Keeper Help! WHIR!

[mobb_deep 919]

In my big money, 10 team, 3 keeper fantasy fraft, I pick 5th. I'm torn on who to grab with my first pick (4th round).

 

My keepers are Shaun Alexander, Torry Holt, and Brandon Jacobs

 

QB/RB/RB/WR/WR/FLEX/TE/DEF/K

 

These are the available backs (please note I pick 5th and the first 4 need RB's).

 

Travis Henry

Maurice Jones Drew

Thomas Jones

Ced Benson

---------------------

Marshawn Lynch

Deuce McAllister

Cadi Williams

Adrian Peterson (MIN)

 

Assuming the top 4 will most likely be gone I'm looking at the bottom 4. My heart is telling me Lynch because of the age, young team, good hands, etc., but my head is telling me Deuce. I think Deuce will get almost as many carries, on a better team, with the GL looks. AP and Cadi are also options but I'm not too high on them and there situations. I also plan on taking Tuner around the 7th so I'm hoping he'll be a possible keeper next year (depending where he lands).

 

Give me some guidance!

[Vanillarainstorm 0]

I'd go Lynch, especially in a keeper. He's a better fit for Buff. than Mac G was. Go with your heart. I think Lynch could have better overall numbers than him this year. And in a keeper who would you rather have... A up and coming stud at back, or Deuce and his injury history, with Bush there?

 

 

 

http://www.fftodayforums.com/forum/index.p...howtopic=279814

[bdaddy407 0]

You might still have a chance with Benson. He has been drafted pretty low in all the mock drafts that I've seen, so that would be a good thing if he is still around. Personally out of that 2nd group I have to say Duece as well. Cadi just lacks ability, however he does have an easier schedule this year. Still Deuce is you man!

 

my turn : http://www.fftodayforums.com/forum/index.p...howtopic=279773

[rottytiny 7]

I like them how you have them:

Travis Henry

Maurice Jones Drew

Thomas Jones

Ced Benson

---------------------

Marshawn Lynch

Deuce McAllister

Cadi Williams

Adrian Peterson (MIN)

 

 

I may be tempted to grab AP, since its a keeper league, over Lynch. but I'd take both over Duece and Caddy. Good luck.

 

 

Please see mine again if you get a chance:

http://www.fftodayforums.com/forum/index.p...p;#entry3221593

[MTSkiBum 1,602]

I expect Lynch to be in a full on RBBC this year, from everything i have read, but so is deuce and AP. I would take Caddy. He is young, he has a much better QB behind him this year(than last year), so i expect his YPC to be much improved over a year ago. The downside is, even though he is young, the QB will probably be someone different next year. But i expect caddy to put up the best numbers out of the bottum 4- this year.

[badger195 0]

Lynch if you can't get one of the top 4.

[mobb_deep 919]

Lynch if you can't get one of the top 4.

 

Why? You really think he'll score more TD's than McAllister this year with the GL's going to old man A-Train?

 

I plan on taking Turner in the 6th/7th so depending on where he goes I'm hoping he'll be a keeper next year. I'm from Cal and love Lynch but I just can't see him outperforming Duece this year. Even in a keeper league you wanna win NOW not always worry about the young guys (look how Cadi, Deangelo, White, etc. have performed as rooks/2nd year players).

 

Come on guys. I'm giving you full paragraph responses. I'd appreciate more than one sentence with absolutely no insight.

[MTSkiBum 1,602]

Why? You really think he'll score more TD's than McAllister this year with the GL's going to old man A-Train?

 

I plan on taking Turner in the 6th/7th so depending on where he goes I'm hoping he'll be a keeper next year. I'm from Cal and love Lynch but I just can't see him outperforming Duece this year. Even in a keeper league you wanna win NOW not always worry about the young guys (look how Cadi, Deangelo, White, etc. have performed as rooks/2nd year players).

 

Come on guys. I'm giving you full paragraph responses. I'd appreciate more than one sentence with absolutely no insight.

 

sorry i am at work right now, i will give you a well thought out response on why i would chose caddy later tonight.

[Bbleehehh9 0]

Personally, I would take any of those first 4 that fall to you if they are available.. if not, I may look at grabbing the best WR thats available, as you already have your top 2 backs and no WR's... If your heart is set on taking a RB though, I think that Lynch will be the best of that group

 

Please see mine

http://www.fftodayforums.com/forum/index.p...howtopic=279028

[Know Doubt 0]

Beware the Saints schedule this year.

They are gonna be playing a 1st place schedule.

 

That means tougher games and possibly more throwing when behind.

 

 

I like Lynch or Caddy.

 

Not great options IMHO but thats whats left.

[mobb_deep 919]

Personally, I would take any of those first 4 that fall to you if they are available.. if not, I may look at grabbing the best WR thats available, as you already have your top 2 backs and no WR's... If your heart is set on taking a RB though, I think that Lynch will be the best of that group

 

Please see mine

http://www.fftodayforums.com/forum/index.p...howtopic=279028

 

Obviously I'd take one of those 4 RB's but I pick 5th. That's why I said "Assuming the top 4 will most likely be gone I'm looking at the bottom 4"

 

I already have Holt, we only start 2 WR, and I can start 3 RB's. If I go RB in the 4th I can still get someone like Plax, Andre Johnson, or Deion Branch in the 5th, who would be a fine #2 WR.

 

Why do I even come here for advice... Bad advice is one thing, but you guys are so worried about getting your own advice you don't even bother reading.

 

Please, if you guys are only replying to get me to answer your question, don't bother.

[comxkid 0]

If you're looking to win this year; I'd go with Deuce. He generated fairly consistent points last year and should do the same this year (he'll be the goal line and power back to go with Reggie's speed). Not bad for a #3 RB.

 

If you're looking for late season help with an eye to next year, AP may be your man. I think he is going to be the man later in the year for Minnesota.

[mobb_deep 919]

Beware the Saints schedule this year.

They are gonna be playing a 1st place schedule.

 

That means tougher games and possibly more throwing when behind.

I like Lynch or Caddy.

 

Not great options IMHO but thats whats left.

 

Good point, let's take a look.

 

NO @ IND (+)

NO @ TB (+)

TEN @ NO (+)

BYE

CAR @ NO (-)

NO @ SEA (+)

ATL @ NO (+)

NO @ SF (+)

JAC @ NO (-)

STL @ NO (+)

NO @ HOU (+)

NO @ CAR (-)

TB @ NO (+)

 

Fantasy Playoff's

 

NO @ ATL (+)

ARI @ NO (+)

PHI @ NO (+/-)

 

NO @ CHI (FF season is over so who cares)

 

Ok so out of 15 games (16th is after FF season) I count 11 favorable run games, 3 tough, and 1 marginal. The playoff week matchup's leading to the championship game couldn't be easier, so that's a nice bonus too.

 

I'm not sure how this is a 1st place schedule, but we are talking about the NFC afterall.

 

The more people try to talk me into Lynch or Cadi the more it makes me realize how obvious McAllister is.

 

Thanks I guess!

[Tjung 0]

Good point, let's take a look.

 

NO @ IND (+)

NO @ TB (+)

TEN @ NO (+)

BYE

CAR @ NO (-)

NO @ SEA (+)

ATL @ NO (+)

NO @ SF (+)

JAC @ NO (-)

STL @ NO (+)

NO @ HOU (+)

NO @ CAR (-)

TB @ NO (+)

 

Fantasy Playoff's

 

NO @ ATL (+)

ARI @ NO (+)

PHI @ NO (+/-)

 

NO @ CHI (FF season is over so who cares)

 

Ok so out of 15 games (16th is after FF season) I count 11 favorable run games, 3 tough, and 1 marginal. The playoff week matchup's leading to the championship game couldn't be easier, so that's a nice bonus too.

 

I'm not sure how this is a 1st place schedule, but we are talking about the NFC afterall.

 

The more people try to talk me into Lynch or Cadi the more it makes me realize how obvious McAllister is.

 

Thanks I guess!

 

I'd go Deuce or Thomas Jones. Jones is consistency and you can pretty much count on him week to week....almost never any worries about being a GTD.

[Big_Pete 0]

keeper = 1st Lynch 2nd Peterson

You're right, the first 4 will be long gone.

While I can see Lynch being better this year, I could see Peterson eventually catching/surpassing Lynch next year.

And it's a keeper league, so depending on how Jacobs does this year and the RBBC is handled, you will in all probability be keeping whoever you pick up with this pick.

Peterson is very physical, but is injury prone.

Lynch isn't as talented as Peterson, but I think he's in a better situation.

 

Head tells me Lynch, gut tells me Peterson

sorry, not much help

[delusional247 0]

have to go with lynch on this one since its a keeper

chester is still out in Minn..whose in buffalo?

[MTSkiBum 1,602]

Last year Caddy was playing injured the entire season. He had a terrible offense, and QB problems throughout, no passing game to take 8 out of the box, and only had 225 carries. He averaged a measly 3.5 ypc. For this upcoming year they brought in Luke Petigrout(blocker for Tiki) and they have 2 second year linemen who they are high on. And they drafted a lineman(RG)who is expected to be an upgrade, and start right away. Between a decent starting QB and the upgrades to the line i expect an increas of .4 minumum in Caddy's YPC. If he stays healthy i expect a 315 carry season out of him. This is partly due to the fact that i think Buc's defense should live up to the hype and be able to keep them in the game enough to run in the 4th quarter. This would put him at 1100 yard season. Also with this upgraded offense he should score more than 1 TD this year, lets say a conservative estimate of 5 in the rushing game. Caddy also is a pretty decent receiving back, last year even though he had dismal numbers in the rushing game he still had 200 receiving yards, their is no reason not to assume that this would go up to 250 and 2 TD's with a west coast QB like Garcia in charge. This means that i am projecting 1350 yards and 7 TD's for Caddy should he remain healthy and the defense can keep them in the game enough to rush in the 4th quarter. This would be 170-180 fantasy points. That would put him in the range of 15-25 ish for RB's a good solid #2 and decent value in the 4th.

 

 

Deuce on the other hand, we know plays in a high powered offense, but he very well could lose 10 carries and a couple TD's this year to Bush, this would drop him from the 180 fantasy points he had a year ago to 165-175 just slightly below Caddy.

 

 

Tampa's schedule down the stretch

Week 14 Texans 19th best rushing defense last year

Week 15 Atlanta- last year had 9th best rushing defense- this is a downside if they keep the same quality of rush defense.

Week 16 San fran 20th best rushing defense last year

 

 

Lynch and AP shouldnt even be in the equation if you are drafting Turner to be a keeper next year.

[mobb_deep 919]

Last year Caddy was playing injured the entire season. He had a terrible offense, and QB problems throughout, no passing game to take 8 out of the box, and only had 225 carries. He averaged a measly 3.5 ypc. For this upcoming year they brought in Luke Petigrout(blocker for Tiki) and they have 2 second year linemen who they are high on. And they drafted a lineman(RG)who is expected to be an upgrade, and start right away. Between a decent starting QB and the upgrades to the line i expect an increas of .4 minumum in Caddy's YPC. If he stays healthy i expect a 315 carry season out of him. This is partly due to the fact that i think Buc's defense should live up to the hype and be able to keep them in the game enough to run in the 4th quarter. This would put him at 1100 yard season. Also with this upgraded offense he should score more than 1 TD this year, lets say a conservative estimate of 5 in the rushing game. Caddy also is a pretty decent receiving back, last year even though he had dismal numbers in the rushing game he still had 200 receiving yards, their is no reason not to assume that this would go up to 250 and 2 TD's with a west coast QB like Garcia in charge. This means that i am projecting 1350 yards and 7 TD's for Caddy should he remain healthy and the defense can keep them in the game enough to rush in the 4th quarter. This would be 170-180 fantasy points. That would put him in the range of 15-25 ish for RB's a good solid #2 and decent value in the 4th.

Deuce on the other hand, we know plays in a high powered offense, but he very well could lose 10 carries and a couple TD's this year to Bush, this would drop him from the 180 fantasy points he had a year ago to 165-175 just slightly below Caddy.

Tampa's schedule down the stretch

Week 14 Texans 19th best rushing defense last year

Week 15 Atlanta- last year had 9th best rushing defense- this is a downside if they keep the same quality of rush defense.

Week 16 San fran 20th best rushing defense last year

Lynch and AP shouldnt even be in the equation if you are drafting Turner to be a keeper next year.

 

Now that's what I'm talking about! That's a great analysis man. It's gonna sting a bit to take Cadi after he sat on my bench all season (after spending a 3rd rounder on him) but I might just have to do it. The upside is definitely there, I can't deny that.

 

I guess it just comes to, if I want a safe pick with marginal upside, or a riskier pick with quit a bit more.

 

Thanks alot.

-E

[Razin 0]

In my big money, 10 team, 3 keeper fantasy fraft, I pick 5th. I'm torn on who to grab with my first pick (4th round).

 

My keepers are Shaun Alexander, Torry Holt, and Brandon Jacobs

 

QB/RB/RB/WR/WR/FLEX/TE/DEF/K

 

These are the available backs (please note I pick 5th and the first 4 need RB's).

 

Travis Henry

Maurice Jones Drew

Thomas Jones

Ced Benson

---------------------

Marshawn Lynch

Deuce McAllister

Cadi Williams

Adrian Peterson (MIN)

 

Assuming the top 4 will most likely be gone I'm looking at the bottom 4. My heart is telling me Lynch because of the age, young team, good hands, etc., but my head is telling me Deuce. I think Deuce will get almost as many carries, on a better team, with the GL looks. AP and Cadi are also options but I'm not too high on them and there situations. I also plan on taking Tuner around the 7th so I'm hoping he'll be a possible keeper next year (depending where he lands).

 

Give me some guidance!

 

if it were me, i'd take either adrian or cadi.

im not very high on lynch b/c i think his o-line is weak (it wasnt even good enough for a mcgahee, who i think was quite limited behind that same line). also, being a rookie in the division he plays (Mia--solid def; NE-solid def; Jets--decent def) doesnt bode well for his success--esp in light of the fact that losman is still young and their offense as a whole is still in the birthing stages.

I dont give deuce a whole lot of room for success either. I was listening to a discussion today on the radio talking about the Saints and the possibility that they were riding on high emotion last yr (i.e. Katrina). The radio show was saying that they did not expect the Saints to continue their dominant performance from last yr--and given their history i might just agree with them. As for deuce, i think of him like Fred Taylor. He's old, fairly brittle, and in danger of being replaced by a younger, stronger rb on his team. I know it is possible that NO could have success in the same manner as last yr, working with both deuce and bush, but i really expect them to being to pass the baton over to bush more this yr (just like i expect with MJD). So i'm not certain how many carries or goalline carries you should count on deuce for. I expect him to put up about 800 total yards and 7-8 tds.

i would seriously look at cadi if you dont intend on using this pick as one of your 3 keepers next yr. cadi had an extremely difficult schedule last yr and had a crappy qb as a diversion. this yr he has a new, more successful qb to force def's to protect the pass more, and even more crucial--he has a cake schedule this yr. i expect cadi to bounce back strong; plus the loss of alstott might bode very well for not taking as many goalline carries away from him anymore.

if you are hoping to use this pick as a keeper then i think adrian is a no brainer. hes a beast; the best rb that came out of the draft this yr. in 2-3 yrs i expect him to be a top 10 rb; maybe even a top 5. hes definitly worth consideration as a keeper, and i think even this yr he should be very valuable as a runner and receiving rb.

in summary, id stay away from deuce who is waning, and lynch who is in a tough division on a sub-par team, and id take adrian for the longhaul or cadi for the short term.

 

hope that is helpful.

 

p.s. this is only my 2nd real day of posting on this site, and i just caught on to how ppl. leave their links to their own posts in other ppl's posts. i can see how that is both helpful and annoying. i'll try to do my best to keep up with the ppl that take the time to leave meaningful posts on my pages.

 

http://www.fftodayforums.com/forum/index.p...howtopic=279887

[mike06 0]

id go with deuce if youre looking to win this yr. if youre looking for a possible big future boost then go with lynch, but buffalo scares me. id put my money on deuce in this one