FFToday Medical Journal

[NAn 39]

'The Barlow Effect Revisited' from FFToday Medical Journal

 

It's been around throughout the history of fantasy football, but only came to the fore front as a diagnosable ailment in 2004 by a select number of fftodayers including Walter34, Da Bomb, Fumbleweed, Miller Time, V4E and myself.

It’s called the 'Barlow Effect'(sometimes called JJ Arrington Syndrome) and is an epidemic that affects FFers all over the country each year, at this time of year...particularly here at FFToday.

 

It's not that everyone 'thinks' MJD/Maroney will be studs...it's that they want...almost have a pavlovian need...for them to be studs.

So they can validate their picking of them in mid/early 2nd (MJD) or late 1st/early 2nd (Maroney) and 'pound their chests' about being the FF genius/risk taker that got this year's breakout player.

 

The Syndrome or Effect is initiated by a number of factors:

1. A semi-breakout game or series of games

2. Opportunity to be ‘main ball carrier’

3. A rookie drafted onto team with high profile offense

4. IMMENSE hype from all over the board

 

This hype-rush is common amongst FFers...Ben Gay, David Pattern, Nick Goings...the list goes on and on and has been proven by independent studies to be more addictive than nicotine and heroin.

 

If you feel the onset of the symptoms of the Barlow Effect (or JJAS):

1. Think beyond that one players breakout...how will your team look overall if you draft that player where he is going (likely higher by your real drafts)? Will it be worth it?

2. Do your actual projections/tierings for that player.... again, will it be worth it?

3. Consider the 27.3% success rate of players with the common factors of the BE (JJAS)...is it worth it to be the ff genius/risk taker if your FF team is home for the playoffs?

4. If you went a safer route...would your team be that worse off without the BE (JJAS) candidate on your roster? Maybe better?

5. Reach out to a support group: FFToday Barlow Effect Support Group has an excellent group. You can post your need to pick MDJ/Maroney and the brethren on the board...who know what you're going thru...will reach out to you.

 

Me: 'My name is Nan and I want to draft Maroney/MDJ in the 2nd round.'

 

All(in unison): 'Hello Nan.'

[famousb 11]

 

correct me if i am wrong, but isn't the Barlow Effect very similar to Second Year RB Syndrome??

[GobbleDog 822]

I have the oppisite problem... I'll avoid a possible gem, just to make sure I get some gauranteed points.

 

ie: Give me Marvin Harrison's or Cliton Portis's gauranteed points over potential studs like Jones-Drew, Maroney, Bush, and McGahee.

 

I don't know what this ailment is called.

[KSB2424 3,087]

I have the oppisite problem... I'll avoid a possible gem, just to make sure I get some gauranteed points.

 

ie: Give me Marvin Harrison's or Cliton Portis's gauranteed points over potential studs like Jones-Drew, Maroney, Bush, and McGahee.

 

I don't know what this ailment is called.

 

NBS

 

No Balls Syndrome

[typhus 13]

The easy solution is not reaching.

Mid to late 3rd round (redraft only ) if either MJD or Maroney are available than all bets are off and one would be foolish not to take either.

Let those that suffer from the symptoms of the above stated ailment reach all they want, hey, sometimes the hit gold, and their teams benefit nicely. But on the other hand, those that often reach, just pushes more proven talent down towards you everytime.

I prefer to lay back and catch proven value.

[GobbleDog 822]

NBS

 

No Balls Syndrome

 

NBS > Barlow Effect

[NAn 39]

I have the oppisite problem... I'll avoid a possible gem, just to make sure I get some gauranteed points.

 

ie: Give me Marvin Harrison's or Cliton Portis's gauranteed points over potential studs like Jones-Drew, Maroney, Bush, and McGahee.

 

I don't know what this ailment is called.

 

excluding Portis who I have my concerns about it's called 'smart'.

[Sparkling Wiggles 0]

I'm pretty sure I've seen over 100 Vernon Morency threads in the past two years.

[Steel City Blues 0]

But the Kool-aid tastes soooooooooo good.

[sharkie22 0]

All (in unison): 'Hello Nan.'

 

Thanks for sharing...

 

Seems to me, as with most dependencies, the real issue at hand isn't so much the need for an artificial feeling of genius as much as it is the unmanageability in the lives of those who lack the ability to think through the circumstances leading up to their decisions and then believing it will somehow be different this time. In Barlows case it was unreasonable to expect his value to pan out (even if he truly was as good as many believed) due to the lack of supporting cast around him at receiver, O-line and a pourous defense. Arrington was an even more desperate attempt considering he was a rookie when the over hype occurred.

 

I think Maroney and to a lesser degree, Jones-Drew, are less extreme as reaches than either Barlow or Arrington. All RB 2's come with question marks. Durability being a concern for Maroney, at least he has shown he has the talent to do the job and I can't imagine anyone would say he lacks the supporting cast. Jones-Drew as a second round selection is on the road to relapse but the traditional health concerns of those he's competing with in Jax and the ability he showed last season still make him a safer bet than Barlow in '04 and Arrington in '05. You make a good point about doing the homework to at least be aware of what is fair to expect from any of these players but I feel I should at least point out that not everyone who uses is an addict. At least not until they repeatedly demonstrate poor judgement without learning from it.

 

I'm grateful there is a support group for reachaholics and reachaddicts. Thanks for letting me share.

[jocstrap 8]

but what about FWP last year stepping out of the shadow of Bettis? He did Ok I suppose . Then again there was frank gore and he was oh so overhyped. I don't want to say there are exceptions to this Barlow thing, but there are. The question is...do you go for one of these guys late 1st to early 3rd? I kind of like the No Balls Syndrom synonym.

 

You taking rudi and edge?

or are you taking rudi and Bush?

[cblue 0]

But the Kool-aid tastes soooooooooo good.

 

 

I like Kool-AId