**NCAA Basketball Bubble Talk- 2/17**

[Fumbleweed 555]

This week is our third Bubble Talk for this February. It's just a good way for those of us who love college basketball to discuss the drama between now and Selection Sunday, which takes place in exactly 26 days. Conference tournaments get underway in just two weeks, so crunch time is inching closer. Here are my projections as of today...obviously, a lot will change between now and 26 days from now, but the analysis is a process, so here goes:

 

Conferences that only have a shot at one bid (13): America East, Atlantic Sun, Big Sky, Big South, Big West, Ivy, Mid-Eastern, Northeast, Ohio Valley, Patriot, Southland, Summit, SWAC.

 

ACC (6): North Carolina, Duke, Clemson, Wake Forest, Florida State, Boston College

 

The first five here look fairly secure for now, but Boston College squeaks in this week, getting the nod over Virginia Tech. In reality, Tech, BC, and Maryland may be fighting for the sixth bid here for the rest of the season and it may go back and forth amongst the three of them...particularly Tech and BC. Miami has better computer numbers than all of those teams and played UNC tough this past weekend, but a 4-7 conference record isn't good...they'll need to get hot to get back in the mix.

 

Atlantic Ten (2): Xavier, Dayton

 

Dayton's resume continues to strengthen making this now an almost surefire two-bid league. Temple has become the only other team with an at-large shot...they will need to win nearly everything from here on out, though, to get serious consideration.

 

Big East (8): Connecticut, Pittsburgh, Louisville, Marquette, Villanova, Syracuse, West Virginia, Providence

 

First five obviously are strong here...Syracuse and West Virginia look good, too, as long as they don't implode in the next three weeks. Providence is an interesting team. Their computer numbers and SOS are terrible, but how can a team not get a bid with an 8-5 record in the Big East? Answer: they can't ...for now. The Friars' toughest conference games are ahead of them, so if they want to keep their spot in the dance, they'll have to earn it. Cincinnati remains in the mix for an 8th or...gulp...ninth bid for now as well.

 

Big 12 (4): Oklahoma, Kansas, Missouri, Texas

 

You've got the "big three" in OU, Kansas, and Missouri...and then you've got a big mess, still. Texas stays in the field for now, but they are just narrowly getting in at this point and need to start winning consecutive games. Kansas State and Nebraska are in the mix, but need to win 10 conference games to be considered, I think, given their soft computer numbers. Oklahoma State has better computer numbers/RPI than those two teams, but can't be counted in due to the way they've played in conference so far. This conference is pretty much a mess and a lot is yet to be determined. Baylor and A&M can afford no more conference losses if they have March aspirations.

 

Big Ten (5): Michigan State, Purdue, Illinois, Ohio State, Minnesota

 

Don't look now, but Wisconsin is making a case to get themselves back into the field, and the Badgers just narrowly miss getting in this week. Another solid week for them and they'll be in the group above by next Tuesday. Meanwhile, Minnesota is playing with fire a bit and needs to win more games from here on out than they lose. There's still hope for Penn State and Michigan, certainly, but trading wins and losses won't cut it for them, either. The first four teams noted above are looking solid at this point.

 

Colonial (1-2): Virginia Commenwealth/Northeastern/George Mason

 

In order for the Colonial to get a second possible bid, one of the three teams above needs to separate itself from the other two by winning all of their remaining games. I've been saying that for two weeks now, and yet inconsistency amongst the three continues to be a hallmark. If that doesn't change this week, the Colonial becomes a lock for one bid only by next week's report.

 

Conference USA (1-2): Memphis

 

As has been the case the last few years, C-USA is Memphis and then a bunch of NIT-caliber teams. It is becoming conceivable that a second team could rise up and become NCAA tournament-worthy or that a second team could win the conference tournament...but for right now, it's likely to be Memphis only unless the second scenario becomes real in mid-March. One team that may be emerging, however, is UAB. Their computer numbers are good...they just need to be the clear-cut #2 team in the league when the standings go final to have a good shot.

 

Horizon (1-2): Butler

 

Butler's probably a lock for the tourney, so it's probably just a matter of whether or not they win the conference tournament in determining how many bids the Horizon holds. Wisconsin-Green Bay had a bad week last week, so they're probably done in terms of getting any at-large consideration.

 

Metro Atlantic (1-2): Siena

 

Siena has an RPI in the 30s and is 15-1 in this conference, so they are looking like an at-large team to me right now if they keep winning. Another loss or two in the regular season could really damage that. Niagara has a solid team, too, but will need to win out and then lose to Siena in the conference tourney final to get an at-large look. If Niagara doesn't get an NCAA bid, I certainly hope the NIT doesn't overlook their body of work.

 

Mid-American (1-2): Buffalo/Miami-Ohio

 

Much like the at-large chances of teams in the Colonial, the at-large hopes for Miami-Ohio and Buffalo are on life support. In order to have any shots, all wins between now and their conference tourney final are pretty much mandatory.

 

Missouri Valley (1-2): Northern Iowa/Illinois State/Creighton

 

The MVC has gotten multiple bids a lot in recent years, but this crop of teams lacks a true power hitter. Northern Iowa has a great conference record...Illinois St. was great out of conference...but, the team right now who looks most positioned to make a run at an at-large bid is Creighton. If Creighton or Illinois State can somehow win the regular season MVC title outright, they'll get a look. Otherwise, this may be a one-bid league for the first time in a while.

 

Mountain West (3): Utah, San Diego State, Brigham Young

 

So, where are all those former MVC and C-USA bids going? Right here. The Mountain West is threatening to become a BCS conference in both football and basketball and while this list stays at three teams this week, the conference is solid. Don't be stunned in March if four slip into the tourney. For now, UNLV remains just outside of bid territory while the other three teams strengthened their case again this past week.

 

Pac-10 (5): UCLA, Washington, California, Arizona State, Arizona

 

Five bids again this week for the Pac-10, but the fifth team in changed as Arizona's surge has put them in the field for now while USC slides out, having fallen to 6-6 in the conference. Certainly, USC could get back in the mix, but getting to ten wins is a must for them in conference and some tough games are ahead. The other four teams above are looking pretty strong at this point, even though UCLA is coming off a bad week.

 

SEC (4): Louisiana State, South Carolina, Tennessee, Kentucky

 

Kentucky gets in by the skin of their teeth this week, edging out a Florida team that may be in some trouble. UK, Florida, and South Carolina are realistically fighting for two bids at the moment as I don't think the SEC can find a fifth bid when all is said and done. Mississippi State's chances got hurt big time last week and they will have to get really hot from this point forward to get in. As of now, only LSU and Tennessee are standing on solid ground. Everyone else needs to win, and win some more.

 

Southern (1-2): Davidson

 

Davidson's computer numbers are weakening, but it's still hard to see the committee leaving them out after all they accomplished last year with a similar team. Bubble teams everywhere certainly hope they win their conference tourney as that would keep this a one-bid league for sure.

 

Sun Belt (1-2): Arkansas-Little Rock/Western Kentucky

 

Almost certainly a one-bid league, but the top two teams bear a little bit of watching in case one can win out from here. Chances of getting an at-large out of this duo, however, are probably less than 2%.

 

West Coast (2): Gonzaga, St. Mary's

 

Looked like a sure-fire two bid league until St. Mary's lost their top scorer and began their freefall. Now, they need to jump back over top of Portland in the standings to secure a second league bid. This is a good conference and I think the two bids will eventually come....but it's getting dicey.

 

WAC (1-2): Utah State

 

Utah State is on fire and an at-large berth looks like an almost sure thing at this point. A second bid from the WAC can only come if Utah State doesn't win the conference tourney. Yes, I know they lost over the weekend, but they're still a solid team and worthy of a trip to the dance.

 

Top Sixteen Seeds (as of today):

 

#1- North Carolina, Oklahoma, Connecticut, Pittsburgh

#2- Duke, Michigan State, Memphis, Louisville

#3- Wake Forest, Clemson, Washington, Missouri

#4- Kansas, Marquette, Illinois, Xavier

[FeelingMN 273]

Big game for the Gophers this week at Michigan Thursday night. A win will go a long way in securing a bid for Minnesota. A loss, and it's gonna be tight down the stretch. Michigan absolutely needs this game.

 

I love this time of year!

[posty 2,844]

WVU had a great win against Villanova...

 

Hopefully as long as they beat DePaul, Rutgers and South Florida, that would put them at 20-8 and 9-6 in the conference... Notre Dame at home is winnable, Cincinnati is a toss-up and Louisville will be tough, but at least it is at the Colosseum... I think that they will end up 21-10 and 10-8 in the conference, which should definitely get them into the tournament...

 

But hopefully they don't have a let down after defeating Nova...

[Fumbleweed 555]

WVU had a great win against Villanova...

 

Hopefully as long as they beat DePaul, Rutgers and South Florida, that would put them at 20-8 and 9-6 in the conference... Notre Dame at home is winnable, Cincinnati is a toss-up and Louisville will be tough, but at least it is at the Colosseum... I think that they will end up 21-10 and 10-8 in the conference, which should definitely get them into the tournament...

 

But hopefully they don't have a let down after defeating Nova...

 

Their computer numbers are ridiculously strong. I think they're in with a record of 9-9 in the conference if need be.

[EAwer 1]

I only really follow the big 10. I see MSU in as a 3 seed, maybe 4 if we really falter. Illnois and Purdue both as 4-6 seeds, and OSU somewhere aroudn 6-7. After that I really feel that Wiscy and Penn st will get in as bubble teams, and Minny is going to fade down the stretch here.

[Fumbleweed 555]

I still think Michigan State's got a good shot at a 2 seed, but that performance last night wasn't too great....

[Snoopy1 0]

I can't believe Wisconsin's actually played themselves on to the bubble. I saw 4 of the 6 losses and while close-the results seemed to be pretty much spot on...a close but not really good/talented enough team to merit consideration.

 

Bo Ryan really is one of the better coaches in the country to have those guys anywhere close to the mix. Shame he can't or won't recruit guys with the athletic ability they get at Marquette.

[cortezthekiller303 0]

WVU had a great win against Villanova...

 

Hopefully as long as they beat DePaul, Rutgers and South Florida, that would put them at 20-8 and 9-6 in the conference... Notre Dame at home is winnable, Cincinnati is a toss-up and Louisville will be tough, but at least it is at the Colosseum... I think that they will end up 21-10 and 10-8 in the conference, which should definitely get them into the tournament...

 

But hopefully they don't have a let down after defeating Nova...

 

ND and Cincy are certainly winnable games. I worry slightly about the hoorah at the Cincy game with the ode to Huggs presentation that is going to be made. The Cincy players cant feel that good about having to wait through a ceremony honoring the visiting coach, and it could be the spark they need to win that game.

 

If WVU can turn in a performance close to what they did in the second half about a month ago at UL, thats a win as well. But thats asking alot.

 

***Leaving the innernets in a few hours for the Notre Dame game in Morgantown***

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

FFToday.com car flags for gameday.  I would use 'em.

[posty 2,844]

ND and Cincy are certainly winnable games. I worry slightly about the hoorah at the Cincy game with the ode to Huggs presentation that is going to be made. The Cincy players cant feel that good about having to wait through a ceremony honoring the visiting coach, and it could be the spark they need to win that game.

 

If WVU can turn in a performance close to what they did in the second half about a month ago at UL, thats a win as well. But thats asking alot.

 

***Leaving the innernets in a few hours for the Notre Dame game in Morgantown***

 

Have fun at the Colosseum...

 

I just don't know what WVU can throw at Harangody to stop him...

[cortezthekiller303 0]

Have fun at the Colosseum...

 

I just don't know what WVU can throw at Harangody to stop him...

 

AA or AAA-sized batteries from teh student section have worked in the past.

[posty 2,844]

AA or AAA-sized batteries from teh student section have worked in the past.

 

LOL...

[ZeroTolerance 584]

Anyone who has watched Michigan this season is well aware that they pose no threat to other bubble teams. Beilein's instance on running his outside shooting 'system' on a team that just can't shoot the 3 plays them out of close games and prevents them from pulling away games they should be winning easily. 26+ threes per game when you only shoot 30% from behind the arc...brutal.

 

Michigan:

3-pt's attempted: 687 (5th in the nation)

3-pt % - 31.7 (272nd in the nation)

[posty 2,844]

Nice win for WVU against the Irish...

[Fumbleweed 555]

Weird night last night. That Penn State-Illinois score was brutal....but it kept Penn State in the discussion to be sure.

 

Tough losses for South Carolina, Tennessee, Butler, Davidson, Ohio State, and Virginia Tech.

[posty 2,844]

Weird night last night. That Penn State-Illinois score was brutal....but it kept Penn State in the discussion to be sure.

 

I saw that score today and thought it was just the halftime score...

 

Was that just great defense or horrible shooting?

[cortezthekiller303 0]

Nice win for WVU against the Irish...

 

Great game. The crowd was out for Harangody's head. He is such a basttard; he is just one of those guys you love to hate. The late second-half tangle with Throughman did him in though: not only did Cam get in a nice shot at Harangody's left eye, but then he calmly sank the two foul shots he had coming to him after Hanangody jumped him.

 

And there was a ton of MILF asss out at the game last night as well, that is always a pleasure to see.

[ZeroTolerance 584]

There will be many, many mediocre-at-best teams receiving at-large bids this year.

[cmh6476 1,153]

Great game. The crowd was out Harangody's head. He is such a basttard; he is just one of those guys you love to hate. The late second-half tangle with Throughman did him in though: not only did Cam get in a nice shot at Harangody's left eye, but then he calmly sank the two foul shots he had coming to him after Hanangody jumped him.

 

And there was a ton of MILF asss out at the game last night as well, that is always a pleasure to see.

It was a college game. I'd think most of those "milfs" may have yet to had any chitlins

[cmh6476 1,153]

There will be many, many mediocre-at-best teams receiving at-large bids this year.

agreed. An average team at best for KU, and yet they are in the thick of the hunt for the Big 12 title.