Iran's nuclear gambit

[Concrete Charlie 0]

We all know the Iranians are working towards developing nuclear arms. We all know it has caused concern, if not alarm, in the region and across the world.

Some of us, and some in high places, feel it is inevitable that Iran will have nuclear weapons in the next 10 years. And some of them think that's okay, that we can simply play the same game we played and won, with the Soviet Union: mutally assured destruction.

I think its simplistic to assume that the we can successfully deter the Iranians from using the bomb, directly, or most likely indirectly, to achieve their aim of dominating the Middle East, and thereby most of the oil, and thereby the world.

First of all, if Iran were so armed, other powers such as Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and possibly even Syria would follow suit and begin developing their own nuclear arsenals.

In the meantime, Iran would become very aggressive, coercing and threatening it neighbors, to its obvious advantage, all the time believing we(Western powers) would not be willing to confront them squarely, that is, to escalate tensions with a nuclear armed MiddleEast power. They might be right. Or they might be wrong. The thing is, nobody knows how they'd play their hand if they are holding. The nightmare scenario of passing nukes to terrorist groups is not far fetched. They might use one themselves. No one knows.

And if other regional nations also arm themsleves with nukes, deterence becomes very very difficult. Say a nuke goes off above Cyprus. Who do you retaliate against? In 1960, we'd know it was the Rooskies. If Iran, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Greece and Israel are known nuclear armed states, you don't know who to squash.

 

If Iran gets the bomb, that's pretty scary. If Iran gets the bomb, many others will soon follow, and that is even scarier. I'm glad i'm old.

[Voltaire 5,316]

I agree. It's got to be prevented at all costs. The stoopid Koreans already have them. I'm not so afraid of Iran using a bomb so much as I am being at the crossroads where nuclear weapons and terrorists meet. MAD doesn't work to combat terrorists. Those facilities need to be destroyed. It's really botersome that we don't have the resolve -or maybe even capability anymore- to do so. If a terrorist ever gets their hands on a bomb, that's it, Iran and North Korea immediatly turn to glass.

[GobbleDog 996]

So what's the solution? A pre-emptive attack? Right now Americans won't support another war, regardless if it's in the best interests of the US. And diplomacy isn't working... Iran flat out ignores UN sanctions.

 

What ticks me off is Russia helped Iran build those damn reactors. Why doesn't the UN draw up sanctions against them?

 

Putin

[Concrete Charlie 0]

I agree. It's got to be prevented at all costs. The stoopid Koreans already have them. I'm not so afraid of Iran using a bomb so much as I am being at the crossroads where nuclear weapons and terrorists meet. MAD doesn't work to combat terrorists. Those facilities need to be destroyed. It's really botersome that we don't have the resolve -or maybe even capability anymore- to do so. If a terrorist ever gets their hands on a bomb, that's it, Iran and North Korea immediatly turn to glass.

 

I think unless something dramatic occurs soon, we're going to be looking at a world where around 50+ nations are holding a nuclear option. Some will have ballisitic missile delivery systems, some may see advantage in clandestine nuclear terror operations. There's no shortage of nightmare scenarios.

 

Consider a world where countries such as Iran, Turkey, Indonesia, S. Korea, Japan, Australia, Algeria, Greece(see Turkey), Germany etc., all have hydrogen bombs. The chances of deliberate use will rise and are bad enough, but chances for unauthorized use, or a use by miscalculation, become very great. It will only be a matter of time before a real disaster occurs, and global castastrophy will be right on the doorstep.

 

We have the chance to stop it now, but time is not on our side.

[Concrete Charlie 0]

So what's the solution? A pre-emptive attack? Right now Americans won't support another war, regardless if it's in the best interests of the US. And diplomacy isn't working... Iran flat out ignores UN sanctions.

 

What ticks me off is Russia helped Iran build those damn reactors. Why doesn't the UN draw up sanctions against them?

 

Putin

 

Right, the Russians chose to take the money and influence, and run with it. Putin may well rue the day they agreed to build the Bushehr plant in Iran.

There are no easy solutions to Iran. We're over extended as far as ground troops and national determination. The Euros obviously aren't gonna do squat, and regional countries are very worried but Iran is already the big kid on the block.

The only way i see out of it is to show a united diplomatic front to Tehran, make loud offers to help Iran integrate with the West economically and culturally which will go a long way to win the hearts and minds of the Iranian public, many of whom are at odds with the strict Islamic bent of the regime.

If that fails, a total maritime and aviation blockade of Iran might have to be tried. Sanctions won't do it, although their psychological effect on the Iranian public will be useful to undermine the regime.

The problem remaining is that if the Islamic regime falls, the IRGC(republican guard) will probably take power and they might be worse in a sense than the clerics. They are the real physical muscle of the country, are super nationalist, and already control the military and the nuclear program. Talk about tyrannic rule...

 

But I think to let things go as they are is a betrayal of our children and all future generations.

[nobody 2,672]

I agree. It's got to be prevented at all costs. The stoopid Koreans already have them.

The Koreans don't have Nukes. Some assclown in their government admits that they have a nuclear program and everyone makes the leap and says they have nukes. Don't you think they would have had to test one of them successfully before they can actually brag about having them.

[Logan5 0]

Ok if you are Iran...what American cities are you gonna take out first....and i would just like to add....i have no idea what to do when the attack comes......

[Toro 1]

Don't tell the liberals.

 

They think it's wrong for the US to be able to tell any other country how it should be run. They think that world opinion matters and would choose for Iran to have nuclear weapons than to have some more people not like the US.

[lechuza 0]

the US really has little to fear about Iran having nuclear weapons. They have no way to get it to our mainland, and even if they try, we could wipe the country off of the earth so it would be suicide for them to try anything against us. Iran's neighbors should be the ones a little concerned, especially Israel obviously, but Israel also could destrory Iran pretty easily.

 

If the world decides to disarm them that is fine with me, but in no way should it just be the US that is responsible for doing so, it needs to be with everyone working against Iran.