Non-snaking draft order

[Jedi Sensei 17]

Anybody know how I can arrange a non-snaking draft? W/O resorting to auction drafts or re-drawing draft order each round?

 

 

A number of years ago a 'math-nerd' buddy of mine came up with a weighted draft for our 14-team league, and everyone was happy, felt they had equal shot at talent. I'm looking for a 10 team equivalent to pitch to my league of bitchers.

[fantasy master 0]

Change to a snake draft it's the only way to go.

[KSB2424 3,148]

Anybody know how I can arrange a non-snaking draft? W/O resorting to auction drafts or re-drawing draft order each round?

A number of years ago a 'math-nerd' buddy of mine came up with a weighted draft for our 14-team league, and everyone was happy, felt they had equal shot at talent. I'm looking for a 10 team equivalent to pitch to my league of bitchers.

What is wrong with a snake draft? If you calculate the weighted average draft value for each pick (1-14) it equals out.

[johndipaolo 0]

I agree...there is a reason that almost every league out there uses the snake draft...it works.

[Mangatang 0]

What is wrong with a snake draft? If you calculate the weighted average draft value for each pick (1-14) it equals out.

 

Because a snake draft isn't as fair as other options. Here's the total VBD (Value Based Drafting because it allows you to compare different positions to each other) points for each draft position after 8 rounds of drafting, using conserative player projections and my league's scoring rules.

 

1. 394

2. 375

3. 345

4. 344

5. 328

6. 313

7. 296

8. 294

9. 296

10. 297

11. 295

12. 291

 

Having the #1 pick and then being able to pick two players in a row at 24/25 is too much for the 12th guy to overcome.

 

If you use the "Backfill" method, which is first round draft 1-12, then every round after that draft 12-1, you get a more even talent distribution among the teams. The 12th guy gets picks 12 and 13 as usual, but then in the third round he gets the first pick (instead of the guy with LT). It works out much better.

 

1. 361

2. 344

3. 317

4. 325

5. 318

6. 309

7. 301

8. 304

9. 315

10. 325

11. 326

12. 325

 

As you can see the differential in the snake method is 103 points, where the backfill method is only 60 points. It's still weighted in favor of the early drafters, but not near as much as the snake method.

 

Of course, auction is the only completly fair way to draft, but the backfill method is better than traditional snake and it's easy to remember the order (unlike some of these methods that switch the order every round).

[Bert 1,128]

Auction. Thread over.

[KSB2424 3,148]

Because a snake draft isn't as fair as other options. Here's the total VBD (Value Based Drafting because it allows you to compare different positions to each other) points for each draft position after 8 rounds of drafting, using conserative player projections and my league's scoring rules.

 

1. 394

2. 375

3. 345

4. 344

5. 328

6. 313

7. 296

8. 294

9. 296

10. 297

11. 295

12. 291

 

Having the #1 pick and then being able to pick two players in a row at 24/25 is too much for the 12th guy to overcome.

 

If you use the "Backfill" method, which is first round draft 1-12, then every round after that draft 12-1, you get a more even talent distribution among the teams. The 12th guy gets picks 12 and 13 as usual, but then in the third round he gets the first pick (instead of the guy with LT). It works out much better.

 

1. 361

2. 344

3. 317

4. 325

5. 318

6. 309

7. 301

8. 304

9. 315

10. 325

11. 326

12. 325

 

As you can see the differential in the snake method is 103 points, where the backfill method is only 60 points. It's still weighted in favor of the early drafters, but not near as much as the snake method.

 

Of course, auction is the only completly fair way to draft, but the backfill method is better than traditional snake and it's easy to remember the order (unlike some of these methods that switch the order every round).

 

X

 

Having the 1rst and 28th draft picks is equal to having the 7th and 22th draft picks is equal to having the 14th and 15th draft picks.

 

VBD relies on projections. Which may or may NOT be true. Therefore you cannot use it to determine the fairness or validity of a snake draft.

 

HTH.

[Jokers 0]

Having the #1 pick and then being able to pick two players in a row at 24/25 is too much for the 12th guy to overcome.

 

I picked 12th last year in my main league, had the best record and highest scoring team (lost in the week 16 finals though), and in another league where I picked 8th I took 2nd, but, yes you guessed it, the guy who picked 12th took 1st.

 

In another league where I picked 2nd? My team started floundering half way through the season and never recovered. I've done bad and good from all spots, but never had any complaints about the snake method.

[Mangatang 0]

I never said that it was impossible to win from the later draft spots. I just said you are at a disadvantage. Of course anyone who can pick talent better or gets lucky by picking the correct sleepers can win. But, the person from the #1 spot doesn't have to pick any sleepers or have any fantasy football saavy. They can draft LT and then just use any magazine's rankings and still field a playoff calibur team.

 

Your assumption that 1 & 24 are equal to 12 & 13 is only valid if the incremental value between players is equal throughout the top 24, but it's not. There is a much bigger differnce (steeper slope) at the top of the player lists. Also, the top players are also more predictable. You know LT and S Jax are going to be top players. You don't know so surely that Lawrence Maroney will be a top 12 player.

 

Again, the only TRUE way to make a completely fair draft, is to hold an auction. Then the true value of LT will weigh itself out by reducing the amount of remaining talent that team can take, and that will be a lot less than the #24 and #25 player.

 

Instead of just saying that the snake method is the BEST way just because it's always been used, why not actually plug in your own numbers into a spreadsheet, do your own analysis, and compare the numbers for your self. After you do that, and you can honestly say that the backfill method doesn't even the playing field out better than the snake, then you can come here and post that I'm wrong.

[Ez 0]

Our league has used the following method for years and everyone likes it:

 

Whichever team drafts last in the previous round, drafts first in the next round.

 

So each team gets back - to - back picks at some point and every team gets a pick every 11 picks so you are not left sitting helplessly as a run gets going.

 

Example ( Team # ):

 

Round 1 - 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10

 

Round 2 - 10,1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9

 

Round 3 - 9,10,1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8

 

Round 4 - 8,9,10,1,2,3,4,5,6,7

 

Round 5 - 7,8,9,10,1,2,3,4,5,6

 

etc.

[Guest JahRasta311]

Our league has used the following method for years and everyone likes it:

 

Whichever team drafts last in the previous round, drafts first in the next round.

 

So each team gets back - to - back picks at some point and every team gets a pick every 11 picks so you are not left sitting helplessly as a run gets going.

 

Example ( Team # ):

 

Round 1 - 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10

 

Round 2 - 10,1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9

 

Round 3 - 9,10,1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8

 

Round 4 - 8,9,10,1,2,3,4,5,6,7

 

Round 5 - 7,8,9,10,1,2,3,4,5,6

 

etc.

No offense, but this order just seems retarded to me. Not only does the 1st team get the best player (LT in this case) But they get the 2nd pick in the 2nd round while the 10th team doesn't get another pick til 9? I would kill myself the minute I got pick 10, that's the worst handicap ever.

[beercat 5]

No offense, but this order just seems retarded to me. Not only does the 1st team get the best player (LT in this case) But they get the 2nd pick in the 2nd round while the 10th team doesn't get another pick til 9? I would kill myself the minute I got pick 10, that's the worst handicap ever.

 

Agreed

[KSB2424 3,148]

I never said that it was impossible to win from the later draft spots. I just said you are at a disadvantage. Of course anyone who can pick talent better or gets lucky by picking the correct sleepers can win. But, the person from the #1 spot doesn't have to pick any sleepers or have any fantasy football saavy. They can draft LT and then just use any magazine's rankings and still field a playoff calibur team.

 

Your assumption that 1 & 24 are equal to 12 & 13 is only valid if the incremental value between players is equal throughout the top 24, but it's not. There is a much bigger differnce (steeper slope) at the top of the player lists. Also, the top players are also more predictable. You know LT and S Jax are going to be top players. You don't know so surely that Lawrence Maroney will be a top 12 player.

 

Again, the only TRUE way to make a completely fair draft, is to hold an auction. Then the true value of LT will weigh itself out by reducing the amount of remaining talent that team can take, and that will be a lot less than the #24 and #25 player.

 

Instead of just saying that the snake method is the BEST way just because it's always been used, why not actually plug in your own numbers into a spreadsheet, do your own analysis, and compare the numbers for your self. After you do that, and you can honestly say that the backfill method doesn't even the playing field out better than the snake, then you can come here and post that I'm wrong.

Plug what numbers in? Your projections.....my projections.....fftoday's projections.

You are assuming that whatever projections you are plugging in to your VBD are 100% accurate. That in and of itself is a fallacy.

 

What if my projections that I plug in have LT2 has having a down year due any number of factors (Turner getting more PT, change in coaching ect.) This would reduce the variance between him and every other RB. Maybe this reduction dictates that the 8th pick position is the best VBD pick based on MY PROJECTIONS.

 

Each team in a league may and should have different projections for players. You cannot just plug in what YOU think will happen and redo the format of a completly fair draft order to fit your crystal ball predictions.

 

[ironhut 0]

Auction. Thread over.

 

yep, keeper auction format with keepers and salary cap is the only way to go...it helps keep league intact and weeds out most of the casual players

[Mangatang 0]

Plug what numbers in? Your projections.....my projections.....fftoday's projections.

You are assuming that whatever projections you are plugging in to your VBD are 100% accurate. That in and of itself is a fallacy.

 

What if my projections that I plug in have LT2 has having a down year due any number of factors (Turner getting more PT, change in coaching ect.) This would reduce the variance between him and every other RB. Maybe this reduction dictates that the 8th pick position is the best VBD pick based on MY PROJECTIONS.

 

Each team in a league may and should have different projections for players. You cannot just plug in what YOU think will happen and redo the format of a completly fair draft order to fit your crystal ball predictions.

 

 

Of course no projections are 100% correct (or even close to that), but what else are you going to base your picks off of? If you just rank your players, that's just another form of estimating stat projections, you just don't quantify it. Do you just arbitrarily predict that Frank Gore will be better than Willie Parker? No, you estimate their stats as best you can, and go from there. Anyway, I stated in my previous post, that the top players are not just predicted to have better stats, but also they're more reliable. There is extra value in having confidence in your picks.

 

You've got to admit that if you plot the player predicted stats, the slope of the points would be much steeper at the beginning then level off as you get deeper into the list. I know there's no way to predict exactly what the player's stats will be, but the predictions are ALL you can go on.

 

The original poster asked if anyone knew of a different drafting format than the regular snake that might be more fair. I responded with what I thought was a good option for him. Draft 1-12 for the first round, then draft 12-1 for every round after that. Instead of just dismissing my recommendation because "it's always been done" the old way, why not try going through this draft method by picking players that would go to each team (your own mock mock draft). Then compare the talent of the teams in the snake format versus the teams in the backfill format. See if you think the teams are more evenly distributed. Just give it a try!

 

Look, I know I will never change the minds of everyone and make the backfill method the norm, but I'm not trying to do that. I'm just trying to answer the original poster's question. Our league alternates between draft and auction every year. Half the league hates the draft because of the inherent unfairness of the draft order. The other half likes the ease and quickness of the draft. We use a normal snake format, and I haven't tried to change them, well, because it's too much work. The snake draft works, it's just not the absolute best format.

[KSB2424 3,148]

Instead of just dismissing my recommendation because "it's always been done" the old way, why not try going through this draft method by picking players that would go to each team (your own mock mock draft). Then compare the talent of the teams in the snake format versus the teams in the backfill format. See if you think the teams are more evenly distributed.

 

You can draft however you want in your league. However the premise of your post was that by using your projections to create a VBD that a backfill draft was fairer than a snake for ALL leagues. Which is wrong.

 

What you fail to understand is that by doing this you are making to many assumptions (i.e. predictions, projections) thus the resulting data is flawed. Because we cannot predict the future, the only way to truly have a fair draft order is by a Serpentine draft with even number rounds. This is the ONLY mathematically "true" method that does not take into account someone’s "opinion" on player production

 

Let me guess, as commish you also split up the divisions in your league AFTER the draft based on what teams you think are good and what team you think are bad to make them "fair" in YOUR estimation. Even though we have not played a single down this year.

[Mangatang 0]

You can draft however you want in your league. However the premise of your post was that by using your projections to create a VBD that a backfill draft was fairer than a snake for ALL leagues. Which is wrong.

 

What you fail to understand is that by doing this you are making to many assumptions (i.e. predictions, projections) thus the resulting data is flawed. Because we cannot predict the future, the only way to truly have a fair draft order is by a Serpentine draft with even number rounds. This is the ONLY mathematically "true" method that does not take into account someone’s "opinion" on player production

 

Let me guess, as commish you also split up the divisions in your league AFTER the draft based what teams you think are good and what team you think are bad to make them "fair" in YOUR estimation. Even though we have not played a single down this year.

 

I'm not the commissioner.

 

So, you still don't think that the difference between the top player on your list and the 12th player on your list is bigger than the difference between the 13th player and the 24th player. Whether or not your predictions are accurate, you've got to know that the first pick is way more valuable in the first round than having the first pick in the second round.

 

Using your rational, having the first pick in the first eight rounds but having the 12th pick in rounds 9-16 would be no better than having the last pick in the first eight rounds followed by the first pick in rounds 9-16. The total value of both team's draft picks would be the same (1544), but the first team got to pick first during the more important rounds. Again, having the 1st pick of the first round is more valuable than having the first pick of the 9th round (or 2nd round, just to a lesser extent than the 9th).

 

Making sense?

[Jedi Sensei 17]

Thanks for all the feedback, fellas.

 

I have a 14-team keeper league that is more for the "serious FF types" but I also play in a more "casual" 10-team league.

 

The 10-teamers have complained for a couple of years now that 1st pick is "brutal" because of the 19-player run between it's 1st and 2nd selections. The feeling is that there's simply too steep a slope for talent...that 1.10+2.11 is a better combination than 1.1+2.20. I can't say I'm sure about that except, anecdotally, the 8-10 picks have gone to the Superbowl every year, whereas pick 1 has never been.

 

The league has flat refused an auction format, and was looking for another order to vote on. I have a sneaking suspicion that 'snaking' will come out on top, still, but we'll probably get a few votes on the "backfill" method.

[Bert 1,128]

Making sense?

The only way this makes sense is if you use revisionist history. The number one pick is very often not the number one scorer in the league for a given year. Your numbers make sence if you are using historical data. The unpredictability of actual performance is what destroys your theory.

[Mangatang 0]

The only way this makes sense is if you use revisionist history. The number one pick is very often not the number one scorer in the league for a given year. Your numbers make sence if you are using historical data. The unpredictability of actual performance is what destroys your theory.

 

Granted. But, aren't our predictions the best thing to go off of? What else is there? Wouldn't you say that you're more likely to predict a better player at the #1 spot than the #12 spot?

 

It's all a guessing game, but even guesses have degrees of accuracy. Some guesses (later rounds) might have a 20% chance of being correct (or close), whereas early rounds have a higher percent chance (say 50%). No matter how unpredictable, you still should be able to quantify your rankings in some way. Use statistics to apply a confidence factor or something like that, but either way you're going to have better players at the top of your list than at the bottom.

[Mangatang 0]

Here's the real test. You say that the snake format is the ONLY mathematically fair way to draft. Prove to me that my backfill method is unfair (or less unfair than the snake method).

[KSB2424 3,148]

Granted. But, aren't our predictions the best thing to go off of? What else is there?

We use predictions/projections to draft our players. We do not use them to create a draft order. If you cannot see the difference between the two then I do not know what else to tell you.

[Mangatang 0]

We us predictions/projections to draft our players. We do not use them to create a draft order. If you cannot see the difference between the two then I do not know what else to tell you.

 

Why not use it to create a better draft order?

 

So, just answer this question for me. If you had the option of drafting from any spot this year, where would it be? I'm pretty sure the vast majorty of fantasy football players would chose spot #1. Any time the majority of people want something, but only 1/12th of them can have it, it seems a bit unfair.

 

In an auction, anyone can get any player he wants. This is just not possible in a draft (of any format).

[KSB2424 3,148]

Why not use it to create a better draft order?

Who says it's better? You. Maybe I want to draft 6th as I think it holds better value. It is all opinion based on individual predictions.

 

I'm pretty sure the vast majorty of fantasy football players would chose spot #1.

Maybe or maybe not, once again you are making assumptions, I prefer to not speak for everyone. And who says the #1 draft pick will out perform the number #4 draft pick or even the #11 pick. Who the fock knows?!?!?

 

In an auction, anyone can get any player he wants. This is just not possible in a draft (of any format).

What the fock are you talking about auction for? Of course auction is the fairest way, we are not discussing that. Quit changing the subject.

 

[DankNuggs 305]

sepentine, but flip the 3rd round, (and third round only so last pick in first round gets first pick in 3rd)

[DankNuggs 305]

Who says it's better? You. Maybe I want to draft 6th as I think it holds better value. It is all opinion based on individual predictions.

 

Maybe or maybe not, once again you are making assumptions, I prefer to not speak for everyone. And who says the #1 draft pick will out perform the number #4 draft pick or even the #11 pick. Who the fock knows?!?!?

What the fock are you talking about auction for? Of course auction is the fairest way, we are not discussing that. Quit changing the subject.

 

There is a high likelihood the #1 pick outscores the #4 pick considerably.

[DankNuggs 305]

Here's the real test. You say that the snake format is the ONLY mathematically fair way to draft. Prove to me that my backfill method is unfair (or less unfair than the snake method).

backfill is fair. well modified backfield is fair, your backfill sounds like it actually might benefit later first round picks even more.

[DankNuggs 305]

The only way this makes sense is if you use revisionist history. The number one pick is very often not the number one scorer in the league for a given year. Your numbers make sence if you are using historical data. The unpredictability of actual performance is what destroys your theory.

 

 

disagree.

[DankNuggs 305]

You can draft however you want in your league. However the premise of your post was that by using your projections to create a VBD that a backfill draft was fairer than a snake for ALL leagues. Which is wrong.

 

What you fail to understand is that by doing this you are making to many assumptions (i.e. predictions, projections) thus the resulting data is flawed. Because we cannot predict the future, the only way to truly have a fair draft order is by a Serpentine draft with even number rounds. This is the ONLY mathematically "true" method that does not take into account someone’s "opinion" on player production

 

Let me guess, as commish you also split up the divisions in your league AFTER the draft based on what teams you think are good and what team you think are bad to make them "fair" in YOUR estimation. Even though we have not played a single down this year.

This is off the charts untrue.

 

Mangatang is far more methodical and analytical than you....accept it.

 

 

VBD is the perfect tool to analyze this situation.

[KSB2424 3,148]

This is off the charts untrue.

 

Mangatang is far more methodical and analytical than you....accept it.

VBD is the perfect tool to analyze this situation.

 

 

VBD is great for drafting players and picking your draft position.

 

However, you cannot use it to create a draft order for your whole league because it is based on individual projections and assumptions.

 

Some of you need to take a class in statistical theory.

 

I'm done here, its like discussing algebra with a focking 3rd grader.

[Ez 0]

QUOTE(Ez @ Aug 15 2007, 01:29 AM) *

Our league has used the following method for years and everyone likes it:

 

Whichever team drafts last in the previous round, drafts first in the next round.

 

So each team gets back - to - back picks at some point and every team gets a pick every 11 picks so you are not left sitting helplessly as a run gets going.

 

Example ( Team # ):

 

Round 1 - 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10

 

Round 2 - 10,1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9

 

Round 3 - 9,10,1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8

 

Round 4 - 8,9,10,1,2,3,4,5,6,7

 

Round 5 - 7,8,9,10,1,2,3,4,5,6

 

etc.

 

No offense, but this order just seems retarded to me. Not only does the 1st team get the best player (LT in this case) But they get the 2nd pick in the 2nd round while the 10th team doesn't get another pick til 9? I would kill myself the minute I got pick 10, that's the worst handicap ever.

 

 

What are you talking about ?

 

First off, it is a 1-player keeper league. The draft is based on the previous season's finish. So that does change things when it comes to the 1st pick getting LT.

 

Second off, the owner who picks 10th (last year's Super Bowl winner ie. me ), gets the 10th and 11th pick in the draft ( last pick in round #1 and first pick in round #2 )

 

I won it all back to back so I had the 10th pick last year and have it this year too. Last year I kept Holt and with the 10th and 11th pick I took Harrison and Fitzgerald since of course everyone loaded up on RB.

 

Snagged Reggie Wayne in the 3rd round who I later traded for Frank Gore after week 3.

 

Took Ahman Green in the 4th, Carson Palmer in the 5th and Thomas Jones in the 6th.

 

This was last year.

 

Handicapped ? I don't think so.

 

This year:

 

I'll be keeping Frank Gore and with the 10th and 11th pick if everyone loads up on RBs, I'll take two of the following to team up with Gore:

 

Steve Smith

Owens

Holt

Harrison

 

If a good back or two slips through the 1st round I'll be all over them.

 

I don't feel handicapped.

[Guest JahRasta311]

QUOTE(Ez @ Aug 15 2007, 01:29 AM) *

Our league has used the following method for years and everyone likes it:

 

Whichever team drafts last in the previous round, drafts first in the next round.

 

So each team gets back - to - back picks at some point and every team gets a pick every 11 picks so you are not left sitting helplessly as a run gets going.

 

Example ( Team # ):

 

Round 1 - 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10

 

Round 2 - 10,1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9

 

Round 3 - 9,10,1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8

 

Round 4 - 8,9,10,1,2,3,4,5,6,7

 

Round 5 - 7,8,9,10,1,2,3,4,5,6

 

etc.

What are you talking about ?

 

First off, it is a 1-player keeper league. The draft is based on the previous season's finish. So that does change things when it comes to the 1st pick getting LT.

 

Second off, the owner who picks 10th (last year's Super Bowl winner ie. me ), gets the 10th and 11th pick in the draft ( last pick in round #1 and first pick in round #2 )

 

I won it all back to back so I had the 10th pick last year and have it this year too. Last year I kept Holt and with the 10th and 11th pick I took Harrison and Fitzgerald since of course everyone loaded up on RB.

 

Snagged Reggie Wayne in the 3rd round who I later traded for Frank Gore after week 3.

 

Took Ahman Green in the 4th, Carson Palmer in the 5th and Thomas Jones in the 6th.

 

This was last year.

 

Handicapped ? I don't think so.

 

This year:

 

I'll be keeping Frank Gore and with the 10th and 11th pick if everyone loads up on RBs, I'll take two of the following to team up with Gore:

 

Steve Smith

Owens

Holt

Harrison

 

If a good back or two slips through the 1st round I'll be all over them.

 

I don't feel handicapped.

1. You made no mention of it being a keeper league.

2. The graphical representation made it seem like going downwards in columns was what each team got.

3. It's still the same, pick 9 is ###### instead of pick 10.

[eliasartigue 0]

sepentine, but flip the 3rd round, (and third round only so last pick in first round gets first pick in 3rd)

+1

The reason this works over the basic serpentine is simple. The person who picks first LT2 of course has 2 more picks in the top 25. That is a total of 3 picks in the top 25. Team 12 has 2 picks in the top 25. How is that fair? Team 12 had better draft spectacular to overcome this. The 3rd Rd reversal is the fairest way. I know its using projections but like everyone else said how else do you draft if not with projections? Jersey color?

[cotarice12 18]

I'm in a league that rotates the first pick in each round by 3 spots. Like this: Round 1: 1-10

Round 2: 4-3

Round 3: 7-6

Round 4: 10-9

Round 5: 3-2

Round 6: 6-5

Round 7: 9-8

Round 8: 2-1

Round 9: 5-4

Round 10: 8-7

Round 11: 1-10 and so on...

This was put in place as an alternative to the snake, and for the most part, it has worked well. There are a few spots you'd rather not draft from 3,5 and 6 (3 because you have the long wait between your first 2 picks, 5 and 6 because of the wait between 2nd and 3rd round), but overall it disperses things pretty well. Plus, everyone likes the fact that they get to pick 1st in a round, even if it's a later one. I prefer auction as well, but not all leagues are meant to be auction leagues, so I'd recommend this. Good luck with whatever you choose.

[urmother 0]

Having the 1rst and 28th draft picks is equal to having the 7th and 22th draft picks is equal to having the 14th and 15th draft picks.

 

 

nah. look at the real nfl draft for an analogy. while each individual draft has different players (and thus weightings for each spot based on the personnel available that year) there are generally accepted "value" starting points for various spots. and those values don't line up anywhere close to the #1 and #32 being worth the same as the #16 and #17. (the #1 is worth ~ the value of the 15, 16, and 17 put together most years.)

NFL draft selection value chart

Round 1 Round 2 Round 3 Round 4 Round 5 Round 6 Round 7

1. 3,000 33. 580 65. 265 97. 112 129. 43 161. 27 193. 14.2

2. 2,600 34. 560 66. 260 98. 108 130. 42 162. 26.6 194. 13.8

3 2,200 35 550 67 255 99 104 131 41 163 26.2 195 13.4

4 1,800 36 540 68 250 100 100 132 40 164 25.8 196 13

5 1,700 37 530 69 245 101 96 133 39.5 165 25.4 197 12.6

6 1,600 38 520 70 240 102 92 134 39 166 25 198 12.2

7 1,500 39 510 71 235 103 88 135 38.5 167 24.6 199 11.8

8 1,400 40 500 72 230 104 86 136 38 168 24.2 200 11.4

9 1,350 41 490 73 225 105 84 137 37.5 169 23.8 201 11

10 1,300 42 480 74 220 106 82 138 37 170 23.4 202 10.6

11 1,250 43 470 75 215 107 80 139 36.5 171 23 203 10.2

12 1,200 44 460 76 210 108 78 140 36 172 22.6 204 9.8

13 1,150 45 450 77 205 109 76 141 35.5 173 22.2 205 9.4

14 1,100 46 440 78 200 110 74 142 35 174 21.8 206 9

15 1,050 47 430 79 195 111 72 143 34.5 175 21.4 207 8.6

16 1,000 48 420 80 190 112 70 144 34 176 21 208 8.2

17 950 49 410 81 185 113 68 145 33.5 177 20.6 209 7.8

18 900 50 400 82 180 114 66 146 33 178 20.2 210 7.4

19 875 51 390 83 175 115 64 147 32.6 179 19.8 211 7

20 850 52 380 84 170 116 62 148 32.2 180 19.4 212 6.6

21 800 53 370 85 165 117 60 149 31.8 181 19 213 6.2

22 780 54 360 86 160 118 58 150 31.4 182 18.6 214 5.8

23 760 55 350 87 155 119 56 151 31 183 18.2 215 5.4

24 740 56 340 88 150 120 54 152 30.6 184 17.8 216 5

25 720 57 330 89 145 121 52 153 30.2 185 17.4 217 4.6

26 700 58 320 90 140 122 50 154 29.8 186 17 218 4.2

27 680 59 310 91 136 123 49 155 29.4 187 16.6 219 3.8

28 660 60 300 92 132 124 48 156 29 188 16.2 220 3.4

29 640 61 292 93 128 125 47 157 28.6 189 15.8 221 3

30 620 62 284 94 124 126 46 158 28.2 190 15.4 222 2.6

31 600 63 276 95 120 127 45 159 27.8 191 15 223 2.3

32 590 64 270 96 116 128 44 160 27.4 192 14.6 224 2

[Jimmy 0]

However, you cannot use it to create a draft order for your whole league because it is based on individual projections and assumptions.

 

I don't get it. Why can't you just plug in the last X years of actual results (sorted by VBD) and end up with empirical data comparing various fraft orders?

[Fozzy4 0]

Because a snake draft isn't as fair as other options. Here's the total VBD (Value Based Drafting because it allows you to compare different positions to each other) points for each draft position after 8 rounds of drafting, using conserative player projections and my league's scoring rules.

 

1. 394

2. 375

3. 345

4. 344

5. 328

6. 313

7. 296

8. 294

9. 296

10. 297

11. 295

12. 291

 

Having the #1 pick and then being able to pick two players in a row at 24/25 is too much for the 12th guy to overcome.

 

If you use the "Backfill" method, which is first round draft 1-12, then every round after that draft 12-1, you get a more even talent distribution among the teams. The 12th guy gets picks 12 and 13 as usual, but then in the third round he gets the first pick (instead of the guy with LT). It works out much better.

 

1. 361

2. 344

3. 317

4. 325

5. 318

6. 309

7. 301

8. 304

9. 315

10. 325

11. 326

12. 325

 

As you can see the differential in the snake method is 103 points, where the backfill method is only 60 points. It's still weighted in favor of the early drafters, but not near as much as the snake method.

 

Of course, auction is the only completly fair way to draft, but the backfill method is better than traditional snake and it's easy to remember the order (unlike some of these methods that switch the order every round).

 

If I'm not mistaken, you just proved that there is no way to make the 12th pick as good as the 1st unless you deny it a pick in at least one round. Even drafting last in all rds but the first one, and allowing 12th to go first in all but the first rd, you can't make the 12-spot as valuable as the 1st. Since we know the best value in a rd could be taken first in it, best picks would give the last picker the worst of each rd. If that's how you figured it out, then you proved that 1st has an inherent advantage.

 

However, I question your math. You calculated VBDs for picks after 8 rds. How did you do so? The only fair way would be to assume each player takes the best value pick with each of their picks. The idea is that to test a theory, you must assume perfect performance from every participant. If you used real drafts or ADPs, then you have destroyed your work in the process by subjecting it to human error.

 

X

 

Having the 1rst and 28th draft picks is equal to having the 7th and 22th draft picks is equal to having the 14th and 15th draft picks.

 

VBD relies on projections. Which may or may NOT be true. Therefore you cannot use it to determine the fairness or validity of a snake draft.

 

HTH.

 

Respectfully, you can't prove any of that crap you just said about picks being equal. You are assuming every player's actual performance will be identically spaced from the next pick in line, meaning the performance fall-off would have to be absolutely identical from pick to pick. Especially at the RB position this is definitely not the case - there are always a few who fly WELL above the rest, which is why the first pick is advantaged in a snake draft. He gets a shot to take the best player, and if you compare (using a 12-team league for example) the 1st and 24th best values to the performance of the 12th and 13th, you will invariably find that 1+24 is greater than 12+13. It doesn't matter who actually got picked then, what matters is that if everyone drafted best, the 12th team will lose. That's the definition of unfair - that even if picking perfectly, one team would still be at a disadvantage.

 

Also, if you have something better to base this on than VBD, go ahead and let it fly, I'd love to hear it. If you don't, then you might as well stop trying to tear it down. No matter how imperfect something may be, if it is the best option, it must be used.

 

In this case, though, it may be best to point to historical data. I'll see if I can analyze last year's stats and draw up value tables based on the actual player performances. If I can prove that snake draft was unfair last year, that should be enough for just about anyone.

 

I never said that it was impossible to win from the later draft spots. I just said you are at a disadvantage. Of course anyone who can pick talent better or gets lucky by picking the correct sleepers can win. But, the person from the #1 spot doesn't have to pick any sleepers or have any fantasy football saavy. They can draft LT and then just use any magazine's rankings and still field a playoff calibur team.

 

Your assumption that 1 & 24 are equal to 12 & 13 is only valid if the incremental value between players is equal throughout the top 24, but it's not. There is a much bigger differnce (steeper slope) at the top of the player lists. Also, the top players are also more predictable. You know LT and S Jax are going to be top players. You don't know so surely that Lawrence Maroney will be a top 12 player.

 

Again, the only TRUE way to make a completely fair draft, is to hold an auction. Then the true value of LT will weigh itself out by reducing the amount of remaining talent that team can take, and that will be a lot less than the #24 and #25 player.

 

Instead of just saying that the snake method is the BEST way just because it's always been used, why not actually plug in your own numbers into a spreadsheet, do your own analysis, and compare the numbers for your self. After you do that, and you can honestly say that the backfill method doesn't even the playing field out better than the snake, then you can come here and post that I'm wrong.

 

This is a very valid point. Just because it looks fair at first glance (due to the backwards order in every 2nd rd) doesn't mean it really is. There's little doubt that 1st pick is in fact better than 12th, because the fall-off in the top few players is so much steeper (as this post mentions) than is the fall-off after them, for the duration of the draft. That means those first few picks have much more value than anyone else in the draft, and the fall-off from 1 to 12 is basically guaranteed to be greater than that from 13 to 24 as a result. Since the balance is supposed to come from rd 2's fall-off canceling the fall-off of rd 1, the steeper rd 1 fall-off means that rd 2 does not adequately compensate team 12, and thus continues to leave team 1 at some advantage. This should repeat again if you look at 3&4, and again for 5&6. Basically the earlier rd always sees more fall-off than the later one because similar players become more common as the level of play decreases, so the earlier teams continue to build-up advantage through each pair of rounds. In the end this means a competent drafter could always pick better teams from earlier, and that means the system is unfair.

 

Our league has used the following method for years and everyone likes it:

 

Whichever team drafts last in the previous round, drafts first in the next round.

 

So each team gets back - to - back picks at some point and every team gets a pick every 11 picks so you are not left sitting helplessly as a run gets going.

 

Example ( Team # ):

 

Round 1 - 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10

 

Round 2 - 10,1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9

 

Round 3 - 9,10,1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8

 

Round 4 - 8,9,10,1,2,3,4,5,6,7

 

Round 5 - 7,8,9,10,1,2,3,4,5,6

 

etc.

 

Your system horribly favors team 1 and the early teams. 6, 7, and 8 get especially shafted, having their picks actually fall back in the rounds for a while before even getting an early pick in a rd. By the time they do, that early pick is very little advantage. This is decidedly less fair than snake drafting.

 

Plug what numbers in? Your projections.....my projections.....fftoday's projections.

You are assuming that whatever projections you are plugging in to your VBD are 100% accurate. That in and of itself is a fallacy.

 

What if my projections that I plug in have LT2 has having a down year due any number of factors (Turner getting more PT, change in coaching ect.) This would reduce the variance between him and every other RB. Maybe this reduction dictates that the 8th pick position is the best VBD pick based on MY PROJECTIONS.

 

Each team in a league may and should have different projections for players. You cannot just plug in what YOU think will happen and redo the format of a completly fair draft order to fit your crystal ball predictions.

 

 

He's not re-doing the format of a completely fair draft order, he's re-doing the format of a completely unfair one. You only think it's fair because you haven't looked at any numbers.

 

The only way this makes sense is if you use revisionist history. The number one pick is very often not the number one scorer in the league for a given year. Your numbers make sence if you are using historical data. The unpredictability of actual performance is what destroys your theory.

 

Actually, as I mentioned earlier, fairness is judged by every player making best picks and seeing what happens, not by actual events. Someone drafting in first can make bad choices, but that doesn't mean they didn't have an advantage anyway. The fact that you can outdraft other players and win from 10th position doesn't mean 10th position is better. It only means you drafted better. The true test is to assume everyone makes perfect picks, and see the result. It turns out unfair, I can guarantee that.

 

We us predictions/projections to draft our players. We do not use them to create a draft order. If you cannot see the difference between the two then I do not know what else to tell you.

 

As I said before, come up with a better way to evaluate the fairness of drafting methods, and I'm all ears.

[mleo21 0]

I don't get it. Why can't you just plug in the last X years of actual results (sorted by VBD) and end up with empirical data comparing various fraft orders?

 

Thank God. I can't believe i had to scoll through the entire discussion before someone brought this up.

[Ez 0]

LMAO

 

Our draft order horribly favors team #1 ?????????

 

Well, for starters team #1 was the worst team in the previous year. Maybe they need the help ?

 

The other genius says that team 9 is screwed. Yeah, he gets back-to-back picks between the 2nd and 3rd round. Man, soooo unfair.

 

Following are the Super Bowl Matchups since we started our draft system ( Team # = Draft Spot )

 

1997- Team #7 over Team #10

1998- Team #5 over Team #10

1999- Team #8 over Team #10

2000- Team #7 over Team #6

2001- Team #1 over Team #4

2002- Team #8 over Team #5

2003- Team #7 over Team #6

2004- Team #10 over Team #3

2005- Team #9 over Team #2

2006- Team #10 over Team #4

 

Appearances in the Super Bowl my Team #:

 

Team #1 - 1

Team #2 - 1

Team #3 - 1

Team #4 - 2

Team #5 - 2

Team #6 - 2

Team #7 - 3

Team #8 - 2

Team #9 - 1

Team #10 - 5

 

The only team # that you see in the Super Bowl a lot more than any other is Team #10.

 

3 times Team # 10 was me and the other 2 times were 2 different owners.

 

Team # 10 was the Super Bowl winner from the previous year and typically a team with a strong single keeper and a knowledgeable owner.

 

Since draft position is based on the previous year's finish, Teams 1 - 5 are owners who are the "weaker" owners and Teams 6 - 10 are the more competitive owners. Teams 1 - 5 make up Division # 1 and 6 - 10 make up Division # 2.

 

Every time I post our draft system people try and pick it apart but no one seems to agree on who it "favors".

 

Bottom line:

 

1) We like it

2) Every owner gets a pick every 11 picks so no one is stuck helpless when a "run" gets going.

3) Every owner gets a back-to-back pick at some point in the draft.

4) Stats show that it has produced balanced results aside from Team # 10 showing domination ( the owners who have been team #10 are usually the most knowledgeable owners which explains the dominance of Team # 10 )

 

So, you guys draft how ever you like. I could care less. The system works for our league and when people ask for different draft systems I show ours. Use it or don't, I'll sleep fine tonight.

[Fozzy4 0]

LMAO

 

Our draft order horribly favors team #1 ?????????

 

Well, for starters team #1 was the worst team in the previous year. Maybe they need the help ?

 

That well may be. We were, however, talking about fairness as in "every team has an equal position to draft from" which is definitely not even close to the case here. It may be desirable for team 1 to have an advantage if it is the worst team from last year, but I still have to point out that it does have that advantage since that factors into balance, the primary point of our discussion.

 

Bottom line:

 

1) We like it

2) Every owner gets a pick every 11 picks so no one is stuck helpless when a "run" gets going.

3) Every owner gets a back-to-back pick at some point in the draft.

4) Stats show that it has produced balanced results aside from Team # 10 showing domination ( the owners who have been team #10 are usually the most knowledgeable owners which explains the dominance of Team # 10 )

 

So, you guys draft how ever you like. I could care less. The system works for our league and when people ask for different draft systems I show ours. Use it or don't, I'll sleep fine tonight.

 

Team 10 doesn't only have last year's winner going for it, it also has a position that's considerably better than worst from a drafting standpoint. You take a hit in rd 1 by picking last, but immediately get to make up for it with the 1st 2nd and 3rd picks in the next 3 rds (2-4). That more than makes up for the fall-off in rd 1, and it looks to me like team 10 may have the strongest draft position of the back 5. The importance of high picks in the first few rds can't be understated. Let's compare with team 6, for instance. Team 10 drafts 4 positions behind it in rd 1. But then in rd 2, 3, 4, & 5, team 10 drafts 6 positions in front of team 6 each time. I don't think it's hard to see that over those important rds, team 10 gains a huge advantage over team 6, one that will not be overcome even as the next rds see 6 picking ahead of 10 again. Team 7 will similarly be inferior to 10's position: 3 ahead of 10th in rd 1, but then 10 is 7 ahead in rds 2, 3, & 4. It'll go back to team 7 being 3 ahead of team 10 then for a while, but that's not nearly enough to make up for the huge disparity in rds 2-4. Teams 8 & 9 versus 10 are much less clear to see since 10 only gains advantage in 2&3, or rd 2 only, respectively, but that gain is much more significant each time, being 8 spots ahead of team 8 in rds 2&3, or 9 spots ahead of team 9 in rd 2. Considering the slim margin those teams draft ahead of 10 in the other rds (2 ahead for 8, or 1 ahead for team 9) I'm inclined to say team 10 is at least as well off as either of those teams, and more than likely retains an advantage over both. As I said at the start, team 10 almost certainly has the best situation of any of the back 5, and may possibly be better than team 4&5 even because their picks continue to free-fall during all those important early rounds. In that case, 4&5 pick 6/5 ahead of 10 for rd 1, but then have 6/5 consecutive rounds of team 10 picking 3/4 ahead of them. Sounds like it could be trouble to me. The first 3 teams act similarly to 4&5 for that matter, but the huge advantage of having the top couple guys should still make them better spots to have. After looking at it like that, though, it's not hard to see why 10 keeps making your superbowls - you award last year's winner with a draft position that's got to be at least 6th best, and put all the other decent teams from last year in worse positions. I imagine that makes it pretty easy to beat everyone again, which certainly is confirmed by what you described - Team 10 winning means you have tons of repeats or near-repeats, and it's more than anything because you give them a very solid draft position. You'd likely be handicapping the best players the most by flipping the back 5 around, assigning the best player to slot 6, and 5th best to slot 10.

 

I also understand that you think your league's superbowl appearances have some higher meaning, but it sounds like there is a huge talent differential in your league, and as a result I'm betting a few skilled guys keep drafting from the last few spots, while the worst guys continually have the early ones. That likely being the case, you simply can't cite it as evidence of fairness - I'm quite sure talent of the players in early spots is keeping those teams down, as opposed to what you erroneously perceive as balance of the draft method making it possible for the later teams to win. As I've said a hundred times already, the fairness of a draft system absolutely cannot be judged by how real people drafted using it, because doing so subjects your testing to the error of your owners. That's especially the case when you haven't assigned spots randomly, since draft positions that are continually assigned bad owners will tank as a result, no matter how favorable their situation in a given drafting system. Team 1 has a very sweet draft position in your system, for instance, and yet it never does anything, and that is undoubtedly because it's always the worst owner who is at its helm.

 

Beyond the stats, though, all I need say is that your repeated team 10 superbowl appearances are an obvious sign that your system insufficiently handicaps the best owner from the previous year. As I said I believe he really gets the best draft spot out of the top 5 owners from last year, and I'm sure that's not what you or your league want. So, even from an observational standpoint, your drafting system is quite obviously broken, and I'd think you might want to do something to try to curb the obvious favor toward last-years winner. As before, my suggestion is to give him spot 6 instead of 10, continuing with a full reversal of the back 5 positions. That would make your draft (by last year's standings) go 10,9,8,7,6,1,2,3,4,5. Without running any complex numbers, I am reasonably certain 6th position will be the most inferior of the last 5 spots, which appear to improve as they get later in rd 1 instead of the degradation one would normally expect. Anyway, I've said my peace, take it or leave it. If you don't change it, though, don't be surprised if top owners continue mercilessly beating down the lower ones, and eventually make your league fall to shambles as a result. That doesn't sound like too much fun to me.