Non-snaking draft order

[KSB2424 3,148]

So given the mountain of evidence demonstrating its bias,

 

Your evidence is flawed! HTH

 

[ShoeGum 2]

I'll put it to you this way. Before every draft whether I have the first pick, the 6th pick or the 12th pick, I feel I have just as good a shot to win and have done so. In some years I prefer having the 12th pick based on my cheatsheet. In other years I prefer to have the 6th pick based on my cheatsheet, and like this year I would prefer to have the 1rst pick.

 

However I wouldn't dare modify a league draft order based these assumptions and predictions.

 

When you assume - It makes an ass out of u and me.

 

KSB, let's take flushmonkii's statement and take it one step further, lets say your in a 24 team league, you'd have no problem taking the 23rd or 24th player every year as opposed to the 1st or 2nd?

[Fozzy4 0]

I'll put it to you this way. Before every draft whether I have the first pick, the 6th pick or the 12th pick, I feel I have just as good a shot to win and have done so. In some years I prefer having the 12th pick based on my cheatsheet. In other years I prefer to have the 6th pick based on my cheatsheet, and like this year I would prefer to have the 1rst pick.

 

However I wouldn't dare modify a league draft order based these assumptions and predictions.

 

When you assume - It makes an ass out of u and me.

 

And what of the assumptions you have made? Believing it is fair amounts to more assumptions than I have made in demonstrating it not to be, and you have no evidence at all that it is fair, contrasted to my evidence that it isn't. You seem to incorrectly view the situation as overturning a proven system, when it is really simply a choice each time - whether to use snake, or to use a different method. Snake does not get an advantage simply because it is what everyone uses, it must prove its fairness as much as the next method. I have attacked its fairness directly, and instead of demonstrating snake's fairness, the only thing people can do is try to undermine my work. My work in any case is miles better than the non-existent work in your favor, so I win because I have work in the first place that demonstrates my point. Get it? Snake drafting can't win with no evidence to support it, and you have none.

[Pimptaddy 0]

Auction. Thread over.

 

 

Auctions are for idiots and noobs. They were invented by guys who got tired of losing to Peyton Manning and LT led teams.

[Mangatang 0]

bump

[GridironGuzzlers 3]

OK I've got it. You hold 14 different drafts-make a weekend out of it. Each owner gets to draft from each position. You then field 14 lineups each week against your opponents 14 lineups. Fairest way--end of discussion

[Jimmy 0]

OK I've got it. You hold 14 different drafts-make a weekend out of it. Each owner gets to draft from each position. You then field 14 lineups each week against your opponents 14 lineups. Fairest way--end of discussion

 

lol

 

Obviously that's unlikely to ever happen, but that would actually be a lot of fun. You could have a lot of fun figuring out any number of methods to determine an ultimate winner out of a situation like that. I like it!

[Fozzy4 0]

OK I've got it. You hold 14 different drafts-make a weekend out of it. Each owner gets to draft from each position. You then field 14 lineups each week against your opponents 14 lineups. Fairest way--end of discussion

 

Yes! Mark me down for that. You simply sum up the points all of your lineups score, and that's your actual score that week. Each draft would have about the same set of guys drafted, so each league should be worth basically the same amount of points each week, meaning it's okay for us to simply add them all up at the same weight. Sounds like a blast, but I might go crazy having to watch all the guys I own each weekend from 12 different drafts.

[dbrude 0]

It may be true that the 1st pick has an advantage but what is the size of that advantage in reality.

 

Things like linjuries, inequal owners, non-perfect drafting, perceived "top players" regressing to the mean, inconsistent point output in head to head leagues that dont't use total points and just general luck may reduce the theoretical advantage to an insignifgant real advantage.

 

I'm guessing the real advantage is low but unless somone has years of draft positions and results to provide there is no way of knowing. Maybe draft slot #1 is only 2% more likely to produce more points than 12 to win. You will hardly play enough seasons for this to bear out. I'm guessing in leagues where total points doesn't determine the winner the advantage becomes even less as the role of luck is larger.

 

Another key point here is that if the draft order is randomized every season than most everyone will get a chance at an "unfair" draft slot.

 

I mean in my 10-12 years of playing fantasy football most often the thing that catapults a team to a win is getting a guy in the later rounds that turns in first round numbers Aka Randy moss, mushin muhammed, terry allen, etc (way back in the day). And there is usually at least one player like this every season.

 

Only having 3 years of online data to look at form my league there is a slight correlation 0.25 between draft position and final season point total ranking. But my guess is it could be just a sample size issue which goes back to my point of just how large the avantage is. The correlations for the single season were 0.65, -0.2, 0.3

[bpork 0]

wow, this thread is unreadable -- i was interested in the back and forth kind of debate until I saw all the ad-hominem attacks with every post.

 

I would imagine if high stakes people are using a non-serpentine draft, then there's a problem with serpentine. I like serpentine only if adjust the draft order to have the last year's last place team at #1, and the best team in the last position. These ideas were brought out in the sea of posts in this thread, just wanted to say that I liked these ideas most.

 

Also, someone should provide the data for all past years as the conclusion for this thread...and then you can all start attacking each other again.

[Bert 1,128]

Gotta love the irony. Explains why you were not willing to post your draft results.

 

Fozzy4 Today, 02:35 PM

 

QUOTE(vardaski @ Aug 27 2007, 02:51 PM)

I agree that Chambers should be your 3rd wr and then look towards Clayton if he gets healthy. You might eventually be tossing Glenn for Crayton but you have rediculous value at rb. I can't believe Portis goes in the 5th? round in any league.

 

Was this using your back fill method of drafting? And what position did you draft from? QUOTE

 

 

Regular serpentine draft. I drafted from 6th. Kinda sick that Westbrook fell to 14th overall.

 

 

--------------------

 

Roster from my 10-team league:

 

QB J.Kitna/E.Manning

RB J.Addai/B.Westbrook/C.Portis/B.Jacobs/D.Williams

WR T.Holt/L.Evans/M.Clayton/C.Chambers/T.Glenn

TE A.Gates

K O.Mare

DEF BAL/GB

[vardaski 0]

Gotta love the irony. Explains why you were not willing to post your draft results.

 

Fozzy4 Today, 02:35 PM

 

QUOTE(vardaski @ Aug 27 2007, 02:51 PM)

I agree that Chambers should be your 3rd wr and then look towards Clayton if he gets healthy. You might eventually be tossing Glenn for Crayton but you have rediculous value at rb. I can't believe Portis goes in the 5th? round in any league.

 

Was this using your back fill method of drafting? And what position did you draft from? QUOTE

Regular serpentine draft. I drafted from 6th. Kinda sick that Westbrook fell to 14th overall.

--------------------

 

Roster from my 10-team league:

 

QB J.Kitna/E.Manning

RB J.Addai/B.Westbrook/C.Portis/B.Jacobs/D.Williams

WR T.Holt/L.Evans/M.Clayton/C.Chambers/T.Glenn

TE A.Gates

K O.Mare

DEF BAL/GB

Man you mean your league didn't pick perfectly. What do you know lots of variables.

Fozzy I want to know if you win this year. I also want to know what happens to the people in positions 1-4. I still vote for people turning in their results over the years of draft position and who were the top 3 using serpentine drafts.

[Bert 1,128]

Man you mean your league didn't pick perfectly. What do you know lots of variables.

 

Are you brain damaged? How can you not see the irony of this? Hell, I even bolded it for you. Let me try to explain it to you. The lead loud mouth in the, a serpentine draft is the worst most unfair thing known to fantasy football movement, using a serpentine draft is like Mike Vick being the head of PETA and the SPCA.

[Mangatang 0]

Are you brain damaged? How can you not see the irony of this? Hell, I even bolded it for you. Let me try to explain it to you. The lead loud mouth in the, a serpentine draft is the worst most unfair thing known to fantasy football movement, using a serpentine draft is like Mike Vick being the head of PETA and the SPCA.

 

What?!? I don't understand either of your points from your last two posts. And, as best I can tell, vardaski was agreeing with you. Why would you berate him?

[Fozzy4 0]

Gotta love the irony. Explains why you were not willing to post your draft results.

 

Fozzy4 Today, 02:35 PM

 

QUOTE(vardaski @ Aug 27 2007, 02:51 PM)

I agree that Chambers should be your 3rd wr and then look towards Clayton if he gets healthy. You might eventually be tossing Glenn for Crayton but you have rediculous value at rb. I can't believe Portis goes in the 5th? round in any league.

 

Was this using your back fill method of drafting? And what position did you draft from? QUOTE

Regular serpentine draft. I drafted from 6th. Kinda sick that Westbrook fell to 14th overall.

--------------------

 

Roster from my 10-team league:

 

QB J.Kitna/E.Manning

RB J.Addai/B.Westbrook/C.Portis/B.Jacobs/D.Williams

WR T.Holt/L.Evans/M.Clayton/C.Chambers/T.Glenn

TE A.Gates

K O.Mare

DEF BAL/GB

 

In case you don't already know, one person in a league wanting something isn't enough for it to happen. I never said my leagues used backfill, I only said it is statistically more fair. You assume an awful lot.

 

Are you brain damaged? How can you not see the irony of this? Hell, I even bolded it for you. Let me try to explain it to you. The lead loud mouth in the, a serpentine draft is the worst most unfair thing known to fantasy football movement, using a serpentine draft is like Mike Vick being the head of PETA and the SPCA.

 

Again, sometimes things are out of your control. I also don't think some of the laws of the United States are fair at all, but again there's not a damn thing I can do about that. It's possible I could've found a league that didn't use serpentine draft method, but on the whole it would take an awful lot of time to do so. Obviously an existing league that isn't using backfill isn't going to change, because it undoubtedly has some members just like you, Bert, who simply do not comprehend statistics or math at large, or at least can't come to reasonable conclusions based on either one.

 

Man you mean your league didn't pick perfectly. What do you know lots of variables.

Fozzy I want to know if you win this year. I also want to know what happens to the people in positions 1-4. I still vote for people turning in their results over the years of draft position and who were the top 3 using serpentine drafts.

 

You act as though that has some significance, or like it's unexpected. We know imperfect picks will happen, because only 1 permutation out of the millions of possible draft outcomes is actually the best one. It really amazes me that you guys can't grasp this yet. For the nth time, the variable skills of the owners in that league does not prove ANYTHING about the fairness of serpentine drafting. In reality, they actually obfuscate the truth of the matter. Fairness is a statistical comparison of the theoretical possibilities afforded to each owner in the draft, not an observation of actual outcomes, which is precisely why situations like the coin flipping observation someone tried to use earlier simply fall through as examples. That possibility is a different amount for each owner, and by a substantial margin, so we know the system is biased inherently when applied to fantasy football because it limits some owners far more than others. There's nothing you can do that makes your precious variables factor into fairness at all, so I suggest you come up with some other angle to take if you wish to have any chance of making a successful point.

 

There's another easy way to explain this - consider my draft with owners in different positions. What happens? The advantageous picks follow around the same people because they still pick better than the other owners. Result? Changing draft order makes the difference due to owner skill move as well, which further demonstrates that it is independent of the draft method, and therefore does not matter one iota. My great draft would look like an even bigger point in my favor if I had happened to draw a number near the top, which is precisely the point: no matter what number I draw, my skill comes into play at that spot, but I also will always get the good or ill effects afforded by that particular draft position, which is not related to my skill as I'm sure you can see. That's why I work to remove picking skill from my work, and why the arguments based on owner skill are entirely invalid.

 

Now consider if a 10-team league drafted in all possible permutations (10! = 3,628,800). What is the result? The average result from each position would prove out the same balance issues I demonstrated, because each owner would've drafted from each spot an identical number of times, and each average team resulting would be at the average skill level of the owners, and thus picking skill at each position would be a constant across the positions. So in the end, my removal of owner bias by giving perfect picks is simply a faster way to arrive at the same result where owner imperfection is successfully removed from consideration, as it must be.

 

The implication to actual data is interesting too. First, we know any given draft, by itself, is meaningless, because it doesn't sufficiently average the difference in owner skill. You would need a statistically significant sample size to ensure an acceptable chance of meeting that criteria. Furthermore, only data from leagues that pick the draft order randomly each year would be usable, since leagues that assign it by some criteria bring that criteria into play as a source of bias (often owner skill again, that dreaded thing). There are so many other things like scoring system and starting lineup that would also have to match in the data set, though, that it becomes quite impractical to try to assemble such a sample. Oh did I mention that you'd have to sample fantasy football players randomly, as opposed to say just using people on our message board? If you did that, you could actually bias the data toward players who are attracted to sites like this, and thus make it invalid. For example maybe FFT users tend to be smarter than average FFers, in which case our intelligence would bias the results which then wouldn't hold for FFers of average intelligence. It gets spectacularly messy, and is most certainly best avoided entirely, which is exactly why I began working theoretically instead.

[vardaski 0]

What?!? I don't understand either of your points from your last two posts. And, as best I can tell, vardaski was agreeing with you. Why would you berate him?

Yes Bert I was agreeing with you. Just trying to be sarcastic about it.

 

Fozzy go ahead and continue to live in you fantasy of perfect picks but until you can show me actual data that proves a serpentine draft favors the top lets say 3 over the rest then I'm going to continue to ignore your long winded b.s.

 

Like I've said from the beginning there are too many variables that play into a person's draft position equating to the outcome in their league for your model to translate into real life. I definitely understand your model you need to understand it's limitations.

 

I would simply like to see data from people in serpentine drafts that shows the top 3 gain an unfair advantage. I agree it is a nightmare statistically speaking with lots of variables like roster size, # of teams, points, knowledge, etc........

My mind is still open to the idea but I want real life statistics to prove it. I gave you everything I had from my real life statistics.

I understand big money leagues are moving to other drafting styles. But what if they changed based on feelings they had about getting screwed and drafting last when in reality the change didn't improve their chances but made them feel better?

 

What if the back fill system in reality favors the top spots even more?

 

Like I said my mind is open provided you start showing me real life statistics. Otherwise it is going to continue to use the small amount of data I have and I will continue to collect more to see if the trend is correct (unfortunately I've picked 10th in two leagues so far). Granted I'll never have an answer for as long as I live which is why I would love to see other data. Fozzy do you have any data you have access to in your history?

[Jimmy 0]

Like I've said from the beginning there are too many variables that play into a person's draft position equating to the outcome in their league for your model to translate into real life. I definitely understand your model you need to understand it's limitations.

 

Blah, can't believe I'm getting back into this.

 

There're a couple things to consider here:

 

1. You can only prove that it was unfair/unbalanced in the past. Which he did, for 2006. As for future inequalities, all you can do is assume. Which isn't that big a stretch for fantasy footballers since that's really all that "predictions" are: educated assumptions. That said, very few years will ever be as unbalanced to the number 1 draft slot as 2006 was (thank you LT and your record-breaking ways.) I don't feel like doing it, but 2004 would be a very interesting year because the "talent plateau" goes about as deep as I can ever remember seeing it (i.e. noone really separated themselves at the top, which creates the imbalance in the Snake format) and would probably make the Snake format as equitable as it is likely to ever be.

 

2. Variables are irrelevant. I don't like the poker analogy a whole lot, but it's valid enough in this case: Just because the flop comes 777, doesn't mean that when the 72o was originally dealt that it wasn't at a statistical disadvantage to AA. Same with the draft order. NOONE is saying that you can't win out of ANY position. Just that you have anywhere from a slight to significant advantage depending on where you draft and how the season plays out. No matter how much luck, skill, or cheating is invovled in the draft and regular season, doesn't change the statistical probabilities created by drafting from certain positions. The challenge is - is it worth jacking with your draft method every season based purely on assumptions? Most of us say no and/or change to auction and avoid the whole ordeal.

[Bert 1,128]

Yes Bert I was agreeing with you. Just trying to be sarcastic about it.

 

Sorry dude too many beers last night.

[KSB2424 3,148]

I guess Fozzy's crystal ball was a little cloudy.

 

So who wants to say the first 3 picks in 2007 have an advantage over the rest of the positions in a standard snake draft. As of week 4 I would rather have drafted 5 - 12.

 

Bert and I win this thread.

[Lions_or_Die 0]

I didn't read any of this thread, but the simple answer boils down to one word: Auction.

 

The auction draft provides every owner the opportunity to bid on each and every player. We have one owner who spent all his money on S. Jackson and L. Johnson. That owner is 1-2 and barely won the one game. When I say barely, it was by .7 points so it was just barely a victory. The LT owner is 0-3 and the Peyton Manning owner is 1-2.

 

The auction draft gives every owner the ability to manage the outcome of their draft. They get to make real decisions when the bid is 40 for LT (with a 100 cap). Do I bid 41? Do I let him go? I think he went for 45 in our league.

[Lions_or_Die 0]

I guess Fozzy's crystal ball was a little cloudy.

 

So who wants to say the first 3 picks in 2007 has a advantage over the rest of the positions in a standard snake draft. As of week 4 I would rather have drafted 5 - 12.

 

Bert and I win this thread.

 

Drafting 1-3 or 5-12, it remains totally random and out of the owner's control. With an auction (and at least half a brain), the owners get to truly manage their draft.

[KSB2424 3,148]

I didn't read any of this thread, but the simple answer boils down to one word: Auction.

Maybe you should have read the first page at least as the auction method was already discussed.

 

The thread is about standard snake vs. non-standard snake (i.e. backfilled draft).

 

HTH

[KSB2424 3,148]

I've decided to implement a front filled draft order for next year. As it is obvious that by using data from this year the first 3 draft picks (per ADP) have a signifigant disadvantage over the other draft picks.

 

[KSB2424 3,148]

I play in two money leagues. In one league, draft slots 1 and 3 both missed the playoffs. In the other, both draft slots 2 and 3 missed the playoffs.

[zaurg 0]

What would be cool is to see a BIG sample of 10 or 12 team leagues that used snake drafts

 

Here is a listing of 5 leagues and the 4 teams (shown as their draft position) that made the playoffs in each. Superbowl winner is in bold. These are from 10-team leagues that used snake drafts.

 

2004: 3rd, 5th, 7th, 8th

2005: 2nd, 6th, 7th, 10th

2006: 3rd, 4th, 8th, 9th

2007: 1st, 3rd, 5th, 6th

2007: 3rd, 5th, 6th - 1st and 10th are still fighting for the last playoff spot.

 

Small sample size I think it all evens out over time with similarly skilled/knowledgable owners.

[Jokers 0]

On another website, a statistical analysis was done for six 12-team leagues using WCOFF scoring and serpentine draft. No trading was allowed. The results for success vs draft postion as of Week 11 is:

 

5

12

7

8

2

6

1

10

3

4

9

11

 

It is kind of funny 11 and 12 were so far apart, since many different players/strategies could have been used there.

[DC 9]

Our league has used the following method for years and everyone likes it:

 

Whichever team drafts last in the previous round, drafts first in the next round.

 

So each team gets back - to - back picks at some point and every team gets a pick every 11 picks so you are not left sitting helplessly as a run gets going.

 

Example ( Team # ):

 

Round 1 - 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10

 

Round 2 - 10,1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9

 

Round 3 - 9,10,1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8

 

Round 4 - 8,9,10,1,2,3,4,5,6,7

 

Round 5 - 7,8,9,10,1,2,3,4,5,6

 

etc.

 

Dumbest thing I have ever seen posted in this forum. Please give me the #1 slot in your draft. I get the best of round 1, 2nd best of round 2, 3rd best of round 3. This is the most unfair drafting mechanism ever created. "Everyone likes it" in your league? You must bring in some awfully hot babes to blow everone while the draft is in progress.

[gocolts 300]

Anybody know how I can arrange a non-snaking draft? W/O resorting to auction drafts or re-drawing draft order each round?

A number of years ago a 'math-nerd' buddy of mine came up with a weighted draft for our 14-team league, and everyone was happy, felt they had equal shot at talent. I'm looking for a 10 team equivalent to pitch to my league of bitchers.

How we finish determines the first and second round. Worst gets first pick, winner gets last. Then snake round 2.

 

We do a random draw for round 3 and then snake round 4 from where you drafted round 3.

 

We do a random draw for all odd rounds (3-5-7-9-etc) and then snake the evens (4-6-8-10-etc.) for the following round.

 

It takes about 15 minutes to draw a 10 team, 18 rounds.

[FrankRizzo 0]

Dumbest thing I have ever seen posted in this forum. Please give me the #1 slot in your draft. I get the best of round 1, 2nd best of round 2, 3rd best of round 3. This is the most unfair drafting mechanism ever created. "Everyone likes it" in your league? You must bring in some awfully hot babes to blow everone while the draft is in progress.

 

I think you are looking at it wrong .... I think in Round 2 the first pick gets the worst.

Team 1: 1.01, 2.10, 3.09, 4.08, 5.07, 6.06, 7.05, etc

It's pick #2 that is money - Rd1 = 2nd pick, Rd2 = 1st pick, but gets screwed round 3, then every 10 picks.

Team 2: 1.02, 2.01, 3.10, 4.09, 5.08, 6.07, 7.06, etc

 

I don't see much of an advantage for team 3 .....

Team 3: 1.03, 2.02, 3.01, 4.10

 

So it looks like this system is really trying to screw pick #1 ... I'm sure this style was heavily implemented last year when all nine guys that didn't have pick #1 (LT) cried fowl.

[jdon 28]

If I were to add my two cents I would say that in the five years I have played ff (say 11 leagues total) the wins favor picks 9-12 over 1-3... I think its hardest to win in the middle 5-8...

 

When it really comes down to it you can win in any position and most of the adjustments I have seen seem to overcalculate the value of the first pick.

jdon

[washers 0]

What concerns me is that the argument is made that there is no math to show the backfill draft is more fair...since projections have too much "human error"...and you rely on the #1 pick not being #1 at the end of the year to justify a snake. Then when the math for a backfill is presented...the exact opposite comes out and says the math cant prove anything because theres "human error" in the picks....pick which way youre going and stick with it!

 

for the record...the #1 pick this year in our snake draft is 11-2 in first place with 3rd most points (although least points against...leading to the head to head vs total points) I had 4th pick and have the second best record with the most points scored and average points against.