Peyton Manning - How do you feel about taking him?

[Fozzy4 0]

This topic comes up because I mocked from 12 tonight and tried going Maroney->Manning as my first two picks. here are the complete results:

 

2.01 QB Peyton Manning

11.12 QB Brett Favre

 

1.12 RB Laurence Maroney

3.12 RB Brandon Jacobs

9.12 RB Warrick Dunn

10.01 RB Kevin Jones

 

4.01 WR Plaxico Burress

5.12 WR Braylon Edwards

6.01 WR Laveranues Coles

8.01 WR Santonio Holmes

14.01 WR Eddie Kennison

 

7.12 TE Kellen Winslow

12.01 TE Heath Miller

 

15.12 Some Kicker - I didn't stay to see it

 

13.12 Dallas Defense

 

The problem I had was that taking Peyton made me feel like every other position was a lot weaker, and I especially felt like I couldn't acquire the quality depth I wanted at both RB and WR - one would be neglected some. I had an eye toward a 3rd RB for a long time, but when my picks came up there was never reasonable value to draft as a #3. Even so, I'm not entirely unhappy with my backup RBs, but it would take a bit of luck for things to continue going well if one of the starters goes down. That said, the other aspects of the team felt pretty solid. Maybe this feeling is because I'm just not used to having that much value at QB, so it's easy to overlook it. I'm used to seeing the big money in RB and WR...

 

Anyway, what's everyone think? Is the team good? Is it a good strategy to take P Manning as an early rd 2 choice if there, or do you think my team would end up better with a different pick at 2.01? CJ and Reggie Wayne had caught my eye, and Edge, Ronnie Brown, or MJD would've been the best RBs available at 2.01. I really thought about a second RB, but just didn't feel confident enough to take any of those 3 at that spot - it's early for MJD, and Edge and Brown still have question marks for me given last year's performances. Neither was the sure thing I was looking for in my 2.01 pick.

 

One other note is that some great QB value got by me at the 3-4 bend b/c I already had a QB. No other QB got selected until mid-4th, meaning many other guys got steals on top-notch QBs. This could be a primary detrimental aspect to burning your QB pick early - you lose the ability to use it on a steal, or to remove a falling QB from helping someone else. Other positions are deeper than 1 starter, so consequently taking them preserves your ability to draft away falling guys, which is smart not only because it helps you, but also because it keeps someone else from getting a great deal. I have no doubt that if I didn't have Manning, I would've owned Palmer at the 3/4 bend, and likely triggered a small run on QBs... which is something I was DYING to do at that point. It's possible I could've snagged him as trade bait, but I really felt it would've just hurt my depth too much at the other skill positions, so it appears that I had largely tied my hands by drafting Manning.

[chidoy 0]

IMHO, you took Jacobs too high. I can understand your desperation to take a RB in rounds 1-2 and or 3 but you should have taken a better WR instead of Jacobs...

In terms of taking Manning at 2.01, I personally wouldn't have done it. I would have taken Ronnie or a stud WR. You could have gotten Brees/Brady/Palmer in round 4 since it would have been 4.01 and gotten another WR or RB in 3.12. or vice versa. Those 3 QB's would probably be equivalent if not better than Manning this year in terms of scoring. Good luck!

[VaTerp 0]

Ah. . . when the "taking Manning early" threads start popping up you know FF preparation season is getting into full gear.

 

To answer your question, I would feel great about taking Manning where you did. I just would have drafted differently with the rest of your picks. Its hard to say without seeing the entire mock, and the team you drafted is decent, but I certainly would have made some different choices.

 

I disagree with you saying taking Peyton hurt your depth at other positions. Last year I won my league taking Manning at 1.08, McGahee in the 2nd , Wayne in the 3rd and Gore in the 4th. . And this is a leauge where we use a flex so most start 3 Rbs.

 

By taking Manning early I locked up my QB spot and didnt have to worry about drafting a backup until late. This allowed me to use my mid round picks to solidify my depth. Guys like MBIII and L. Coles gave me great mid round value while others were scrambling to fill their QB slots.

 

And as for taking Palmer, Brees, or Brady in the 4th. Those guys will likely be gone in the 2nd and 3rd in my league. The problem I think people have with taking Manning, or any QB early, is that they panic and start reaching for Rb's just because they feel they have to draft one.

 

Last year I was sitting at 3.08 and was nervous thinking I had to grab my RB2. But I really didnt like anyone at that spot. So I took Wayne and targetted Gore to come back to me in the 4th. I was fortunate that it worked out but the same can be said for any number of successful fantasy players.

 

The thing is that EVERY single year there are are RB's in the 4th and 5th rounds who outperform guys taken at the end of the 1st and the 2nd. As for who those guys are, yeah its educated guessing. But I refuse to pass on a top rated QB for a RB Im not really comfortable drafting simply b/c he plays the position.

 

I dont plan on doing it every year but I take Manning early in a heartbeat if Im not high on the Rb's sitting there at the end of round 1. IMO, drafting Manning early and being successful requires a lil more preparation, a lil more skill, and lil more SAC that a lot of FFers clearly dont have.

[9-Route 0]

averages of ~4400/26-29, 96+% chance of finishing tops at his position, AND at rd2??? what's NOT to like!!!

[Fozzy4 0]

IMHO, you took Jacobs too high. I can understand your desperation to take a RB in rounds 1-2 and or 3 but you should have taken a better WR instead of Jacobs...

 

Really? I'm not so sure. 4.01 is Jacobs' ADP so I was right there where he typically goes. FFToday has him as 16th ranked right now. I got him more like 20-24th RB. Also, consider the pickle I'm in if I let RB slide through another 2 rounds. I'm staring at a 22 pick stretch before I get to pick again, and the prospects at 5.12 look pretty poor at RB. Julius Jones and Jerious Norwood are about the best one could expect to fall to the 5.12 pick, and neither one is a guy I want to be stuck relying on as my #2 RB this year.

[HenryChinaski 1]

You could haev pulled it off--Except for Plaxico and Braylon. I would imagine there would have been someone better at those spots...

 

Maybe Lee Evans/Reggie Brown

 

Or TJ Housh/Reggie Brown

 

?

[49ers_suck 0]

been doin some mocks, haven't taken manning in any of them. i think you nailed it when you said you felt weaker at other positions. i understand that mocks can be a good time to test different drafting strategies. and there are a lot of strategies to consider. i like to got RB RB, and then see how things play out. in a 12 or more team league pickin scraps comes a lot quicker than in a 10 team league. but imo you can pick up a good QB in later rounds and have better RB/WR depth.

[RicemanX 20]

I am doing a lot of different styles of mock draft methods, and just so happens, my first two mocks are the "Take Peyton 1st rd, then 2 RBs"

Here is how they look so far:

 

QB Peyton Manning IND 1.08 6

QB Steve McNair BAL 11.08 8

RB Travis Henry DEN 2.05 6

RB Brandon Jacobs NYG 3.08 9

RB Carnell Williams TBB 4.05 10

RB Chris Henry TEN 10.05 4

WR Hines Ward PIT 5.08 6

WR Braylon Edwards CLE 6.05 7

WR Joey Galloway TBB 7.08 10

WR Greg Jennings GBP 8.05 7

TE Chris Cooley WAS 9.08 4

PK Neil Rackers ARI 12.05 8

 

 

QB Peyton Manning IND 1.11 6

QB Matt Schaub HOU 11.11 10

RB Willis McGahee BAL 2.02 8

RB Marshawn Lynch BUF 3.11 6

RB LaMont Jordan OAK 7.11 5

RB DeShaun Foster CAR 9.11 7

WR Randy Moss NEP 4.02 10

WR Deion Branch SEA 5.11 8

WR Chris Chambers MIA 6.02 9

WR Devery Henderson NOS 10.02 4

TE Kellen Winslow CLE 8.02 7

TE Jason Witten DAL 12.02 8

 

Both are decent teams with really bad #1 WRs.

[Fozzy4 0]

You could haev pulled it off--Except for Plaxico and Braylon. I would imagine there would have been someone better at those spots...

 

Maybe Lee Evans/Reggie Brown

 

Or TJ Housh/Reggie Brown

 

?

 

When I took Plax there were Driver, Branch, Evans, Clayton, A Johnson, Edwards, Ward, Chambers, and Coles as the top remaining receivers. He looked the best to me of that bunch, w/ the possible exception of Driver. I don't want to be on board the Driver train though when it breaks down (from Favre sticking around 1 too many years, I mean) so I went with Plax who I consider about even with him. Housh went to the pick just before I was up at 3.12. As for Evans, I don't have him as high as Plax. Burress was the more consistent player last year, and seeing him pull down some ridiculous balls was rather convincing, too.

 

When my 5.12 pick came up, Driver, A Johnson, Ward, R Brown, Evans, Calvin Johnson, Branch, Darrell Jackson, and Santana Moss had come off the board. So, I could've had Clayton instead of Braylon Edwards, or Chris Chambers, but I'm not sure it would've made a bit of difference. In any case it's a receiver corps that I was pretty happy with.

[Vince44 202]

I will strongly consider him if I am picking between 9-12 in the 1st round.

[Dragan187 7]

You could have gotten Brees/Brady/Palmer in round 4 since it would have been 4.01 and gotten another WR or RB in 3.12. or vice versa.

 

 

In the 100 mocks I've done so far this year, the QBs you have mentioned are gone midway in the 3rd round.

Manning has been going late first round/ early second.

 

Palmer late 2nd round and Brees/ Brady in mid 3rd.

 

You might get Bulger in the 4th...prolly more so McNabb though.

[famousb 11]

although i think Manning is the clear-cut #1 QB, and the only one worthy of a 1st or 2nd round pick...

i don't know too many people that play in redraft leagues that win after drafting Manning...

[Dragan187 7]

although i think Manning is the clear-cut #1 QB, and the only one worthy of a 1st or 2nd round pick...

i don't know too many people that play in redraft leagues that win after drafting Manning...

 

 

I'm surprised at how many leagues there are with QBs that get a full 6 points for TD's. If that is the case, it certainly is justified at grabbing him early. AND I could see you winning your league.

[famousb 11]

I'm surprised at how many leagues there are with QBs that get a full 6 points for TD's. If that is the case, it certainly is justified at grabbing him early. AND I could see you winning your league.

 

actually, most of the leagues i play in give 6 for all tds. but even so, the extra 1 or 2 extra pts for each passing td really doesn't translate into that many total points over the course of the season compared to the next QBs...

last year, Peyton threw 31 TDs, which would be:

124pts in 4pt leagues, 186pts in 6pt leagues.

 

comparatively, Palmer threw 28 TDs,

112pts / 168pts

 

so it goes from a 12 pt difference to an 18 pt difference compared to the #2 QB.

 

even if you go down to Kitna's 21 passing TDs, you get:

84pts / 126pts.

 

so a 40pt difference turns into a 60pt difference... so even though the difference grew by 50%, look at the relative draft value of each player and the difference of RB/WR you could have gotten in each round.

if you take Manning in the 1st, you pass on guys like Rudi/Westy/Addai/Maroney/etc... and wind up taking a #1 RB like Portis/Edge/TJones in the 2nd at best. not necessarily a bad #1, but you're #2 is going to look even alot worse.

Conversely, if you wait til the 3rd and take Palmer, you potentially have two of those RBs previously mentioned and then your QB can potentially put up almost equivalent TD numbers. But your QB just isn't as 'safe' a QB pick as Manning.

[Fozzy4 0]

actually, most of the leagues i play in give 6 for all tds. but even so, the extra 1 or 2 extra pts for each passing td really doesn't translate into that many total points over the course of the season compared to the next QBs...

last year, Peyton threw 31 TDs, which would be:

124pts in 4pt leagues, 186pts in 6pt leagues.

 

comparatively, Palmer threw 28 TDs,

112pts / 168pts

 

so it goes from a 12 pt difference to an 18 pt difference compared to the #2 QB.

 

even if you go down to Kitna's 21 passing TDs, you get:

84pts / 126pts.

 

so a 40pt difference turns into a 60pt difference... so even though the difference grew by 50%, look at the relative draft value of each player and the difference of RB/WR you could have gotten in each round.

if you take Manning in the 1st, you pass on guys like Rudi/Westy/Addai/Maroney/etc... and wind up taking a #1 RB like Portis/Edge/TJones in the 2nd at best. not necessarily a bad #1, but you're #2 is going to look even alot worse.

 

Here we go on a topic I've been considering for a while now - drafting the position where you stand to lose the most ground until your next pick, production-wise. This is essentially the justification being used here - that the RB/WR you could get in rd 1/2 instead of Manning is going to have a higher production difference from the guy you'd draft in the 3rd than the difference between P Manning and a QB you could get at that point. The question is, does it work?

 

You could do a lot nastier math than this, I'm sure, but for now let's keep it relatively simple. I'll roll out some ADPs and do the FFPt math to make the comparison. Manning is the 2.01 pick on average, so we'll roll with picking from the 12 slot, assuming best projected pick out of guys that on average will be remaining - i.e. I disallow anyone with an ADP earlier than the pick. Typically from 12th would be Maroney, Manning, then Jacobs. In case 2, trying for a QB at the end of 3rd rd, we get Maroney, Brown, then Brees. Projection math:

 

Manning - Brees: 45.7

Brown - Jacobs: 6.1

 

If Jacobs makes it to you as your RB2, which he will on average, then you benefit to the tune of ~40 pts by taking Manning. If he does not, what happens? Deuce McAllister is the next best with an ADP available at 3.12, and has 167.4 pts predicted.

 

Brown - McAllister: 46.3

 

At that point it's about break even on whether or not to draft Manning. However, there is more. You can make the decision to draft Manning a better one in that case if you push off your RB2 even longer in order to get 2 WRs at the 3/4 bend. McAllister begins a long string of guys:

 

Deuce McAllister

Marshawn Lynch

Julius Jones

Clinton Portis

Marion Barber

DeAngelo Williams

Warrick Dunn

Carnell "Cadillac" Williams

Brandon Jackson

LaMont Jordan

Ladell Betts

Ahman Green

Tatum Bell

 

They span 167.4 pts predicted to 148.0 pts predicted. A few have higher ADPs, but you can certainly get 1 at the 5/6 bend. For argument's sake let's say it's Tatum Bell w/ his 148 pt projection. If we assume you were going to draft identically the other way except for having Brown in the 2nd instead of Manning (i.e. RB RB WR WR) and taking a QB in 6 instead of that RB2, then the differences are:

 

Manning - Kitna: 95.7

Brown - Bell: 65.7

 

Obviously we want Manning in this case by a landslide, he and Bell are netting an extra 30 pts over Brown and Kitna.

 

So, hopefully we've noticed that the dropoff from Manning is generally worse than the dropoff from RBs in the Maroney range, which tends to suggest that Manning is the better pick at that point. You just have to be patient in picking your RB2 then, because if you just grab at one as soon as possible, odds are you're getting screwed on value, which WILL kill your team. Smart picking while drafting him, however, can give you a distinct advantage, one that I especially think is important since picks 9-12 in rd 1 are such a gray area. Being able to pull Manning out of that mess can really make things a great deal easier.

[GobbleDog 822]

Drew Brees - the cheaper Peyton Manning

 

[RicemanX 20]

Drew Brees - the cheaper Peyton Manning

 

Marc Bulger, the 99 cents store version of Peyton manning

[HawgWild 0]

I think you got a pretty decent team that can compete.. I am not wild about the WR's (I am not sold on B. Edwards yet) but there is a price to pay for taking Manning that high.. You just hope you get enough points from him to make up the difference..

[famousb 11]

Here we go on a topic I've been considering for a while now - drafting the position where you stand to lose the most ground until your next pick, production-wise. This is essentially the justification being used here - that the RB/WR you could get in rd 1/2 instead of Manning is going to have a higher production difference from the guy you'd draft in the 3rd than the difference between P Manning and a QB you could get at that point. The question is, does it work?

 

You could do a lot nastier math than this, I'm sure, but for now let's keep it relatively simple. I'll roll out some ADPs and do the FFPt math to make the comparison. Manning is the 2.01 pick on average, so we'll roll with picking from the 12 slot, assuming best projected pick out of guys that on average will be remaining - i.e. I disallow anyone with an ADP earlier than the pick. Typically from 12th would be Maroney, Manning, then Jacobs. In case 2, trying for a QB at the end of 3rd rd, we get Maroney, Brown, then Brees. Projection math:

 

Manning - Brees: 45.7

Brown - Jacobs: 6.1

 

If Jacobs makes it to you as your RB2, which he will on average, then you benefit to the tune of ~40 pts by taking Manning. If he does not, what happens? Deuce McAllister is the next best with an ADP available at 3.12, and has 167.4 pts predicted.

 

Brown - McAllister: 46.3

 

At that point it's about break even on whether or not to draft Manning. However, there is more. You can make the decision to draft Manning a better one in that case if you push off your RB2 even longer in order to get 2 WRs at the 3/4 bend. McAllister begins a long string of guys:

 

Deuce McAllister

Marshawn Lynch

Julius Jones

Clinton Portis

Marion Barber

DeAngelo Williams

Warrick Dunn

Carnell "Cadillac" Williams

Brandon Jackson

LaMont Jordan

Ladell Betts

Ahman Green

Tatum Bell

 

They span 167.4 pts predicted to 148.0 pts predicted. A few have higher ADPs, but you can certainly get 1 at the 5/6 bend. For argument's sake let's say it's Tatum Bell w/ his 148 pt projection. If we assume you were going to draft identically the other way except for having Brown in the 2nd instead of Manning (i.e. RB RB WR WR) and taking a QB in 6 instead of that RB2, then the differences are:

 

Manning - Kitna: 95.7

Brown - Bell: 65.7

 

Obviously we want Manning in this case by a landslide, he and Bell are netting an extra 30 pts over Brown and Kitna.

 

So, hopefully we've noticed that the dropoff from Manning is generally worse than the dropoff from RBs in the Maroney range, which tends to suggest that Manning is the better pick at that point. You just have to be patient in picking your RB2 then, because if you just grab at one as soon as possible, odds are you're getting screwed on value, which WILL kill your team. Smart picking while drafting him, however, can give you a distinct advantage, one that I especially think is important since picks 9-12 in rd 1 are such a gray area. Being able to pull Manning out of that mess can really make things a great deal easier.

 

see, the problem w/ just using projected #s though is that it doesn't account for 'risk' factor...

by me waiting for Brees instead of Manning, i'm not risking much because i'm pretty certain Brees will be the starting QB for NO all through the year (unless he gets injured, but you can't account for that). But if i take Manning, than Tinker Bell, well, there's a good possibility Tinker isn't going to be the starting RB in DET...

plus, if you take Manning, you are also almost forced into going RB in the 2nd. If you go RB in the first, you can go RB or WR in the 2nd...

so by going Manning, you don't only lose the chance for a top-level RB, you also lose the chance for a top-level WR...

 

realistically, if you go Manning in the first, you could end up w/:

Manning

Rd2: Portis / TJones / Edge

Rd3: ABoldin / Housh / JWalker

then you have a decision to make in the 4th as to RB2 or WR2.

 

but if you skip on Manning in the first, you could realistically end up w/:

Brees (4th rd pick)

Rd1: Rudi / Henry / Maroney

Rd2: CJ / TO / SSmith for WR, or Portis / TJones / Edge

Rd3: ABoldin / Housh / JWalker if you went RB in rd2, or TJones / Benson / Jacobs if you went WR in rd2.

 

personally, i don't think the 45.7 pt projected dropoff between Manning and Brees is great enough for that change in not only RB1 but also WR1. Over 16 weeks, that translates to <3 pts / week in production. In PPR leagues an RB that recs out of the backfield can put that up in 1 quarter w/o ever gaining an offensive yd.

 

Also to be considered in the discussion, is that you are only comparing your team against ONE other team in the case you don't take Manning... There are 10 other teams in the league that ALSO didn't start w/ Manning that you have to compete with that will also have QBs that score "significantly" less than Peyton.

When drafting a team, you don't try and just game plan against one opponent - you have to see what EVERY team is drafting so you can plan accordingly.

[z00g 0]

What about Manning-WR-RB-RB-RB?

 

I would say RB-Manning-RB-WR would be fairly decent, if you can land him in the 2nd.