***Official NFL Week 8 Betting Thread***

[new-guru 0]

Car -4 $$$$$

thats my play

 

Car. defensive line is one of the best and DAllas as everyone seen last week is terrible

Car. moves the ball well since Smith has been back

Dallas I think is over rated they are yet to beat a good team

[GiantsRule 0]

Bets tonight (pushing it a bit):

 

Steve Smith Over 7 receptions (-115)

 

Both teams to have a 31+ yard FG (+120)

 

Also taking a small wager on the Rutgers:

 

Rutgers team Over 28.5 (-115)

 

Good luck to all!

[swirvenirvin 25]

I used to get those at sportsbook.com................maybe that's what you're using now

 

 

i use mysportsbooks.com different then sportsbooks.com I think

 

You make 5 plays in a week and you get a free $10 bet

 

So if you hit that essentially you only have to got 2-3 on the week if you are making $5 bets

[Big Blue 06 195]

I would like to make it clear that I am 0 for 3 this week and down $270. I hate football.

[GiantsRule 0]

i use mysportsbooks.com different then sportsbooks.com I think

 

You make 5 plays in a week and you get a free $10 bet

 

So if you hit that essentially you only have to got 2-3 on the week if you are making $5 bets

 

They have the same interface, odds, and promotions.

 

Another derivative is sportingbetusa.com.

 

FYI: This is why I didn't sign up, swirve. I don't trust Sportsbook.com and figured they were all one and the same.

[ROCKET 0]

10-6 so far on NFL today with the Boys +5.5 tonight. If Dallas can cover I will be up a whopping 5 bucks for the weekend after my beating in college yesterday (10-13)

[swirvenirvin 25]

I would like to make it clear that I am 0 for 3 this week and down $270. I hate football.

 

 

Damn you guys are high rollers

 

Look at me with the $5 bets

 

Makes it just as interesting for me

 

Sorry about this week Giants Rule

 

They have the same interface, odds, and promotions.

 

Another derivative is sportingbetusa.com.

 

FYI: This is why I didn't sign up, swirve. I don't trust Sportsbook.com and figured they were all one and the same.

 

 

Ahh no problem

 

Did sportsbook screw you before or something?

 

These guys have been really good so far

[SUXBNME 1,337]

I like....

 

Atlanta +4.5 and under 43.5 - Cincy doesn't get away from anyone and their offense has stunk. Moneyline Atl might be the play.

 

Tam +9 - How can Tampa beat Cincy and Philly in back to back weeks and give 9 points? This might be my play of the week.

 

Niners +17 - Too many points. Could be very, very low scoring. That said...

 

Niners under 42.5 - My other player of the week. If this had been 37, I wouldn't have been surprised.

 

Arizona +3.5 - Don't trust Green Bay giving points.

 

KC - 6 - No Hasselbeck + no SA + Arrowhead = Chiefs, Chiefs, Chiefs

 

Saints -2 - I'm not sold on Baltimore (Am I supposed to believe the Ravens entire offense will turn a corner with Billick calling the plays?) and betting against the Saints at home has been disastrous.

 

Saints over 36.5 - I see lots of passing in this game.

 

Rams +9 - So the Chargers get beat by Huard and give 9 points the next week? When did the Rams get so bad?

 

Indy +3 - Hard not to take the Colts catching points against anyone. I like 'em moneyline.

 

 

4-7

 

Hope you didn't lose too much money.

Not that I could have picked them any better...

[Yer mom 2]

GR...tack on one more frostee beverage I owe ya for The Greek referral...Took Dallas in game +10.5 big since it looked like a possibility that the +4 might not be enough....now its a HUGE night!!

 

Leaning towards Minnesota tomorrow....will figure out the play during the day.

 

 

Good Luck!!

[cyclone24 1,814]

I dont know how you guys do it....or where you get your info or why its fishy when the line moves, and where the action is.....

 

But thanks for the Dallas info......

[ponebonz 0]

Dammit, I came out almost even this weekend in NCAA and NFL, then went for Car -4 and at half-time took Car -1/2 so I got focked both ways. Had another bad weekend after a horrible one last weekend, which is a big hit for a small timer like me.

 

Looking for a big play Mon. night to get me back in the game, thinking Min.

BoDog sucks with posting lines late and even worse sometimes no ML or O/U. If I lose it all tomorrow night I'm gonna go with thegreek or pinnacle since you guys seem so fond of them.

[GiantsRule 0]

GR...tack on one more frostee beverage I owe ya for The Greek referral...Took Dallas in game +10.5 big since it looked like a possibility that the +4 might not be enough....now its a HUGE night!!

 

Leaning towards Minnesota tomorrow....will figure out the play during the day.

Good Luck!!

 

Damn shame they only allow the referral bonus once.

 

Congrats on your luck. I almost pulled the trigger at Dallas +1 right before the fumble but thought better of it. Also held off on the Over when it was down to 39.

 

Never saw Delhomme that flat before. Run, run, long incomplete pass. Surprised I even got 6 catches out of Steve Smith but I really needed that 7th to at least push.

 

Hope you have a good one for tomorrow. I'd have a really hard time picking Minny over the Pats (although I'd love if NE lost). Right now, leaning towards the over. We'll see.

[The Shepherd 10]

I see it too Philly - I'm putting a small bet on the Cowboys, going to bed (it's 1:40 in the morning here in Germany) - hope to wake up tomorrow to see Romo got the job done. GL everybody - lights out here.

I love it, not only 4-0 yesterday with my picks, but Romo also led my FF team to victory. That's like going to the prom with the head cheer-leader, and she buys the beer and rubbers.

[GiantsRule 0]

Going with Over 39 tonight. I hope the guys that are on hot streaks are with me!

[phillybear 364]

Still below .500 in the NFL this year, but did go 4-2-1 last week, so hoping that it's turning around a bit. All 1 unit plays. Waiting on a couple lines to move.

 

Sunday Early

 

Philadelphia (-7.5) LOSER

Atlanta (+3.5) WINNER

NY Giants (-9) WINNER

San Francisco (+16) LOSER

Green Bay (-4) WINNER

Seattle (+4) LOSER

New Orleans (-1.5) LOSER

Over Tenn/Hou (41.5) WINNER

Over GB/Ari (44.5) WINNER

Parlay .25 units to win 2.21 units 1st H unders: TB/NYG(20),SF/Ch(21.5),Sea/KC(18.5),Bal/NO(17.5) LOSER

2nd half plays, all for .5 units

Houston (-.5)@-105 WINNER

Philadelphia (-4)@-120 LOSER

Green Bay (+.5) WINNER

NYGiants (-3)@-120 PUSH

New Orleans(-3.5) WINNER

 

Early Summary: 8-6; +1.25 units

 

Sunday Later

 

San Diego (-9.5) WINNER

Oakland (+9) WINNER

Denver (-3) LOSER

Over Clev/NYJ (37) LOSER

Over SD/STL (45) WINNER

2nd half plays, all for .5 units

NYJets (-.5)@Even LOSER

Over NYJ/Cle (17.5)@Even WINNER

 

Saturday Later Summary: 4-3; +.8 units

 

Sunday Night

 

Dallas (+5,+4) for 2 units WINNER

 

Good luck to all.

 

 

Up a modest +4.05 units in the NFL this week. A lot of bets, grinding out a small profit.

 

I like Minnesota tonight. I guess I'll see what the line is tonight, but with NE getting the majority of the action, I am going to take the live home dog.

[swirvenirvin 25]

Kinda hedging my $10 free bet with Owens going over 5 receptions

 

Straight Wager 10/29/06 19:46 ET

5.00/2.94 Result: Pending

Terrell Owens (Cowboys) Total Receptions - Must Play

Receptions

Receptions 10/29/06 (20:15 ET)

Over 5 (-170)

 

 

Future Wager 10/27/06 17:19 ET

10.00/10.00 Result: Pending

$10 Free Bet - Player to Record Most Receptions on Sunday (Both Must Play)

Steve Smith (Panthers) -2 1/2 Receptions 10/29/06 (20:15 ET)

1-1

DOES anyone else have a site that uses the free bets like I get?

 

 

I'm rich

 

No clue why I bet on Steve Smith here. Romo loves Owens and Witten plus Ownes getting 3 receptions.. Dumb

[Lizard1 0]

Up a modest +4.05 units in the NFL this week. A lot of bets, grinding out a small profit.

 

i had a lot on the line this week as my friend's bookie(just moved to new state) has a minimum bet of $50. ended up going 11-10-1 for net of $0.00..............i'm just glad it wasn't in the red

[Hurricane Ditka 0]

Sorry about the 1-4 on college picks this week. However I did cash in an 8 unit winner on the Colts.

 

What you do all think about MNF tonight?

[4i's 0]

The way the line is moving from -3 NE to -1 NE. I like NE but since the line is moving like that, I'm gonna switch my bet to Minny.

 

Also, the total pts also creeping up from 36.5 to 39.5. Lots of folks are put the money on high, which I hate to bet with the public on monday night game.

 

Minny and Low tonight .

[Nap 0]

I went a little wild this weekend and made about 17 bets in the NFL, most of them $10 parlays. I ended up hitting a couple of them, one of which was a FIVE TEAMER!! All in all, I made about $400 this weekend, including the few college games I played. The 5-team parlay paid off 30-1 odds, yummy!

 

This is probably bad luck for me, because now I'll be overconfident going into next weekend.

 

Big games for me yesterday (that I had in multiple parlays) included:

 

San Diego/St. Louis OVER 45

Giants/Bucs UNDER 39

Kansas City -5.5

Pittsburgh/Oakland UNDER 38

Chicago -16

 

Big losers for me included:

 

Saints -2

Carolina -5.5

 

 

I don't have a play for tonight, but might throw down $5 just for fun on the Pats -1.5

[Yer mom 2]

Smart wagerers....stay the hell away from this game....

 

Degenerates, lets dive in...

 

Tonights play:

 

Flip a coin...literally, then choose. I would call this a perfectly even match-up based on location of the game and talent. Brady is 1000-1 in domes on turf yada and the Pats are playing great ball right now. Johnson doesnt make many mistakes and wont be rattled by the Monday Night primetime pressure. I give a slight edge to the Minnesota running game because Hutchinson is god and Chester by my account will have a good game tonight. I give the edge to Brady as a QB in general over Johnson (for obvious reasons) but for tonights game being in Minnesota, I think i'll call it a push. Then the kicking game edge should go to Minnesota since Longwell is pretty money and Gostkowski (sp) is a rook in a huge Monday Night game. This game will probably come down to whoever doesnt make a big mistake, and just plays error free fundamental ball, which NE should get slight edge. The Pats face Indianapolis next week and I doubt they really need to look ahead to anyone since they are the Pats, I just think the win will mean more to Minnesota. Also, 77% of the money on tonights game is on NE, the public has to win sometimes, hopefully not tonight!! Gimme the Home Dog.

 

Minnesota +2

 

Good Luck!!

 

P.S. If either team jumps out, in game wagering offers killer lines to hedge or just to play your side with a much better line, just an FYI.

[GiantsRule 0]

The way the line is moving from -3 NE to -1 NE. I like NE but since the line is moving like that, I'm gonna switch my bet to Minny.

 

Also, the total pts also creeping up from 36.5 to 39.5. Lots of folks are put the money on high, which I hate to bet with the public on monday night game.

 

Minny and Low tonight .

 

I never understood the philosophy of "betting against the public" for the sake of simply betting against the public. Sometimes, the right side happens to be a public play. After all, there are only two ways to play: for or against. It stands to reason that the right side and the public perception will be the same about half the time.

 

That being said, I was on the Vikes Over tonight because I don't think either defense can stop the other from scoring 20+ each in the dome.

 

But since I piggyback more bets than I take for myself, if the "big guns" in this thread say under, I'm buying it back and eating another hefty plate of "vig salad."

[phillybear 364]

I never understood the philosophy of "betting against the public" for the sake of simply betting against the public. Sometimes, the right side happens to be a public play. After all, there are only two ways to play: for or against. It stands to reason that the right side and the public perception will be the same about half the time.

 

You have to pick and choose your spots, and national TV only-game-in-town game are the most likely to be weird. Carolina/Dallas was a good example. Carolina getting 65% of the action. Yet, yesterday, the line went from -5 to -4 to -3.5 in some spots. Never should have happened. And Dallas covers. Last night, Rutgers was getting around 85% of the action, and didn't come close to covering. But the line inched up to about -21 before the game, up from -19.5, so I didn't touch it, as the line moved the right way.

 

This time of year, tradionally, it's risky to side with the public on national TV. I've made that mistake. And I am going to be more cautious the rest of the year. The last couple of years, a lot of public sides have been covering in the NFL. This year looks like a year that is reverting back to typical form.

 

That being said, I don't love this game, but I still like Minnesota enought for a small wager. I'll check my line when I get home.

 

Good luck.

 

Tennessee 62% over Houston

Philadelphia 63% over Jacksonville

Cincinnati 50% over Atlanta

NY Giants 53% over Tampa Bay

Chicago 61% over San Francisco

Green Bay 59% over Arizona

Kansas City 68% over Seattle

New Orleans 77% over Baltimore

St Louis 60% over San Diego

Pittsburgh 72% over Oakland

NY Jets 79% over Cleveland

Indianapolis 78% over Denver

Carolina 67% over Dallas

New England 81% over Minnesota

 

The above is my post from page 1 of this thread, with all the percentages yesterday going into the games. Check out the most lopsided action, over 70% on one side. What do they have in common? Except for Indy and KC, all the heavily bet sides lost. Most didn't even cover teasers. This is more typical of NFL weekends this time of year. And New England is REALLY lopsided.

 

Take it for what it's worth.

[GiantsRule 0]

You have to pick and choose your spots, and national TV only-game-in-town game are the most likely to be weird. Carolina/Dallas was a good example. Carolina getting 65% of the action. Yet, yesterday, the line went from -5 to -4 to -3.5 in some spots. Never should have happened. And Dallas covers. Last night, Rutgers was getting around 85% of the action, and didn't come close to covering. But the line inched up to about -21 before the game, up from -19.5, so I didn't touch it, as the line moved the right way.

 

This time of year, tradionally, it's risky to side with the public on national TV. I've made that mistake. And I am going to be more cautious the rest of the year. The last couple of years, a lot of public sides have been covering in the NFL. This year looks like a year that is reverting back to typical form.

 

That being said, I don't love this game, but I still like Minnesota enought for a small wager. I'll check my line when I get home.

 

Good luck.

The above is my post from page 1 of this thread, with all the percentages yesterday going into the games. Check out the most lopsided action, over 70% on one side. What do they have in common? Except for Indy and KC, all the heavily bet sides lost. Most didn't even cover teasers. This is more typical of NFL weekends this time of year. And New England is REALLY lopsided.

 

Take it for what it's worth.

 

Thanks pb.

 

Are the stats similar for public perception of Over/Under?

[Yer mom 2]

The above is my post from page 1 of this thread, with all the percentages yesterday going into the games. Check out the most lopsided action, over 70% on one side. What do they have in common? Except for Indy and KC, all the heavily bet sides lost. Most didn't even cover teasers. This is more typical of NFL weekends this time of year. And New England is REALLY lopsided.

 

Take it for what it's worth.

 

And on top of this, the line continues to DROP against NE, now at -1.5..........very wierd!

 

Good Luck!!

[phillybear 364]

Thanks pb.

 

Are the stats similar for public perception of Over/Under?

 

I haven't really paid much attention to totals over the years. Only the sides.

[Nap 0]

Are the stats similar for public perception of Over/Under?

 

The safe money traditionally on MNF games is to take the "under". It's less sexy, but it's the most reliable bet traditionally in high-profile, national broadcasts. I suspect the reason for this is because MNF draws in more casual bettors who feel like they need to bet on the "only game of the night", or those wishing to win back money lost over the weekend.

 

In any case, MNF always sees more action. Casual bettors often go with the "over" for various reasons. I like to think that people bet the "over" because it's more fun to get excited when teams score, and you are planning to watch an exciting game. The O/U on these games tends to be a bit inflated.

 

Take a look at MNF this season thus far:

 

Week 1:

Minnesota 19, Washington 16 UNDER

San Diego 27, Oakland 0 UNDER

 

Week 2:

Jacksonville 9, Pittsburgh 0 UNDER

 

Week 3:

New Orleans 23, Atlanta 3 UNDER

 

Week 4:

Philadelphia 31, Green Bay 9 UNDER

 

Week 5:

Denver 13, Baltimore 3 UNDER

 

Week 6:

Chicago 24, Arizona 23 OVER

 

Week 7:

N.Y. Giants 36, Dallas 22 OVER

 

---------------------------

 

So far, we have 6 Unders and only 2 Overs (and I view the AZ/CHI game as a fluke; 99% of the time Chicago doesn't score 3 TD's off defense and special teams in final quarter). This is a trend that is prevalent most seasons in the NFL.

 

I am not particularly hyped up about this game, and probably won't even make a play on the O/U, but if I did, I'd play the odds - UNDER.

[The Shepherd 10]

Hi folks. As my last act of the day, I jumped online to say:

1. I'm staying away from this Monday Nighter

2. If I had to pick, I'd go with NE-1.5

3. GL to you all.

Lights out in Germany.

The Shepherd

[Hurricane Ditka 0]

I said this in the MNF thread to. I think Minnesota is better than people think. But Brady plays well on the road. I am riding Tom Brady tonight:

 

Brady over 18 completions

Caldwell over 28 rec. yards

Brown over 3 receptions

 

1 unit each

 

After this weekend I may never drink again. I drank way too much and vomitted my brains out all Sunday morning. Went to the Bears game hung way over. And I am still recovering.

 

My wife and I dropped $600 in the Chicago Bars Saturday night.

 

Diet Pepsi sounds good to me for a while!!!!!!!!!

[UberAlias 0]

Compared to last week, these games look downright easy. Not to say I won't go 3-9. But last week made my stomach (and wallet) hurt.

 

I'm telling everyone, bet the house on Tampa and St. Louis. No way both don't cover. Impossible.

 

Good call.

[KC Chef Jeff 0]

Home teams are 4-3 so far on MNF, so no angle there...

 

Hmmm, here's covers.com and the top 5 reasons to pick Minn and the points:

 

5. Chester Taylor

4. The Dome

3. Vikes don't have many turnovers

2. Minn Defense

1. Minn honors Warren Moon (hmm, I think they are reaching here...)

 

And then a really big reason... sharps are probably moving the line in Minn's direction.

 

 

Useless fact: number of games decided yesterday by 3 points? One. Maybe tonight's will be decided by a FG too. I'm just sayin'!

[ponebonz 0]

MIN -2.5 1unit

Under 40 1unit

 

Me argueing with myself over these picks lol

[GiantsRule 0]

Hoping for quick points in the 1st quarter so I can buy the under in live betting (not likely. If this isn't high scoring, it has the makings of a 7-3 halftime score).

 

Ditka: Thanks for the heads up on the Brady prop! I love prop plays and completions are my favorite.

 

Grabbed Brady Total Completions Over 18.5 (-110)

 

This is weird though (odds on same prop):

 

Olympic - Over 18.5 (-110)

Skybook - Over 18.5 (-140)

BoDog - Over 18.5 (-150)

 

Either OLY knows something the other guys don't, or they don't update their odds too often.

 

Good luck to all!

[Hurricane Ditka 0]

GR,

 

Brady's prop has moved all day. It started this morning at 18 for -125.

[Yer mom 2]

I said this in the MNF thread to. I think Minnesota is better than people think. But Brady plays well on the road. I am riding Tom Brady tonight:

 

Brady over 18 completions

Caldwell over 28 rec. yards

Brown over 3 receptions

 

1 unit each

 

After this weekend I may never drink again. I drank way too much and vomitted my brains out all Sunday morning. Went to the Bears game hung way over. And I am still recovering.

 

My wife and I dropped $600 in the Chicago Bars Saturday night.

 

Diet Pepsi sounds good to me for a while!!!!!!!!!

 

 

The infamous 3 day hangover...former frequent visitor of that club, they still know my name but took away my permastool

 

That Brady prop looks friggin great. One of the ESPN skirts just reported that one of the NE O-Linemen is out for the game...as well as his back up (was napping when she announced who, woke up as she said back up out as well) Brady will probably do a ton of short passes if the run game doesnt get going. Too bad I have to root against Brady, cause thats lookin pretty nice

 

Good Luck!!

[Hurricane Ditka 0]

The infamous 3 day hangover...former frequent visitor of that club, they still know my name but took away my permastool

 

That Brady prop looks friggin great. One of the ESPN skirts just reported that one of the NE O-Linemen is out for the game...as well as his back up (was napping when she announced who, woke up as she said back up out as well) Brady will probably do a ton of short passes if the run game doesnt get going. Too bad I have to root against Brady, cause thats lookin pretty nice

 

Good Luck!!

Could mean regular shot gun for Brady too!

[phillybear 364]

Minnesota Money Line @+110 for 1 unit

 

Good luck to all.

[GiantsRule 0]

The infamous 3 day hangover...former frequent visitor of that club, they still know my name but took away my permastool

 

That Brady prop looks friggin great. One of the ESPN skirts just reported that one of the NE O-Linemen is out for the game...as well as his back up (was napping when she announced who, woke up as she said back up out as well) Brady will probably do a ton of short passes if the run game doesnt get going. Too bad I have to root against Brady, cause thats lookin pretty nice

 

Good Luck!!

 

Buddy, you could still get in. It's at -115 over at OLY. Join us!

 

[McPaul 0]

I have looked at this game up and down and sideways, and have yet to find a reason to go with Minny.

 

Explain, please.

[Yer mom 2]

I have looked at this game up and down and sideways, and have yet to find a reason to go with Minny.

 

Explain, please.

 

 

I would go with NE then...if you cannot find any angles. Just my .02.

 

Good Luck!!