** Official College Football Wagering Thead **

[markblaz 0]

games tuesday, wednesday, thursday, & friday this week.

[phillybear 365]

For the Tuesday game, I played Tulsa (-5) for 3 units. I'll do a writeup tomorrow.

 

Basically, Tulsa is very underrated, won Conf USA last year and returned most of their team. So Miss strength of the offense is running, and Tulsa handled the best running team in college, Navy, a week and a half ago.

[Hurricane Ditka 0]

Uh oh. I have been on the sidelines during the week. But I too am taking Tulsa for the game and the 1st half. Also looking at the under.

[dain11279 930]

bump

[GiantsRule 0]

This is a first for me this season:

 

I'm fading both philly & Ditka. No solid reason for doing so either. Both have ridden So. Miss in previous weeks and I didn't think they were Tulsa backers when I put this in last night:

 

So. Miss ML (+190)

[phillybear 365]

Overall College YTD: 95-76-4; +35.92 units

Subset: 2 unit plays or higher: 39-24-1; +35.92 units

 

I was really disappointed in my decision making on Saturday, playing way too many 1st and 2nd half plays, turning what would have been a decent day into a splitting out day. I am getting into some bad habits, which I will try to correct going forward, and try to stick to my system and only my system.

 

Tuesday

 

Tulsa (-5) for 3 units WINNER!!!!!

 

Last night, there was about even action on the game, but this line is starting to drop, which to me is surprising. I would imagine that the stat people are looking at this game, see a somewhat even matchup, and will take the points. Also, none of the four favorites covering last week in the weekday games and the public wanting to take the more well know team, the one that was on TV last week seems to generating the line movement.

 

Tulsa is 6-1 ATS vs teams with a winning record in last 7

So Miss averages 4.8 yards per rush vs teams that allow 3.6 ypr

So Miss completes 54.4% of passes vs teams that allow 59.7%

So Miss averages 5.8 yards per play vs teams that allow 5.6

So Miss allows 3.8 ypr vs team that gain 3.7 ypr

So Miss allows 58.1% completions vs teams that complete 56.4%

So Miss allows 4.8 yards per play vs teams gain 4.8

Tulsa averages 4 yards per rush vs teams that allow 4.2 ypr

Tulsa completes 65.7% of passes vs teams that allow 61.8%

Tulsa averages 6.2 yards per play vs teams that allow 5.6

Tulsa allows 4.3 ypr vs team that gain 4.4 ypr

Tulsa allows 57.1% completions vs teams that complete 58.4%

Tulsa allows 5.0 yards per play vs teams gain 5.1

 

 

We know about So Miss, who struggled mightily last week vs Central Florida. Despite the mismatch on paper, needed a defensive score, a recovered fumble on a punt that lead to a FG, and a missed tackle led to a long TD pass to get most of their points. Lucky points. They also forced a fumble near the goal line as Central Florida was going in for a score. Basically, So Miss has a mismatch going into that game, got outplayed, got outstatted, and got lucky. Central Florida QB Moffet couldn’t hit hit Oprah’s ass with a paint gun from 2 feet away, and still got nearly 200 yards passing. More troubling is that Central Florida keyed on stopping So Miss only weapon on offense, RB Fletcher, who began the year as the 3rd string running back. They dared the So Miss passing game to beat them. And So Miss struggled to move the ball in the air.

 

Tulsa won this conference last year, and returned 16 starters, so the team is mostly intact. Tulsa beat up SF Austin 45-7 in game one, lost to a pretty good BYU team on the road 49-24, beat up North Texas 28-3 (outstatting them by over 300 yards), and beat Navy on the road in overtime. The impressive thing about the Navy game was that Tulsa outstatted them by about 100 yards, moved the ball up and down the field all day, and held the #1 running team in the country to 283 rushing, which isn’t bad at all. I remember watching the play by play for that game, and Tulsa’s QB Smith was throwing it all over Navy’s helpless defense. Tulsa blew red zone opportunities throughout that game, as it never should have been that close of a game. Also, Navy just hung 600+ yards of offense on UConn, and shredded Stanford the week before Tulsa, so holding Navy down in a very positive sign. Especially when you are laying less than a TD at home to a team that needs to run the ball to be successful. The Navy game will screw up a defenses running defense stats, but Tulsa more than held their own. In fact, despite the Navy game, Tulsa still has above average run defense stats.

 

Last year, Tulsa went into So Miss as a 12 point underdog, and won 34-17. Tulsa won time of possession 42 to 17, yardage 475 to 169, and first downs 26-11. Remember, this is mostly the same Tulsa team, and So Miss has not gotten any better, and it looks like they are really missing long time starting QB Almond this year. It’s not often that you get to see Tulsa on national TV, so this is a pretty big deal for the that program. So Miss in on national TV several times a year, especially on weekday games, so this is another game for them. I don’t think So Miss will be as flat as they were last week, but I think Tulsa will have the emotional edge anyway. Stat wise, Tulsa is a much better balanced team on offense. If they slow down Fletcher, this game could get ugly.

 

Lay the lumber. Good luck to all.

[Hurricane Ditka 0]

I took Tulsa -5.

 

I marked this game watching Southern Miss struggle against Central Florida. They got that cover because of a stupid pass by the worthless Central Florida QB.

[phillybear 365]

Both have ridden So. Miss in previous weeks and I didn't think they were Tulsa backers when I put this in last night:

 

Racking my memory here, but I believe that last week was the first time I played So Miss this year and this is the fourth straight game I am taking Tulsa. I lost one unit on them when the lost as a 4 point dog at BYU 49-24, had Tulsa around -18 for 3 units when they beat North Texas 28-3, and had one unit on Tulsa plus 5.5 vs Navy, and Tulsa won 24-23. I have quietly been a Tulsa backer this year.

[GiantsRule 0]

Racking my memory here, but I believe that last week was the first time I played So Miss this year and this is the fourth straight game I am taking Tulsa. I lost one unit on them when the lost as a 4 point dog at BYU 49-24, had Tulsa around -18 for 3 units when they beat North Texas 28-3, and had one unit on Tulsa plus 5.5 vs Navy, and Tulsa won 24-23. I have quietly been a Tulsa backer this year.

 

Enough with the facts! I'm trying to justify why I'm going to lose money tonight!

 

I'll be keeping an eye on live betting for hedging/middling opportunities. If So. Miss can draw first blood with a TD and then a defensive stop, I may be able to get a solid line on the Tulsa ML.

[KC Chef Jeff 0]

Central Florida QB Moffet couldn’t hit Oprah’s ass with a paint gun from 2 feet away, and still got nearly 200 yards passing....

 

 

 

Slight subject change: did anyone parlay the 2H for MNF GB @ Phi? Phi -7 and over 24 ALMOST came thru, the spread was a winner and the over pushed.

 

Will be a long year for Packer fans. Anyway, back to our regularly scheduled college football talk...

[teddytime 0]

Philly,

 

Any thought on the over under in the game it stated at 47 1/2 and is now at 45.5 I was at first thinking off the under but I think tha Tulsa will put up around 30 what do you think!

[phillybear 365]

Philly,

 

Any thought on the over under in the game it stated at 47 1/2 and is now at 45.5 I was at first thinking off the under but I think tha Tulsa will put up around 30 what do you think!

 

I can see Tulsa with 30+ points. I don't know if these teams will try to force some runs and chew time off the clock. I could see So Miss trying to ball control to keep Tulsa off the field. To be honest, I am not sure about the total for this game.

 

Good luck.

[teddytime 0]

I can see Tulsa with 30+ points. I don't know if these teams will try to force some runs and chew time off the clock. I could see So Miss trying to ball control to keep Tulsa off the field. To be honest, I am not sure about the total for this game.

 

Good luck.

 

 

Thanks Philly didn't know if you had any thoughts on it. I think I will stay away from the total and go with 3 units on Tulsa!!!

[Yer mom 2]

Greetings Fellas, back from Vegas where I took an absolute THUMPING! Drunk decisions led to larger than normal plays and I gave back 23 of the 41 Benjis that I was up for the season, very discouraging.

 

God I hate betting baseball, took the under this morning between Oaktown and Minny for 3 Benjis (im chasin!), got bailed out for that win, lemme tell ya. 1500 runners stranded in scoring position. I'll take it. No friggin chance Detroit takes game 1 at NYY, so im on that too.

 

On to ENTERTAINING wagering now. Despite the total dropping 2 points, im on the over. Tulsa has scored 24 points on the road twice and should probably score at least 28 tonight at home. Last year, So Miss had a 10-7 half time lead only to get murdered in the 2nd half and lose 34-17, so I think they will have some incentive to try and put up points early. My only concern is turnovers, and Apple and Cherry are both in this game (well, maybe not that bad) Stats stats stats...yada. I got buried with applying knowledge this weekend so ill spare you. Just throw touchdowns please guys.

 

Over 45.5 - 2 Benjis

 

 

Good luck!

[GiantsRule 0]

Greetings Fellas, back from Vegas where I took an absolute THUMPING! Drunk decisions led to larger than normal plays and I gave back 23 of the 41 Benjis that I was up for the season, very discouraging.

 

God I hate betting baseball, took the under this morning between Oaktown and Minny for 3 Benjis (im chasin!), got bailed out for that win, lemme tell ya. 1500 runners stranded in scoring position. I'll take it. No friggin chance Detroit takes game 1 at NYY, so im on that too.

 

On to ENTERTAINING wagering now. Despite the total dropping 2 points, im on the over. Tulsa has scored 24 points on the road twice and should probably score at least 28 tonight at home. Last year, So Miss had a 10-7 half time lead only to get murdered in the 2nd half and lose 34-17, so I think they will have some incentive to try and put up points early. My only concern is turnovers, and Apple and Cherry are both in this game (well, maybe not that bad) Stats stats stats...yada. I got buried with applying knowledge this weekend so ill spare you. Just throw touchdowns please guys.

 

Over 45.5 - 2 Benjis

Good luck!

 

I'll be taking this play through in-game betting. Just hoping they start off slow in the first few minutes.

[mikeso 0]

i think this game will be a high scoring game....

 

to make the long story short...im took so. miss +5 220/200 and so. miss ML +180 and over 45 55/240

 

good luck everyone

[American Chewy 98]

Season

61-46-5 +17.995 units

2+ plays 12-11-1 +3.995 units

 

3 straight winning weeks!

 

i'm gonna ride philly/ditka tonight

 

Tulsa -5 2 units WINNER!!

[phillybear 365]

Locking in a couple of games early.

 

Hawaii (-9.5) for 3 units

Kent (-24) for 3 units

New Mex St (Pk) for 3 units

 

Big surprise, I'm on Hawaii again. But they've covered every game, and I'll take them again. Nevada is forcing tons of turnovers lately, 9-1 advantage and winning as a result, since they are not outgaining anyone in yardage. I don't think their luck will hold up. Hawaii is moving the ball for 500 yards on everyone, including good defenses like Hawaii and Boise St. They will win by double digits.

 

Kent is the class of the MAC this year, and would have scored 50 points on a decent Akron defense last week if it wasn't for turnovers. Their defense has been decent for a couple of years, but their offense playing at a high level right now. Temple actually covered last week vs Vanderbilt, so a little line value here with Kent.

 

The very much improved New Mex St already covered two games for me as a 3 unit game, and I'll try them again. New Mex St is the #1 offense in college, and will outscore Idaho. Idaho had a phoney win last week over an awful Utah St team, as Idaho had a pair of game changing long defensive TDs. Utah St played Idaho even last week in yardage.

[ROCKET 0]

I shouldn't even bother tonight as I'm on a serious bad streak and really don't have a strong feeling on the game either way. I'll go with Tulsa too as So. Miss did look like crap vs UCF who is only slightly better than that sheit ass team GB I took last night getting 12. I don't think I've seen a more pathetic performance since , well since the Raiders week 1. Note to self: bet against AZ, GB and Oakland a lot this year as they are the Buffalo/Temple's of the NFL

[art schlichter's bookie 0]

took Tulsa too

 

Already on Kent as well, PB.

 

Temple is horrible.

[brzrboy 0]

Tulsa with the pick, very nice.

[ROCKET 0]

Tulsa is guaranteed to cover. You guys can go to bed now and don't worry. Why do I know? Because I got a call from a friend of mine and was shooting the sheit and forgot to e-mail my book my Tulsa play til almost 8 pm. I'm focking jinxed lately Oh well, I'll still root for em.

[teddytime 0]

Ended up oing big tonight with a 6 unit play on Tulsa Good luck everyone!!

[phillybear 365]

It's not a good sign when you move inside the 35 of your opponent on your first three drives, and only lead 7-3.

 

[fuggedaboutits 0]

Ended up oing big tonight with a 6 unit play on Tulsa Good luck everyone!!

 

 

Looking at some games early. I like to play 10 point teasers. Here are some games I like so far, gonna focus on 10 games this week:

 

 

Florida State -.5

Iowa -1

Wake Forest +27

Auburn -5.5

Oklahoma +15

Michigan -6

Colorado St. -5.5

Houston -7

UCLA -2.5

Cal +5

 

Let me know what games you like, gonna roll some electric bills on some 3 10 point teasers. Any help would be appreciated. Good luck all. BTW, I will be shocked if Tulsa's coach isn't snagged up by a good program somewhere. He has absolutely turned that program around. Rumors of Tulsa going to Division 1 AA before he got there. Amazing turnaround.

[Yer mom 2]

LOL...this is f'ing unreal, points left all over the field. Jack@ss Bower has finally put in the better QB, im loadin up on the total again at the half. Shoot me now, Tuesday night football....not good times so far. Way to run out the half you complete wus!!

[Yer mom 2]

2nd half Tulsa -3 21.5

 

Played the over...big...... Making my efforts to crash back down to earth for John Q.

 

SERENITY NOW!!!

[GiantsRule 0]

Can't believe NOBODY else took So. Miss!

[phillybear 365]

Are we going to get any breaks from the refs tonight. Holy fock.

 

Stupid me. I bet into a trap.

 

Zero flags on So Miss. Terrible line spots all night.

[teddytime 0]

Are we going to get any breaks from the refs tonight. Holy fock.

 

Stupid me. I bet into a trap.

 

Zero flags on So Miss. Terrible line spots all night.

 

 

Philly No worries it's Tulsa time right now they will score a TD this drive

 

Well The start of the 4th and it's Tulsa Time Time to start looking at tommorrow's game as well!!!

[phillybear 365]

Philly No worries it's Tulsa time right now they will score a TD this drive

 

I don't know how this game will end, but I feel Tulsa was the right side anyway.

 

They score on their first possession, then don't score for about 3 quarters now...and counting. The offense keeps moving the ball, but can't get points. Frustrating, frustrating, frustrating.

 

Also Tulsa has 8 flags against them, So Miss has zero. I was outraged that the Tulsa WR got mugged on the wide receiver screen, and refs refused to drop the flag. Frustrating, frustrating, frusting. I guarantee that Tulsa gets flagged once, maybe twice on this drive.

 

The fix is in. The only way Tulsa covers is with a defensive score. And even then, it's iffy.

[ROCKET 0]

How come I'm never on an under in a game like this? No, for me I have to sweat it out til the bitter end every time

[teddytime 0]

TD TULSA I TOLD YOU IT WAS TULSA TIME!!!!

 

[dpollaro 0]

missed XP...not sure if that is good/bad for us who had tulsa -5 in the long run

[GiantsRule 0]

missed XP...not sure if that is good/bad for us who had tulsa -5 in the long run

 

Gives me a vague chance of hitting this now.

[phillybear 365]

missed XP...not sure if that is good/bad for us who had tulsa -5 in the long run

 

I was trying to figure it out myself. A FG by So Miss focks us. But this sets up a potential OT, since So Miss doesn't have to make a 2pter, which we saw in So Flor and Rutgers that it's hard to convert at the end of a game, where Tulsa could still cover.

 

WHEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE!!!!! Another flag on Tulsa.

[dpollaro 0]

I was trying to figure it out myself. A FG by So Miss focks us. But this sets up a potential OT, since So Miss doesn't have to make a 2pter, which we saw in So Flor and Rutgers that it's hard to convert at the end of a game, where Tulsa could still cover.

 

WHEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE!!!!! Another flag on Tulsa.

 

 

yea fg would ###### us for the time being..but OT may not be bad..instead of southern miss scoring and missing the 2 pt

[teddytime 0]

It's TULSA TIME again!!! They will score another td on this drive to help seal the win for us!!

 

Philly any thought on Tommorrows game yet??

[phillybear 365]

Of course there's a flag on the play on the punt return. Of course.

 

Penalties: 9-0.

 

Is anyone else watching this crap? These officials need to be suspended. I have no clue why they overturned the tip pass. They could have helped So Miss with that to.

 

Unbelievable.

[teddytime 0]

Of course there's a flag on the play on the punt return. Of course.

 

Penalties: 9-0.

 

Is anyone else watching this crap? These officials need to be suspended. I have no clue why they overturned the tip pass. They could have helped So Miss with that to.

 

Unbelievable.

 

 

Philly any thought on Tommorrows game yet??