

[mtammen 0]

I was talking about Gore over Tiki, dumb ass. Yes, I know who Gore is.

Rediculous response for laughing at Tiki at 12???? Okay.... Please do. Book mark it. Take your un proven backs behind poor offensive lines ahead of Tiki -go ahead, rub it in my face. Tiki doubters have a GREAT track record of rubbing it in people's faces at the end of the year.

 

 

I would like to refer you here:

 

http://www.fftodayforums.com/forum/index.p...=222528&st=

 

Moz still actually has way to many of the projected guys actually in the top 12. It's not impossible Tiki will be outside looking in. Though I would put him over 65% to make it in the top 10.

 

Who exactly has considered this? Where is Portis on the U hierarchy?

 

 

I forgot about him. Edge, Portis, Gore. Sorry. 3rd. I saw it in one of Wildman's articles, I swear. I just can't find it now.

[UberAlias 0]

I would like to refer you here:

 

http://www.fftodayforums.com/forum/index.p...=222528&st=

 

Moz still actually has way to many of the projected guys actually in the top 12. It's not impossible Tiki will be outside looking in. Though I would put him over 65% to make it in the top 10.

 

I forgot about him. Edge, Portis, Gore. Sorry. 3rd.

 

Of course it could happen. I don't think people watch a lot of Tiki. He is a phoenonimal back. He is also versitile and the focal point of what should be a very good offense. Obviously there are no guarantees, but there is very little downside. His is older, but with very little tread on his tires, and looked phoenominal down the stretch last season. He got better as the season went on, not worse, and looks every bit as good in the preseason. I see no reason to assume a big drop off unless you are inclined to do so.

[USGrant 0]

I would like to refer you here:

 

http://www.fftodayforums.com/forum/index.p...=222528&st=

 

Moz still actually has way to many of the projected guys actually in the top 12. It's not impossible Tiki will be outside looking in. Though I would put him over 65% to make it in the top 10.

 

I forgot about him. Edge, Portis, Gore. Sorry. 3rd. I saw it in one of Wildman's articles, I swear. I just can't find it now.

 

Great link, but it goes even deeper. Aside from Tiki's age, which is a HUGE reason to be warry of a dropoff from him this year, you have to look at the number of touches he had last year. A very common theme for post great year drop off is number of touches the previous year and Tiki goes over the 370 mark. There's a nice article on this in the site: http://www.fftoday.com/articles/special/06_rb_heavy.htm

Check it out.

Now for my bailout. Tiki is a special player, who plays with a lot of heart but I still am VERY concerned that father time is about to stuff him at the line.

[UberAlias 0]

Now for my bailout. Tiki is a special player, who plays with a lot of heart but I still am VERY concerned that father time is about to stuff him at the line.

 

Perhaps, but there were no signs of a slow down last season where he got better as the season went on. He also looks very sharp in the preseason. I think people underestimate how much wear and tear affects those stats for guys dropping off over 30, and Tiki has far less wear and tear compared to other backs. He really only has a few years of heavy load, and has already said he plans on retiring when he hits the point where his body starts to wear down. He's not there yet.

[Zangief 0]

For you "370 touch guys" why don't you go see how many touches Tomlinson and Alexander had last year.

 

As for that "bust list" link, what you see is that there were plenty of younger guys (McGahee, Barlow) that were ranked Top 10 and didn't deliver. How many drafts did McGahee, J Jones and K Jones go first round in last year? It certainly wasn't their age that held them back during the year.

 

Taking a guy who has been healthy for his career who is coming off a monster season in a prolific offense isn't about as easy a pick to make as their is. Or you can take the "darling", the guy that had 2 games against both SF and Sea last year and didn't rush for 100 yards TOTAL against either opponent. Tiki ran for more yards in one game against Seattle than S Jax did in two.

 

Can anyone be 100% positive about anything? No. Could Tiki blow out an ACL in Week 1? Sure. But everything we know right now makes him look like a much better choice than at LEAST 75% of the guys on this list. But then again, Moz didn't even think taht Steve Smith was a Top 12 receiver.

[USGrant 0]

For you "370 touch guys" why don't you go see how many touches Tomlinson and Alexander had last year.

 

I did. Alexander is likely to drop off as well, though out of top ten is a reach considering their schedule. Tomlinson, well he's a lot younger than the other two backs we are argueing about and I think was the best back in the draft this year. His biggest issues are his quarterback and recievers but when has this guy ever had a real supporting cast?

Look at some of the links. Think about the top ten backs for the draft last year and where they ended up. Is there a way to predict all this. Yes and no, I can only analyze trends. The trends are that only 3 or 4 of the preseason top ten backs will actually be in the top ten at the end of the season. Now you tell me, which of the top ten rated backs right now will ACTUALLY be a top ten back at the end of the season. I've pretty much stated I think TIKI is not gonna be in. I'll tell you another, Steven Jackson. Based on statistical analysis, the odds that I am correct are roughly double the odds that you are correct. 6 or 7 of these 10 backs we are all picking as studs will be duds, it's a fact. Now which ones will it be? You tell me.

[Zangief 0]

Your odds are absurd, you are assuming that the odds of any player that was ranked in the Top 10 being in the Top 10 are the same. And that isn't so, he isn't a guy that squeaked in. You're saying that the odds of a guy that rushed for 1800 yards and had 2300 total yards is the same as the guy who had 900 yards and is being ranked in the Top 10 because people think he will blossom.

 

So are you right that at least half of the perceived TOp 10 backs will bust? I bet you're right about that. 2 or 3 will get hurt and another 2 or 3 will underperform. There isn't anything to suggest that Tiki will be one of those 5 or 6.

 

By your logic you shouldn't draft ANYONE, because they are all likely to bust. But if you have to draft someone, Tiki is the choice. Even if he does have a 10% or 20% decline he will still be better than most of the guys on this list.

 

 

But if you DO want me to tell you the 6 that will bust, here they are free of charge.

 

Portis

S Jax

Lamont

Gore

McGahee

Rudi

[mikeso 0]

put down the crack pipe and sleep it off for a couple of days...

[Ilov80s 0]

well i dont know about u but there is a gentleman out of THE U named EDGE who could possibly fit in the top 12. I understand that Jamal Lewis hasnt been the same since jail but I imagine him being slightly better than Frank Gore.

 

I am sure thats what people said about Lamont Jordan last year.

 

Here is some input:

 

- According to Matt Waldman (the most knowledgable FF guru around), Gore was the reason Portis left Miami early and was considered more talented then McGahee. Ofcourse much has change since then. Still, you are an idiot if you discount Gore because he is an unknown.

 

- Gore perfectly fits the recent mold for breakout RBs who exceed their projections and finish in the top 12 (backups with limited experience, given first job as feature back, projected as the 19th back at his position).

 

- Norv Turner is the OC (Emmitt Smith, Ricky Williams, Stephen Davis, and Lamont Jordan).

 

- SanFran's Oline is greatly improved with the addition of Larry Allen and return of Jonas Jennings from injury.

 

- Gore has shown flashes of brilliance as he averaged 4.8 ypc on 121 carries last season.

see for yourself at Youtube.

 

Gore's catch against Colts

 

Gore 2 TDs

[adam smitty 0]

Please list all the running backs that were 31 and had top 10 FF seasons ? CuMar , Payton ???????????????

Palmer looks great

 

and Brady IMO is the games greatest QB and I can see anyone out there that will put up a better year other than Peyton.

 

 

I agreed with a lot of your rankings and comments until I read this. "games greatest qb"

[Ilov80s 0]

Your odds are absurd, you are assuming that the odds of any player that was ranked in the Top 10 being in the Top 10 are the same. And that isn't so, he isn't a guy that squeaked in. You're saying that the odds of a guy that rushed for 1800 yards and had 2300 total yards is the same as the guy who had 900 yards and is being ranked in the Top 10 because people think he will blossom.

 

Curtis Martin was the leading rusher in 2004.

Jamal Lewis ran for 2000 yards in 2003.

Ahman Green scored 20 TDs and had over 2100 total yards in 2003.

Deuce had over 2000 total yards in 2003.

Faulk had over 2000 yards and 20+ TDs in 2001.

 

Check their numbers the following years because they were nowhere near the top 12. Instead we saw runners like Travis Henry, Charlie Garner, Domanick Davis, Lamont Jordan, and Rudi Johnson take their places. Every year guys who seem like LOCKS to repeat end up falling out and being replaced by "nobodys". Thats the NFL RB merry-go-round. Some of the "nobodys" stick around and become stars like LT and Alexander. Most are just one or 2 hit wonders tho.