Draft Tendencies and Drafting With The Same People

[irishvic 0]

So this year I am in an interesting situation. I take in two leagues, one free (14 man) and one pay (10 man, not many want to pony up the entry fee or pay for waiver transactions). Obviously the money league takes priority over all.

 

The free draft took place last week and the money league is Monday night. The money league carries over 8 participants (including myself) from the free league.

 

I know my picks are based on my own various charts/rankings and guys I am targeting in various leagues so my question is this, how much stock would you put into the picks made by the 7 other participants? This is modern warfare with the guys so any advantage anyone can get is crucial.

[madd futher mucker 36]

I would think their tendencies will be re-evident in your new draft. It definitely pays to recall everything you can about that last draft, including the tabletalk. You will have a huge advantage if you put it to work for you.

 

I was in a similar situation recently. A free keeper league draft took place just prior to my money league draft. While I do not play in that league - I was there as a "consultant" to a friend - I do in fact play against about 6 or 7 of the same guys in the 12 team money league. I knew who my competition was targeting and pretty much what round they would pull the trigger on him. I sniped my share of their picks in the later rounds.

[WhiteWonder 2,196]

id be willing to bet that their tendencies are similar but not 100%. They are likely to take some chances, draft some players they are not as high on, and generally draft outside their box because money is not on the line.

 

for example, in the free "12 geek 1 cup" league, i drafted a TE earlier than I normally do, just because... That guy was Dallas Clark. Don't hate the pick now but don't love it. Do I care? not really. No money on the line and i was trying a different approach. I'm still trying to win but were there money on the line I would likely have gone back to my comfort zone.

[GridironGuzzlers 3]

I just jabbed an icepick in my retina. You are really concerned about this?

[De Novo 0]

I just jabbed an icepick in my retina. You are really concerned about this?

What is your problem? It's a valid question. I think you can put a lot of stock into it, especially with players who you might feel are "overdrafted", high risers, or are polarizing players. If they take MJD at 1.10, you can be reasonably sure there's a good chance they'll take him at 2.03. If they took Felix Jones at 3.10, you can assume they'll take him at or before 4.03, etc.

[montana 89]

10 team work league PPR $ .....

After finishing mid-pack for the 2nd year in a row I decided to pull the last 2 years draft results (still had both sticker boards). Amazingly enough I did see a trend with 3 owners doing the same thing both years (rb/wr/qb..in that order).

But the thing that was even more interesting was seeing how I reacted. I didn't realize it but I was making rookie mistakes. I was getting caught up in the runs towards the end of them & could never recoup. I'd pass on a top 10-15 WR to take the 6-8th ranked TE (in a PPR), etc..... Just because I felt the urgency of being stuck with crap at TE (or whatever position).

I've been playing since 93 & thought those days of streaking were well behind me, but this really opened my eyes.

It's too hard to gauge the tendencies of others. The one thing that is a constant & absolute factor in every draft that you do is .....YOU!

Pull a few past drafts & analyze them. Looking not only at their selections, but especially yours. You may be surprised more by your tendencies over anything else.

I learned to go after the players that I felt were the difference makers, not to hope they landed on me. Go after the draft, don't wait for it to come to you.

 

Good Luck!

[steel827 2]

I would look at where those same teams are drafting compared to your free league. The makeup of somebody's team that drafted at the beginning of the free league will be different than the $$ league at the backend. However, where you might see a trend is rounds 5+. Those players still available will be the same guys no matter what the draft position. Say team 1 picked Ben Tate in the 9th round in the free league. You can pretty much assume Tate will be on his radar again.

 

I can only speak for myself, but I am highly competitive. If I am in a free league (I am not), I will not throw my draft hoping to throw somebody off. I am in 2 $$ leagues and there are some crossovers between leagues. I do pay attention to who they picked in the later rounds.

 

Good luck

[irishvic 0]

I just jabbed an icepick in my retina. You are really concerned about this?

For the amount we play for I am concerned about every single thing pertaining to the draft. If you aren't you have zero business playing for money.

[jgcrawfish 232]

10 team work league PPR $ .....

After finishing mid-pack for the 2nd year in a row I decided to pull the last 2 years draft results (still had both sticker boards). Amazingly enough I did see a trend with 3 owners doing the same thing both years (rb/wr/qb..in that order).

But the thing that was even more interesting was seeing how I reacted. I didn't realize it but I was making rookie mistakes. I was getting caught up in the runs towards the end of them & could never recoup. I'd pass on a top 10-15 WR to take the 6-8th ranked TE (in a PPR), etc..... Just because I felt the urgency of being stuck with crap at TE (or whatever position).

I've been playing since 93 & thought those days of streaking were well behind me, but this really opened my eyes.

It's too hard to gauge the tendencies of others. The one thing that is a constant & absolute factor in every draft that you do is .....YOU!

Pull a few past drafts & analyze them. Looking not only at their selections, but especially yours. You may be surprised more by your tendencies over anything else.

I learned to go after the players that I felt were the difference makers, not to hope they landed on me. Go after the draft, don't wait for it to come to you.

 

Good Luck!

 

Every year before my $$$ draft I go back and look over the previous 2 drafts in that league. I also like to talk to a couple of the guys before it starts because I know they play in other leagues and I try to gleam some info from their other drafts. I use the CCDB from this very website and it allows me to see what teams have what players at what positions and about round 4-5 I'm pretty well honed in on what people in the league are looking for before they come up. I try guess at their pick about 3 picks ahead of them for everybody. Amazingly, I get probably 50-70% of their picks right a few picks ahead of them actually making the pick. I'm a trash talker, but I get really quiet during middle part of the draft because, to me, that's where the money picks are made. I'll talk it up early and late, but 4-8 or so are the picks that matter to me, and where I want to be a step ahead.

[doughboys_2002 11]

Every year before my $$$ draft I go back and look over the previous 2 drafts in that league. I also like to talk to a couple of the guys before it starts because I know they play in other leagues and I try to gleam some info from their other drafts. I use the CCDB from this very website and it allows me to see what teams have what players at what positions and about round 4-5 I'm pretty well honed in on what people in the league are looking for before they come up. I try guess at their pick about 3 picks ahead of them for everybody. Amazingly, I get probably 50-70% of their picks right a few picks ahead of them actually making the pick. I'm a trash talker, but I get really quiet during middle part of the draft because, to me, that's where the money picks are made. I'll talk it up early and late, but 4-8 or so are the picks that matter to me, and where I want to be a step ahead.

 

I would think that in a free league you would take a few more chances then you would in your $$$ league. Your money isn't on the line so you can stretch a little more. When there is money involved I imagine you would play it a little safer, go with a less risk player. I can't go back and look at the draft results from the past few years because my league drafts different every year. I am the only one that drarfts the same style every year. What stinks is Tiki's have the same players in mind and snipes them before me. The last two seasons I have had to draft 4 teams, and 3 teams this year, so my team suffers because I try to help the teams I am drafting for. Next season I won't be so nice!

[worm 34]

Every year before my $$$ draft I go back and look over the previous 2 drafts in that league.

I was able to form some of my draft strategy from doing that. This is the 5th year I've been in my friends' league, and I looked over our previous drafts before we drafted this past Friday. I was picking in the 7-spot (10-teams) and noticed that one guy behind me has gone WR/WR the last 2 years (and he always takes a TE early), and another one went WR/WR a couple years ago. My pick came and no WR's had been drafted yet, and I knew I wanted a top-5 receiver, so I went with AJ. Sure enough, by my next pick 4 more WR's (and 2 QB's) were gone and I was left with the same RB choices I had at 7. Knowing your opponents' tendencies can be very helpful.

[jgcrawfish 232]

I was able to form some of my draft strategy from doing that. This is the 5th year I've been in my friends' league, and I looked over our previous drafts before we drafted this past Friday. I was picking in the 7-spot (10-teams) and noticed that one guy behind me has gone WR/WR the last 2 years (and he always takes a TE early), and another one went WR/WR a couple years ago. My pick came and no WR's had been drafted yet, and I knew I wanted a top-5 receiver, so I went with AJ. Sure enough, by my next pick 4 more WR's (and 2 QB's) were gone and I was left with the same RB choices I had at 7. Knowing your opponents' tendencies can be very helpful.

 

yeah, just doing a little research has shown me that the guy who drafts similarly to me like to go TE early, and usually targets Gates (helps that he's an SD fan as well). He also likes the idea of two stud TE's if he can get them. When Gates went a few picks before he could take him (in the 4th) I knew that he was going to go with Finley on his next pick, even though it was still 10 picks away. However, since it was PPR, I actually had Witten higher on my list than Finley. I had Witten queued up before he selected Finley in the 5th AND knew the guy in between us likely going to take Santonio Holmes because he was very happy to have had him in his other league when I talked to him the day before. AND I could also see that he was was needing to fill out his WR core. Doing a little bit of homework, being aware of the other teams roster, and paying attention can help you score some value on draft day.