Westbrook or Brady #2 overall?

[Darko M 0]

#1 is also considering Brady but I think he's going to go with LT. So, that leaves me with two options: Westbrook or Brady. I'm leaning towards Brady for the fact that all TDs, including passing TDs are worth 6 points. In 4 point per TD mocks I keep seeing Brady go anywhere from 4-8, so since we're getting 2 extra points per TD, if he scores just 30 TDs this year that's 60 extra points, which in my opinion moves him into contention for the #1 overall spot.

 

I am also assuming if I don't take Brady, he as well as Romo, Manning, and Brees will be long gone by my 2nd round pick. So, then I would have to target Palmer or Big Ben...

 

...but it is so hard to ignore Westbrook's production in a PPR league.

[RoadLizard 73]

Your logic is correct.... the 6pt TD passes, which I feel is WAY too much means you MUST get a strong QB and Brady is probably the best one of them. I like Westbrook too and its a tough call but I still say Brady.

 

Go for it.

[Exit 160 0]

Does any agree that Brady at #2 is a little too early. with Addai and Peterson still going to be on the board!

 

Your logic is correct.... the 6pt TD passes, which I feel is WAY too much means you MUST get a strong QB and Brady is probably the best one of them. I like Westbrook too and its a tough call but I still say Brady.

 

Go for it.

[nyjetsfan 0]

#1 is also considering Brady but I think he's going to go with LT. So, that leaves me with two options: Westbrook or Brady. I'm leaning towards Brady for the fact that all TDs, including passing TDs are worth 6 points. In 4 point per TD mocks I keep seeing Brady go anywhere from 4-8, so since we're getting 2 extra points per TD, if he scores just 30 TDs this year that's 60 extra points, which in my opinion moves him into contention for the #1 overall spot.

 

I am also assuming if I don't take Brady, he as well as Romo, Manning, and Brees will be long gone by my 2nd round pick. So, then I would have to target Palmer or Big Ben...

 

...but it is so hard to ignore Westbrook's production in a PPR league.

 

if you take brady your 1rb will be the likes of a thomas jones. is brady/ jones better than westbrook/palmer.

[Me_2006 14]

I go Westbrook, and if all those QBs are indeed gone by your second pick, I grab two top WRs on the turn in 2/3 or a top WR and Reggie Bush in the third if he's there. Any chance your leaguemates are scared off by Sjax and he falls to your second rounder? Someone on here talked about him going 17th overall, and if these guys all jump at QBs, you could have those two and a WR.

[hotgumbo1 12]

#1 is also considering Brady but I think he's going to go with LT. So, that leaves me with two options: Westbrook or Brady. I'm leaning towards Brady for the fact that all TDs, including passing TDs are worth 6 points. In 4 point per TD mocks I keep seeing Brady go anywhere from 4-8, so since we're getting 2 extra points per TD, if he scores just 30 TDs this year that's 60 extra points, which in my opinion moves him into contention for the #1 overall spot.

 

I am also assuming if I don't take Brady, he as well as Romo, Manning, and Brees will be long gone by my 2nd round pick. So, then I would have to target Palmer or Big Ben...

 

...but it is so hard to ignore Westbrook's production in a PPR league.

your post really solidfies your status on this bored.

Do some research on QBs who've repeated such previous year glory.

Go ahead and draft Brady and see what happens.

[BirdBradyBobbyOrr 0]

Your logic is correct.... the 6pt TD passes, which I feel is WAY too much means you MUST get a strong QB and Brady is probably the best one of them. I like Westbrook too and its a tough call but I still say Brady.

 

Go for it.

 

 

Why is 6 pts way too much? It's what TD's are worth. Just alter your draft accordingly and ... yup draft Brady.

 

I have the #2 pick and it's a no brainer for me to take Brady. Of course I'm a homer but no matter what I do I can't see Brady throwing for less then 4000 yards and 38 TD's. I can see him easily hitting 4200 and 40+ TD's. Those are better numbers then Westbrook will ever put up.

 

SIDENOTE - Assuming he's healthy I also think Peyton is going to have another HUGE year!

[Darko M 0]

if you take brady your 1rb will be the likes of a thomas jones. is brady/ jones better than westbrook/palmer.

 

Thomas Jones? I think there will be some solid talent at my 2.11 & 3.2 picks including:

 

Reggie Bush

McFadden

Mjd?

McGahee?

Graham?

Thomas Jones

 

In a PPR league the late 1st and 2nd round are going to be extremely WR heavy... When you factor in that it's a 6 point per pass TD league, which forces teams to jump on QBs early you have a lot of talented RBs falling into the late 2nd to the 4th round, so Thomas Jones will have a lot of company. Is a Brady/Bush combo better than a Westbrook/Palmer combo? I don't know.

 

And no, there is ZERO chance S.Jax falls out of the first round..I bet he still goes #6 or #7 at our draft this Sunday.

[TK0001 97]

Are RBs PPR as well? If so, I'd go with Westbrook. There are precious few backs who will produce consistently running and catching at the level of Westbrook (say, 2). Brady is coming off a career year, and every QB who has broken the TD record followed it up with a significant dropoff in production. I think the Pats will have some Superbowl hangover, and I don't think Belicheat will feel compelled to run up the score on everyone again this year. Also consider Brady's foot/ankle problems which may or may not be a factor.

 

Brady's still in the top 2 for QB's, the dropoff between him and say Palmer isn't as significant as the dropoff between Westbrook and Addai or whoever you have slotted at #3 RB. Again, all this is assuming your league is PPR for RB.

[Pegger 0]

This is a tough call. The extra 2 points per TD pass could be huge.

 

Here's my quick take on Brady - It's not possible to project the same sort of statistical production he had last year. After the Philly game where they went into a different nickle D to compensate things changed a bit. Other teams followed suite and games started getting tight. Also, Billy B must have watched the Superbowl tapes and wondering 'If I had a decent running game would the pass rush have been forced to be honest?'. It's a good question and this year they are loaded with fresh runningbacks (Maroney, Morris, and now Jordan). My guess is that they will run a lot more than many fantasy owners are expecting.

 

I think the 30 passing TD is a real good benchmark, but with that being said you have to compare the other QBs around the 30TD mark (Manning, Romo, and Brees-who I love this year), where you could get them, and compare to what kind of comparable RB you can get in the 2nd or later rounds.

 

Go with Westy or maybe AP, who should also be looked at here. Here's my argument for AP:

 

Last year AP got 1341 yards, 12 TDs on 238 carries. That works out to 14.75 rushes and 84 yards per game. That includes the few games he missed due to injury late in the year. Going into this season Taylor, so he should average more touches. Let's say his TD% and YPC are around the same as last year and he averages 20 carries per game (which is reasonable). His projected stats would be:

320 carries

1800 yards

16 TDs

 

Of course that doesn't include any receptions he might get and it doesn't factor in the injury bug. The interesting point about the injury bug is that whatever you factor in for AP you should factor in with Brian Westbrook. Many forget, but last year he missed a game due to injury as well and he has never played in a full 16 games a season throughout his entire career.

 

Some food for thought.

[hotgumbo1 12]

Thomas Jones? I think there will be some solid talent at my 2.11 & 3.2 picks including:

 

Reggie Bush

McFadden

Mjd?

McGahee?

Graham?

Thomas Jones

 

In a PPR league the late 1st and 2nd round are going to be extremely WR heavy... When you factor in that it's a 6 point per pass TD league, which forces teams to jump on QBs early you have a lot of talented RBs falling into the late 2nd to the 4th round, so Thomas Jones will have a lot of company. Is a Brady/Bush combo better than a Westbrook/Palmer combo? I don't know.

 

And no, there is ZERO chance S.Jax falls out of the first round..I bet he still goes #6 or #7 at our draft this Sunday.

Ask Peyton Manning what he's done since throwing for 489,000TDs a few years back? Ask the same of Dan Fouts etc. They always fall back to earth the following year. Sure they remain true fire #1 QBs but the difference between the top QB's and bottom of top 10 is 5-6 points each given week. Just not enough to past up the heart and soul of a FF team...the RB.

 

You do nothing but weaken your team when you pass up a true workhorse RB like SJackson, or Westy or LT and take a QB first. Are you willing to make any of your above mentiond RBs (alot in committee or unproven) the workhorse on your FF team? Case in point.. last year I took Fred Taylor in the 7th round while MJD was taken in the 2nd. MJD only scored a mere FF 29 total points MORE than Taylor at season's end. Another example... I took Matt Hasselback in the 6th round while as usual someone took PManning in the first. Manning only threw 3 more TDs than Hass.

 

BTW I took Westy and laughed all the way to another FF championship.

[sanders 0]

The fact that passing TDs are worth 6 points makes no difference whatsoever.

 

You have to look at how many RBs and QBs will be drafted between your first and second pick.

 

Look at the combined points for Brady and the RB you will likely get at pick 2.

Look at the combined points for Westbrook (you should take AP) and the QB you will likely get at pick 2.

 

The one with the higher fantasy total wins. You also have to take in the risk factor too though - are there a bunch of RBs at the same level where you pick in round 2? if so you really aren't worried that you will really miss the boat by taking brady first. What Qbs will be gone? Brady, Manning, Romo, maybe Brees.

 

Let's say you take Brady - you'd be lucky to get Jones-Drew or Larry Johnson if your super lucky with pick 2 but are more likely to end up with Jamal Lewis or Ryan Grant as your #1 RB - ouch

 

If you take Adrian Peterson or Westbrook with pick one and take a Qb with pick two you end up with maybe Brees but definitely Palmer.

 

I think that RB then QB is the way to go. You even have the possibility of waiting to pick 3 to take your QB and end up with Palmer still which would allow you to take a top WR or another RB with pick 2.

 

Taking Brady and #2 I don't think is wise - if he does anything but put up 45+ TDs you take a big hit.

[Darko M 0]

your post really solidfies your status on this bored.

Do some research on QBs who've repeated such previous year glory.

Go ahead and draft Brady and see what happens.

 

I've done all the research and I've seen all the statistics. But I think most people agree the Patriots are a very special team. Randy Moss may be one of the greatest wide outs to ever play the game. Brady has how many Super Bowl rings? Their coach is a genius. And they were undefeated last year. Statistics don't always tell the whole story, and in a league that rewards 6 points for a TD a reliable, proven QB is a necessity.

 

Last year Brady had 300+ more points than the 10th ranked QB, Kurt Warner. If Brady threw 15 fewer TDs he would still have 200 points more than the 10th QB. Last year LT and Westbrook had about 130 more points than the 10th ranked RB, E. Graham.

 

I'm still torn, but to dismiss Brady as a 1st round selection just because statistics show QBs don't repeat huge years makes you sound like the rookie my friend. It also sounds like you're forgetting that a bum named Daunte Culpepper put up insane numbers with Moss a few years ago.

 

FYI: My league gives 1 points for every reception.

[polecatt 403]

IT's a tough call. If Brady is close to what he was last year then this is a no brainer. I don't htink he will have as big a drop off as many seem to think. The reason is that him and Randy Moss are just so tough to stop and Welker in his spot. There is only a small handfull of teams that have the personell to stop it. What are the Jets and Dolphins going to do to stop them? They went undefeated in the regular season off that combo and Belichek knows this. If people think he won't have something to proove this year after losing the Super Bowl you are kidding yourselves. He will be as irritable as a hornet this year. I do think Brady will see some of a drop off but I think 35 TDs is a guarantee and 40 is no less than a 50% chance. In a PPR league Westbrook is a good bet but I just don't know if he has the upside of Brady. The Pats won't lay off this year they do the same as last year. It is just a matter of what teams can stop them.

[Frankie Valiant 0]

your post really solidfies your status on this bored.

Do some research on QBs who've repeated such previous year glory.

Go ahead and draft Brady and see what happens.

He was only expecting 30 Td's from Brady this year! so what does that have to do with last year?....think about reading a post first before responding with insults...

[ERZER 0]

Does any agree that Brady at #2 is a little too early. with Addai and Peterson still going to be on the board!

 

I tend to agree, I don't understand what Peterson wouldn't be getting the looks prior to Westbrook and/or Brady.

[Darko M 0]

I did the calculations using projected #s with my league point values. Obviously this is not exactly scientific, but what part of FF is?

 

1.2 Tom Brady .. 424pts

2.11 Reggie Bush .. 208 (The best ppr RB avail at that selection)

3.2 Torry Holt .. 228 (One of a few top 10 WR options that I think would be available)

= 860pts

or

 

1.2 Westbrook .. 290pts

2.11 Andre Johnson .. 231 (I assumed 5 or so WRs would be gone by my 2nd pick, for my league CBS projects he'll be the 6th best WR. Went with receiver because Brees, Romo, and Manning will most likely be gone.)

3.2 Carson Palmer .. 328 (Have to take him there because based on my projections Palmer and Big Ben will probably go before my late 4th round selection...leaving me with the likes of Cutler, Favre, Anderson)

= 849pts

 

So, after we add up the points we see they both basically a wash. Again not scientific, but it's not as lopsided as some of you seem to think.

 

LT projected: 322

Bush (10th ranked) projected: 208

Difference: 114

 

Brady projected: 424

Cutler (10th ranked) projected: 289

Difference: 135

[Darko M 0]

I tend to agree, I don't understand what Peterson wouldn't be getting the looks prior to Westbrook and/or Brady.

 

1 point per reception is why Westbrook has received most of my attention. He's going #3 if I don't take him. And if I take AP or Westbrook at #2, Brady is going #3. And that's assuming Brady doesn't go #1.

[hotgumbo1 12]

I've done all the research and I've seen all the statistics. But I think most people agree the Patriots are a very special team. Randy Moss may be one of the greatest wide outs to ever play the game. Brady has how many Super Bowl rings? Their coach is a genius. And they were undefeated last year. Statistics don't always tell the whole story, and in a league that rewards 6 points for a TD a reliable, proven QB is a necessity.

 

Last year Brady had 300+ more points than the 10th ranked QB, Kurt Warner. If Brady threw 15 fewer TDs he would still have 200 points more than the 10th QB. Last year LT and Westbrook had about 130 more points than the 10th ranked RB, E. Graham.

 

I'm still torn, but to dismiss Brady as a 1st round selection just because statistics show QBs don't repeat huge years makes you sound like the rookie my friend. It also sounds like you're forgetting that a bum named Daunte Culpepper put up insane numbers with Moss a few years ago.

 

FYI: My league gives 1 points for every reception.

My point exactly! You just validated inconsitency in the QB position. Daunte threw 20 TDs or less 5 of the 8 years in the league. You're willing to take a QB with these stats. About Brady... I agree he's a #1 tiered QB. But in the first round is a waste. Stats listed below. I'd rather take value with Hasselbeck and Bulger or McNabb in the later rounds.

 

Daunte

2007 Oakland Raiders 7 186 108 58.1 26.6 1,331 7.2 190.1 5 2.7 5 2.7 59 17 3 21 130 78.0

 

2006 Miami Dolphins 4 134 81 60.4 33.5 929 6.9 232.2 2 1.5 3 2.2 52 11 1 21 150 77.0

 

2005 Minnesota Vikings 7 216 139 64.4 30.9 1,564 7.2 223.4 6 2.8 12 5.6 68 16 2 31 169 72.0

 

2004 Minnesota Vikings 16 548 379 69.2 34.2 4,717 8.6 294.8 39 7.1 11 2.0 82T 63 18 46 238 110.9

 

2003 Minnesota Vikings 14 454 295 65.0 32.4 3,479 7.7 248.5 25 5.5 11 2.4 59T 41 10 37 196 96.4

 

2002 Minnesota Vikings 16 549 333 60.7 34.3 3,853 7.0 240.8 18 3.3 23 4.2 61 48 9 47 244 75.3

 

2001 Minnesota Vikings 11 366 235 64.2 33.3 2,612 7.1 237.5 14 3.8 13 3.6 57T 34 5 33 186 83.3

 

2000 Minnesota Vikings 16 474 297 62.7 29.6 3,937 8.3 246.1 33 7.0 16 3.4 78T 56 13 34 181 98.0

 

Brady

2007 New England Patriots 16 16 398 578 68.9 4,806 8.3 50 8 21 128 117.2 37 98 2.6 2 6 4

2006 New England Patriots 16 16 319 516 61.8 3,529 6.8 24 12 26 175 87.9 49 102 2.1 0 12 4

2005 New England Patriots 16 16 334 530 63.0 4,110 7.8 26 14 26 188 92.3 27 89 3.3 1 4 3

2004 New England Patriots 16 16 288 474 60.8 3,692 7.8 28 14 26 162 92.6 43 28 0.7 0 7 5

2003 New England Patriots 16 16 317 527 60.2 3,620 6.9 23 12 32 219 85.9 42 63 1.5 1 13 5

2002 New England Patriots 16 16 373 601 62.1 3,764 6.3 28 14 31 190 85.7 42 110 2.6 1 11 5

2001 New England Patriots 15 14 264 413 63.9 2,843 6.9 18 12 41 216 86.5 36 43 1.2 0 12 3

2000 New England Patriots 1 0 1 3 33.3 6 2.0 0 0 0 0 42.4 -- -- -- -- -- --

[llano 0]

You've got to go with a RB -- Westbrook, ADP, or Addai. It doesn't matter as much as you think that your league gives 6 for QB passing TDs. It does mean QBs matter somewhat more, but the 6 points is all relative -- every QB's passing TDs count for 6. You're right to assume that Brady will come down to like 30 TDs (just ask all those people who drafted Manning in 2005), but that means that there may be as many as 10 QBs in the points-per game ball park of a 30-TD performance (last year, the 10th best FF QB threw 27 TDs, after that there was a significant drop-off).

 

Assuming that your league requires one QB, 2 RBs, and 2 WRs, running backs are still relatively more valuable because of the much more significant drop-off in performance between tier 1 and tier 2 RBs, and definitely between tier 2 and tier 3 RBs, and generally tier 4 RBS are worthless. This is also why the post comparing Tom Brady, Reggie Bush, and Torry Holt with Westbrook, Johnson, and Palmer is flawed. You need to play 2 RBs and 2 WRs. You need to game it out past 3 players to 5. Once you do that, you'll see why so many people encourage RB-RB or at least RB-x-RB. This year, I'll admit things are a bit weird with so many questions marks in all three tiers of RBs, adding so much uncertainty (and you don't want to pick a bust in your early rounds, that's for sure). Still, I've had years where due to injury or going away from the RB-RB drafting strategies I've been left without a decent 2 RB combo. Unless you get lucky and have a crazy breakout year out of one of your receivers (a la Braylon Edwards or Marques Colston 06) or you pick up the rare lucky RB on waivers (Dominic Davis) or your longshot pulls through, it's very hard to win.

 

Having said all of that, if your league has a history of drafting QBs early (because everyone else uses flawed logic, as well), and your chance of getting a tier 1 or tier 2 QB in Round 4 or later is nil, then drafting a QB early might make sense

[hotgumbo1 12]

You've got to go with a RB -- Westbrook, ADP, or Addai. It doesn't matter as much as you think that your league gives 6 for QB passing TDs. It does mean QBs matter somewhat more, but the 6 points is all relative -- every QB's passing TDs count for 6. You're right to assume that Brady will come down to like 30 TDs (just ask all those people who drafted Manning in 2005), but that means that there may be as many as 10 QBs in the points-per game ball park of a 30-TD performance (last year, the 10th best FF QB threw 27 TDs, after that there was a significant drop-off).

 

Assuming that your league requires one QB, 2 RBs, and 2 WRs, running backs are still relatively more valuable because of the much more significant drop-off in performance between tier 1 and tier 2 RBs, and definitely between tier 2 and tier 3 RBs, and generally tier 4 RBS are worthless. This is also why the post comparing Tom Brady, Reggie Bush, and Torry Holt with Westbrook, Johnson, and Palmer is flawed. You need to play 2 RBs and 2 WRs. You need to game it out past 3 players to 5. Once you do that, you'll see why so many people encourage RB-RB or at least RB-x-RB. This year, I'll admit things are a bit weird with so many questions marks in all three tiers of RBs, adding so much uncertainty (and you don't want to pick a bust in your early rounds, that's for sure). Still, I've had years where due to injury or going away from the RB-RB drafting strategies I've been left without a decent 2 RB combo. Unless you get lucky and have a crazy breakout year out of one of your receivers (a la Braylon Edwards or Marques Colston 06) or you pick up the rare lucky RB on waivers (Dominic Davis) or your longshot pulls through, it's very hard to win.

 

Having said all of that, if your league has a history of drafting QBs early (because everyone else uses flawed logic, as well), and your chance of getting a tier 1 or tier 2 QB in Round 4 or later is nil, then drafting a QB early might make sense

[Filthy Fernandez 0]

Brady #2 overall. Definitely a reach there bud. Go with Westbrook if #1 grabs LT. PPR + Westy is pretty damn consistent.

[joeshushu 51]

 

 

 

I had Westy and LT last year and lost in the first round of the playoffs (I was the No. 1 seed) I had Brett as my QB. I lost because of a dued named Ryan Grant (undrafted). My point it's really a crap shoot.