Rookies finishing among the top at their position

[DBZFan2K 0]

Keep in mind I'm not really trying to prove anything here. This is just a quick set of research and all I'm doing is sharing my findings.

 

Using pro-football-reference.com as a reference, here are rookies that finished with a high ranking at the skill positions.

 

Top 10 QB

Top 12 RB

Top 20 WR

Top 10 TE

 

2006

 

RB

Maurice Jones-Drew (8)

Joseph Addai (11)

 

WR

Marques Colston (14)

 

2005

 

None

 

2004

 

WR

Michael Clayton (13)

 

2003

 

WR

Anquan Boldin (4)

 

2002

 

RB

Clinton Portis (4)

 

TE

Jeremy Shockey (3)

Randy McMichael (9)

 

2001

 

RB

LaDainian Tomlinson (7)

Dominic Rhodes (11)

(an honorable mention to Anthony Thomas, who ranked 13)

 

2000

 

RB

Mike Anderson (4)

 

1999

 

RB

Edgerrin James (1)

 

WR

Kevin Johnson (17)

 

1998

 

QB

Peyton Manning (9)

 

RB

Fred Taylor (4)

Robert Edwards (8)

 

WR

Randy Moss (1)

 

TE

Cameron Cleeland (2)

 

1997

 

RB

Corey Dillon (8)

(an honorable mention to Warrick Dunn, who ranked 13)

 

 

I'm not sure what to make of this except that I wouldn't be too shocked if this season ended up like 2005 (with no real impact rookies). I'm probably in the minority here but I wasn't impressed with the class of 2007 from a fantasy standpoint. Lynch, Peterson, and Calvin Johnson are among the big names of the rookie crop but none are a sure thing for this season at least. I wasn't really trying to make a point here but I guess if anything is to be gathered it's to temper expectations (which isn't groundbreaking stuff anyway). Plus even with expectations low for this season, it makes sense to look for the sleepers. MJD and A-Train were deep sleepers in their rookie seasons, and Colston, Cleeland, Rhodes, and Mike Anderson weren't on most people's radars when they busted out.

 

If anything, it was nostalgic seeing Cleeland's name there.

[ROCKET 0]

Moss and Edge ended up both being #1. I rode Edge and Stephen Davis to a title in 99 along with Warner. So much for the rookie hype bs in those years. I for one love getting impact rookies when everyone is too gun shy to pull the trigger (Bush last year). Sure you get burned now and then but you do get some absolute steals. I can see Calvin Johnson being a top 15 wr this year and probably being had in the 4th round or beyond.

 

ETA: There seems to be a lot of solid top 10 rb's in that list. I can see Lynch having a shot at it this year based solely on situation. I love AD but you have to think Chester will keep him from the top 10 at least in 07.

[Da Bomb 0]

off the top of my head, i only count 8 of those as being first rounders. half RBs, half not.

[R8RMick 242]

We have a rookie franchise rule in one of my auction keeper leagues. If you draft a guy, and keep him on the roster for the entire season, he is franchised for three years with no penalty. It's a good deal naturally, but they've got to produce SOMETHING to hold that roster slot the first year.

 

In other words, I can afford a Brandon Jackson as maybe my RB3, but a Michael Bush might kill me this season. It's a risk, but rookies go high in this league.

[famousb 11]

sure you can say there are some 'solid' guys in that list... but that list is over 10 YEARS! look at the reverse of the list - the number of rookies that HAVEN'T been solid...

if you've got (just for arguments sake) even 30 decent rookie starters (meaning #1 or 2 at their respective positions) over that period of time, that's probably less than 10% of the total number of rookies that people drafted in FF over the same time period....

 

last year alone, you had MJD, Addai, and Colston on this list, and you could even add in Reggie Bush as a solid starter and Maroney

well, 2 out of those 5 guys weren't even drafted in most FF formats (or at least Colston was only drafted cause leagues had him listed as a TE and everyone knew he played WR, so he was a cheater pick early in the season) - and they were the ones that performed the highest according to that scoring system (whatever it was).

 

So you've really only got 3 guys there that were drafted in most FF formats and wound up as decent starters week-in and week-out. and even though those three finished w/ good overall numbers, they really didn't put up solid numbers week-in and week-out. Bush didn't score an offensive TD until what week? Maroney was splitting carries and losing gl opps to Dillon, plus he got banged up near the end of the year...

 

Take a look at the other guys who were also drafted on alot of FF teams...

i wouldn't have been happy having to start Norwood or DWil on a regular basis. Heck, right now i can't even remember the names of any rookie WRs from last year - that's how enamored i was w/ those guys... TEs, people were blowing their loads to get VD (puns intended), and what did they get... nada.

 

goes back to the basic fundamentals of my disdain for the overhype of young guys... sure you can find a few that perform well, but by the time the season starts, they'll be so overhyped that they just aren't worth the price you pay for them in non-dynasty formats. And even if their numbers look good at the end of the season, their overall performance on a weekly basis usually doesn't measure up.

 

We have a rookie franchise rule in one of my auction keeper leagues. If you draft a guy, and keep him on the roster for the entire season, he is franchised for three years with no penalty. It's a good deal naturally, but they've got to produce SOMETHING to hold that roster slot the first year.

 

In other words, I can afford a Brandon Jackson as maybe my RB3, but a Michael Bush might kill me this season. It's a risk, but rookies go high in this league.

is that keep him on the roster, or START him all season?

if it's just on the roster, how deep are your benches... cause alot of leagues have so many dang bench spots it's easy to hide people on them all year.

[Steel City Blues 0]

I rarely draft rookies in redraft leagues. The big difference this season is OPPORTUNITY. Stephen Jackson for example probably would have been a top RB if he landed in a starting role as a rookie.

 

 

This season, we have several rookies in good situations to make an impact.

 

WR Calvin Johnson in pass happy Detroit. Roy will take the pressure off & give Calvin a chance to make a huge impact.

 

Lynch should start & probably isn't stuck in a RBBC role which makes him even more valuable.

 

AD is in a beautiful situation in Minny. Viking RB tend to put up better than expected numbers.

 

Meachum (good shot at becoming a starter) is in FF WR heaven. Your team must be STACKED to bench a starting WR in New Orleans.

 

Jackson - (if he becomes the starter) GB backs gets plenty of carries & their patented screen play passes add more value.

 

The road is looking better for Bush too. Rhodes is out for 4 games. Lamont Jordan has some issues.

 

 

I would wager at least three rookies will become reliable fantasy starters this season.

[famousb 11]

I rarely draft rookies in redraft leagues. The big difference this season is OPPORTUNITY. Stephen Jackson for example probably would have been a top RB if he landed in a starting role as a rookie.

This season, we have several rookies in good situations to make an impact.

 

WR Calvin Johnson in pass happy Detroit. Roy will take the pressure off & give Calvin a chance to make a huge impact.

 

Lynch should start & probably isn't stuck in a RBBC role which makes him even more valuable.

 

AD is in a beautiful situation in Minny. Viking RB tend to put up better than expected numbers.

 

Meachum (good shot at becoming a starter) is in FF WR heaven. Your team must be STACKED to bench a starting WR in New Orleans.

 

Jackson - (if he becomes the starter) GB backs gets plenty of carries & their patented screen play passes add more value.

 

The road is looking better for Bush too. Rhodes is out for 4 games. Lamont Jordan has some issues.

I would wager at least three rookies will become reliable fantasy starters this season.

i'm going to have to disagree w/ your evaluations of most of those rooks...

 

Calvin, i'll agree w/ you here...

 

Lynch, i don't think he's as good of a back as Willis, and he was crushed in that horrible offense. Plus, i don't see him being the week1 starter, and i'd really be surprised to see it not still be RBBC in wk8. If ATrain is getting at least 10-15 carries a game at the beginning of the season, he's going to have to really suxor for him not to be getting the same amount of carries at the end of the season... i can't think of any RBBC at the beginning of the year that wasn't still in place at the end of the year unless one of the committee members got hurt.

 

AD being in a great situation? you do realize that CTaylor put up almost 1500 total yds last season, don't you? I highly doubt he gets completely benched for any rookie RB. I see it could be more like the Benson/TJones situation in CHI when Benson was drafted high and still rode the pine... At best, he's going to be entrenched in RBBC on an offense that looked pretty bad last year.

 

Meachum, i don't see how he beats out Henderson after the way he stepped in last year when asked to. And i even think Copper did a solid job when called upon. At best i see Meachum as the #3 WR, which would probably be at least the 5th option in the passing game w/ Bush coming out of the backfield and them bringing in a good pass-catching TE in Eric Johnson.

 

Jackson in GB, well, they do pad some RB stats w/ the screen. But i see this as another solid RBBC all season long. Again not a whole lot of teams really completely on a rookie RB for an entire season - especially when they have an incumbent already on their roster.

 

MBush, well, as i said in other threads, i'm avoiding OAK RBs and WRs... but Rhodes missing 4 games isn't really going to give MBush all that much more opportunity - especially when those first 4 games are the first of his rookie year and he hasn't yet fully recovered from a leg injury that has prevented him from playing football for almost an entire calendar year now.

 

i'm certain there's a chance that some of these guys could pan out to be viable FF starters, but i wouldn't be that three of them will be...

[bigpoly60 0]

 

I would wager at least three rookies will become reliable fantasy starters this season.

 

Halt..... we have a substance abuse violation. You need to be tested.

 

NO WAY 3 of the 4 guys you listed will be a #1 or #2 starter in a 12 team league at any position on a competetive team in a redraft format.

[Steel City Blues 0]

Halt..... we have a substance abuse violation. You need to be tested.

 

NO WAY 3 of the 4 guys you listed will be a #1 or #2 starter in a 12 team league at any position on a competetive team in a redraft format.

 

 

Opinions are like axxholes. Everyone has one and they all stink.

 

The opportunities for the best rooks is better this season than we have seen in a long time. Three becoming weekly starters on a fantasy roster seems likely to me.

 

 

If you want to put it to numbers, RB has to finish top 24 in points at that position. WR top 36. QB top 12...

 

 

 

Johnson, Adrian Peterson, Lynch, Meachum, Jackson, Moss are the 6 players I listed. These were the best off the top of my head, but there are others I haven't mentioned.

[Ras66not99 0]

I rarely draft rookies in redraft leagues. The big difference this season is OPPORTUNITY. Stephen Jackson for example probably would have been a top RB if he landed in a starting role as a rookie.

By far the best thing said in this thread.... though I don't agree about all the players you listed, however Marshawn Lynch is going to be given the keys to the Buffalo running game and have every chance to shine in the fantasy world despite playing for a so so team and having a pretty tough run schedule.... unless he really struggles on his blocking assignments look for this cat to no doubt make an impact this season...

 

$.02

[Foghorn Leghorn 0]

Opinions are like axxholes. Everyone has one and they all stink.

 

The opportunities for the best rooks is better this season than we have seen in a long time. Three becoming weekly starters on a fantasy roster seems likely to me.

If you want to put it to numbers, RB has to finish top 24 in points at that position. WR top 36. QB top 12...

Johnson, Adrian Peterson, Lynch, Meachum, Jackson, Moss are the 6 players I listed. These were the best off the top of my head, but there are others I haven't mentioned.

 

I think the difference is that you wagered at least three would become reliable fantasy starters. For example, many people (myself included) had Santana Moss as a fantasy starter (as a #2 WR). I don't think reliable would be an adjective I would use to describe his play last year. From the rookies you listed, I can see the same hot/cold play from some of them in 2007, but I'm not sure I can pick three that will be reliable. As was pointed out Peterson still has Chester Taylor around and, given how productive he was last year, I'm finding it difficult to think that the Vikings will just exclude him from their game plan. Also, a great point has been made in the past about the difficulties rookie RBs have in picking up blitzes (applicable to both Peterson and Lynch), which might mean more RBBC time. And Calvin Johnson, in that Detroit offence, to me falls into that hot/cold category as well. Until I see that Detroit's offensive line has improved (a must in a Mike Martz system that hinges on longer developing pass routes), I'm going to hold off on drinking that Kool-Aid.

 

In short, while I can see where three could be fantasy starters, I don't see where three will be reliable fantasy starters.

[ROCKET 0]

I think the difference is that you wagered at least three would become reliable fantasy starters. For example, many people (myself included) had Santana Moss as a fantasy starter (as a #2 WR). I don't think reliable would be an adjective I would use to describe his play last year. From the rookies you listed, I can see the same hot/cold play from some of them in 2007, but I'm not sure I can pick three that will be reliable. As was pointed out Peterson still has Chester Taylor around and, given how productive he was last year, I'm finding it difficult to think that the Vikings will just exclude him from their game plan. Also, a great point has been made in the past about the difficulties rookie RBs have in picking up blitzes (applicable to both Peterson and Lynch), which might mean more RBBC time. And Calvin Johnson, in that Detroit offence, to me falls into that hot/cold category as well. Until I see that Detroit's offensive line has improved (a must in a Mike Martz system that hinges on longer developing pass routes), I'm going to hold off on drinking that Kool-Aid.

 

In short, while I can see where three could be fantasy starters, I don't see where three will be reliable fantasy starters.

 

 

I had Chad Johnson last year and he killed me a lot of weeks, especially early on. Guess he's not reliable either. I'll be willing to bet three rookies will be reliable starters. If a rb is top 24, a wr top 36 and a qb top 12 then they are reliable starters regardless of consistency. So with your arguement CJ isn't a reliable starter either?

[RicemanX 20]

good list, thanks.

It shows me to not take chances on the rooks in redrafts.

[RamslovaMartzhata 3]

I want to get out there that Bush was top 10 last year in PPR's... so scoring may change this a bit.

 

 

Anyhow, I don't think this rookie class will have much fantasy power, but I do like Lynch (in my ppr league) if the price is right. Where is Calvin Johnson going in mock redrafts?

[RicemanX 20]

I want to get out there that Bush was top 10 last year in PPR's... so scoring may change this a bit.

Anyhow, I don't think this rookie class will have much fantasy power, but I do like Lynch (in my ppr league) if the price is right. Where is Calvin Johnson going in mock redrafts?

early 7th, after guys like DJax, Braylon, Donte, and before guys like Cotchery and Galloway

[Steel City Blues 0]

early 7th, after guys like DJax, Braylon, Donte, and before guys like Cotchery and Galloway

 

 

That is the problem with all the hype over "stud" rookies. I won't have Johnson on my roster because Cotchery is a much better pick.

 

I will wait until late rounds and shoot for a flier WR like Meachum.

 

Lynch and AD could wind up on my roster as a #3 or #2 if the draft drops gems at other positions.

[t.j 35]

One thing about rookies, though, a lot of times they do live up to the hype late in the season, including the FF playoffs. Quite a few rookies take a few weeks or even months to crack the starting lineup, but once they do their production can be good. Rookies often crack the starting lineup late in the season for two major reasons: 1. they finally know the offense/defense well enough to do their job. 2. Injury/performance problem for the veteran starter ahead of them.

 

Here's a list of rookies that were among the top players in their position for the final 7 weeks of the 2006 season (after every team had their byes).

 

QB - Vince Young, #4 (176 pypg, 54 ruypg, 11 off TD, 5 INT)

RB - Maurice Jones-Drew, #3 (87 ruypg, 26 reypg, 9 TD)

RB - Reggie Bush, #6 (44 ruypg, 56 reypg, 7 TD)

(also JAddai close at #16)

WR - Santonio Holmes, #20 (63 reypg, 2 TD)

TE - Tony Scheffler, #3 (31 reypg, 4 TD)

(also VDavis close at #12)

 

Also, I don't know if this is any kind of a trend, but it's worth noting that the above list includes the first QB taken in last year's NFL draft, the first RB taken, and the first WR taken, with the 1st TE taken making the honorable mention list!

 

I guess it depends on what your expectations are. If you're counting on rookies to carry you through the season and get you into the playoffs, you might want to re-think your strategy. But if you can get your key veteran pieces and throw in some promising rookies, you may have the recipie for a champion.

[DBZFan2K 0]

One thing about rookies, though, a lot of times they do live up to the hype late in the season, including the FF playoffs. Quite a few rookies take a few weeks or even months to crack the starting lineup, but once they do their production can be good. Rookies often crack the starting lineup late in the season for two major reasons: 1. they finally know the offense/defense well enough to do their job. 2. Injury/performance problem for the veteran starter ahead of them.

 

Here's a list of rookies that were among the top players in their position for the final 7 weeks of the 2006 season (after every team had their byes).

 

QB - Vince Young, #4 (176 pypg, 54 ruypg, 11 off TD, 5 INT)

RB - Maurice Jones-Drew, #3 (87 ruypg, 26 reypg, 9 TD)

RB - Reggie Bush, #6 (44 ruypg, 56 reypg, 7 TD)

(also JAddai close at #16)

WR - Santonio Holmes, #20 (63 reypg, 2 TD)

TE - Tony Scheffler, #3 (31 reypg, 4 TD)

(also VDavis close at #12)

 

Also, I don't know if this is any kind of a trend, but it's worth noting that the above list includes the first QB taken in last year's NFL draft, the first RB taken, and the first WR taken, with the 1st TE taken making the honorable mention list!

 

I guess it depends on what your expectations are. If you're counting on rookies to carry you through the season and get you into the playoffs, you might want to re-think your strategy. But if you can get your key veteran pieces and throw in some promising rookies, you may have the recipie for a champion.

 

Excellent point. Often with rookies that make a fantasy impact it happens in the second half of the season. It doesn't hurt to take a flier on a rookie as long as your expectations are tempered. It's usually better than using a backup spot on a declining veteran.

[GhostofMeanMachine99 1]

By far the best thing said in this thread.... though I don't agree about all the players you listed, however Marshawn Lynch is going to be given the keys to the Buffalo running game and have every chance to shine in the fantasy world despite playing for a so so team and having a pretty tough run schedule.... unless he really struggles on his blocking assignments look for this cat to no doubt make an impact this season...

 

$.02

 

Agreed. The trend shows that alot of rookies don't make huge fantasy impact, and the ones that do (on the running back side) are given the keys to the car.

[cavern 70]

That is the problem with all the hype over "stud" rookies. I won't have Johnson on my roster because Cotchery is a much better pick.

 

I will wait until late rounds and shoot for a flier WR like Meachum.

 

Lynch and AD could wind up on my roster as a #3 or #2 if the draft drops gems at other positions.

 

funny, but that's exactly what happened with me... i have lt2, CJ, TO, Gates.... and then i need lightning to strike for my rb2 or rb3 to pan out... APeterson, MBIII,Lendale, morency/jackson, and k jones are the spaghetti i threw against the wall after getting those wr's and gates

[Foghorn Leghorn 0]

I had Chad Johnson last year and he killed me a lot of weeks, especially early on. Guess he's not reliable either. I'll be willing to bet three rookies will be reliable starters. If a rb is top 24, a wr top 36 and a qb top 12 then they are reliable starters regardless of consistency. So with your arguement CJ isn't a reliable starter either?

 

I think you're taking my argument to the extreme. Every player (especially WRs) will have some bad games statistically - expecting 100 yards and a TD every week is just silly. But guys like Chad Johnson make up for their odd bad game with many stellar ones. So my question is: if you're going to use Chad Johnson as an counter example, are you trying to argue that there are at least three rookies that will end up with numbers similar to Chad Johnson (or the RB equivalent) at the end of the season?

 

I never said that there couldn't be three starters out of that group. But that's why I used the Santana Moss example - a borderline starter.

[famousb 11]

I think you're taking my argument to the extreme. Every player (especially WRs) will have some bad games statistically - expecting 100 yards and a TD every week is just silly. But guys like Chad Johnson make up for their odd bad game with many stellar ones. So my question is: if you're going to use Chad Johnson as an counter example, are you trying to argue that there are at least three rookies that will end up with numbers similar to Chad Johnson (or the RB equivalent) at the end of the season?

 

I never said that there couldn't be three starters out of that group. But that's why I used the Santana Moss example - a borderline starter.

 

i agree to an extent... you can't just look at a guy's end of the year stats & ranking, and say he was a solid #2 just cause he finished in the top24... especially at WR.

A perfect example of this is Mark Clayton.

depending on scoring format, he finished anywhere from 18th to 28th.

but w/ 9 wks at 45 yds or less (2 gms in the teens, 3 in the 20s), and then having 4 games of 100+ yds - and all 5 of his TDs coming in those 4 gms, he wasn't a guy you would have wanted in your lineup on a week-to-week basis as a #2 WR. Sure he was awesome those 4 weeks and he finished right at the bottom end of the #2 WR tier, but he sure as sh!t wasn't a good consistent starter. There were guys that finished below him that would have provided a much more consistent & quality performance on a week to week basis.

[DankNuggs 305]

Peterson and CJ are two of the better prospects coming out of college. CJ is an absolute freak, and Peterson as well if he can stay healthy.

 

If Chester Taylor can put up #'s in that offense, i think AP can put up better if given the chance. CJ the same

 

 

 

Now I agree they may not get the looks to have that unreal seaon with Chester and Roy Williams around..

 

 

Bottom line, its a crapshoot, and just like you have pointed out, more often than not rookies are overhyped and overdrafted.

[z00g 0]

So basically, it's a fair risk to take guys like CJ and AP early. I've noticed Calvin taken in the 5th quite a few times, and some people seem really high on him, pointing to Randy Moss's rookie season. FFtoday has incredibly low projections for Calvin though.

 

I guess it depends on what your expectations are. If you're counting on rookies to carry you through the season and get you into the playoffs, you might want to re-think your strategy. But if you can get your key veteran pieces and throw in some promising rookies, you may have the recipie for a champion.

 

I agree, and expectations are mostly defined by draft position...so I think it's not a bad idea to take some rookies after the 12th round or so, even though they are more low profile. In an August mock last year, MJD fell to me in the 13th round. It seems like the rookies we're centered on this year are the high-profile ones - Calvin, AP, Lynch especially.

 

But what about guys like, say, Chris Henry? Greg Olsen? Ahmad Bradshaw? Probably not at the QB position, but I think Henry might be worth the risk in late rounds, with better upside than LenDale White or Chris Brown.

[Foghorn Leghorn 0]

i agree to an extent... you can't just look at a guy's end of the year stats & ranking, and say he was a solid #2 just cause he finished in the top24... especially at WR.

A perfect example of this is Mark Clayton.

depending on scoring format, he finished anywhere from 18th to 28th.

but w/ 9 wks at 45 yds or less (2 gms in the teens, 3 in the 20s), and then having 4 games of 100+ yds - and all 5 of his TDs coming in those 4 gms, he wasn't a guy you would have wanted in your lineup on a week-to-week basis as a #2 WR. Sure he was awesome those 4 weeks and he finished right at the bottom end of the #2 WR tier, but he sure as sh!t wasn't a good consistent starter. There were guys that finished below him that would have provided a much more consistent & quality performance on a week to week basis.

 

 

This is a perfect example of what I was trying to describe. Clayton was probably a #2 WR on many teams, but definitely not a reliable starter. While it may be possible that at least three from the list wind up as fantasy starters for some people, those people will likely get:

 

-the same consistency that Moss and Clayton showed last year

-more ulcers because of it

[ROCKET 0]

 

This is a perfect example of what I was trying to describe. Clayton was probably a #2 WR on many teams, but definitely not a reliable starter. While it may be possible that at least three from the list wind up as fantasy starters for some people, those people will likely get:

 

-the same consistency that Moss and Clayton showed last year

-more ulcers because of it

 

 

Then I guess you better steer clear of guys like Chad Johnson. I looked back at last years wr stats for our league and most of the #2 and #3 wr's had at least 4-5 games where they layed an egg. CJ was one of the few #1 wr's in that did as well. And the same could be said for the majority of #2/#3 rb's but they are more consistent as a whole. I don't see a lot of consistency in the 2nd/3rd tiers barring a few exceptions.

 

I still stand by the basic arguement that you can get excellent value and typical consistency from rookies who will be drafted way beyong where a veteran who has similar production goes. Will there be a ton of busts? Yes, but leagues can also be won by pulling out those 1 or 2 gems that come out of most rookie crops every year.

[famousb 11]

Then I guess you better steer clear of guys like Chad Johnson. I looked back at last years wr stats for our league and most of the #2 and #3 wr's had at least 4-5 games where they layed an egg. CJ was one of the few #1 wr's in that did as well. And the same could be said for the majority of #2/#3 rb's but they are more consistent as a whole. I don't see a lot of consistency in the 2nd/3rd tiers barring a few exceptions.

 

I still stand by the basic arguement that you can get excellent value and typical consistency from rookies who will be drafted way beyong where a veteran who has similar production goes. Will there be a ton of busts? Yes, but leagues can also be won by pulling out those 1 or 2 gems that come out of most rookie crops every year.

CJ and others may have had 4-5 'bad' games... Mark Clayton had exactly 4 good games, and 9 bad games...

huge disparity in the comparison you are reaching for to try to argue your point... that's like someone pulling out the one or two bad games LT had a year or two ago to argue that all RBs are inconsistent...

 

obviously ever WR will have up games and down games... you may feel fine starting a guy that ends the year ranked as #20, i for one don't if he only has 4 good games. i'd rather start the 21st ranked WR (a guy like Ike Bruce) who posted a good average every week...

[ROCKET 0]

CJ and others may have had 4-5 'bad' games... Mark Clayton had exactly 4 good games, and 9 bad games...

huge disparity in the comparison you are reaching for to try to argue your point... that's like someone pulling out the one or two bad games LT had a year or two ago to argue that all RBs are inconsistent...

 

obviously ever WR will have up games and down games... you may feel fine starting a guy that ends the year ranked as #20, i for one don't if he only has 4 good games. i'd rather start the 21st ranked WR (a guy like Ike Bruce) who posted a good average every week...

 

 

Mark Clayton is one player, big deal. This whole arguement is ridiculous. I'd rather be taking guys that finish in the top 36 overall that are inconsistent than guys who finish outside the top 36. You can cherry pick a few #3 wr's who are a little more consistent but that doesn't change the fact that anyone in the top 36 is a reliable #3 wr.

[Eyedea 0]

exceellent analysis rico

[DBZFan2K 0]

exceellent analysis rico

 

Is that you, Joe?

[bigpoly60 0]

I had Chad Johnson last year and he killed me a lot of weeks, especially early on. Guess he's not reliable either. I'll be willing to bet three rookies will be reliable starters. If a rb is top 24, a wr top 36 and a qb top 12 then they are reliable starters regardless of consistency. So with your arguement CJ isn't a reliable starter either?

 

 

Another infraction...... There's a difference in RELIABLE and CONSISTENT. CJ may have been up and down, but at season's end, he's a top 10 WR.

 

Keep me in mind...... Friendly wager.

 

I say no rookie RB will finish in the top 20, no WR in the top 24, and no QB in the top 12.

 

Here's why I chose those numbers. I don't know what you mean by reliable, but what I mean is someone I can count on to produce in my line up and give me a chance to win.

 

If CJ is your #2 WR, there is....... wait for it...... NO WAY you win your league. At your #3, you're probably not going to be overy happy. If he was a guy you switched in and out with another #3, that's OK.

 

SO HERE'S WHAT I AM SAYING.

 

If you have one of these rookies on your team, and they start for you EVERY WEEK, you will not win your league.

[famousb 11]

Another infraction...... There's a difference in RELIABLE and CONSISTENT. CJ may have been up and

 

If CJ is your #2 WR, there is....... wait for it...... NO WAY you win your league. At your #3, you're probably not going to be overy happy. If he was a guy you switched in and out with another #3, that's OK.

 

just let me clarify, the first time you say CJ, you mean Chad Johnson,

the second time you use CJ, you may Calvin Johnson, correct???

 

cause i think if Chad J was my #2 WR, i would probably have a REALLY good chance of winning my league...

 

 

[t.j 35]

cause i think if Chad J was my #2 WR, i would probably have a REALLY good chance of winning my league...

 

I doubt that. If Chad Johnson is your #2 WR then you probably invested way too much in WR and hurt yourself at RB and maybe QB as well.

[famousb 11]

I doubt that. If Chad Johnson is your #2 WR then you probably invested way too much in WR and hurt yourself at RB and maybe QB as well.

 

i don't know about that...

theoretically, in a 12-teamer, snake, redraft league, the only way you're getting CJ as your #2 is if you pick EARLY in the 1st, and grab CJ early in the 3rd (very unlikely you'd get him there, but for argument sake that's where it'd have to be...)

 

So early 1st, i'll deem as 1 or 2 (maybe 3, but CJ at 3.3 is just ridiculous)

So you're basically looking at (just going by antsports ADP):

 

RB1, rd1: LT/SJax

WR1, rd2: TO/Harrison/Wayne/SSmith (what other WR would you draft ahead of CJ?)

WR2, rd3: CJ

RB2, rd4: Ahman/JLew (maybe even Deuce?)

QB, rd5: Marc Bulger

 

then it's a matter of format but other places to get RB3:

rd6: CTaylor/TBell

rd7: Dunn/Norwood/KJ/Lamont/FTaylor

 

 

i think i could make a pretty decent run in almost ANY league w/ that lineup...

[ROCKET 0]

Another infraction...... There's a difference in RELIABLE and CONSISTENT. CJ may have been up and down, but at season's end, he's a top 10 WR.

 

Keep me in mind...... Friendly wager.

 

I say no rookie RB will finish in the top 20, no WR in the top 24, and no QB in the top 12.

 

Here's why I chose those numbers. I don't know what you mean by reliable, but what I mean is someone I can count on to produce in my line up and give me a chance to win.

 

If CJ is your #2 WR, there is....... wait for it...... NO WAY you win your league. At your #3, you're probably not going to be overy happy. If he was a guy you switched in and out with another #3, that's OK.

 

SO HERE'S WHAT I AM SAYING.

 

If you have one of these rookies on your team, and they start for you EVERY WEEK, you will not win your league.

 

Yeah, it would have sucked to be starting Colston every weeek he was healthy last year as your #3 wr. And MJD, sucks to have been starting him down the stretch as your #2 rb. Rookies almost always have big impacts every year, this year will be no different. When you draft rookies they are at best slotted to be a rb2 or wr3 and many times they surprise to the upside. No one said to draft a rookie as your wr2 or rb1. Rookie qb's are worthless.

 

And I stick by my point that any top 36 wr is a reliable wr3 in a 12 teamer. I could easily win my league by starting one every week and having a strong overall team. If you have 3 top 20 wr's then you have an advantage but it's not going to guarantee anything if your rb2, qb, etc. sucks. In HTH timing and luck is everything, if your wr's lay an egg in the playoffs you're done regardless if they had 14 great weeks going in. In a total points league a top 36 wr is more than reliable for a 12 teamer.