The Larry Johnson 416 carries debate

[compone 0]

I see more relevance comparing carries per game, rather then a heavy work load the previous year. Not really carries per game, but maybe exposure or projected carries per game could maybe predict an injury. If a RB get 5 carries per game, maybe there's less a risk compared to someone who carries it 25 times per game. Maybe more exposure to the football element, the more injury risk. Maybe the risk is higher at 5 carries, compared to 10. Who knows!

 

I guess what I mean is the more carries a RB has at ANY GIVEN time the more risk of injury. So, while history shows the following year after a heavy work load shows a huge drop off. Maybe it's true, but maybe the risk is just there because that same RB is giving the same heavy work load. Obviously Larry Johnson has more of an injury risk compared to maybe a Marion Barber. Why? maybe because LJ will probably get 20 carries (320 year), 2-3 rec per game compared to maybe 10 carries (160 year), 3-4 rec per game. More exposure / more risk.

 

Project the drop off that way and I'll be happy. Jacobs projected at 300 carries maybe a 15% risk, LT at 400 carries probably a 20% risk, but maybe players are different. Jamal Anderson at 400 carries maybe a 25% injury risk. Maybe LT at 400 carries isn't a 20% risk, maybe 5% because of the player he is.

 

Who knows! I just think there's more relevance as to the # of carries a player is giving at any giving time!

[t.j 35]

LT is also an exception to the 370 carry rule theory.

 

He makes the criteria of 372 carries in 2002, falling to 313 carries in 2003. Done, move on, he fits into the box, and counts as a dropoff.

 

It fails to take into account that he actually had a BETTER fantasy year in 2003, when he had 100 receptions for 725 yds, or 236 more rec yards ontop of 3 more rec tds. His rush yards were only down 38 yards from 2002 with one less rush td.

 

So not only was there no dropoff in fantasy points for LT after 2002, the facts are; there was an improvement in fantasy points in 2003.

 

The "370 carry rule theory"? I think you are under the mistaken impression that there is an exact spot (apparently 370) where people think the dropoff occurs. That is not the case, but things have certainly been bad for the players at the top. In my analysis I listed the data for players who carried 375 times or more. Read these posts as to why:

http://www.fftodayforums.com/forum/index.p...66227&st=19

http://www.fftodayforums.com/forum/index.p...66227&st=22

 

The further down you drop the bar, the more players you will find that were able to approach or succeed the same level of production in their follow-up season. The data shows that there is a general range where a huge dropoff is expected, and below that range it is not. If you want to include 370-374, then yes you get LT 2002, but you also get Earl Campbell 1980, Curtis Martin 2004, Christian Okoye 1989, and Shaun Alexander 2005, huge dropoffs. All in all, the 6 players who carried the ball between 370 and 374 times in the regular season experienced a decrease in rushing FF production of 39%, which is very similar to the dropoff of the 375+ carry group. If you go below 370, then you start to see a lot more guys who did not suffer the next year, but then you are starting to discuss guys that were not even within 50 carries of what LJ did last year...

[Franknbeans 46]

HMMM, I wonder what Larry thinks?

[t.j 35]

I agree on the history of this stat. However, anytime a stat is broken there is huge chance there is a decline the following year. You can't expect a huge record in any stat to keep increasing or remain steady... You have to expect a drop off the following year. I think this just points at the stats and doesn't really look at the overall picture.

 

Of course if LJ has 416 carries one year, he will have less carries the next, less TD's, less fantasy points. He had 416 carries because Bennett was hurt for part of the year. More then likely LJ will have about 320 carries in '07.

 

I am not sure if you saw this earlier post in the middle of page 3, and my response in the post after it:

http://www.fftodayforums.com/forum/index.p...6227&st=104

 

I think one piece of analysis that might "confirm" (or diminish) a causal relationship here is looking at backs with carries between, say 300-340. I think part of the issue may be that, hey, if a guy wasn't tearing it up he probably wouldn't be getting 370 carries. To a lesser extent, the same directionally applies to guys in the 300-340 range

 

...

 

If the data looks similar for the 300-340 group, I'd be less nervous about drafting LJ. I suspect it's not as bad, but still pretty bad. t.j., how long do you think that would take using your method?

 

What you said about the "5 running backs will fall out of last year's top 10 effect" does apply, somewhat. Runners who carry 300-340 times in the regular season will probably be in top ten too. But the reduction in carries for backs in this range is less than half that of the extreme workload backs (375+ regular season carries). There is no reduction in yards per carry, unlike the extreme workload backs. The reduction in touchdowns is roughly 1/3 when compared to the extreme workload backs:

 

PLAYERS				 RA RS	RYDS	  RAVG RTD 	FP   	RADif   RYDif 	RAVgDif RTDDif  FPDif  
300-340 AVG FOLLOW-UP   265	  1106	  4.17 8.3 	160.4	-55.1	-228.1	0.0	  -1.4	-31.4
375+ AVG FOLLOW-UP	  260.8	1052.5	4.04 7.26	148.8	-128 	-672	  -0.40	-6.79	-107.9

 

Or, instead of looking at the reductions, look at the total numbers for the average follow-up seasons. The 101 RBs who carried the ball between 300-340 times in the regular season averaged more carries, more yards, more yards per carry, and more touchdowns in their follow-up season than the 20 RBs who carried the ball 375+ times in the regular season.

[nobody 2,091]

Your logic is flawed. Blowing out an ACL in year x has NOTHING to do with the amount of work done the year before. Ligament ruptures aren't a result of a hard year's work, they are traumatic and singular events that happen to players all over the NFL every season. You can't predict that. You are trying to marry stats with coincidence. It's like saying people with red hair have a better chance to blow out a knee.

I know that's what people say, but as someone who's ruptured an ACL, I would say muscle fatigue has something to do with it. Wear out those leg muscles and those ligaments are at risk.

[t.j 35]

Well, it's about time for the season to start. Check back around week 16 or so!

[bno70_1 0]

I know that's what people say, but as someone who's ruptured an ACL, I would say muscle fatigue has something to do with it. Wear out those leg muscles and those ligaments are at risk.

Not true. I've blown out both ACL's and neither had to do with muscle fatigue..... from the previous year!!!! lol

 

Getting tons of carries in 06 does not increase the chances of an ACL injury in 07.

[t.j 35]

Well, it's about time for the season to start. Check back around week 16 or so!

 

Year Player				G	 Rush Yds   Avg  TD  FP	 AttDif YdsDif YPCDif TDDif FPDif Age
2006 Larry Johnson, KC	16	  416  1789  4.3  17  280.9
'07  Larry Johnson, KC	 8	  158   559  3.5   3   73.9   -258  -1230   -0.8   -14  -207 27.8

[urban1 0]

I forgot about this debate. Good find!

[surferskin 30]

Year Player				G	 Rush Yds   Avg  TD  FP	 AttDif YdsDif YPCDif TDDif FPDif Age
2006 Larry Johnson, KC	16	  416  1789  4.3  17  280.9
'07  Larry Johnson, KC	 8	  158   559  3.5   3   73.9   -258  -1230   -0.8   -14  -207 27.8

any predictions for 08?

[zaurg 0]

Great work TJ...

 

I won't say it is a no-brainer that LJ will have a significant dropoff just b/c of the workload. I get the feeling that if he gets hurt next season, it will be due to an injury that isn't due to overuse. I'm dropping him more due to further deteriation of his line-now losing Will Shields-and the aging and talent of the rest of his supporting cast.

 

 

^^ agreed.

 

Also, is LT2 immune to this workload issue? When will we see a major dropoff in production from him? I don't consider this year a "major dropoff", he's played every game and is pretty close to last year's 25 touch/game pace and is the overall #1 FF RB.

[KSB2424 3,086]

While I think overworking a RB could "possibly" have an effect on durablity the next year, I find this more of a coincidence rather than a coorelation.

 

With that said, will somebody remind me not to draft Willie Parker next year?

[The Hood 9]

any predictions for 08?

I'd stay away from Willie Parker and his heavy workload.

[surferskin 30]

I'd stay away from Willie Parker and his heavy workload.

acreed but what about LJ???

[The Hood 9]

acreed but what about LJ???

 

A little better than what he was doing this year when. Don't think Croyle/Chiefs will be good enough for him to return to his monster production.

 

340 car 1300 yds 10 TD's

[t.j 35]

While I think overworking a RB could "possibly" have an effect on durablity the next year, I find this more of a coincidence rather than a coorelation.

 

Durability question aside, look at the yards per carry dropoff. Even before he got hurt, it's like he wasn't even the same guy.

[t.j 35]

any predictions for 08?

 

I would have to defer to NAn on that one. His study is the one that has data on players in years beyond just the first year after a heavy workload. Although, off the top of my head, thinking about Shaun Alexander (who is the guy who inspired me to research this stuff in the first place), I don't think I would expect a return to greatness.

[KSB2424 3,086]

Durability question aside, look at the yards per carry dropoff. It's like he wasn't even the same guy.

I'm not saying you are wrong, you could very much have a valid point. But there are so many other factors at play (i.e. change in OL, different Defenses, ect.) that you can't just make the broad assumption that his heavy workload in 06 directly caused him to get hurt. There is no real way to prove that, so it is your opinion.

[surferskin 30]

I would have to defer to NAn on that one. His study is the one that has data on players in years beyond just the first year after a heavy workload. Although, off the top of my head, thinking about Shaun Alexander (who is the guy who inspired me to research this stuff in the first place), I don't think I would expect a return to greatness.

he's a lot younger than alexander though...and not a complete pvssy, like alexander the ghey either.

[t.j 35]

I'm not saying you are wrong, you could very much have a valid point. But there are so many other factors at play (i.e. change in OL, different Defenses, ect.) that you can't just make the broad assumption that his heavy workload in 06 directly caused him to get hurt. There is no real way to prove that, so it is your opinion.

 

I wasn't talking about him getting hurt. Read my post again.

 

But since you are talking about the injury... true, no one can prove that the workload caused him to get hurt, but no one can prove that it didn't, either.

[t.j 35]

he's a lot younger than alexander though...and not a complete pvssy, like alexander the ghey either.

 

He's not really a lot younger than Alexander. He's 2 years younger, and Alexander had his heavy workload season 1 year earlier. So that makes LJ one year younger on the heavy workload timeline. I agree that Alexander is a pvssy, though.

[DankNuggs 305]

Not true. I've blown out both ACL's and neither had to do with muscle fatigue..... from the previous year!!!! lol

 

Getting tons of carries in 06 does not increase the chances of an ACL injury in 07.

I tore my ACL, it was due to a small asian kid getting tangled in my legs as i swatted his meek attempt at a layup in an intramural basketball game.

 

im amazed at how these guys come back from these injuries, i can certainly tell my knee isn't the same.

[DankNuggs 305]

bottom line, LJ looked good as the season wore on... Injury was a freak thing in a game he was dominating.

[Patriotsfatboy1 1,432]

So, does he go in the first round next year of a redraft? I was one of those putzes who picked him in the first round (4th overall). We have a single keeper where we lose the round that he was picked in next season. If I end up with a top 8 selection, then I definitely don't keep him, but I might consider it if I am 11th or 12th.

 

I have other options, but I was actually thinking that if I know that I am not going to keep him, I will cut his ass and pick up another defense for this week.

[Lionsjunkie 1]

Good Thread

 

I stay away from FWP for the simple fact that I hate the Steelers and would draft anybody over him

[t.j 35]

bottom line, LJ looked good as the season wore on... Injury was a freak thing in a game he was dominating.

 

Is that the bottom line? Let's evaluate whether what you said is even true, for starters.

 

Prior to the Green Bay game, LJ had two good games against awful run defenses. The Raiders allow 4.7 yards per carry on the season and LJ gained 4.7 on them. The Bengals allow 4.2 yards per carry and LJ gained 3.8 against them. He did have a large number of carries and good receiving stats. Prior to that, he played against Jacksonville and gained a pitiful 12 yards on 9 carries. In his final game, he gained 53 yards on 19 carries (2.8 per) against the Packers, I would hardly call that dominating.

 

His production improved a little bit as the season went on, but at no time was he able to fight through traffic, nor did he look good IMO. Aside from one big 54 yard run through a gaping hole against the Raiders, he wasn't getting much of anything on the ground, even at midseason.