Keeper start-up question

[greggorymac 0]

Need your guys help....

 

We are switching from a re-draft league to a keeper league next season (12 team non-ppr league, 6pt all TDs, 2-team keeper with no penalty as to which 2 players you keep).

 

We did our draft spot lottery last night and I will be drafting 11th. Since the top 4 RBs will be gone and this is the first year of our keeper, should I solidify my team by drafting one of the top 4 QBs along with Fitz/AJ with my first two picks? Although that would put me in a whole at the RB position, I expect those QBs and those WRs to be at the top at their position for the next 3 years. Any RB I pick at 1.11 or 2.02 may not be any good a year or two from now.

 

How much should starting a keeper league this season influence my draft strategy?

[WhiteWonder 2,197]

i mean, if you are looking at it from a youth standpoint Rahsard Mendenhall may be around when you pick and would give you the combination of youth and production you are looking for. Same could be said for Shonn Greene. And both of those guys look even more attractive in a non PPR.

 

im not so sure you need to worry as much about getting a young stud WR in a non PPR. 6 points for all TD's makes Rodgers and Brees options as well.

 

Maybe a Rodgers Mendenhall combo?

[Stewburtx8 67]

I don't think the fact that you are starting a keeper league should change your stategy too much. You still want to take the best player available. Maybe you take a shot in the mid to late rounds on some high upside young guys, but in the first couple rounds you are just trying to build the best team possible, just as you would in a redraft. Maybe you bump older guys like Randy Moss down a round, but with a 2 keeper system, this isn't going to change your strategy too much.

 

I definitely wouldn't go RB/RB at the #11 spot unless someone really fell to me, but I agree with WW that you can still get a good young RB here. I highly doubt Andre Johnson will be available at #11. If he was, I'd have no problem taking Andre Johnson and Brees/Rodgers with those two picks over the group of RB's available. But more than likely, Andre Johnson, and probably Brees may be gone by pick #11. In this case, I like the idea of taking Mendenhall and Rodgers.

[jdon 28]

I think this is the toughest question in fantasy sports; whatever you do with those first four picks will become your identity for the next three - four years...

 

what I think:

1. in my experience dynasty leagues are, much like other leagues, won by running backs. Most years the player with the best back will win, or at least be in the playoffs.

2. a quarterback is far more important in dynasty than one could imagine; elite quarterbacks are perpetually undervalued and therefore the people with them don't trade them and the people without them are chasing them. (I am talking the mannings of the world). to this end, Aaron Rodgers in the second round could be a very interesting idea.

3. Wide recievers last the longest; that said, they ebb and flow like no other position. Andre Johnson would be tempting at 11, if he is there.

4. As important as running backs are, honestly they don't mean ###### initially because if you suck you get to replace that position the easiest. Every year the top three picks in a dynasty league have an opportunity to get a long term stud running back (some years they hit, some years they fail)...

5. It is very ###### hard to draft wide recievers and quarterbacks with accuracy when they come out of college

[greggorymac 0]

I think this is the toughest question in fantasy sports; whatever you do with those first four picks will become your identity for the next three - four years...

 

what I think:

1. in my experience dynasty leagues are, much like other leagues, won by running backs. Most years the player with the best back will win, or at least be in the playoffs.

2. a quarterback is far more important in dynasty than one could imagine; elite quarterbacks are perpetually undervalued and therefore the people with them don't trade them and the people without them are chasing them. (I am talking the mannings of the world). to this end, Aaron Rodgers in the second round could be a very interesting idea.

3. Wide recievers last the longest; that said, they ebb and flow like no other position. Andre Johnson would be tempting at 11, if he is there.

4. As important as running backs are, honestly they don't mean ###### initially because if you suck you get to replace that position the easiest. Every year the top three picks in a dynasty league have an opportunity to get a long term stud running back (some years they hit, some years they fail)...

5. It is very ###### hard to draft wide recievers and quarterbacks with accuracy when they come out of college

 

Great insight jdon. Kind of what I was thinking. I want to make sure I get one of the top 3 QBs (Brees, Manning, Rogers) to build my team around for the next 3 years.

[RaiderHaters Revenge 3,622]

Great insight jdon. Kind of what I was thinking. I want to make sure I get one of the top 3 QBs (Brees, Manning, Rogers) to build my team around for the next 3 years.

 

why? Schaub, Brady, Rivers, will put up comparable no's.

 

if its a keeper just play to win this year, every player you take should be looking at this year only, too many people like to think too far ahead in keepers, this leaves really good value for veterans. You will have plenty of time to adjust you rosters over the years, every year teams turn over players, plus you will be able to sell some players for picks if you are falling out.

[We Tigers 71]

I was in a very similar situation last year. I was in a 14-team league that switched from redraft to a 3-keeper, no penalty. We also had 6 point TDs. The only major difference is the size and the fact that we got .5 PPR. I was picking at 1.12/2.03, so again, similar situations.

 

I approached it mostly like a redraft, but with some consideration for the middle-term as well. Since I didn't really know how my leaguemates would react to the new keeper rules, I wanted to keep some balance--I went for big-name RB and a big-name WR early so I could take value when it fell to me, and ended up with Steven Jackson and Randy Moss. As it turned out, most of the owners were thinking along the lines of jdon's second point: lock up an elite QB early. By the end of the 3rd round, Brees, Manning, Brady, Rodgers, Rivers, Romo, Cutler, Warner, and McNabb were all gone (didn't really agree with the last two). In the end, my pick-for-value strategy generally worked, as a great QB fell to me (Schaub) and I consistently grabbed guys 5-10 picks below their ADP. I won the league and have some nice players locked up for 2010. There are other teams that have better keepers for this year, but didn't have enough to support a few stars and couldn't make the playoffs.

 

The one regret I had was not jumping on one player I really liked soon enough. I was high on Ray Rice and almost took him at 3.12, but decided to linger just a bit longer because I thought he'd fall to the 5th. He went at 5.11, and I missed the chance to have a really good player on my roster for the long term. Don't worry about making one or two picks a round or two early if you really like the player.

 

In a limited keeper, I think you need to worry even less about getting the young stud than you do in a dynasty. While you want to pick up great players you can hold on to for a while, there's really no shame in taking Reggie Wayne over Calvin Johnson if you think Wayne's gonna beat him by 200 yards and 3 TDs this season. You have to assume that you'll draft at least decently in the coming years, and that player turnover won't be as big a deal as it is in dynasty.

 

In your specific spot, I like the advice you've gotten so far. If you do go with someone like Rodgers or Brees early, I would pay attention to veteran players that people may be letting slip because of their age. An investment in a QB early in a keeper league means you're planning to hold on to him, so you really only have one slot left to fill. Also, pay attention to runs; as close to the turn as you are, you could see 5-6 QBs go between your 2nd and 3rd picks (or, say, 5 TEs between your 4th and 5th picks). Runs on positions seem to pick up steam more quickly in dynasty/keeper leagues, as the consequences for missing out on an elite player at a certain spot are longer lasting than in redraft. If you can take advantage of those runs and consistently grab undervalued veterans at the ends of tiers, you will put yourself in a great position.

[jdon 28]

why? Schaub, Brady, Rivers, will put up comparable no's.

 

if its a keeper just play to win this year, every player you take should be looking at this year only, too many people like to think too far ahead in keepers, this leaves really good value for veterans. You will have plenty of time to adjust you rosters over the years, every year teams turn over players, plus you will be able to sell some players for picks if you are falling out.

 

No they won't. That is my point. well maybe rivers...

[madd futher mucker 36]

You must not go into this draft with any pre-conceived strategy other than taking the best player available at those two spots.

 

As Raider Hater's Revenge stated, there are really about SIX QBs in the same tier with Brees, Manning, Rodgers, Romo, Schaub (alphabetical order, not personal preference - and some would add Brady and Rivers to the list for a total of eight top tier QBs) along with with some that are close with better weapons like Eli, and some new cats like Stafford and maybe Kolb or Freeman on the horizon. So this proposed QB strategey is definitely not the answer. In fact, I would probably take the remaining of these six QBs in the 3rd round (even if I had to trade up when there are only two left on the board to do so). Remember: just because you took some players in the 1st two rounds does not mean they are gonna be your keepers next year; things change quickly in the NFL.

 

Do your projections, consider the age of the players involved without going overboard on that, and the answer will come to you at the time of the draft. Good luck!

[greggorymac 0]

All great advice guys...

 

Thank you and keep the advice coming.

[madd futher mucker 36]

Whattt???? You need MORE???? I gave you all the advise u need.

[jdon 28]

You must not go into this draft with any pre-conceived strategy other than taking the best player available at those two spots.

 

As Raider Hater's Revenge stated, there are really about SIX QBs in the same tier with Brees, Manning, Rodgers, Romo, Schaub (alphabetical order, not personal preference - and some would add Brady and Rivers to the list for a total of eight top tier QBs) along with with some that are close with better weapons like Eli, and some new cats like Stafford and maybe Kolb or Freeman on the horizon. So this proposed QB strategey is definitely not the answer. In fact, I would probably take the remaining of these six QBs in the 3rd round (even if I had to trade up when there are only two left on the board to do so). Remember: just because you took some players in the 1st two rounds does not mean they are gonna be your keepers next year; things change quickly in the NFL.

 

Do your projections, consider the age of the players involved without going overboard on that, and the answer will come to you at the time of the draft. Good luck!

 

 

the man with Eli will fail (obviously)

the man with brady will miss moss in two years, or regret everything when the team falls apart

the man with stafford is rolling the dice on the lions, and on CJ staying there long term

the man with kolb or freeman is a long fuckingg way from success...

The man with Romo, well he has romo, good luck with that...

the man with schaub has to deal with injury problems and AJ being the reason he is good.

 

 

and obviously you take best player available dummbass... the point is to project and make sure you know damn well the best 14 players on your board and then the best 38 so that you don't ###### up the important four rounds... and I am not saying he should jump on a quarterback I am just enlightening an important point which is that quarterbacks are undervalued in dynasty league drafts and he should exploit that.

 

jdon

[Ray_T 598]

Need your guys help....

 

We are switching from a re-draft league to a keeper league next season (12 team non-ppr league, 6pt all TDs, 2-team keeper with no penalty as to which 2 players you keep).

 

We did our draft spot lottery last night and I will be drafting 11th. Since the top 4 RBs will be gone and this is the first year of our keeper, should I solidify my team by drafting one of the top 4 QBs along with Fitz/AJ with my first two picks? Although that would put me in a whole at the RB position, I expect those QBs and those WRs to be at the top at their position for the next 3 years. Any RB I pick at 1.11 or 2.02 may not be any good a year or two from now.

 

How much should starting a keeper league this season influence my draft strategy?

We need more information here man.

 

there are a lot of factors that will decide what you should do.

 

1) scoring system: depending on rate per yard or bonuses for TDs or PPR vs standard, your results will vary.

2) Starting lineup. if you have a league that starts 2 QB the challenges will be different than if you start 1 QB. Ditto for 2 starting RB's vs 1 starting RB. Some keeper leagues start 3 WR instead of 2. each of these things will affect the value for the position.

3) any other unique rules that may affect your decision on who to draft.

[Ray_T 598]

My last respoonse notwithstanding, I will try to give you an answer that will help you.

 

when a dynasty league starts out, there are two types of players that will go early.

 

1) young players on the rise such as Ray Rice

2) veterans who are in or approaching their prime who produce extremely well.

 

players that sometimes get overlooked would be veterans nearing the end of their prime but who are still productive.

 

so Peyton manning at the age of 34, may not be a lock to be taken in the first round like he would be in a redraft.

 

in your position, it is difficult to predict which strategy you need to take because the strategy you take may depend on what the other 11 teams do before you pick.

 

I would plan out 2 or 3 probable scenarios that you feel are most likely to play out and plan accordingly.

 

if you know the guys you are drafting against and their draft tendencies, you could even do a mock where you guess who each player will take so you can give yourself an idea of who you are likely to be able to choose from.

 

my thought is there are 2 dominant strategies for the early rounds in this sort of draft:

 

1) win today. Draft like you would if it were a redraft.

2) pick players who you think will put you over the top in a year or two, but not necessarily today.

 

I'd draw up a plan for each strategy. if too many pick one strategy, then you may find better luck with the other one.

 

I guess that's the best I can offer for now with the limited info I have on your league.

[enis_44 0]

First of all we need to get our terminology correct. A two player keeper league is NOT a dynasty team, and the OP made no such claims. These are two completely different animals and should be approached as such. Since the OP is in a two player keeper league, I'll focus thoughts there:

 

Even with only two keepers, I have NO problem taking a top Qb and riding him like Seabiscuit for 5 years. People argue otherwise, but you simply can't just pick up some middle round schmo and plug him in every single week of every single year like we've been doing with Peyton and Brees and the other top guys. Ya, every season you COULD find someone who for one year will perform with these guys, but that's not the same thing as ripping off 5 ish or more years of top stress free performance.

 

That said, if you do go QB I'd hope to have the other keeper be a solid Rb. Once everyone keeps their 2 players each year, there's not gonna be much if any RB depth left to draft. Mostly rookies and other speculative buys. Rookie Rb's always go earlier than normal in this format because people want to hit a homerun on a keeper.

 

Last point, you can use the above to your advantage and annually pull a top shelf Wr for cheap when everyone else is Rb farming too early.

[Ray_T 598]

First of all we need to get our terminology correct. A two player keeper league is NOT a dynasty team, and the OP made no such claims. These are two completely different animals and should be approached as such. Since the OP is in a two player keeper league, I'll focus thoughts there:

 

Even with only two keepers, I have NO problem taking a top Qb and riding him like Seabiscuit for 5 years. People argue otherwise, but you simply can't just pick up some middle round schmo and plug him in every single week of every single year like we've been doing with Peyton and Brees and the other top guys. Ya, every season you COULD find someone who for one year will perform with these guys, but that's not the same thing as ripping off 5 ish or more years of top stress free performance.

 

That said, if you do go QB I'd hope to have the other keeper be a solid Rb. Once everyone keeps their 2 players each year, there's not gonna be much if any RB depth left to draft. Mostly rookies and other speculative buys. Rookie Rb's always go earlier than normal in this format because people want to hit a homerun on a keeper.

 

Last point, you can use the above to your advantage and annually pull a top shelf Wr for cheap when everyone else is Rb farming too early.

Yes, I think that if all the Top RB's go early, you grab a top QB and a Top WR, and then use 3rd , 4th & 5th round picks to grab RB's with potential to explode. My thought is to grab 3 guys with good upside on the cheap with the hope that 2 of them pan out and have good seasons.

 

At RB: in the third round, there are Shonne Greene (cheap handcuff in LT) Especially if the Jets indicate that Greene & LT will likely share carries. you can likely get LT very late, and greene in the 3rd or 4th round (depending on what the news is at the time of the draft)

 

You may be able to get Jonathan Stewart at this point too or possibly some of the higher profile rookies such as best or Matthews, or possibly even Mendinhall although your chances of getting Mendy at the end of round 3 would be slim.

 

some of these guys will be gone when you pick in round 3, but some will not. It really depends on your league. Most leagues are all over the map with respect to rookies, and it wouldnt surprise me if you could get a decent rookie on the cheap in round 5 or 6.

 

This is a know your league issue though. if you know what people are likely to take in the draft, it makes it a lot easier to predict.

[Gepetto 994]

Take the best player from the players below for your first four picks including at least 2 RBs and at least 1 WR. Plan ahead to anticipate which players will be available at the 3/4 turn to determine which position(s) offer more value.

 

Chris Johnson

Adrian Peterson

Maurice Jones-Drew

Ray Rice

Steven Jackson

Frank Gore

Michael Turner

Deangelo Williams

Rashard Mendenhall

Shonn Greene

Jamaal Charles

Ryan Mathews

Knowshawn Moreno

Ryan Grant

Pierre Thomas

Chris 'Beanie' Wells

Matt Forte

Joseph Addai

Felix Jones

Jonathan Stewart

 

Andre Johnson

Miles Austin

Brandon Marshall

Calvin Johnson

Randy Moss

Larry Fitzgerald

Roddy White

Reggie Wayne

DeSean Jackson

Vincent Jackson

Marques Colston

Sidney Rice

Steve Smith CAR

Greg Jennings

Anquan Boldin

 

Aaron Rodgers

Drew Brees

[RaiderHaters Revenge 3,622]

No they won't. That is my point. well maybe rivers...

 

There were 11 QB's in my league that put up 20+pts pg (Warner was one of them) so that leaves 10QB's with 20 ppg, Kolb should be right in that range as well

 

Rodgers (24.95 ppg) led the league

Brees (24.33)

 

10) Roethlisberger 20.91

 

Ill take me 2 rb' all day, a QB in the 3rd and in a very deep WR draft, wr 4th and 5th

 

Ill keep 2 Rb's going forward (if I have 2 quality guys) take the best avail QB in the 1st or 2nd of following years, and sell for draft picks any year I drop out of it

 

the 20th ranked RB was Fred Jackson at 12ppg, while CJ was at 22