Bold Projections For 2009

[ROYALWITCHEESE 0]

A couple of thoughts on your take---

 

I may not have stated it well, but my statement regarding a Rb who catches "5-8 balls a game" was not meant to imply that the player will average 5-8 catches per game. Instead, and what I should have stated, was that there are Rbs who are actively involved in their team's passing games (and a 5-8 catch game is not out of the norm) and then there are Rbs who are not. I believe that the RBs who are involved in the passing game are more valuable than the ones who are not in a PPR league, including all of the top tier guys. Here are my main arguments why:

 

I want the top back on my fantasy team to have the most potential to score points, in all manners, in any given week, regardless of matchup or team success. A two-down back's numbers are basically tied to the overall flow of the individual game...if his team is winning or in a close contest, he is likely to see alot of fourth quarter rushes, with the chance to up his rushing totals and maybe tack on a td. Which is great in those weeks where that back's team is winning. BUT, in those weeks where his team is down by three scores in the third quarter and have abandoned the run, the points that you expect from that top guy remain on the sidelines as the passing down back comes in for end of the game duty. Now, with a dual threat guy like MJD or Forte, you get all of those fourth quarter rushes in the wins, PLUS all of those garbage dumpoffs at the end of a loss that end up offsetting the fact that his team abandoned the run in the third quarter. So, instead of a disappointing week by a guy like AD, you get an average day from an MJD. Sure, Peterson will probably have a game or two where he blows up, but he is also going to have a game or two where he craps the bed because Minnesota gets blown out. Dual threat guys like MJD and Forte are far less likely to put up complete stinkers, based on the points they amass from receptions. In essence, I'll trade the huge game potential for week to week consistency from my top guy. End of the year numbers mean very little if a guy is not putting up points week in and week out, since most of us play in head to head leagues.

 

My other argument has been said by many before, so I won't beat it to death, but, simply put, a 60 reception guy versus a 20 reception guy is a 40 point difference that needs to be made up by the 20 catch guy right from the start. In a league where all tds are 6 points, that is a 6+ TD advantage that the 60 catch guy has that the 20 catch guy needs to make up---considering that MJD has better TDs numbers in his career than Peterson (14-9-15 for MJD, 13-10 for AD), that is alot of catching up AD has to do to account for those catches.

 

I get your love for AD and can't knock you for wanting to take him first based on his explosive potential...it's just that I think there are some guys with similar upsides who I believe will be more consistent in leagues where their receptions are awarded a point.

 

I agree with you for the most part. But AD was immune to that. He didn't "crap the bad" once. He had over 75 yards rushing in every game last year. No one else was even close. DeAngelo, Turner, AD are all top five RBs and don't catch many passes. I think AD had 21, DWill 22, and Turner 4. With the exception of possibly MJD, there isn't a RB I would take over any of the three.

[yostevo 0]

Too early

[shaqers 0]

I'm so sick of seeing projections for 2009 that mirror so closely the final rankings for 2008. For instance, ESPN just posted their QBs as Brees, Brady, Manning, Warner...which (with the exception of an injured Brady), is pretty much how the season ended last year...So for those of you so sick of seeing the same "Bold" Predictions for this upcoming season, I'll offer a different look at things, so feel free to agree, or tear it apart! PPR League

 

Running Backs:

1. Adrian Peterson - 1,600 rushing yards, 16 TDs, 35/400/2 receiving. Too good to be ranked any lower, only injuries can slow him down.

 

2. Maurice Jones Drew - 1,300/11 rushing, 55/600/3 receiving. Will get heavier workload, but not buying the breakout, career year like everyone is preaching.

3. Chris Johnson - 1,350/13 rushing, 40/400/2 receiving. Hard to believe LenWhale will repeat his TD totals.

 

4. Frank Gore - 1,200/10 rushing, 60/550/3 receiving. Should be top5 in total touches, just needs to find the endzone.

5. Brandon Jacobs - 1,350/14 rushing, 20/200/1 receiving. Could have a breakout year without Ward.

6. Matt Forte - 1,150/9 rushing, 45/400/3 receiving. Can do it all, but should have an easier workload with Cutler there.

7. DeAngelo Williams - 1,200/11 rushing, 35/300/1 receiving. Hard to repeat 2008, but don't rule him out just cuz of JStew.

 

8. Kevin Smith - 1,200/10 rushing, 35/300/1 receiving. Should also be towards the top in touches, if this team can be somewhat more competitive.

9. Michael Turner - 1,300/12 rushing, 15/100/1 receiving. Hard to repeat 2008, and simply doesn't catch the ball, especially with the explosive Norwood.

10. Reggie Bush - 800/6 rushing, 90/900/8 receiving. In PPR leagues, he's pretty much a solid #2 WR with 40-70 rushing yards a game.

11. Steve Slaton - 1,100/9 rushing, 50/400/2 receiving. Durability could be his only issue, as he is young and ultra-talented.

12. Ryan Grant - 1,150/9 rushing, 35/300/1 receiving. With the emergence of Rodgers, running game could see more holes in '09.

 

13. Larry Johnson - 1,200/10 rushing, 25/200/1 receiving. Somethin tells me he has a bounceback year with the addition of Cassel and a young OLine.

14. Steven Jackson - 1,000/7 rushing, 40/300/3 receiving. (11 games) - Everyone is preaching his ppg #s, but i'll simply point to his games PLAYED.

15. Brian Westbrook - 900/7 rushing, 45/400/3 receiving. A year older, with a capable backup (for the first time), and emerging WRs means less touches for him.

16. Felix Jones - 1,100/8 rushing, 35/400/2 receiving. Just a hunch here, I could see him used as the featured back to keep Barber healthy near the goalline/4th quarter. And their OLine is that good.

Wide Receivers:

1. Larry Fitzgerald - 95/1,350/13 - Has earned this spot regardless of Boldin's situation.

2. Calvin Johnson - 90/1,300/12 - Proved that he doesn't need a talented QB to put up top3 numbers.

 

3. Steve Smith - 85/1,350/11 - Nearly missed about 5 TDs last year, and I think DEFs will be concentrating on their running game.

4. Reggie Wayne - 85/1,250/11 - I think a bounceback year is in order for the Colts offense as a whole.

5. Andre Johnson - 95/1,300/8 - Lack of TDs is what separates him from Fitz and Calvin.

6. Marques Colston - 85/1,200/10 - Should return to being Brees' favorite target in this high-powered offense.

 

7. Dwayne Bowe - 80/1,150/11 - I think he'll emerge as Cassel's favorite target, especially in the red zone.

8. Randy Moss - 80/1,200/10 - I know Brady is back, but with McDaniels gone, I don't think we'll see such a pass-happy offense anymore.

9. Terrell Owens - 85/1,250/9 - Has a history of having huge 1st years with his new teams.

10. TJ Houshwhatever - 90/1,200/8 - I think he establishes a great PPR season with Hasselbeck back to being healthy.

11. Vincent Jackson - 70/1,100/12 - I don't think the SD running game will step up, so I think Jackson benefits.

 

12. Roddy White - 75/1,250/9 - I think it'll be hard for ATL to build on 2008, even though I'm in the minority.

13. Greg Jennings - 70/1,150/10 - Should have a strong future with Rodgers, but I think the Packers will go back to the running game a lil more.

14. Chad OchoCinco - 80/1,150/9 - If he stays in Cincy, I think he'll be productive with Palmer back and 100%.

15. Roy Williams - 75/1,100/10 - I think the Cowboys focus on the run more in '09, but Romo needs to throw to someone.

 

Quarterbacks:

1. Drew Brees - 4,500/34/16 - With a healthy Bush and Colston, I don't see him dropping from the #1 spot.

 

2. Peyton Manning - 4,300/32/12 - Should be in for another big year...just look at his stats in '08 once he got healthy.

 

3. Aaron Rodgers - 4,200/28/15 - Could emerge as a top5 QB for years to come.

4. Tom Brady - 4,300/26/14 - Even if he is healthy, I don't think the Pats will throw as much.

5. Donovan McNabb - 4,000/25/15 - I hate the Eagles, but I think he has some explosive players to throw to.

 

6. Carson Palmer - 3,800/27/17 - Could bounce back in a huge way, especially if 85 is still in town.

7. Kurt Warner - 4,000/24/16 - I don't think he'll put up the #'s with an unhappy Boldin and the addition of Wells to the running game.

8. Jay Cutler - 3,800/26/13 - Won't have to throw the ball as much as in Denver, but will have more opportunities for TDs.

9. Philip Rivers - 3,900/24/12 - Will be relied on more now that LT is past his prime.

10. Tony Romo - 3,650/25/13 - I think the Cowboys will shift to the running game to take some pressure off of Romo.

Just throwin some ideas around, I know some guys seem like reaches, but year after year we see some young guys emerge, old guys rebound, and stars disappoint...Critique Away!

 

very nice list.

 

a few things:

I disagree on Kevin Smith. I just dont think DET is good enough nor is Kevin Smith to project those numbers.

Dont think Jacobs will be in top-10 in PPR. He may get more carries this year, but wont duplicate 15 TDs. I expect 9-11.

Chris Johnson - Lendale is on contract year and is already working his tail off. Yes, White wont score 15, but i think the team as a whole wont score 20 rushing TDs. White may get 11, CJ3 8. Wont be surprised at all if CJ3 misses games this year too.

TO - ur correct he blows up first year on a new team, but that was with a passing team like PHI and DAL. This is the Bills with a young QB. Dont see him blowin up.

[davidbostonisgood 2]

2009 bold prediction:

 

Jay Cutler proves doubters wrong, makes a name for himself, and is recognized as a top 15 QB, maybe even top 10. At least I think top 10 for sure, probably even already.

 

[nlgb1 0]

I'm so sick of seeing projections for 2009 that mirror so closely the final rankings for 2008. For instance, ESPN just posted their QBs as Brees, Brady, Manning, Warner...which (with the exception of an injured Brady), is pretty much how the season ended last year...So for those of you so sick of seeing the same "Bold" Predictions for this upcoming season, I'll offer a different look at things, so feel free to agree, or tear it apart! PPR League

 

Running Backs:

1. Adrian Peterson - 1,600 rushing yards, 16 TDs, 35/400/2 receiving. Too good to be ranked any lower, only injuries can slow him down.

 

2. Maurice Jones Drew - 1,300/11 rushing, 55/600/3 receiving. Will get heavier workload, but not buying the breakout, career year like everyone is preaching.

3. Chris Johnson - 1,350/13 rushing, 40/400/2 receiving. Hard to believe LenWhale will repeat his TD totals.

 

4. Frank Gore - 1,200/10 rushing, 60/550/3 receiving. Should be top5 in total touches, just needs to find the endzone.

5. Brandon Jacobs - 1,350/14 rushing, 20/200/1 receiving. Could have a breakout year without Ward.

6. Matt Forte - 1,150/9 rushing, 45/400/3 receiving. Can do it all, but should have an easier workload with Cutler there.

7. DeAngelo Williams - 1,200/11 rushing, 35/300/1 receiving. Hard to repeat 2008, but don't rule him out just cuz of JStew.

 

8. Kevin Smith - 1,200/10 rushing, 35/300/1 receiving. Should also be towards the top in touches, if this team can be somewhat more competitive.

9. Michael Turner - 1,300/12 rushing, 15/100/1 receiving. Hard to repeat 2008, and simply doesn't catch the ball, especially with the explosive Norwood.

10. Reggie Bush - 800/6 rushing, 90/900/8 receiving. In PPR leagues, he's pretty much a solid #2 WR with 40-70 rushing yards a game.

11. Steve Slaton - 1,100/9 rushing, 50/400/2 receiving. Durability could be his only issue, as he is young and ultra-talented.

12. Ryan Grant - 1,150/9 rushing, 35/300/1 receiving. With the emergence of Rodgers, running game could see more holes in '09.

 

13. Larry Johnson - 1,200/10 rushing, 25/200/1 receiving. Somethin tells me he has a bounceback year with the addition of Cassel and a young OLine.

14. Steven Jackson - 1,000/7 rushing, 40/300/3 receiving. (11 games) - Everyone is preaching his ppg #s, but i'll simply point to his games PLAYED.

15. Brian Westbrook - 900/7 rushing, 45/400/3 receiving. A year older, with a capable backup (for the first time), and emerging WRs means less touches for him.

16. Felix Jones - 1,100/8 rushing, 35/400/2 receiving. Just a hunch here, I could see him used as the featured back to keep Barber healthy near the goalline/4th quarter. And their OLine is that good.

Wide Receivers:

1. Larry Fitzgerald - 95/1,350/13 - Has earned this spot regardless of Boldin's situation.

2. Calvin Johnson - 90/1,300/12 - Proved that he doesn't need a talented QB to put up top3 numbers.

 

3. Steve Smith - 85/1,350/11 - Nearly missed about 5 TDs last year, and I think DEFs will be concentrating on their running game.

4. Reggie Wayne - 85/1,250/11 - I think a bounceback year is in order for the Colts offense as a whole.

5. Andre Johnson - 95/1,300/8 - Lack of TDs is what separates him from Fitz and Calvin.

6. Marques Colston - 85/1,200/10 - Should return to being Brees' favorite target in this high-powered offense.

 

7. Dwayne Bowe - 80/1,150/11 - I think he'll emerge as Cassel's favorite target, especially in the red zone.

8. Randy Moss - 80/1,200/10 - I know Brady is back, but with McDaniels gone, I don't think we'll see such a pass-happy offense anymore.

9. Terrell Owens - 85/1,250/9 - Has a history of having huge 1st years with his new teams.

10. TJ Houshwhatever - 90/1,200/8 - I think he establishes a great PPR season with Hasselbeck back to being healthy.

11. Vincent Jackson - 70/1,100/12 - I don't think the SD running game will step up, so I think Jackson benefits.

 

12. Roddy White - 75/1,250/9 - I think it'll be hard for ATL to build on 2008, even though I'm in the minority.

13. Greg Jennings - 70/1,150/10 - Should have a strong future with Rodgers, but I think the Packers will go back to the running game a lil more.

14. Chad OchoCinco - 80/1,150/9 - If he stays in Cincy, I think he'll be productive with Palmer back and 100%.

15. Roy Williams - 75/1,100/10 - I think the Cowboys focus on the run more in '09, but Romo needs to throw to someone.

 

Quarterbacks:

1. Drew Brees - 4,500/34/16 - With a healthy Bush and Colston, I don't see him dropping from the #1 spot.

 

2. Peyton Manning - 4,300/32/12 - Should be in for another big year...just look at his stats in '08 once he got healthy.

 

3. Aaron Rodgers - 4,200/28/15 - Could emerge as a top5 QB for years to come.

4. Tom Brady - 4,300/26/14 - Even if he is healthy, I don't think the Pats will throw as much.

5. Donovan McNabb - 4,000/25/15 - I hate the Eagles, but I think he has some explosive players to throw to.

 

6. Carson Palmer - 3,800/27/17 - Could bounce back in a huge way, especially if 85 is still in town.

7. Kurt Warner - 4,000/24/16 - I don't think he'll put up the #'s with an unhappy Boldin and the addition of Wells to the running game.

8. Jay Cutler - 3,800/26/13 - Won't have to throw the ball as much as in Denver, but will have more opportunities for TDs.

9. Philip Rivers - 3,900/24/12 - Will be relied on more now that LT is past his prime.

10. Tony Romo - 3,650/25/13 - I think the Cowboys will shift to the running game to take some pressure off of Romo.

Just throwin some ideas around, I know some guys seem like reaches, but year after year we see some young guys emerge, old guys rebound, and stars disappoint...Critique Away!

 

those arent bold predictions... just rankings that couldve come from any "expert's" website. congratulations

[kmbryant09 1]

those arent bold predictions... just rankings that couldve come from any "expert's" website. congratulations

Find me an expert's website that has Frank Gore, Brandon Jacobs, and Kevin Smith ahead of Michael Turner. Or Ryan Grant and Larry Johnson in the top 13.

[Mike MacGregor 20]

My 1st Bold Prediction out of 3 for the year

 

Braylon Edwards will be a top 12 WR in FFTODAY final rankings

 

I'm editing my sig right now!

 

Stats at the end of the year (FF Today scoring), or the last pre-season Krueger rankings to be posted on ye old website?

[remote controller 136]

those arent bold predictions... just rankings that couldve come from any "expert's" website. congratulations

More effort then you put forth so stifle it!

[Raider 84 29]

Randy Moss wins the season's MVP and Superbowl MVP!