Strategy and discussion for those picking number SIX overall.

[MDC 5,963]

Just got my draft order and it's 6. I'm not too bummed about it - I won my league last year picking toward the bottom of the 1st - but I think it's a tricky draft spot this year and worth a thread to discuss strategy with other owners of the sixth overall pick.

 

I think the Top 5 this year is pretty clear:

 

1a. AP

1b. CJ

3 -5. MJD, Rice, Gore

 

You could argue about AP vs. CJ for the top pick or any of the remaining big three from 3-5, but I think this will be the consensus Top 5 in most quality leagues.

 

Number 6 is where it gets tricky. In PPR leagues I think Andre Johnson is a clear #6 and may outperform some RBs chosen before him. He has fewer question marks than any other highly touted receiver and catches a ton of passes for a lot of yards. In standard leagues though this is a bit of a question mark.

 

You can take a top QB but there's very little different between the Top 3 QBs (Rodgers, Brees, Manning) so you're pretty much resigning yourself to not getting a value advantage over players drafting at the bottom of the 1st round. On the other hand, in big leagues (mine just bumped up to 14 teams) you'll have a huge advantage over teams that are forced to hope later round QBs like Kolb or E. Manning pan out in a big way.

 

The other strategy is to "reach" for a running back. The consensus #6 on the board now seems to be Michael Turner, but his ceiling is limited by his lack of receptions and I think Turner looks more like a solid #8-9 pick. I'm very high on Schonn Greene this year and I'd take him without hesitation at 9-10 overall, but I think #6 overall might be a stretch.

 

I think my strategy right now is to hope someone above me doesn't take one of the Top 5 backs. Assuming the draft falls the way I think it will, I'll probably try to trade down / switch draft positions to the 7-8 spot and land Turner or Greene. If that doesn't work out, I'll take Andre Johnson and hope a RB like Mendenhall or Charles falls to the 2nd; if not I'm hoping to get Tony Romo. I think he's the obvious #4 QB and not much worse than the three quarterbacks before him.

 

Interested in hearing your thoughts on the #6 spot this year?

[Turducken 0]

trade with the person who has the 4th pick.

[Joey Gladstone 33]

dont take Steven Jackson

[DC 9]

Just got my draft order and it's 6. I'm not too bummed about it - I won my league last year picking toward the bottom of the 1st - but I think it's a tricky draft spot this year and worth a thread to discuss strategy with other owners of the sixth overall pick.

 

I think the Top 5 this year is pretty clear:

 

1a. AP

1b. CJ

3 -5. MJD, Rice, Gore

 

You could argue about AP vs. CJ for the top pick or any of the remaining big three from 3-5, but I think this will be the consensus Top 5 in most quality leagues.

 

Number 6 is where it gets tricky. In PPR leagues I think Andre Johnson is a clear #6 and may outperform some RBs chosen before him. He has fewer question marks than any other highly touted receiver and catches a ton of passes for a lot of yards. In standard leagues though this is a bit of a question mark.

 

You can take a top QB but there's very little different between the Top 3 QBs (Rodgers, Brees, Manning) so you're pretty much resigning yourself to not getting a value advantage over players drafting at the bottom of the 1st round. On the other hand, in big leagues (mine just bumped up to 14 teams) you'll have a huge advantage over teams that are forced to hope later round QBs like Kolb or E. Manning pan out in a big way.

 

The other strategy is to "reach" for a running back. The consensus #6 on the board now seems to be Michael Turner, but his ceiling is limited by his lack of receptions and I think Turner looks more like a solid #8-9 pick. I'm very high on Schonn Greene this year and I'd take him without hesitation at 9-10 overall, but I think #6 overall might be a stretch.

 

I think my strategy right now is to hope someone above me doesn't take one of the Top 5 backs. Assuming the draft falls the way I think it will, I'll probably try to trade down / switch draft positions to the 7-8 spot and land Turner or Greene. If that doesn't work out, I'll take Andre Johnson and hope a RB like Mendenhall or Charles falls to the 2nd; if not I'm hoping to get Tony Romo. I think he's the obvious #4 QB and not much worse than the three quarterbacks before him.

 

Interested in hearing your thoughts on the #6 spot this year?

 

I am surprised by how often Turner or Andre Johnson is taken somewhere in slots 3, 4 or 5. That would leave you with Gore most likely whom I would grab in a NY minute for slot 6. But if it goes Johnson, Peterson, Jones-Drew, Rice, Gore, then I think I'd still go Turner. THey want him more involved in the passing game it has been reported and much less risk than Shonn Greene (who doesn't catch at all, BTW).

[MDC 5,963]

I am surprised by how often Turner or Andre Johnson is taken somewhere in slots 3, 4 or 5. That would leave you with Gore most likely whom I would grab in a NY minute for slot 6. But if it goes Johnson, Peterson, Jones-Drew, Rice, Gore, then I think I'd still go Turner. THey want him more involved in the passing game it has been reported and much less risk than Shonn Greene (who doesn't catch at all, BTW).

 

If any of the Top 5 RBs above fell to me at 6 I'd take him in a heartbeat. What I'm looking at then is:

 

1. Turner

2. AJohnson

3. QB

 

If I'm thinking with my head I've got to go Johnson. At least then I've got one player who's a safe bet to finish Top 5 at his position with a chance at #1. Also has far fewer red flags than some of the other highly rated receivers. I'm tempted to go QB because it's a 14 team league, and the difference between a top quarterback and the 14th is huge. On the other hand, if you take a QB in the first you're eliminating the chance of landing Romo in the 2nd (if you're lucky to have him fall) or Schaub / Brady in the 2nd/3rd rounds, not to mention some sleeper types.

 

It's a really tough draft spot.

[cheesesteaks 0]

I would take AJ without a doubt at the 6th spot even in standard leagues. After him I would go for Turner as I feel he will be solid this year and the schedule is not that difficult. Another option is SJax but I don't think he can hold up for a year. I'm not fond of getting a QB here since you can get a good one even in round 3 (Brady, Romo or Schaub).

[stonewall 647]

Here ya go:

 

Round 1 - AJ

Round 2 - Charles (or Grant if Charles is gone)

Round 3 - Pierre

Round 4 - Nicks

 

You are welcome.

[MDC 5,963]

Here ya go:

 

Round 1 - AJ

Round 2 - Charles (or Grant if Charles is gone)

Round 3 - Pierre

Round 4 - Nicks

 

You are welcome.

 

AJ - maybe. I'd say probably. I think my hesitation is the fact that I'm in a 14-team league, which would seem to drastically increase the value of the top QBs.

 

I'd grab Charles in a heartbeat at 23 overall if he's there. I have a feeling he'll be gone by then. Hopefully I'll end up with a few RB options in the 2nd.

 

Pierre - err, no. I'm just not convinced he's all that good or that he'll get enough touches to be worth that pick.

 

I really hope I have better options in Round 4 than Nicks.

[NAn 39]

AJ - maybe. I'd say probably. I think my hesitation is the fact that I'm in a 14-team league, which would seem to drastically increase the value of the top QBs.

 

I'd grab Charles in a heartbeat at 23 overall if he's there. I have a feeling he'll be gone by then. Hopefully I'll end up with a few RB options in the 2nd.

 

Pierre - err, no. I'm just not convinced he's all that good or that he'll get enough touches to be worth that pick.

 

I really hope I have better options in Round 4 than Nicks.

 

Especially in a 14 teamer MDC, think you're going to have to temper your expectations. from mocks I've done for my 16 teamer:

* It'll be close if Charles will be there, likely looking more like Grant, maybe Mathews though he's been climbing up draft boards. Actually in 14teamer Benson will likely be there but thnk that would be early.

* If you're thinking RB in 3rd and don't like Pierre, hope you like Moreno/Mccoy/Wells b/c that's what you'll be looking a (think Benson will be gone).

* And in 4th at WR you will be looking at group who slip b/c of various issues like Welker/VJax/Bowe or potential up and comers in Nicks/Harvin/Walker

 

* You know you're scoring better than me, but not sure if 12 v 14 will change your thinking that dramatically.

* If you did go QB/RB to start you'd likely be looking at Boldin/Smith(NYG) in 3rd

[NAn 39]

I have the 6th in my 12 teamer and here's my thinking:

* Top5 will be current usual suspects plus Gore...I'm in Bay Area and couple of niner fans ahead of me so feel confident about that.

(If Gore were to slip I'd grab him, but not high on him staying healthy for season <he's only done it one season> so would look to deal him early in season or just trade down toward bottom of 1st)

* If top5 goes as I think though, then I'll likely go AJ.

* In 2nd I feel confident I'll get Charles/Grant/DWill which I'd be comfortable with

* In 3rd things I'd open up a bit as far as options: Brady here wouldn't be bad, like if Benson fell, and actually like Pierre and think he'd be an option as well.

* And of course however I went would dictate the rest of draft: likely going with qb/rb/wr or rb/rb/wr (I would wait on a 3rd wr as I feel good about a few later round ones).

 

Of course, would be ready to adjust on fly, but right now that would be my framework plan.

[MDC 5,963]

Especially in a 14 teamer MDC, think you're going to have to temper your expectations. from mocks I've done for my 16 teamer:

* It'll be close if Charles will be there, likely looking more like Grant, maybe Mathews though he's been climbing up draft boards. Actually in 14teamer Benson will likely be there but thnk that would be early.

* If you're thinking RB in 3rd and don't like Pierre, hope you like Moreno/Mccoy/Wells b/c that's what you'll be looking a (think Benson will be gone).

* And in 4th at WR you will be looking at group who slip b/c of various issues like Welker/VJax/Bowe or potential up and comers in Nicks/Harvin/Walker

 

* You know you're scoring better than me, but not sure if 12 v 14 will change your thinking that dramatically.

* If you did go QB/RB to start you'd likely be looking at Boldin/Smith(NYG) in 3rd

 

I could absolutely live with something like Brees/Grant with my first two picks but not having a shot at a real boom or bust type RB in the earlier rounds will hurt. I'm very up on Charles and I'd love to get him round 2. I've seriously considered trying to trade down to 8-10 because I see so little difference between the 6th overall and the 10th this year, might as well give myself a better shot in Round 2. I think there's a lot of comparable talent in the late 1st / early 2nd and a few players who'll outperform some of the top picks. Greene / Charles would be my ideal 1-2 this year.

 

I know I should go with Andre Johnson but it just kills me to take a WR in the first. Then again, I took Fitz in the first last year and ended up winning my league, but that was a 10-teamer. In a 14-team league I feel like I'm going to need to hit paydirt in the first AND get a few major bargains in the later rounds.

 

Oh well, food for thought.

[NAn 39]

I could absolutely live with something like Brees/Grant with my first two picks but not having a shot at a real boom or bust type RB in the earlier rounds will hurt. I'm very up on Charles and I'd love to get him round 2. I've seriously considered trying to trade down to 8-10 because I see so little difference between the 6th overall and the 10th this year, might as well give myself a better shot in Round 2. I think there's a lot of comparable talent in the late 1st / early 2nd and a few players who'll outperform some of the top picks. Greene / Charles would be my ideal 1-2 this year.

 

I know I should go with Andre Johnson but it just kills me to take a WR in the first. Then again, I took Fitz in the first last year and ended up winning my league, but that was a 10-teamer. In a 14-team league I feel like I'm going to need to hit paydirt in the first AND get a few major bargains in the later rounds.

 

Oh well, food for thought.

 

 

Ideally I'd trade down as well as I'm also high on Greene and would pair with a DWill or Mendenhall (not so high on Charles, particularly as a early 2nd). Either way if you can I'd say that's your best option.

 

Personally I've already been trying to deal down, but I know owner at 11 likes Greene and guys at 9/10 are notorious hardballers when trading picks and they're doing same this year as well.

[stonewall 647]

 

 

Pierre - err, no. I'm just not convinced he's all that good or that he'll get enough touches to be worth that pick.

 

To each his own...but if Pierre is available as a RB2 in the 3rd of a 14 rounder, better jump. Last time I checked he is the RB1 on a prolific offense with no Mike Bell. During his "off year" last season, he amassed 1,200 total yards/39 receptions/8 TD's/5.4 ypc.....despite missing 2 games. That makes 20 TD's in 2 years with Bell as the "goal line back". After 5 years, are we still worried about Bushs role? Oh yes.....two words: Contract Year.

 

 

I really hope I have better options in Round 4 than Nicks.

 

 

As a WR2? I hope the guys in my league feel the same way you do! 800 yards/6 TD's during his rookie campain, despite battling for a starting spot and missing 2 games to injury, and battling wrist and hammy injuries in the last half of the season. Five of his 47 catches went for 40-plus yards last year, and he averaged 16.8 yards per catch, tied for sixth among all NFL receivers. Better options? I think not.

[MDC 5,963]

Ideally I'd trade down as well as I'm also high on Greene and would pair with a DWill or Mendenhall (not so high on Charles, particularly as a early 2nd). Either way if you can I'd say that's your best option.

 

Personally I've already been trying to deal down, but I know owner at 11 likes Greene and guys at 9/10 are notorious hardballers when trading picks and they're doing same this year as well.

 

I know I can trade down to 13 -- my bro-in-law got that pick and hates it. That would give me 13-16. I'd probably be able to land either Greene or a top QB along with DWill. That may be the strategy, what hurts is then waiting for a third round pick in the 40-something range, although I've had really good luck with mid-round sleepers. I'm going to give that some thought.

 

Anyway thanks for kicking ideas around, you really seem to know your sh1t.

[MDC 5,963]

To each his own...but if Pierre is available as a RB2 in the 3rd of a 14 rounder, better jump. Last time I checked he is the RB1 on a prolific offense with no Mike Bell. During his "off year" last season, he amassed 1,200 total yards/39 receptions/8 TD's/5.4 ypc.....despite missing 2 games. That makes 20 TD's in 2 years with Bell as the "goal line back". After 5 years, are we still worried about Bushs role? Oh yes.....two words: Contract Year.

 

 

 

 

As a WR2? I hope the guys in my league feel the same way you do! 800 yards/6 TD's during his rookie campain, despite battling for a starting spot and missing 2 games to injury, and battling wrist and hammy injuries in the last half of the season. Five of his 47 catches went for 40-plus yards last year, and he averaged 16.8 yards per catch, tied for sixth among all NFL receivers. Better options? I think not.

 

I haven't given either Thomas or Nicks a whole lot of thought but there are guys in the 3rd / 4th range I'd much rather have - several QBs should be available then along with Best, Boldin, etc.

[RSersen 0]

I haven't given either Thomas or Nicks a whole lot of thought but there are guys in the 3rd / 4th range I'd much rather have - several QBs should be available then along with Best, Boldin, etc.

 

If you take Boldin over Nicks you will regret it. Besides that, Boldin isn't worth his ADP this year; you'll get the same numbers from Mason 5+ rounds later.

 

As for the 6 hole, I did have one mock from there recently:

 

1. WR Andre Johnson (Gore went 5th)

2. RB Ryan Grant

3. RB Beanie Wells

4. TE Antonio Gates

5. WR Hakeem Nicks

6. RB Felix Jones

7. RB Javhid Best

8. WR Mike Wallace

9. QB Jay Cutler

10. WR Johnny Knox

11. RB Ahmad Bradshaw

12. QB Ben Roethlisberger

13. RB Willis McGahee

14. Steelers D/ST

15. WR Jabar Gaffney

16. K Mason Crosby

[cheesesteaks 0]

MDC the big issue you have to consider is how much value do you see in the top QBs. I see Rodgers as equal to Romo and Schaub. Then there is a dropoff with mid-tier QBs that have potential (Flacco, Kolb, Ryan, Cutler) but are risky. If that is the case then in a 14-team league I would go WR/RB or RB/WR and pick a QB in the 3rd round.

 

Otherwise, if you believe that the QBs in rounds 5-6 are good enough then you can go RB in the 3rd (Benson, Pierre Thomas, Wells, McCoy) and then go for a WR/TE in the 4th round (Harvin, Bowe, maybe a Steve Smith, Nicks, Wes Walker if recovered, Garcon or go for Gates or Vernon Davis if they are there).

 

The other option is to go for a WR in round 3 (Steve Smiths, Boldin, Crabtree, Ocho-Cinco) and hope that Felix Jones, Jahvid Best, Addai or Ronnie Brown fall to the 4th round.

[NAn 39]

If you take Boldin over Nicks you will regret it. Besides that, Boldin isn't worth his ADP this year; you'll get the same numbers from Mason 5+ rounds later.

 

As for the 6 hole, I did have one mock from there recently:

 

1. WR Andre Johnson (Gore went 5th)

2. RB Ryan Grant

3. RB Beanie Wells

4. TE Antonio Gates

5. WR Hakeem Nicks

6. RB Felix Jones

7. RB Javhid Best

8. WR Mike Wallace

9. QB Jay Cutler

10. WR Johnny Knox

11. RB Ahmad Bradshaw

12. QB Ben Roethlisberger

13. RB Willis McGahee

14. Steelers D/ST

15. WR Jabar Gaffney

16. K Mason Crosby

 

you have Boldin and Nicks projected to be that different?

 

and was this a 12 team draft?

b/c ADP I've seen:

Best 5th

Felix Jones 5th

Bradshaw 7th

[jdon 28]

If any of the Top 5 RBs above fell to me at 6 I'd take him in a heartbeat. What I'm looking at then is:

 

1. Turner

2. AJohnson

3. QB

 

If I'm thinking with my head I've got to go Johnson. At least then I've got one player who's a safe bet to finish Top 5 at his position with a chance at #1. Also has far fewer red flags than some of the other highly rated receivers. I'm tempted to go QB because it's a 14 team league, and the difference between a top quarterback and the 14th is huge. On the other hand, if you take a QB in the first you're eliminating the chance of landing Romo in the 2nd (if you're lucky to have him fall) or Schaub / Brady in the 2nd/3rd rounds, not to mention some sleeper types.

 

It's a really tough draft spot.

 

 

The thing about 6 - 8 isn't the first round, its planing for the next few rounds because 6-8 can go so many different ways.

1.) take turner, then next round you almost have to take a wide out

2.) take aj, then next round you can either go wide out or running back or quarterback (but if you don't take a back here you almost have to take one in the third round)

3.) go quarterback and you lose. I just don't think you can fill you running backs and wideouts from the middle of this draft if you go quarterback in the first (basic scoring rules apply).

 

I have the seven pick in a pretty big draft and barring something crazy I will be taking AJ or Moss and then the second round will determine the fate of my team. I intend to go BPA at pick 18 and am kind hoping for another knock out wide out...

 

good luck,

jdon

[ppierce 2]

if u love Greene this year at #9 take him at 6. who cares? he probably won't be there in 2nd round for you. the only reason you'd hesitate taking him at 6 is cause thats not where the consensus has him ranked and you'd worry about being scoffed at during your draft. if he's your best player in the draft at #6, take him.

[cheesesteaks 0]

I agree that you should take your best player available even if you reach for a player like Greene. In my case AJ is the safest pick at this spot and is my BPA and in the 2nd round I will get a RB that are of good value (Mathews, Charles, DeAngelo, Grant).

[MDC 5,963]

if u love Greene this year at #9 take him at 6. who cares? he probably won't be there in 2nd round for you. the only reason you'd hesitate taking him at 6 is cause thats not where the consensus has him ranked and you'd worry about being scoffed at during your draft. if he's your best player in the draft at #6, take him.

 

I'm not worried about being scoffed at and I see Greene as essentially a Turner clone. My only issue is that the #6 spot doesn't offer better value than the #10-12 this year. I would be just as happy taking Greene at #8 or even Manning at 12-13 as I'd be with AJohnson or Greene at 6, so why spend a higher pick than I need to on a player when I can get a higher selection in the 2nd?>