Sports betting

[JTB 52]

As a "for fun" sports better, ,I employed a strategy that has worked very well over the past few years.

 

I will share it with you now......

 

Track the opening line and see the movements up until the day you place your coin. Take the top 3 line movers and place the bets against the movement. Only bet these 3 games, no BS sucker bets or any of that garbage that will make the game more interesting. If you are looking to win, employ this strategy. If you are looking to make a game more fun to watch then go ahead and bet all the props in the world!

 

Good luck,

last 3 season NFL record 62-30 last week, 4-0 ( 49ers, pitt/denver over, raiders under & cleveland)

[dmaidlow73 0]

As a "for fun" sports better, ,I employed a strategy that has worked very well over the past few years.

 

I will share it with you now......

 

Track the opening line and see the movements up until the day you place your coin. Take the top 3 line movers and place the bets against the movement. Only bet these 3 games, no BS sucker bets or any of that garbage that will make the game more interesting. If you are looking to win, employ this strategy. If you are looking to make a game more fun to watch then go ahead and bet all the props in the world!

 

Good luck,

last 3 season NFL record 62-30 last week, 4-0 ( 49ers, pitt/denver over, raiders under & cleveland)

 

I tend to agree with this strategy. The key, as Yer Mom will tell you, is to look for the late line movements and bet against them.

[swirvenirvin 25]

I'm lazy can you keep track of this for me please?

 

So lets say for example the KC Miami game this weekend.. Right now I think KC is -1.. Lets say by game time it goes to Miami -1, then you would pick Miami correct?

[cyclone24 1,814]

I'm lazy can you keep track of this for me please?

 

 

No kidding....im sleepy.

 

Put it on an excel sheet for me ok?

 

 

 

how the fvck am i suppose to keep track of all these games and their line movements in the last 3 days before the game?

[JTB 52]

I'm lazy can you keep track of this for me please?

 

So lets say for example the KC Miami game this weekend.. Right now I think KC is -1.. Lets say by game time it goes to Miami -1, then you would pick Miami correct?

 

 

No, take KC. Most likely the line is being moved because Miami is getting the most play. If there is an injury or some other reason then I would avoid that game.

 

No kidding....im sleepy.

 

Put it on an excel sheet for me ok?

how the fvck am i suppose to keep track of all these games and their line movements in the last 3 days before the game?

 

Ahhh, check the opening line and check the line on Sunday. I'm sure you can do that....Right!

[timr510 0]

so jtb are u basically just saying bet against what the public is betting?? Like say on sunday the chargers spread moved from 12 to 14 bc everyone was betin on the chargers .. would u then have bet on cleveland?? I thikn thats waht you are saying and i agree wit you completely.. a lot of times i take exactly the opposite of wat all my friends are sayin like in last nights case most of them liek oakland so i went seattle.. Which turned out goood!!!

[Bigal1 0]

Prop bets are the next best thing to sliced bread ! If you are a fantasy nut then you can get a good feel for wrs ctching balls and defenses holding running backs under.Im 5-1 in the last 2 weeks . I lost troy brown last week against minni.Last night I took DJAX over 4.5 catches and he made me sweat !The easies play was Sunday D Driver over 5 when I knew Jennings was injured. Plus theres nothing better than wtching the Qb throw passes to your guy and count down the catches or yardage ! I just love my hobby !!

[JTB 52]

so jtb are u basically just saying bet against what the public is betting?? Like say on sunday the chargers spread moved from 12 to 14 bc everyone was betin on the chargers .. would u then have bet on cleveland?? I thikn thats waht you are saying and i agree wit you completely.. a lot of times i take exactly the opposite of wat all my friends are sayin like in last nights case most of them liek oakland so i went seattle.. Which turned out goood!!!

 

You hit the nail on the head. Most betters lose...Therefore play the opposit and guess what, you WIN!

And I did take Cleveland for the WIN..note original post

[Fireballer 2,383]

http://covers.usatoday.com/data/odds.aspx

 

This does all the work for you. Updated every 2 mins. It shows the opening line, and the currrent line from several different sources.

 

JTB, do you always take 3 games, no matter if the line only moves a half or a full point? Also, do you mix in any O/U?

[JTB 52]

http://covers.usatoday.com/data/odds.aspx

 

This does all the work for you. Updated every 2 mins. It shows the opening line, and the currrent line from several different sources.

 

JTB, do you always take 3 games, no matter if the line only moves a half or a full point? Also, do you mix in any O/U?

 

Yes I mix in the o/u. As for taking 3 games...I don't always, but I feel confident I will win at least 2 of te 3. If I up it to 4 and only with 2 then with the juice, I lost on the day. Again, this is my strategy, you may want to look at just 1 game or even 5. Overall, I like to bet an odd number of games for the most part.

[Mike MacGregor 20]

What is the rationale for this phenomenon?

[JTB 52]

What is the rationale for this phenomenon?

 

 

Simple...If you ever want to make some coin be the bookie. Why? Most people are losers. Therefore, if most lose, and the oddsmakers will give me the advantage of knowing which way the "losers" are betting by hedging the line I will go against the masses. The purpose of having the line move is to get even money on both sides of the line and the bookie is guaranteed to win, because they collect the juice/vig!

[phillybear 364]

The purpose of having the line move is to get even money on both sides of the line and the bookie is guaranteed to win, because they collect the juice/vig!

 

Your theory sounds good. The only thing I will disagree with is the even action part. Rarely, rarely, rarely will a game have even action, even after a line move. Bookies would much rather have even action and just collect the vig, but it just doesn't happen that often. Week to week, game to game, they either clean up or get killed. But they normally turn a profit when it is all said and done.

 

Whatever your doing seems to be working, so good luck to you.

[JTB 52]

Your theory sounds good. The only thing I will disagree with is the even action part. Rarely, rarely, rarely will a game have even action, even after a line move. Bookies would much rather have even action and just collect the vig, but it just doesn't happen that often. Week to week, game to game, they either clean up or get killed. But they normally turn a profit when it is all said and done.

 

Whatever your doing seems to be working, so good luck to you.

 

 

Thank you...I forgot to mention, I track the Vegas Lines. Not your local bookies. Vegas has a lot more action and they can move lines enough to attempt to get even money on both sides. You are right however, the local bookie....it's feast or famine!

[Hurricane Ditka 0]

Why not just follow Dr. Bob?

[timr510 0]

I agree wit you guys but the local bookies dont usually give out different lines unless its in there favor... one of my buddies has done it for a while now and the only way they give out diff lines is if they no what a certain person is goin to bet sometimes they move the lines a pt or half pt depending on how far they can move it witout to much commotion...and like jtb i have been doing the same i eithr ask my friends or the bookie who all the money is going on and then take the opposite like in sunday nights game everyone loved the over 49 so i thought lets go wit the under!!!!! hit that one even tho it was close but i really agree wit his style specially this year bc ppl r gettin crushed and bookies are absolutely cleannin up so i would def do it if i were u guys it seems weird but it really pays off..

[phillybear 364]

Thank you...I forgot to mention, I track the Vegas Lines. Not your local bookies. Vegas has a lot more action and they can move lines enough to attempt to get even money on both sides. You are right however, the local bookie....it's feast or famine!

 

Vegas lines are better. Off shore books are better than Vegas, as they take in a far greater volume of sports action than Vegas, as Vegas has limits on betting.

 

But Vegas can't balance out the action on most games either, even when they try. But since every game is in play, they can do a better job of evening out the overall action from all the games together into an overall profit number with vig, and all the money they win off parlays and teasers.

 

Just my $.02. Good luck.

[jkg31885 0]

ok....so lets say the Indi game they r minus 11 and its moving at 12 right now. What do u say about that game. lets say it moves to 14 by the end of the week. U would go with Buff??

[Cylon Patrol 0]

On a related note, I built Harrahs another casino by taking Chicago against Miam's 13 and a half (Caesars Palace line).

[Ras66not99 0]

Simple...If you ever want to make some coin be the bookie. Why? Most people are losers. Therefore, if most lose, and the oddsmakers will give me the advantage of knowing which way the "losers" are betting by hedging the line I will go against the masses. The purpose of having the line move is to get even money on both sides of the line and the bookie is guaranteed to win, because they collect the juice/vig!

Hence the reason I was all over the Fish this past weekend... I'm surrounded by mushes in my town, they help me win a lot of cash

[GiantsRule 0]

Prop bets are the next best thing to sliced bread ! If you are a fantasy nut then you can get a good feel for wrs ctching balls and defenses holding running backs under.Im 5-1 in the last 2 weeks . I lost troy brown last week against minni.Last night I took DJAX over 4.5 catches and he made me sweat !The easies play was Sunday D Driver over 5 when I knew Jennings was injured. Plus theres nothing better than wtching the Qb throw passes to your guy and count down the catches or yardage ! I just love my hobby !!

 

Absolufreakin'lutely!

 

I get so much joy out of having a QB completions prop where I need 18 completions and the QB gets me 16 by halftime, or a longest passing completion prop that cashes on the opening drive.

 

There's a reason the books put such small max. limits on prop plays. They know a sharp bettor who follows the players (i.e., fantasy football owners) can manipulate the hell out of them!

[JTB 52]

ok....so lets say the Indi game they r minus 11 and its moving at 12 right now. What do u say about that game. lets say it moves to 14 by the end of the week. U would go with Buff??

 

If the line is moving due to more money being placed on the Colts, then yes betting Buffalo is going against what the masses are doing. Doesn't mean it will work everytime, just a lot more often than you would expect.

[swirvenirvin 25]

SO the Toledo Northern Illinois game opened up at

 

N Illinois -7.5 and is now -11.5 so we bet on Toledo at + 11.5

[GobbleDog 816]

I bet on the Gaints already.... and line has increased from -1 to -3.

 

Based on this theory, I guess I should have taken the Bears. (if it's one of the top three line movers by the end of the week)

[GiantsRule 0]

SO the Toledo Northern Illinois game opened up at

 

N Illinois -7.5 and is now -11.5 so we bet on Toledo at + 11.5

 

Holy crap, I hope not! I have N.I. at -11!!!

[JTB 52]

SO the Toledo Northern Illinois game opened up at

 

N Illinois -7.5 and is now -11.5 so we bet on Toledo at + 11.5

 

You can do what ever you want About 3-4 years ago Toledo always covered.

 

 

I bet on the Gaints already.... and line has increased from -1 to -3.

 

Based on this theory, I guess I should have taken the Bears. (if it's one of the top three line movers by the end of the week)

 

That's corrrect. In fact betting on the Bears might be a great hedge. You have 2 points in the middle you can win on both side with. The cost to double up is the vig!

[Sportslitter 0]

when using sportsbook.com how come everytime i click on daily game props it says "not recognized as a sport"? where can i go to find an online book with prop betting?

[GiantsRule 0]

You can do what ever you want About 3-4 years ago Toledo always covered.

That's corrrect. In fact betting on the Bears might be a great hedge. You have 2 points in the middle you can win on both side with. The cost to double up is the vig!

 

As someone who hedges/middles often, this isn't a very good middle. It's more of a low-risk hedge opportunity. In order to cash both, you need to win by 2 points (which won't happen unless there are a ton of FGs and a possible safety).

 

The one advantage is if the game is the Giants win by exactly 3 points. You then push one bet and win the other.

 

My suggestion is to either way and see if the line moves to 3.5 (giving you a far more palatable middle), or if you have a discount book (that offers sides at -104 to -107), to buy to 3.5 (but paying no more than 20 cents on the line shift).

[JTB 52]

when using sportsbook.com how come everytime i click on daily game props it says "not recognized as a sport"? where can i go to find an online book with prop betting?

 

I don't prop bet. May want to create a new thread for a better answer?????

[GiantsRule 0]

when using sportsbook.com how come everytime i click on daily game props it says "not recognized as a sport"? where can i go to find an online book with prop betting?

 

(Oh boy, here it comes)

 

Olympic Sportsbook (http://www.thegreek.com) is easily the best online book for proposition wagers. They offer the most variety with the fairest lines and one of the higher limits in the industry ($500 per prop). They also move the line slower than others (case in point, N. Ill was -11 with them while -11.5 almost everywhere else). And best of all, if you watch the games near a computer, they frequently have live in-game betting which offers tons of opportunities to grab favorable lines and totals at various points of the game while it's in progress.

 

If you decide to sign up, please tell them that account 47829 sent ya. You also get a very competitive sign-on bonus on your first deposit. If you need more information, feel free to email me at BTC316@hotmail.com.

 

 

Regarding not viewing the props, most books won't put player/team props up until the day of the game(s) or the night before at the earliest. From previous experience (and from what others have said), avoid Sportsbook.com if you're looking for a new out.

[GobbleDog 816]

You have 2 points in the middle you can win on both side with. The cost to double up is the vig!

 

Yes, but the Giants at home is gauranteed money.

 

If any game should buck the trend, it's this one. (I wonder if the system works more often with double digit spreads.)

[swirvenirvin 25]

So the Buff Akron game that has already moved from -12 to -17 is Buffalo all the way

[JTB 52]

Yes, but the Giants at home is gauranteed money.

 

If any game should buck the trend, it's this one. (I wonder if the system works more often with double digit spreads.)

 

Yes, the double digit spreads tend to be resulting in more winners. Also, the glaring over unders that you would say to yourself WTF? How can't they score 34 pts. Case in point. Last night the over under started at 34.5 and I got in late at 37 with the under....WINNER! Everyone and there brother must of taken the over for it to move 2.5 pts.

 

 

So the Buff Akron game that has already moved from -12 to -17 is Buffalo all the way

 

OK...What are you trying to do?

[Yer mom 2]

This is all true....however there is one MAJOR key factor worth noting....

 

Regardless of what happens with the lines during the week and on gameday, watch what happens inside of 15-5 minutes before kickoff. Generally line moves in this small window way more often than not hit in the direction of the line move, College ball at a higher percentage that NFL.

 

Most recent example - Indy/Colts 5 minutes before kickoff Total 48 dropped to 47.5 (Amazing it stayed under though) and NE went from -3 -120 to -3 -110....Indy covered. 2 for 2 in the same game.

 

Games I have played in the last 2 weeks (right side or wrong) with last minute line moves are as follows:

 

Michigan State/Indiana - Over 56 - Jumped to over 57.5 just prior to kickoff... final - 56-21 Winner

Ohio State -27 (vs Minnesota) jumped slightly just before kickoff to -27.5....final Ohio State 44 Minn -0 Winner

Tennessee/South Carolina - UT-3.5 Jumped to -4 10 minutes before kickoff...UT 31 SC 24 Winner

New England -1.5 - Jumped to -2 (I think this one was about 1 hour before kickoff though) Anyway, they covered but I had Minny.

WV/Louisville - Total jumped a bit all day, but just before kickoff went from 57.5 to 58.5 ....final 44-34 Louisville went from +1 to -1 just before kickoff...Louisville covered. 2 for 2 in the same game.

Air Force/Army - Dropped from AF -6 most of the day to -5....but before kickoff on the site I was using went to AF -5.5...AF 42 Army 7 Winner

Texas Tech/Baylor - TT-17 ...then to -16 one hour before kickoff....then back to -17 10 minutes before kickoff....TT 55 - Baylor 21...Winner

Oregon/Washington - Started UO-16.5....dropped to -13.5 during week and on gameday. Then 15-30 minutes before kickoff jumped back to UO -14.5. UO 34 - UW 14....Winner.

Texas/Oklahoma State total 63....dropped to 62 15 minutes before kickoff, unfortunately I had the over and fell well short.

 

It went against me as well last week. Fresno/Boise State dropped from -22.5 to -21.5 just before kickoff but Boise State won by 24. Fortunately I had taken FSU earlier in the week at +24 for a push..

 

The trend seems to be much stronger in college ball, these are examples of games I have played in the past 2 weeks, winning at a high percentage with following the line moves within that small window of time. My take is that either extreme sharps lay the lumber at that time or some kind of small significant detail about players physical status, possible weather forecast, babys momma in the stands with voodoo doll, etc. leak out. I certainly have no evidence to support it, but strange how it hits at a pretty high percentage none the less!

 

This is a great thread, I ALWAYS look for angles to flatten the books....

 

Good Luck!!

[JTB 52]

This is a great thread, I ALWAYS look for angles to flatten the books....

 

Good Luck!!

 

 

Thank you for your input as well!

[swirvenirvin 25]

Yes, the double digit spreads tend to be resulting in more winners. Also, the glaring over unders that you would say to yourself WTF? How can't they score 34 pts. Case in point. Last night the over under started at 34.5 and I got in late at 37 with the under....WINNER! Everyone and there brother must of taken the over for it to move 2.5 pts.

OK...What are you trying to do?

 

 

Nothing just saying by this theory Buffalo should be the pick here

 

Yes, the double digit spreads tend to be resulting in more winners. Also, the glaring over unders that you would say to yourself WTF? How can't they score 34 pts. Case in point. Last night the over under started at 34.5 and I got in late at 37 with the under....WINNER! Everyone and there brother must of taken the over for it to move 2.5 pts.

OK...What are you trying to do?

 

 

Nothing just saying based on the theory Buffalo is the pick here

[JTB 52]

Nothing just saying by this theory Buffalo should be the pick here

Nothing just saying based on the theory Buffalo is the pick here

 

 

That's correct...Good Luck!

[JTB 52]

SO the Toledo Northern Illinois game opened up at

 

N Illinois -7.5 and is now -11.5 so we bet on Toledo at + 11.5

 

 

Well????

[timr510 0]

lol ur point seemed to work pretty good last night... im very pissed cause i was gonnna take toldeo n under and then do a parlay with both of them but i got caught up in a convo wit my buddies as i was tryin to go home n didnt get the bet in on time!!!!!!!!!! i was soooo pissed lol it actually made me take maryland in college n minnesota in the nba! so i somehow won both which is rare for me to win bball but still veryyy pissed bout the fball game!!!

[xstang 0]

lol ur point seemed to work pretty good last night... im very pissed cause i was gonnna take toldeo n under and then do a parlay with both of them but i got caught up in a convo wit my buddies as i was tryin to go home n didnt get the bet in on time!!!!!!!!!! i was soooo pissed lol it actually made me take maryland in college n minnesota in the nba! so i somehow won both which is rare for me to win bball but still veryyy pissed bout the fball game!!!

 

Betting against early line movement is bad because those guys are the "sharp" bettors. However, I agree with betting against late line movements (public).