**Official College Bowl Games Betting Thread**

[teejay booker 0]

UPDATE: Grothe is down for S. Florida. He is limping off the field with the help of the trainers. This DRASTICALLY changes the outlook for the rest of this game. Although E. Carolina has looked like a JV HS team so far.

[ROCKET 0]

UPDATE: Grothe is down for S. Florida. He is limping off the field with the help of the trainers. This DRASTICALLY changes the outlook for the rest of this game. Although E. Carolina has looked like a JV HS team so far.

 

 

It's over for ECU. South Florida is clearly the dominant team. It looks like yet another rout, 4 in a row. I was taking New Mexico but I'm switching to San Jose St seeing how the favs are dominating early on. Aside from betting these first few games have been absolute snooze fests. Hopefully we'll see some better games soon.

[phillybear 364]

phillybear, are you starting a betting service next year?

 

In the past, I received encouragement to do so. But I don't respect most betting services. And charging people for picks...bad karma.

 

I'll just stick to posting here. Just trying to provide some information, just hoping that others are making some money. Just trying to have some fun. I've seen too many lives ruined by gambling.

 

I don't know if I'll be posting regularly in upcoming years, and maybe not so much with long writeups on games. We shall see.

 

It's nice to see how this thread has grown over the last 3 years or so. Good information, good win/loss records, a solid community of degenerates.

 

Good luck.

[beefy1 0]

Philly, I know for a fact that your picks have made myself and many of my friends some good money over the last few years. I'm glad you don't charge for picks because it would add pressure to you knowing that you owe other people winning picks. I have used your advice and appreciate everything that you've contributed to these threads. Anyone can throw out a guess at a game, but you say who, why, and how much you like them. You also keep a running tally of your track record which leads to more credibility. I just wanted to let you know that I'm a big fan of yours.

[JT 137]

From the "Fooled Me Once" file...

 

Cleaning my home office today, and came across my notes from last bowl season. From the 2005 Emerald Bowl, New Mexico vs Navy (Navy won 31-19): "New Mexico is the worst coached team of the bowl season. Bad scheme that gets even worse inside the opponents territory. Seem to have no idea what's coming on either side of the ball. Could Long be any more clueless?"

 

I probably should have looked for this file before picking this year's games.

 

New Mexico may not be the worst team I've seen this bowl season, but they're the softest. Thay started falling apart at 7-0.

[phillybear 364]

Philly, I know for a fact that your picks have made myself and many of my friends some good money over the last few years. I'm glad you don't charge for picks because it would add pressure to you knowing that you owe other people winning picks. I have used your advice and appreciate everything that you've contributed to these threads. Anyone can throw out a guess at a game, but you say who, why, and how much you like them. You also keep a running tally of your track record which leads to more credibility. I just wanted to let you know that I'm a big fan of yours.

 

Happy to help. I read all the posts in these threads, and appreciate the kind words, but they are not necessary. We are just trying to help each other out.

 

Chalking up San Jose St. Need Utah for the sweep today.

 

I like these early bowl games. They usually feature more obscure teams, the ones outside the public eye, the teams I have been tracking since the start of the season. Interesting reverse trend developing, where more favorites are covering this year, where in years past, almost every dog covered the early bowls. Interesting.

 

Oh, yeah. It sucks having the flu. Can't even get motivated to drink today.

[teejay booker 0]

Looks like Utah has the momentum going into the locker room. Tulsa's QB seems to be a little busted up. However, Utah might have lost their best DT with a right knee injury. I think Utah's offense is going to start rolling in the 2nd half. I'm predicting a 23-17 final.

[phillybear 364]

Overall College YTD: 257-225-6; +41.72 units

Subset: 2 unit plays or higher: 130-106-2; +52.82 units

Subset: College bowls: 1-1; -.3 units

 

Saturday

 

South Florida (-5.5) for 3 units WINNER!!!!!

San Jose St (+3) for 3 units WINNER!!!!!

Utah (-1.5) for 3 units WINNER!!!!!

 

Nice day. I think it's my high water mark for the year, up 50 units.

 

Overall College YTD: 260-225-6; +50.72 units

Subset: 2 unit plays or higher: 133-106-2; +61.82 units

Subset: College bowls: 4-1; +8.7 units

 

I'm not crazy about the Hawaii/Ariz St game, and I don't want to force a play. I'll sleep on it.

[JT 137]

Nice day. I think it's my high water mark for the year, up 50 units.

 

Overall College YTD: 260-225-6; +50.72 units

Subset: 2 unit plays or higher: 133-106-2; +61.82 units

Subset: College bowls: 4-1; +8.7 units

 

I'm not crazy about the Hawaii/Ariz St game, and I don't want to force a play. I'll sleep on it.

 

Good job, philly.

 

Thank goodness the Chiefs covered, taking a bit of the sting out of my 1-2 bowl performance today. That leaves me 3-3 in the bowls, 19-11 last 30 college games.

 

I've yet to see Hawaii play (the curse of old age) and only played them once this year...last game, when they failed to cover. I may follow you to the sidelines on that one.

[GiantsRule 0]

Hey guys. Can't believe this thread slipped to the 3rd page (!?!)

 

I just put a ton on the over in tonight's ASU-Hawaii game. I then visited the FBG gambling thread (they may be cursephobic snobs, but they know how to bet on football) and the consensus has been the under tonight.

 

Looking at how low scoring ASU games have been, I'm thinking I made an awful mistake. Should I buy it back, or do we have confidence in the Warriors who have scored so many points and won many of us so much money all season long?!?

[teejay booker 0]

This one is going to be close. I've seen the O/U around 72-74 the past couple of days. I personally think that Hawaii is going to put up between 40 and 50 points. The question is whether or not ASU can score 4 TDs. I'm leaning toward no. I think the O/U depends on whether or not ASU can establish the run game and keep Hawaii's offense off the field. I personally would bet Hawaii at -7 before I took the over at 72-74.

[JetsFan28 0]

Still haven't made up my mind as to what I'm going to play tonight. Completely stumped. Need a little help. 72 is a huge number and don't know about the sides either.

[teejay booker 0]

Hawaii is -8 on Bodog right now. I still think I would take Hawaii for 1 unit at this line. They are just going to shread the ASU defense. Like I said, taking Hawaii at -8 is safer than the over bet IMO.

[phillybear 364]

The biggest problem tonight is trying to figure out which Arizona St team shows up. They are an incredibly inconsistent team. Throw in the fact that they have a lame duck coach, finishing up the year despite being fired, and now you really have to scratch your head.

 

On the other hand, Hawaii very badly wants to get this record for TD passes in a season for Colt Brennan. And they will get it. The question is whether they will try to run up the score at the end, like they have tried to do as often as possible this year, if they have a lead.

 

Trying to bet an under in a Hawaii game is a ballsy thing this year. It's like walking up to a hungry grizzly and punching it in the face. You might get away with it, but getting mauled might be more of a reality. Hawaii is one of the best college offenses I have seen in my lifetime. And their pass defense is terrible against decent teams.

 

The best value might be to take Arizona St plus the points. However, I'm passing tonight. Just going to root for Hawaii to get the record.

[JetsFan28 0]

Hawaii is -8 on Bodog right now. I still think I would take Hawaii for 1 unit at this line. They are just going to shread the ASU defense. Like I said, taking Hawaii at -8 is safer than the over bet IMO.

I agree with this. Arizona State just doesn't put up the points that Hawaii does.

 

BTW, Hawaii is -7.5 at Bodog right now. Gonna take a stab at it for a unit.

 

GL.

[teejay booker 0]

The biggest problem tonight is trying to figure out which Arizona St team shows up. They are an incredibly inconsistent team. Throw in the fact that they have a lame duck coach, finishing up the year despite being fired, and now you really have to scratch your head.

 

On the other hand, Hawaii very badly wants to get this record for TD passes in a season for Colt Brennan. And they will get it. The question is whether they will try to run up the score at the end, like they have tried to do as often as possible this year, if they have a lead.

 

Trying to bet an under in a Hawaii game is a ballsy thing this year. It's like walking up to a hungry grizzly and punching it in the face. You might get away with it, but getting mauled might be more of a reality. Hawaii is one of the best college offenses I have seen in my lifetime. And their pass defense is terrible against decent teams.

 

The best value might be to take Arizona St plus the points. However, I'm passing tonight. Just going to root for Hawaii to get the record.

 

Hawaii is going to put up 35+ points. That is a given. Do you really think that ASU even with 7.5 or 8 points can put up that many? I'm leaning toward no.

[phillybear 364]

Hawaii is going to put up 35+ points. That is a given. Do you really think that ASU even with 7.5 or 8 points can put up that many? I'm leaning toward no.

 

They are very capable of it. If motivated, Ariz St could score 60+ tonight. Will they? No idea.

 

I am about as big of a Hawaii backer as you will find this year. I bet on them every single game this year. Tonight's game has me completely baffled.

[teejay booker 0]

They are very capable of it. If motivated, Ariz St could score 60+ tonight. Will they? No idea.

 

I am about as big of a Hawaii backer as you will find this year. I bet on them every single game this year. Tonight's game has me completely baffled.

 

Wait, whaaaat? 60+ points? They only put up 30+ in 4 out of 12 games. This offense is a hit or miss. Everything points toward a Hawaii blowout. QB going for a BIG record, home game in Aloha Stadium, a much more experienced offense (QB/WRs are vets on Hawaii, not so for ASU), a coach who is a proponent of running up the score (Jones), and a lame duck coach for ASU. I actually think Hawaii is going to win by 2+ TDs. My prediction? 48-28 Hawaii.

[GiantsRule 0]

Thanks everyone. So from the sound of it, I should probably buy back the over and eat the juice. Doesn't seem like anyone has much confidence in the over and as much as I would like to be "Johnny The Contrarian Rebel", I can't buck what everyone else is doing.

 

I'll decide within the next hour. I have a prop bet pending in the Seattle game. If it hits, I can take the bigger risk. If it doesn't, and after the royal beating I took in the 1 p.m. games (let's just say I have more of a hatred for She-li than ever before), I may just call it a night and not have anything on the line.

 

Always sucks when you can't keep a hot hand going no matter what you do.

[phillybear 364]

For what it's worth, so far this year in 6 bowl games...

 

4 favorites have covered, 2 dogs have covered.

5 games have gone under, 1 game has gone over.

 

Good luck to everyone tonight. I am reluctantly passing. I just have a bad feeling on this game.

[GridIronAssassin#1 0]

Hawaii -6.5 -141 ( expensive, but could prove necessary)

[teejay booker 0]

Yeh.. so that over.. not looking so good. ASU has done an excellent job executing their gameplan so far. Aside from those two bonehead fumbles (1 was recovered by ASU), they have been running the ball right down Hawaii's throat. Less than 2 minutes in the 1st Q and Hawaii is just starting it's 2nd drive. ASU is doing a great job of keeping Hawaii's O off the field. I think I undervalued two things in evaluating this game: 1) ASU is MUCH bigger than Hawaii as a team. This holds especially true when you compare ASU's OLine and Hawaii's DLine. Also, Hawaii played very few quality opponents this year, while ASU played in the Pac-10. Now, I know they were mediocre in the Pac-10, but the fact that they were playing quality opponents must be considered. I actually ended up taking ASU at +9 right before the game. I was sold on Hawaii all week, and then today, something just felt wrong. When the line shifted from -8 to -9, I went with ASU. Hopefully it works out.

[JT 137]

For what it's worth, so far this year in 6 bowl games...

 

4 favorites have covered, 2 dogs have covered.

5 games have gone under, 1 game has gone over.

 

Good luck to everyone tonight. I am reluctantly passing. I just have a bad feeling on this game.

 

One note through the first six games. In 3 of the games, the teams had a common opponent. In each case, the team that performed better against that opponent won the matchup: Troy lost to Fla St by 7, while FSU killed Rice; So Fla beat West Va, while the Mountaineers clobbered ECU; Utah lost by 2 to BYU, and the Cougars beat Tulsa by 20+.

 

Not usually something I pay lots of attention to, but a trend is a trend is a trend.

 

Tongiht's teams had 2 common opponents, and there's no clear advantage (in fact, they're contradictory). Hawaii beat Nevada by 7, ASU beat them by 30; Hawaii lost to Ore St by 3, ASU lost by 30+.

[GridIronAssassin#1 0]

So where is the total going to end at in this game? Maybe 47 ish

[teejay booker 0]

So where is the total going to end at in this game? Maybe 47 ish

Yeh about 1/2 the O/U. ASU is much better than the cappers or me gave them credit for.

[JT 137]

If Hawaii fails to cover, it will make them the 4th or 5th consecutive "home" team to do so over the last two bowl seasons (including New Mexico). I'm working from memory here, but Georgia was one last year. One analyst opined that bowl games are supposed to be a reward, and teams that don't get to travel anywhere to soak in the whole experience don't show up emotionally.

 

ETA: Would Boise have been an exception to this last year?

[teejay booker 0]

If Hawaii fails to cover, it will make them the 4th or 5th consecutive "home" team to do so over the last two bowl seasons (including New Mexico). I'm working from memory here, but Georgia was one last year. One analyst opined that bowl games are supposed to be a reward, and teams that don't get to travel anywhere to soak in the whole experience don't show up emotionally.

 

Makes sense. I think the whole "lame duck coach" argument is weak in this case as well. I think the ASU players really like this coaching staff and wanted to send him off with a big win.

[ROCKET 0]

3-3 so far in bowls, took ASU +7.5. I really need this game after a crapass 5-8 NFL day.

[JT 137]

Looks like a good call to stay away from tonights game. I had no feel for it and, after a nice NFL day, I needed to keep off the college schneid. May avoid the craptastic Cent Mich-Mid Tn matchup unless I see some compelling reason to lay all those points.

 

Merry Christmas or Happy Holidays or Kickin' Kwanza...whatever it is that applies to the rest of you reprobate degenerates. May all your dogs come home in the new year. Best wishes for a happy, healthy and prosperous 2007!

 

JT

[GiantsRule 0]

For the record, let the bet ride and can't believe I can within a TD despite on 10 points in the 1st half. Still kicking myself for not pounding the 2nd half over (which had value even in the 40s!) Silly plays in the afternoon games yesterday and my prop bet on the Jets fell flat (should have checked the freakin weather.)

 

Now back into a slump after the best week of my gambling career. A winner in Tuesday's game would be greatly appreciated. Not doing my own thing for a while. Going strictly consensus for the rest of the bowl season.

[JetsFan28 0]

I like Central Michigan and the Under, but only want to play one. Which one is the safer play?

[art schlichter's bookie 0]

I'm taking CMich for two units. Hoping to give 7.

 

Haven't looked into over/under yet.

[GiantsRule 0]

I'm taking CMich for two units. Hoping to give 7.

 

Haven't looked into over/under yet.

 

Thanks for the play buddy. I'm on Central Michigan -7 (-120)

 

Good luck to all!

 

[phillybear 364]

Overall College YTD: 260-225-6; +50.72 units

Subset: 2 unit plays or higher: 133-106-2; +61.82 units

Subset: College bowls: 4-1; +8.7 units

 

Tuesday

 

Middle Tenn St (+7.5) for 2 units LOSER!!

 

Centr Mich is seeing 70% of the action, yet the line has tumbled from -9.5 to -7.5. Why? MOTIVATION!!!!!!

 

Cent Mich lost their coach for this game, as HC Kelly left for Cincinnati after the regular season ended. Along with 3 assistants, including the defensive and special teams coordinators. Not a good situation for Cent Mich, having been abandoned. How do they get fired up for this game? This blindsided them, not even hearing rumors of a coaching exodus. And three very important coaches are gone. What about their schemes, game planning?

 

Sure, Central Mich is a good team, and they were great vs the spread, going 11-2 ATS this year. I played on them a lot this year. Reality is that Central Mich went 2-4 SU vs bowl teams. Central Mich has a decided advantage on the offensive side of the ball, but Midd Tenn St has the better defense. And it's that defense that I think will keep Midd Tenn St in this game. In fact, Centr Mich was ranked #8 in defense in the MAC this year. They made up for this deficiency all year long with turnovers forced, special teams, and good quick strike offensive execution.

 

Midd Tenn St prepares well with time off, as they are 4-0 ATS when having 2 weeks or more off before a game. A couple of games this year showed me that Midd Tenn St can hang in there with good teams. They outplayed, outstatted Maryland, yet lost 24-10. They outplayed Louisville for the first half, before falling apart in the middle stages of the second half. I think Midd Tenn St hangs around for the whole game today vs a dispirited Cent Mich team.

 

Good luck to all.

[JetsFan28 0]

Overall College YTD: 260-225-6; +50.72 units

Subset: 2 unit plays or higher: 133-106-2; +61.82 units

Subset: College bowls: 4-1; +8.7 units

 

Tuesday

 

Middle Tenn St (+7.5) for 2 units

 

Centr Mich is seeing 70% of the action, yet the line has tumbled from -9.5 to -7.5. Why? MOTIVATION!!!!!!

 

Cent Mich lost their coach for this game, as HC Kelly left for Cincinnati after the regular season ended. Along with 3 assistants, including the defensive and special teams coordinators. Not a good situation for Cent Mich, having been abandoned. How do they get fired up for this game? This blindsided them, not even hearing rumors of a coaching exodus. And three very important coaches are gone. What about their schemes, game planning?

 

Sure, Central Mich is a good team, and they were great vs the spread, going 11-2 ATS this year. I played on them a lot this year. Reality is that Central Mich went 2-4 SU vs bowl teams. Central Mich has a decided advantage on the offensive side of the ball, but Midd Tenn St has the better defense. And it's that defense that I think will keep Midd Tenn St in this game. In fact, Centr Mich was ranked #8 in defense in the MAC this year. They made up for this deficiency all year long with turnovers forced, special teams, and good quick strike offensive execution.

 

Midd Tenn St prepares well with time off, as they are 4-0 ATS when having 2 weeks or more off before a game. A couple of games this year showed me that Midd Tenn St can hang in there with good teams. They outplayed, outstatted Maryland, yet lost 24-10. They outplayed Louisville for the first half, before falling apart in the middle stages of the second half. I think Midd Tenn St hangs around for the whole game today vs a dispirited Cent Mich team.

 

Good luck to all.

 

GL philly.

 

I'm on the other side of this one however. Central Michigan -8 for 2 units.

[JT 137]

Overall College YTD: 260-225-6; +50.72 units

Subset: 2 unit plays or higher: 133-106-2; +61.82 units

Subset: College bowls: 4-1; +8.7 units

 

Tuesday

 

Middle Tenn St (+7.5) for 2 units

 

Centr Mich is seeing 70% of the action, yet the line has tumbled from -9.5 to -7.5. Why? MOTIVATION!!!!!!

 

Cent Mich lost their coach for this game, as HC Kelly left for Cincinnati after the regular season ended. Along with 3 assistants, including the defensive and special teams coordinators. Not a good situation for Cent Mich, having been abandoned. How do they get fired up for this game? This blindsided them, not even hearing rumors of a coaching exodus. And three very important coaches are gone. What about their schemes, game planning?

 

Sure, Central Mich is a good team, and they were great vs the spread, going 11-2 ATS this year. I played on them a lot this year. Reality is that Central Mich went 2-4 SU vs bowl teams. Central Mich has a decided advantage on the offensive side of the ball, but Midd Tenn St has the better defense. And it's that defense that I think will keep Midd Tenn St in this game. In fact, Centr Mich was ranked #8 in defense in the MAC this year. They made up for this deficiency all year long with turnovers forced, special teams, and good quick strike offensive execution.

 

Midd Tenn St prepares well with time off, as they are 4-0 ATS when having 2 weeks or more off before a game. A couple of games this year showed me that Midd Tenn St can hang in there with good teams. They outplayed, outstatted Maryland, yet lost 24-10. They outplayed Louisville for the first half, before falling apart in the middle stages of the second half. I think Midd Tenn St hangs around for the whole game today vs a dispirited Cent Mich team.

 

Good luck to all.

 

3-3 Bowls / 18-12 last 30

 

Thanks, philly. Figured you'd have a handle on these teams.

 

This game is a classic example of an early bowl season emotion matchup. Neither team has really done much to distinguish itself, but the line is at a TD +. Sets up a great David vs Goliath mentality for the dog and, in reality, Goliath ain't that big a deal. Add in the uncertainty on the Cent Mich staff and I like Mid Tenn.

 

I got it at Middle Tennessee +8.5

 

Good luck to all!

[LSUtiger 9]

My my has the line seen some movement....I got MTSU at +9.5. We'll see. Hopefully you guys are right on that motivation factor.

[GiantsRule 0]

Hmmm...Art and philly on opposite sides. That's quite the conundrum. I'll stay put but if I can get Mid. Tenn St. at +10.5, I may just have to go a-middlin'.

 

Of course, I could stay tuned during the game and take advantage of live betting, but I may not be able to.

[LSUtiger 9]

Wow MTSU and the points is looking terrible at this point. Their defense is a total sieve - someone was saying it was pretty decent??

[teejay booker 0]

Wow MTSU and the points is looking terrible at this point. Their defense is a total sieve - someone was saying it was pretty decent??

 

CMU is clearly the superior team here. This reminds me of the South Florida - East Carolina game where SFU was a far better team, and ECU had no shot from the moment the whistle blew. The over might have been the play in this game. I think CMU is going to win by about 28 points.