Luck and Skill in Fantasy Football

[Kilroy 0]

last night, at 9pm, I was down by 20 and sure to lose. BAD LUCK was the only explanation.

 

THEN

 

DeAngelo Williams ripped off 2 4th quarter TDs to go along with his 180yards and I SKILLFULLY beat my opponent by 10.

 

Best post in this thread.

[Dr.Grimm 0]

It's more of me giving you a hard time than anything else bro. Without looking at your current roster, you had a tough year, I am not sure trading away first rounders for Sproles is a good deal necessarily, but you do and seem happy with it, I am happy with with it, so it is a win-win. Part of fantasy is talkin trash right. Just blowin you crap dude. My personal view of Sporoles is that he won't be an every down back, he will at best split time with someone else, but splitting time could mean Charles Johnson or D. Williams numbers too. He does have skills.

 

That's cool. I was just wondering if their is some nuances I am missing. I don't mind the trash talking at all. In fact, I like it. I flat out sucked this year in that league. I feel prey to something I normally do not do, playing matchups. The games I lost that were close, I simply shot myself in the foot by not playing the same players each week and trying to play matchups. A QB on my bench outscored my starter almost every week and I never played the right one. Excuses are a like a-holes though, everyone has one. I failed bigtime this year in that league.

[Kilroy 0]

I failed bigtime this year in that league.

 

Only because you asked for feedback on your trade - shipping 2 first round picks in exchange for Darren Sproles is/was a bad, bad move.

 

I don't normally buy into the thought that someone is "too small" to be a full time RB in the NFL, but in the case of Sproles it's likely true.

He's a special teams/3rd down/change-of-pace back and I doubt he ever becomes more than that. Whenever it is that the Chargers move on from Tomlinson, it's likely they will draft or sign a free agent RB to take his place while Sproles holds onto the same role he has now.

 

Trading even 1 first round pick for a player like Sproles is a lot to give up. IMO he's worth more like a 3rd, maybe a second if you really feel like you need him and can't get the other owner to budge.

 

Just thought I'd mention it to ya so you don't have other owners try and take advantage of you in future trades. Good luck with the league.

[IndyFan 2]

Lot's of luck involved. Went 13 and 1 regular season and out in the first round of the playoffs with this team :

 

Warner (9th round)

LT (protected)

Thomas Jones (3rd round)

R Moss (protected)

Wayne (2nd round)

Boldin (acquired thru trade)

Keller (waiver wire)

Bironas (11th round)

Tenn (6th round)

 

Schaub (10th round)

Barber (1st round)

Hightower (waiver wire)

L Moore (waiver wire)

V Jackson (7th round)

Shockey (5th round)

Washington (11th round)

 

Warner didn't need to throw second half with two defensive tds, LT was mediocre, NYJ refused to give TJ the ball

despite his effective running, Wayne just sux this year, Boldin had a rare off day, and Bironas had no fg attempts.

[Demon 0]

There is tons of luck involved, but there always is. This year, in the two leagues I play in, I am second in total points and 11th out of 12 in each league. This is the first year in both leagues that I am not in the playoffs. I had heard people ###### online before about losing to the best team every week, but I had never seen it happen. Almost every week I had the second highest points scored, and lost to the highest scored. Oh well, next year will be better. I cannot have that much bad luck again, right?

 

here are my teams for reference

 

QB Drew Brees

WR Reggie Wayne

WR Jerricho Cotchery

RB LaDainian Tomlinson

RB Steve Slaton

TE Dallas Clark

W/R Peyton Hillis

BN Willis McGahee

BN Braylon Edwards

BN Nate Washington

BN Reggie Bush

BN Ray Rice

BN Torry Holt

 

K Jeff Reed

(Ind - DEF)

(Chi - DEF)

 

and

 

 

QB Philip Rivers

WR Reggie Wayne

RB Willie Parker

TE Antonio Gates

W/R Marques Colston

W/R Pierre Thomas

BN Reggie Bush

BN Steve Smith

BN LenDale White

BN David Garrard

BN Santonio Holmes

 

K Neil Rackers

(Ind - DEF)

(GB - DEF)

[Dr.Grimm 0]

Only because you asked for feedback on your trade - shipping 2 first round picks in exchange for Darren Sproles is/was a bad, bad move.

 

I don't normally buy into the thought that someone is "too small" to be a full time RB in the NFL, but in the case of Sproles it's likely true.

He's a special teams/3rd down/change-of-pace back and I doubt he ever becomes more than that. Whenever it is that the Chargers move on from Tomlinson, it's likely they will draft or sign a free agent RB to take his place while Sproles holds onto the same role he has now.

 

Trading even 1 first round pick for a player like Sproles is a lot to give up. IMO he's worth more like a 3rd, maybe a second if you really feel like you need him and can't get the other owner to budge.

 

Just thought I'd mention it to ya so you don't have other owners try and take advantage of you in future trades. Good luck with the league.

Thanks for the tip/help. Time will tell just how bad I got raped I guess.

[Kilroy 0]

Thanks for the tip/help. Time will tell just how bad I got raped I guess.

 

Yea, maybe Sproles will get more time than I'm thinking, but we'll see. The thing in dynasty leagues is you have to look ahead at what you project a players production to be in another 1-3 years when dealing for them. I realize you did that with Sproles, but I think you're expecting a bit much from him. You also shouldn't deal for a guy by giving away what you think he'd be worth if he maxed his potential. You need to find an even balance between his current worth and what you hope/expect him to become.

 

I would say that for a player in Sproles position you would need to realize that by the time LT is gone, the Chargers will likely have another RB to replace him other than Sproles. Even if Sproles got the opportunity for one season, he's likely to have some strong competition for the starting spot within a year.

 

For two first round picks I'd think you should have been able to get a RB like Ryan Grant if one RB is what you were gunning for by trading the picks. It all depends on how high the picks look like they'd be and team needs of course. Lots of factors can come into play when trading in dynasty leagues. Makes the trading a lot more fun though when compared to redraft leagues.

[De Novo 0]

First 5 rounds in a redraft league = luck.

Last 10+ rounds = skill.

I couldn't disagree more with the first 5 rounds being luck. The warning signs were obvious for teams that took Carson Palmer, Derek Anderson, Steven Jackson, Larry Johnson, Joseph Addai, McGahee, Maroney, Darren McFadden, Edge, Willie Parker, TO, Ocho Stinko, Braylon Edwards, Torry Holt, Driver, Marvin Harrison, and others in the 1st 5 rounds this year. But they did it anyway. They didn't get unlucky. They got what could have been expected most of the time. For every risky pick that pans out (Anquan Boldin) there are at least 2 or 3 that don't. It's more skill than luck early.

[posty 2,697]

Fantasy football = 100% luck...

[Dr.Grimm 0]

Fantasy football = 100% luck...

 

But what if I give 110%.............

[gemynd 0]

I couldn't disagree more with the first 5 rounds being luck. The warning signs were obvious for teams that took Carson Palmer, Derek Anderson, Steven Jackson, Larry Johnson, Joseph Addai, McGahee, Maroney, Darren McFadden, Edge, Willie Parker, TO, Ocho Stinko, Braylon Edwards, Torry Holt, Driver, Marvin Harrison, and others in the 1st 5 rounds this year. But they did it anyway. They didn't get unlucky. They got what could have been expected most of the time. For every risky pick that pans out (Anquan Boldin) there are at least 2 or 3 that don't. It's more skill than luck early.

 

I do not disagree about the warning signs with the players you list. All I'm saying is that everybody knows the best players in the league. Every league had Adrian Peterson go in the first round. Every league had Tom Brady (or possibly Peyton) as the first QB off the board. Any schmo can pick up a magazine and draft intelligently in the first few rounds. There is no real skill involved (although those that read the signs better apply some skill). However, the player that drafted Brady was unlucky.

 

The person who picks up solid backups and big upside players in later rounds are based more on skill.

 

I did not mean to imply that the first few rounds was 100% luck and the last several rounds were 100% skill.

[Dallas_Empire 0]

The skill part is drafting talented players with a good QB and solid offensive line. Avoiding most RBs in bad situations and guys with injury problems and older than 30 years old. Getting guys like Chris Johnson because he was drafted on a run heavy team and he had a super fast combine time was smart and skillful. It was pretty obvious that certain guys would strtuggl;e. Guys like LJ ohco, holt, and Sjax had bit signs of trouble in their future year yet people still picked them early. I think the biggest part of the skill is avoiding guys who have these question marks on them before the season. Guys who are hurt or have bad offensive lines. Guys who hold out or guys who have tough schedules. The rest is just luck and luck is a large part of ff.

[jerryskids 6,795]

I couldn't disagree more with the first 5 rounds being luck. The warning signs were obvious for teams that took Carson Palmer, Derek Anderson, Steven Jackson, Larry Johnson, Joseph Addai, McGahee, Maroney, Darren McFadden, Edge, Willie Parker, TO, Ocho Stinko, Braylon Edwards, Torry Holt, Driver, Marvin Harrison, and others in the 1st 5 rounds this year. But they did it anyway. They didn't get unlucky. They got what could have been expected most of the time. For every risky pick that pans out (Anquan Boldin) there are at least 2 or 3 that don't. It's more skill than luck early.

Really? What were Braylon's warning signs? Anderson's? TO's? Parker's? Holt's? It is easy to type revisionist history.

 

I don't disagree that looking at a player's situation is a factor, I tried to pick those who weren't terribly affected by that going into the draft.

[TheBlade 3]

Really? What were Braylon's warning signs? Anderson's? TO's? Parker's? Holt's? It is easy to type revisionist history.

 

I don't disagree that looking at a player's situation is a factor, I tried to pick those who weren't terribly affected by that going into the draft.

I normally agree with your viewpoint, 'skids. But, in looking at the list you provided, there were huge question marks surrounding at least three of the guys you mentioned.

 

Would Anderson be able to re-produce anything close to what he did last season? I'm saying this as someone who really believed in Anderson after last season, but given where people were taking him it was too big of a risk imo and it just wasn't worth it.

 

As goes Anderson this year, so goes Braylon. He had one big year last year after two mediocre ones (I realize that those were his first two in the league), and has a terrible tendency to drop the d@mn football. I also believed that Braylon could be a top WR, but looking objectively if the guy throwing the rock has question marks, his targets by default have to have question marks.

 

I considered Holt a HUGE risk, albeit with some very high potential reward, going into the draft. He's the type of guy that I'd rather let someone else drink the kool aid because to get him, I think you'd have to draft him higher than I'm comfortable with.

 

Parker had some questions as well, albeit much lesser than the ones already mentioned. There were many who thought that Mendenhall might steal some of his thunder. But, of the ones you mentioned, Parker and definitely TO were prolly the ones that were most and left one wondering wtf happened.

 

JMHO.

[Gepetto 1,368]

For those of you that think it's all luck, why do you seek information, opinion, and/or advice on this forum?

[De Novo 0]

Really? What were Braylon's warning signs? Anderson's? TO's? Parker's? Holt's? It is easy to type revisionist history.

 

I don't disagree that looking at a player's situation is a factor, I tried to pick those who weren't terribly affected by that going into the draft.

Braylon's warning signs were his offseason heel injury, Anderson's inexperience (great season but there have been a lot of 1-hit wonders), his tendency to drop passes and/or fumble is not a new issue, just one that has gotten worse. His and the Browns' poor performance in the preseason (I usually don't put much stock in veteran performance but for younger players, I do). He had 1 catch in the preseason and the Lions blew out the Browns.

 

Anderson's were the QB controversy in the offseason and preseason, his concussion in the preseason that limited him to like 1 game, and quite simply his relative inexperience. Lots of QBs have strung together a dozen very good games. The contract they gave him didn't show a lot of dedication as their franchise QB and I put some weight into that.

 

TO is 35 years old and a headcase. It took him less than 2 years to implode in Philly, and this was his 3rd season in Dallas. He's ended the season unhappily the last 2 seasons. He (purpotedly) attempted suiced less than 2 years ago. And he was still running his mouth about Donovan, so he's no changed man.

 

Willie Parker has a lot of mileage in the last 2-3 years, almost no touchdowns last season, suffered a season-ending leg injury late last season, lost his big play ability and wasn't busting any long runs like he used to, and they drafted rookie RB Rashard Mendenhall.

 

Torry Holt? He's 32, which historically is a bad age for WRs. Factor that with: his knee had bothered him during all of 2007, his back bothered him over the summer, and the O-line was decimated, the Rams were expected to be terrible, and his yards per catch have been on a slow decline.

 

I'm not suggesting massive warning signs always result in poor performance because they don't, but the above warning signs were staring you straight in the face. If you avoid unnecessary risk in the first 5 rounds, that is a skill. That's not being "lucky."

[Dallas_Empire 0]

Really? What were Braylon's warning signs? Anderson's? TO's? Parker's? Holt's? It is easy to type revisionist history.

 

I don't disagree that looking at a player's situation is a factor, I tried to pick those who weren't terribly affected by that going into the draft.

 

 

Parker was thought to be a victim of Mendenhall and the vulture thing. Everyone with a brain knew the Browns and Anderson were a one hit wonder and Braylon was gonna drop back down. Holt plays with a horrible offensive line and a Rb that was a holdout. All the players you listed were avoided by me in all drafts with the exception of T.O. I did not see any signs about T.O. and while having a down year he is still a stud and one can't predict romo missing three games.

[Dallas_Empire 0]

For those of you that think it's all luck, why do you seek information, opinion, and/or advice on this forum?

 

 

I am not here for advice, I just like to piss people off.

[De Novo 0]

definitely TO were prolly the ones that were most and left one wondering wtf happened.

I wouldn't call it shocking. TO is 35 years old, and a headcase. It took him less than 2 years to implode in Philly, and this was his 3rd season in Dallas. I'm not saying I wouldn't have drafted him but taking him in the 2nd round was a big risk. Players like Fitzgerald, Moss, Reggie Wayne were much safer bets with similar or bigger payoffs.

 

I just wouldn't draft a guy in the 2nd round when there is reason to be nervous about him getting suspended mid-season or committing suicide.

[TheBlade 3]

I wouldn't call it shocking. TO is 35 years old, and a headcase. It took him less than 2 years to implode in Philly, and this was his 3rd season in Dallas. I'm not saying I wouldn't have drafted him but taking him in the 2nd round was a big risk. Players like Fitzgerald, Moss, Reggie Wayne were much safer bets with similar or bigger payoffs.

 

I just wouldn't draft a guy in the 2nd round when there is reason to be nervous about him getting suspended mid-season or committing suicide.

I totally agree with you on this, but he had the fewest legitimate signs that he would disappoint people. I tend to get real leery of people at such a late stage in their career. I was very glad to not be in a position to draft LT this year because you couldn't really pass him up if he wasn't taken 1 or 2, and I've been scared since he set the TD record that he was only a couple of seasons away from becoming normal. I obviously just didn't know when that was going to be and was glad that I wasn't put into a position where I felt obligated to take him or regret it for all eternity.

 

Personally I drafted Fitz and then Wayne coming back in the next round (I kept Gore, and then drafted them 1-2). Wayne has performed as expected, but he's been far from a bust this year and has the potential of going for 10/150/2 on any given Sunday.

[IAMWood 6]

Wayne has the potential of going for 10/150/2 on any given Sunday.

 

This Sunday! This Sunday! This Sunday! This Sunday!