Bet against your team to guarantee money?

[DrJ 0]

I've sold a pair of tickets to the NFC Championship Game. If the Bears win, the NFC Championship is here and they're good. If they lose, I have to refund the money.

 

Should I take half of this money and bet against the Bears to guarantee that I make some money?

 

Emotionally, it's a little tough to bet against my team. But thanks the spread, I'm not doing that entirely and it would guarantee some money while giving me a small window to even come out ahead and get 150% of my sale price. Seeing the Bears win by 3 with a 4 1/2 point spread would have me dancing my way home. It almost seems like a no brainer.

 

Would you bet against your team under these circumstances, would it matter what the spread is?

[Lionsjunkie 1]

Yes......and start this weekend by grabbing KC +7 points ...you could essentially make enough money off of the WC games and not worry about betting against Da Bears

[DrJ 0]

Yes......and start this weekend by grabbing KC +7 points ...you could essentially make enough money off of the WC games and not worry about betting against Da Bears

 

LOL, not a sports gambler so this is a one time deal.

 

If it's a really nice spread, I think I'm definitely going to do it. A large window to hit 150% is what I ideally would want. If it's smaller, I dunno... But I probably should do it anyways, right? Any window to hit 150% gives me a +EV I would guess...

[MDC 7,435]

Why did you sell the tix? Wouldn't you want to go to the game?

[DrJ 0]

Why did you sell the tix? Wouldn't you want to go to the game?

 

I was lucky enough to get an extra pair this season, and I am already hooking up a couple of buddies for the Divisional. This one's for me.

[jerryskids 6,800]

I've sold a pair of tickets to the NFC Championship Game. If the Bears win, the NFC Championship is here and they're good. If they lose, I have to refund the money.

 

Should I take half of this money and bet against the Bears to guarantee that I make some money?

 

Emotionally, it's a little tough to bet against my team. But thanks the spread, I'm not doing that entirely and it would guarantee some money while giving me a small window to even come out ahead and get 150% of my sale price. Seeing the Bears win by 3 with a 4 1/2 point spread would have me dancing my way home. It almost seems like a no brainer.

 

Would you bet against your team under these circumstances, would it matter what the spread is?

How is this guaranteed money? If you bet against them next week, and they (and you) lose, you lost that bet plus you have to refund the money.

[DrJ 0]

How is this guaranteed money? If you bet against them next week, and they (and you) lose, you lost that bet plus you have to refund the money.

 

If I bet against them, and that bet loses, that means the Bears have won the game. I get 50%

 

If the spread were 4 1/2, and the Bears won by 3, my bet would be good, and so would the tickets. I get 150%

 

If I bet against them, and they lose the game, my bet wins. I get 50%

 

There is no condition where I could lose the bet and the Bears lose the game.

 

It seems on the surface that any chance to hit 150% increases my EV. But of course there's the rake AKA juice that I have to factor in. If the bet loses, they take what - 10%? Does that chance at 150% increase my EV more than the juice lowers it, and how much would the spread have to be for it to be worth more?

[jerryskids 6,800]

If I bet against them, and that bet loses, that means the Bears have won the game. I get 50%

 

If the spread were 4 1/2, and the Bears won by 3, my bet would be good, and so would the tickets. I get 150%

 

If I bet against them, and they lose the game, my bet wins. I get 50%

 

There is no condition where I could lose the bet and the Bears lose the game.

My bad, I gotcha. Carry on.

[MDC 7,435]

I was lucky enough to get an extra pair this season, and I am already hooking up a couple of buddies for the Divisional. This one's for me.

 

I'd never bet against my team. Why not find someone to buy the tix at face value with no refunds? Considering people would shell out hundreds for the title game, you could probably find someone who's willing to buy them now. There's always a homer out there. At least that way you're guaranteed some cash and don't have to bet against your team.

[DrJ 0]

I'd never bet against my team. Why not find someone to buy the tix at face value with no refunds? Considering people would shell out hundreds for the title game, you could probably find someone who's willing to buy them now. There's always a homer out there. At least that way you're guaranteed some cash and don't have to bet against your team.

 

I am guaranteed to get face value back anyways - if the game doesn't happen I can get a check back or apply to next season. I guess that would ensure that I doubled my money, but a bet that favors me where I get somewhere around 5 to my 1 is definitely a better play.

 

There's also a market called "futures" now where I could sell the "right" to the ticket now. If the game happens, they buy at face value. If it doesn't, they're out their money. However the futures are going for well under half of what tickets are, so that's not a +EV move either. In fact, it's worse than hedging...

 

I'm thinking that this is less of a no brainer now that I posted at 2+2. One poster is saying that since every sports bet is slightly -EV (due to the juice), I should only hedge against if this this super significant amount of money to me, or I think it is a good bet on it's own.

 

And no, I don't think the Bears are going to lose.

 

So it really comes back to how significant the money is... and 50% of it isn't....

 

So, most likely no bet. It seems that staying put is the highest EV there is given that I think the Bears will win the game.

[TommyGavin 790]

for a "Non sports gambler" as you said, you sure put alot of thought and effort into this.

 

(JUST make the damn bet!)

[DrJ 0]

for a "Non sports gambler" as you said, you sure put alot of thought and effort into this.

 

(JUST make the damn bet!)

 

Well, I do gamble on other stuff.

 

And the more I calculate this out myself, I'm thinking that's a bad move.

 

You figure the odds of the teams with the spread is 50/50. So we'll assign these percentages:

 

Probability that Bears win and cover: 50%

Probability that Bears win and opps cover: 15%

Probability that Opps win straight up: 35%

 

We'll assign a value of $100 to the ticket sale. So, my expectation of keeping the tickets and making no bet here is $65 (65% chance at 100).

 

My expectation if I make the bet (without juice) is:

 

15% chance at $150: 22.50

85% chance at $50: 42.50

Total expectation: $65.

 

As long as I keep the odds with the spread 50/50, it doesn't matter where I move the cover %, the expectation is the same. And then having to pay the juice makes it slightly -EV to have made the bet in the 1st place.

 

I was just wondering if there was some way I could play this that would mathematically win in the long term, and it appears that making a bet certainly isn't that way. My suspicion that the middle ground would make this a +EV is complete crap.

 

And for various emotional reasons, I would prefer not to make the bet unless it was the right move to make...

 

So, no bet. I can afford to lose 50% of they money...the amount I would be guaranteeing.

[DrJ 0]

Alright, now that the spread has been released this is rather interesting.

 

According to the money line, Da Bears have about an 80% chance of winning. So, I could actually guarantee a little over 80% of my money - by betting against using the money line.

 

Say it's 1K we're talking about.

 

I take $175 of that money and wager it against Da Bears at +370.

 

If Da Bears win, I lose my $175 and keep $825.

 

If Da Bears lose, I have 4.7 times that $175, or $822.50.

 

It's starting to look like some pretty reasonable insurance.... If I don't do this, I'm basically betting $825 on the Bears straight up with a chance to win $175...

 

Thoughts?

[KSB2424 3,148]

If you did nothing and the Bears won, how much money would you make off the sell of the tix?

[TimmySmith 2,782]

The way the Bears have been playing I would hedge, at least you get something. If they were huge favs I would not.

[DrJ 0]

If you did nothing and the Bears won, how much money would you make off the sell of the tix?

 

For our hypothetical, we're going to go with $1000.

 

So, if the Bears win, I'd make $1000 by standing pat.

 

If I hedge, I will make $825 no matter what the Bears do...

 

The way the Bears have been playing I would hedge, at least you get something. If they were huge favs I would not.

 

When I looked earlier today, the line was 9 and the money line was +355 for Seattle (giving them about a 22% chance to win the game).

 

I just looked again, and it is now 9.5 and the money line is +370 for Seattle (giving them about a 21% chance to win the game).

 

That money line makes them about an 80/20 favorite. And people are obviously betting Bears since it is moving further that way....

 

I just know this....if they win I'm going to be happy with 82.5% of that money. Less happy than I would have been with 100% of it, but still 82.5% as happy. If they lose, I'm going to be VERY pissed that they lost - the 3rd straight home loss I've been to, I'm not going to the NFC Championship game, the Bears aren't going to the Superbowl, and I'm out 100% of a good amount of coin. So if I could still get 82.5% of the money in this scenario, I at least take one kick to the groin out of the equation.

 

The amount we're talking about here does have 4 digits...it's not life changing money or anything, but it's not chump change either.

[KSB2424 3,148]

Look at it this way:

 

My Book has the Bears -450 and the Hawks +350

 

You sell the tickets for $1,000

 

If the Bears are -450 on the money line then if any gambler wanted to make $1,000 they would have to put up $4,500. All you have to put up is $1,000. You are getting one helluv a price from a gambling perspective without hedging.

 

BTW, I am not sure if your math is correct. In order to win $1000 by betting on the Seahawks via the ML you would have to put up almost $300.00.

 

If it were me, my money, and my favorite team, I wouldn't hedge and root like a mother for a Bears win.

[DrJ 0]

Look at it this way:

 

My Book has the Bears -450 and the Hawks +350

 

You sell the tickets for $1,000

 

If the Bears are -450 on the money line then if any gambler wanted to make $1,000 they would have to put up $4,500. All you have to put up is $1,000. You are getting one helluv a price from a gambling perspective without hedging.

 

BTW, I am not sure if your math is correct. In order to win $1000 by betting on the Seahawks you would have to put up almost $300.00.

 

If it were me, my money, and my favorite team, I wouldn't hedge and root like a mother for a Bears win.

 

 

Getting my numbers from pinnacle. We'll use your line here though, and we'll make it 200 for easy calculations.

 

I bet $200 at +350. I win $700, and I still have my original $200, for a total of $900. 900 is 4.5 times 200.

 

Is that not the right way to calculate this?

 

I do realize that I am sitting on top of a TERRIFIC bet here from a gambling perspective. But I don't gamble at these stakes... I play $.25 ante holdem.

 

Like I said, one way to look at it: If I don't make this bet, I am risking $800 to win $200. I guarantee I would never walk into a casino with $800, I would never put a wager of $800 on any sports team, etc. And that is only the hypothetical amount, mind you...

 

I think it would be +EV if I can get the +370 that I see at pinnacle, and even slightly +EV even using your lines. Since these stakes are outside of what I typically like to gamble with, I'd probably even be willing to sacrifice a small amount of EV to reduce variance. Luckily, it just doesn't appear that I'll have to...

 

If I were only able to guarantee 50 or 60%, I'd just roll with it. But being able to guarantee 80% or even slightly more....all of the sudden it becomes a lot more interesting and I'm having a tough time with this.

[KSB2424 3,148]

 

I bet $200 at +350. I win $700, and I still have my original $200, for a total of $900. 900 is 4.5 times 200.

 

Is that not the right way to calculate this?

 

 

No that is not how you calculate this. If you wager $200 on the Hawks ML and win then you win 700.00 dollars total. You don't get your $200 back because you never lost it. In other words you have the $1,000 from the ticket sales and you bet the Hawks for $200 on the money line then then you win $700 from the bet but lose the $1,000.

 

You have the right idea, but the numbers are a little off because you are re-including the intial bet into your return.

[DrJ 0]

No that is not how you calculate this. If you wager $200 on the Hawks ML and win then you win 700.00 dollars total. You don't get your $200 back because you never lost it. In other words you have the $1,000 from the ticket sales and you bet the Hawks for $200 on the money line then then you win $700 from the bet but lose the $1,000.

 

You have the right idea, but the numbers are a little off because you are re-including the intial bet into your return.

 

 

If I have this wrong, why is it that the two sources I am finding say this is the way to calculate it?

 

http://www.smartcapper.com/cgi-bin/basic/i...p;amount=200.00

 

This one says you do indeed get 900.

 

And here it says:

 

Every $400 bet on Serena nets a $100 profit if she wins (plus the return of the $400 risked). If her opponent pulls off the upset, $100 bet on the underdog would profit $360 (plus the return of the $100 risked).

 

 

http://sportsgambling.about.com/od/sportsg...Money_Lines.htm

 

ETA: 2+2'ers have also confirmed that I get to keep the original amount wagered. As they put it, think of what would happen if you bet Seattle +100.

 

+364 kicks ass. Wish I jumped on this last night at +370, but this will do. I'm placing a $375 bet against Da Bears...

[KSB2424 3,148]

So you are saying that if you have $1,000.00 in your pocket and you wager $200.00 on the Seahawks ML at +350 and win, then you will then have $1,900.00?

 

The sportsbook you are using debits the $200 and does credit it back to zero it out, but the net result that you win is only $700. You cannot say that you won $900.00 and use that number to create your calculations.

[DrJ 0]

So you are saying that if you have $1,000.00 in your pocket and you wager $200.00 on the Seahawks ML at +350 and win, then you will then have $1,900.00?

 

The sportsbook you are using debits the $200 and does credit it back to zero it out, but the net result that you win is only $700. You cannot say that you won $900.00 and use that number to create your calculations.

 

Ah, I understand what you're saying.

 

I have $2150 right now.

 

If I bet $375 and the Bears win, I have 2150 - 375, or 1775 - no refunds.

 

If I bet $375 and the Bears lose, I have 2150 + 1365. But then since I have to refund, I only have my 1365 winnings.

 

So I have to bet a bit more to make this break even. It looks like the evening point is actually $460 - $465. Thus, I am only guaranteeing 78.6%.

 

If you're advising me not to do this, let me ask you - would you wager $1690 for a chance to win $460 on Da Bears this weekend? I would have to wager $1860 for a chance to get that $460 using pinnacle's -404, so I agree it is definitely a favorable bet compared to the odds. Is that enough of an EV difference for you to jump without thinking twice at that bet?

 

Another thing I could do is a semi hedge...rather than sacrifice all of the EV, just do it partly. Scale the bet back to like $300, that way I get 86% if they win and only 50% if they lose...

[KSB2424 3,148]

To be honest, it is all in how much you want to gamble. You could straight hedge against the ML with a $460 bet and gaurantee yourself close to $1700 no matter what happens. If you do not feel like gambling and need the money this is prolly the way to go.

 

Or if you feel like rolling the dice a little then you could just bet the Seahawks for a $1,000 plus the 8.5 pts.

This would create the following senerio:

 

Hawks win the game you are: + $1,000.00

Bears win by 8 pts or less: +3,150.00

Bears win by 9pts or more: +1,050.00

 

Or you could stand pat and wager the whole thing on a Bears win.

 

It is all in how much you want to gamble.

[DrJ 0]

To be honest, it is all in how much you want to gamble. You could straight hedge against the ML with a $460 bet and gaurantee yourself close to $1700 no matter what happens. If you do not feel like gambling and need the money this is prolly the way to go.

 

Or if you feel like rolling the dice a little then you could just bet the Seahawks for a $1,000 plus the 8.5 pts.

This would create the following senerio:

 

Hawks win the game you are: + $1,000.00

Bears win by 8 pts or less: +3,150.00

Bears win by 9pts or more: +1,050.00

 

Or you could stand pat and wager the whole thing on a Bears win.

 

It is all in how much you want to gamble.

 

Agreed....I've been weighing that option as well. You figure it's 50/50 against the spread, and the Seahawks are getting about a 20% chance to win outright. That means it's about 70% I would get the 1K and only 30% I'd get the 3K. While I'd be going if the Bears won by 7 or so, I'm not sure I like those chances...

 

I definitely don't like any scenario where I have a chance of walking away with 0 either. I'm too much of a wuss.

 

I'm thinking I'll be going with the $460 bet. Take my $1700, be a wuss, and call it a day. And sit back and enjoy the game knowing I don't have a dime riding on it.

 

And no, I don't need the money, it is entirely discretionary money. But at the same time, it is an awful lot of discretionary money. My TV sucks, my Stereo sucks...I can think of a lot of fun ways to spend $1700...