Let's talk "Injury Risk"

[BloodySunday 0]

At this time of year, I always wonder whether the "injury risk" label is vastly over-emphasized. Football is a very violent game and EVERY player is potentially a play away from a season-ending injury. Undoubtedly, some players suffer more injuries than others, but are they truly "injury prone" or have they just been unlucky?

 

Tomlinson has missed 1 game in eight seasons, but now that he's 30 and after suffering a couple recent nagging injuries, some are labeling him an injury risk. From '05-'07, McNabb missed 15 games, but after playing in 16 games last season, I'm not hearing much about this year about his injury history. Schaub has missed 5 games in each of the last two seasons because of a few unrelated injuries - does that make him injury prone? Until last season, Tom Brady had played 16 games in six straight years, and look what happened to him. Is Randy Moss injury prone? His time in Oakland might suggest that he is, but his experience in Minn and NE certainly indicate otherwise. That brings me to Brian Westbrook who has never played a full 16-game regular season. Furthermore, he's frequently a frustrating "game time decision". He's probably the most legitimately labeled injury risk, but he does at least usually play 15 games each season.

 

Obviously, players who enter the season coming off an injury should be drafted with some caution, but should we really consider currently healthy players not named Westbrook an injury risk? Are the players with an injury-free history really more durable, or have they just been fortunate (so far)? Will the law of averages eventually catch up with them a la Jerry Rice (with apologies to you young guys)?

 

There's probably not a true answer to this somewhat rhetorical question, but I do believe that most fantasy players place too much emphasis on past injuries on draft day.

[Gladiators 1,987]

Well, since no one on this forum other than myself can predict the future, they must rely on the past as the best indicator of the future. In addition, they'll look at the coaching staff (mostly changes), free agent acquisitions/losses, development of younger players, rookie draft picks, and the player's age to try to predict this season's statistics for a particular player. When it comes to injuries, none of us can predict what would happen, but we can look at the player's history to get an idea how well he'll hold up. Brady, for example, I don't think would be labeled as injury prone or an injury risk. That's also why he's listed as a top 3 QB by almost every ranking you'll see out there.

 

I probably did nothing to help answer your question, but hey, all of the things I noted above are why many of us spend way too much time over-analyzing FF. In the end, there will be some luck involved. Whether it's having all your guys stay healthy, finding that gem RB in round 10 that explodes, or being able to pick up a great free agent to ride to the championship.

[fantasymind 1]

Good topic by the OP, and good reply by Gladiator...In my mind, the term injury prone is mostly used in two cases. Case one is with a guy like Westbrook (as you mentioned), who always seems to be nursing a moderate injury all season long and eventually misses a game or more because of it. These are guys that you draft almost expecting that you won't get a full 16 games out of them, based upon their "games played" history. Early 2000s Fred Taylor is a great example of this type of "injury-prone" label...he is also a good example of how a few healthy seasons can erase that label from this type of player as well. Steven Jackson and Reggie Bush are hoping to follow that lead this season and shake the "injury-prone" moniker.

The second case deals with guys who suffer major injuries that cost them significant time...Whether a fluke or not, a guy like Brady who is coming off a season ender, will have the "injury" label attached to him until he proves otherwise (which is usually one full season of health upon return). In Brady's case, most are just confident enough in his ability and believe that the injury was a fluke, so they will not let that label stop them from using an early round pick on him...So, while maybe not "injury-prone", a guy returning from major injury will always have that stigma attached until they come back healthy and prove otherwise.

As the op stated, eveybody in the NFL is just one play away from serious injury and no one can predict who or when these will strike...sometimes past injuries, missed games, or the "injury-prone" label become a draft "separator" of sorts, allowing owners to favor one guy over another when they otherwise might be just about equal in value...Doesn't mean that it is the correct thing to do or that it works in every case, but, I think it gives one more piece of information to evaluate when trying to rank players and determine their value for the coming season. I know most owners will sleep a little better at night (rightly or wrongly) if their first round pick is a guy who has never missed a game due to injury as opposed to a guy who has played in 12 games the past two seasons...until week one when the guy who has never been hurt tears his ACL untouched, is lost for the year, and becomes the next in the continuing line of players who have the injury label attached to them.

[GiantsFan11 0]

I think each injury and player must be looked at individual and a determination made on how to evaluate injury risk. For me it is not how many games a player has missed, but why they have missed games.

 

Some Runningbacks due to an upright running style or desire for contact are more likely to have injuries than others. Barber, Jacobs & Jackson for example.

 

Did the player have an off-season surgery that prevented them from being in the proper shape when camp began? Surgeries late in the off-season (Westbrook this year) for example are a flag for me

 

Running backs who tore an ACL the year before are an injury risk to me because most take 2 years before they can run with power again. For QBs it is surgery on the throwing shoulder. If Brady were a running back no one would have him ranked in the top 3 this year.

 

Microfracture surgery is always an injury red flag. Reggie Bush & Marques Colston will be on someone elses rosters this season.

[Melissa Stark 1]

Good assessment GiantsFan11.

[DeaLerZ 0]

Good assessment GiantsFan11.

 

Agreed

[KSB2424 3,148]

I look at Injury Risk like I do going to a bank after it's been robbed. I mean, what are the odds that the same bank will get held up twice in the same 2 years? As a matter of fact, the bank down the road now has a greater chance of being robbed than the one that it just happend to (by way of odds/statistics).

[9-Route 0]

I look at Injury Risk like I do going to a bank after it's been robbed. I mean, what are the odds that the same bank will get held up twice in the same 2 years? As a matter of fact, the bank down the road now has a greater chance of being robbed than the one that it just happend to (by way of odds/statistics).

 

Q1: if i understand u correctly, based simply upon mathematics, then wouldn't the odds remain the same for both banks? ie plucking a spade from the deck has odds of 13/52; repeating this, without removing the drawn card from the deck, is again 13/52: the robbed bank does not get removed from the pool of possible bank robbery targets, so the odds of each bank getting robbed remain the same.

 

Q2: if u r correct, then sjackson is the unfortunate bank that got robbed twice/back-to-back? [bad location, owners better close their accounts... ]

[KSB2424 3,148]

Q1: if i understand u correctly, based simply upon mathematics, then wouldn't the odds remain the same for both banks? ie plucking a spade from the deck has odds of 13/52; repeating this, without removing the drawn card from the deck, is again 13/52: the robbed bank does not get removed from the pool of possible bank robbery targets, so the odds of each bank getting robbed remain the same.

Aww, but you forget that the robbed bank takes extra precautions (security / monitoring) that they did not before. Much the same way a player is wearing a brace or taking extra precautions. The virgin bank is ripe for the picking and think they are untouchable so they run head first into a strong safety.

[9-Route 0]

Aww, but you forget that the robbed bank takes extra precautions (security / monitoring) that they did not before. Much the same way a player is wearing a brace or taking extra precautions. The virgin bank is ripe for the picking and think they are untouchable so they run head first into a strong safety.

 

well, therein lies the dilemma of "based upon mathematics" versus other factors:

 

the virgin bank may indeed run into the safety thinking it is indestructible; it may also fear similar injury seen on tv and shy away since it is a scared girlie girl.

 

just as the robbed bank takes precautions/makes adjustments, robbers do as well: they may attempt to outhink authorities with, "u know, they'll never anticipate us hitting the same place twice!"

 

 

[obvuiously, plenty of external factors influence bank robberies and running back injuries. i was merely splitting hairs on the technical math portion of the exercise ]

 

the one concrete thing i have seen is that confidence in health when returning from injury takes time. the loss/decrease of this confidence during the build-up phase leaves players at additional risk, and in somewhat fear, because they are not moving at 100% and completing their normally accustomed, explosive-twitched contact moves, whereas everyone around them is doing so.

[Ray_T 753]

Aww, but you forget that the robbed bank takes extra precautions (security / monitoring) that they did not before. Much the same way a player is wearing a brace or taking extra precautions. The virgin bank is ripe for the picking and think they are untouchable so they run head first into a strong safety.

he also doesnt realize that some banks are robbed more often because of location & getaway routes & proximity to police stations. So these places get hit more often than other banks regardless of precaution.

 

Ditto for injuries.

 

certain types of injury----> more prone to reinjure or more prone to injure a related muscle group due to the weaker link in the chain.

certain people also have lower bone density and are more likely to have a broken bone.

players who do a decent off season workout program are less likely to get hurt than players who do not.

Players who play on an artificial surface are more prone to certain injuries than those who play on a grass surface. (I am sure that certain injuries may be more likely to occur on a grass surface as well, but do not know the stats on this)

 

so injuries can (at least to a degree) be predicted.

[9-Route 0]

again, the key phrase here is "all things being equal" : the cards in the deck are equal; fort knox and first national are not.

[KSB2424 3,148]

so injuries can (at least to a degree) be predicted.

I was just being funny and messing around, but this is really hilarious. 'Injuries can be predicted'. Bhwahahahahah

[WhiteWonder 2,735]

I was just being funny and messing around, but this is really hilarious. 'Injuries can be predicted'. Bhwahahahahah

 

its not entirely untrue.

 

If you use the information provided to you (run style, past injury history, offensive line, workload, etc etc etc) It is sometimes easier to say, "well this guy has a higher chance of injury".

 

the truth is, injuries can happen at any time, to anyone BUT someone who runs upright with a punishing style like a Brandon Jacobs is easier to predict. Someone with a gigantic workload like Larry Johnson had, was easier to predict. Someone who is a straight up poosay like Joseph Addai is just easier to predict.

[KSB2424 3,148]

Someone who runs upright like a Adrian Peterson is easier to predict. Someone with a gigantic workload like Matt Forte or Michael Turner had, was easier to predict.

[WhiteWonder 2,735]

 

Not sure if you were trying to disprove what I was syaing or what but I find all of those guys to be excellent additions because they fall under the categories mentioned. Peterson has already missed a few Pro games in his short career as well as his college injury history and both Turner and Forte had the kind of workloads where I would not fault anyone for letting them slip a few picks due to concern.

 

[KSB2424 3,148]

Not sure if you were trying to disprove what I was syaing or what but I find all of those guys to be excellent additions because they fall under the categories mentioned. Peterson has already missed a few Pro games in his short career as well as his college injury history and both Turner and Forte had the kind of workloads where I would not fault anyone for letting them slip a few picks due to concern.

 

So you agree, you cannot predict injuries.

 

Unless you guys have some sort of crystal ball or space-time travel thingy. Listen, as much as we want to think we can predict this stuff as fantasy football people we can't. A lineman can roll up on any RB or QB at any time. A tweak here, or a tweak there. This whole upright, he was injured in 2007 before, workload last year stuff is for the birds. It means nothing. MJD has just as much chance of rolling an ankle as Frank Gore.

 

Thinking you can predict that stuff is just fodder where you actually think you can control something when in fact we draft guys and pray.

 

ETA: I'm sure some of you will comeback with "but you can predict the future from the past yada yada". No you can't. Not with this you cannot. However it makes you feel better to try to have some 'control' so you believe it. That's fine, whatever makes you sleep at night.

[WhiteWonder 2,735]

I agree that inuries can happen anytime, to anyone.. they are mostly bad luck...

 

but to say that you can completely ignore history, run style, workloads etc... I think is ignorance.

 

Ofcourse a player with some negatives from this list can end up playing a full slate of games and someone who we think is not on this list at all (MJD for example) can blow out his knee in week 1 but the smart money is on covering all your bases when making a decision.

[Gladiators 1,987]

So you agree, you cannot predict injuries.

 

Unless you guys have some sort of crystal ball or space-time travel thingy. Listen, as much as we want to think we can predict this stuff as fantasy football people we can't. A lineman can roll up on any RB or QB at any time. A tweak here, or a tweak there. This whole upright, he was injured in 2007 before, workload last year stuff is for the birds. It means nothing. MJD has just as much chance of rolling an ankle as Frank Gore.

 

Thinking you can predict that stuff is just fodder where you actually think you can control something when in fact we draft guys and pray.

 

ETA: I'm sure some of you will comeback with "but you can predict the future from the past yada yada". No you can't. Not with this you cannot. However it makes you feel better to try to have some 'control' so you believe it. That's fine, whatever makes you sleep at night.

 

I don't think he's saying we can predict injuries like this:

 

LT is going to make a cut 3 minutes into the 2nd quarter against the Broncos. He tears his ACL and is done for the year.

 

He's saying that based on a players history, running style, work ethic, and overall mileage, a players chances may be higher than another players.

 

If a guy has had multiple knee surgeries and the trainers/doctors tell him he's more likely to suffer that injury again by playing football, yeah, one could say you can predict a guy is "more likely" to be injured again. He's not talking about the random, first time, torn ACL.

 

Again, Brady is a good example. No one predicted that injury. However, I would say it's highly likely that Addai misses a few games, or at least a few quarters because he pulls himself out of the game after he stubs his toe.

[BloodySunday 0]

Just what I was hoping - lots of good discussion on this thread. To summarize, while injuries are in large part a completely random occurrence, it might be possible to identify a somewhat higher injury probability based on history, style, etc. So it might make sense to slightly adjust draft rankings based on heightened injury risk. I do believe we are seeing some excessive injury risk-based adjustments in current ADPs (Westbrook, Tomlinson, S. Jackson, Addai?). Targeting some of these injury-hyped players might be a good strategy for mining some solid draft day value...

 

Speaking of inappropriate labels, I must comment on my characterization as a "FF rookie". I've been playing FF for 15 years and have won a great number of my leagues, including my first WCOFF league last year (in spite of wasting the #1 pick on Tomlinson).

[cyclone24 1,913]

Not sure if you were trying to disprove what I was syaing or what but I find all of those guys to be excellent additions because they fall under the categories mentioned. Peterson has already missed a few Pro games in his short career as well as his college injury history and both Turner and Forte had the kind of workloads where I would not fault anyone for letting them slip a few picks due to concern.

 

 

Thats great in theory.....but Forte and Turner are going 3rd and 4th in redrafts. So you let them slip in favor of who?

SJAX? injury prone...

LT?.....injury prone....

Going to feel good about drafting Portis, Slaton, Ryan Grant, or Chris Johnson at the 3rd or 4th pick? I think not.

 

Im not drafting colston and bush for the microfracture surgery.......IMO Forte and Turner will be fine with that workload from last year. They are not in that Portis stage where those carries have caught up to them (and have they even caught up to him?).....they are young and fresh...i say draft accordingly.

 

As far as risk.....I love Jacobs....but he scares me. He runs upright and guys know they have to cut him at the knees.

[WhiteWonder 2,735]

Thats great in theory.....but Forte and Turner are going 3rd and 4th in redrafts. So you let them slip in favor of who?

SJAX? injury prone...

LT?.....injury prone....

Going to feel good about drafting Portis, Slaton, Ryan Grant, or Chris Johnson at the 3rd or 4th pick? I think not.

 

Im not drafting colston and bush for the microfracture surgery.......IMO Forte and Turner will be fine with that workload from last year. They are not in that Portis stage where those carries have caught up to them (and have they even caught up to him?).....they are young and fresh...i say draft accordingly.

 

As far as risk.....I love Jacobs....but he scares me. He runs upright and guys know they have to cut him at the knees.

the high worload was just one of many reasons some people may downrank players because of injury potential. I never said I was downranking those 2.

 

Actually I downrank them for their own reasons (not injury related) Forte needs to do it again and Turner doesn't catch passes (i play in PPR's) but that is neither here nor there.