2011 Interactive Blog - The fat lady has sung!

[madd futher mucker 36]

You are starting Tavarris Jackson on the road?

 

I don't think I could ever endorse starting Tavarris over Schaub, Cutler, or Big Ben. But in any given week, anything could happen. That's definitely rolling the dice though.

 

This is all under review. I had my doubts early whether Ben would play this week, but I see he practiced in full today and is likely GTG, so he'll probably start for my team.

 

But I'm not liking any of the match-ups regardless, and I doubt whether Houston will either need or want Schaub to air it out this week - I foresee lots of Foster and ground control in that one. But I'll study all of these match-ups in greater detail over then next few days, then make my decision. I will probably hold my nose and start Schaub. I agree that one good game by Jackson is very little for me to get too excited about. (I paid almost nothing to pick him up in all of my leagues.)

 

I'll let you guys know what I concluded.

[madd futher mucker 36]

There was am intriguing thread earlier "This guy could make or break your season". That seems a bit strong, but the publicity he got today in the KC press from Haley, induced me to pick him up in two of my leagues (Teams 1 and 2). This pick-up was (like the T Jackson pick-up - now dropped from Team 1), both speculative and pre-emptive. It also didn't cost me anything (except another transaction closer to the season transaction limit for team 2).

 

I couldn't believe when I saw that he was already acquired earlier in the evening in my other two leagues.

[O'ky 0]

Whats your thoughts on Roethlisberger for the rest of the season? Buy low? The potential is there. The line and run game is not.

[madd futher mucker 36]

Whats your thoughts on Roethlisberger for the rest of the season? Buy low? The potential is there. The line and run game is not.

 

I've neither upgraded nor downgraded, and I expect about the same as he's been. He can take a pounding, and he has the WRs to make the passing game tick. He's still in the top range of the 2nd tier of QBs.

[O'ky 0]

I've neither upgraded nor downgraded, and I expect about the same as he's been. He can take a pounding, and he has the WRs to make the passing game tick. He's still in the top range of the 2nd tier of QBs.

 

Same as he has been, as in how he has been the previous years, or this season?

[madd futher mucker 36]

You are starting Tavarris Jackson on the road?

 

I don't think I could ever endorse starting Tavarris over Schaub, Cutler, or Big Ben. But in any given week, anything could happen. That's definitely rolling the dice though.

 

Just in case you were wondering Stew, I started Schaub in Team 4 and Ben in Team 2. Some guys go stick with their first gut reaction, but I find out that is usually wrong for me. I think about my starters right up until gametime.

[madd futher mucker 36]

As bad as my teams performed last week (or was it poor roster decisions by me?) it was just the opposite this week.

I had two games won by Sunday night. Tonight I had Best and Forte going against Stafford in one league, and Best against Knox in another with some ground to make up. Both my RBs did what they were supposed to do. That 88 yard TD run by Best was a thing of beauty and clinched both matches. So I won all four this week, and have an entirely better outlook.

 

For the record, Team 1, my redraft went to 3 - 2, Team 2, the deep keeper is now 4-1, Team 3 - my dynasty team is still unbeaten at 5 - 0, and my Friends and Family keeper got its first win of the season.

 

Unlike last week, most of my roster decisions this week were right on the money, helping me survive without having some of my normal starters at WR due to bye weeks. Some late pick-ups, Doug Baldwin and Kevin Walter contributed a combined 46 FPTs to help me get by a tough opponent in my dynasty league. I also picked up but didn't start Jackie Battle in the Redraft and the Deep Keeper.

[madd futher mucker 36]

After my 4 - 0 redemption last weekend, I feel slightly more qualified to dispense with some fantasy advice again this week. It is safe to say that most of you don’t read this blog to find out how my teams did, but instead pick up an insight here or there that might help your fantasy season. So I try my best to provide that and you can maybe even learn from my mistakes (insert Tarvarris Jackson here).

 

Here goes some general discussion about how to building a fantasy team that applies equally to dynasty, keeper, and re-draft leagues. Regardless of format, putting together the very best team possible requires using all of the tools in your fantasy toolbox: draft strategy, waiver wire strategy, trade strategy, and weekly roster management. Since we are well past the draft, let’s discuss some elements of waiver and trade strategy that don’t get discussed too much. I’ll also name a few targets from either the waiver wire or trade.

 

As much as I love to trade, waiver pick-ups are the best and fastest way to impact your team. For nothing more than the cost of a roster acquisition (I’ve already discussed blind bid strategy) you can shore up a position weakness, solve a bye week problem, and occasionally land an impact player that can lead you to the championship. Being able to assess correctly the value of your acquisitions is extremely important, especially if there is a cost attached in terms of blind bid dollars or transaction limits. So too is becoming adept at pre-emptive pick-ups - something I’ve learned through years of having low waiver priority or limited waiver dollars. Seldom will you be able to acquire a guy the week he breaks out. You want to practice being at least two weeks ahead of your competition at the waiver wire. Part of the art of pre-emptive pick-ups is studying the NFL rosters looking for trends that show potential changes within each team. You won’t always be right, but you will most often get your guy, and for a lot less than it would otherwise cost you.

 

My top pre-emptive waiver wire target this week was Mark Clayton, who will be coming off PUP for the game week 8. Remember last year in his 1st 4 games as a Ram before he got hurt, he caught 22 passes for 300 yards and 2 TDs. He should again become the #1WR in that offense by default. Others are Delanie Walker (SF will use more two TE sets with loss of Josh Morgan, and they will split him out wide), Delone Carter (he’s the guy to own as a flex fill-in in the INDY backfield, not Donald Brown), Steve Breaston (getting enough targets to become a reliable bye week filler) and Doug Baldwin (except that I picked him up I picked up last week). Others (if they are available) would be Greg Little, and Marshawn Lynch. I know you are far too late in picking up a Tim Tebow or Jackie Battle. If they are still available cheaply in your league, please pm me. I want to join your league next year!

 

When it comes to trades, make sure to spreadsheet and update every roster in your league with bye weeks noted. I try to put out at least a new trade a week in every one of my leagues. Part of the art of trading is communication. I’m an old school guy who likes to pick up the phone and get to know the other owners in my league. Get to know who likes to talk football, who like to text, who prefers email….then just talk football. Guys just don’t work the trade lines enough. Get to know the other owners as PEOPLE, and you will have much more success in trading with them. Then start kicking around trade possibilities, even if you are not targeting any specific player. I‘ve found that it pays sometimes to ask directly what would it take to pick up a Crabtree? Sometimes it starts an offer/counter-offer dialog that ends in a trade. Occasionally their response is less than what you were prepared to offer. But always maintain your integrity. And remember to have patience. About one out of every 8 trade offers I make end up in a trade. This week I’ve made none so far.

 

Some players I might have on my trade target list are: Rashard Mendenhall, Mike Williams TB, (now is a great buy-low time), Michael Crabtree (I believe this is the last week you might get him cheap), Brandon Lloyd (ditto), Greg Little (Cleveland will be getting him more involved in their offense going forward), Sam Bradford (he’s the ultimate buy-low right now and as I mentioned, Clayton will soon be back), and Matt Ryan (the same guys who specifically targeted him too high in their drafts are the ones post likely to pull the plug on him now.

 

Let's get to the teams:

My Team 1 PPR redraft team added Mark Clayton this week. The team is now 3 - 2. It starts 1QB, 2 RBs, 2 WRs, 2 Flexes RB/WR/TE, D/ST, K. I hate it that Julio got hurt, because Moss has a very tough match-up this week. But I've probably got little choice except to play him and hope for the best. This weeks (probable starters bolded):

Brees, Newton, Witten, Gronkowski, Suisham, SF

ADP, Best, M Bush, Battle

Bryant, S Moss, Julio, D Moore, L Moore, Parker, Clayton

 

On my 4 - 1 Team 2 Deep Keeper, This is a 10 team Standard Scoring league that starts 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WRs, 1 TE, 1 RB/WR/TE Flex, 1 K; Again i picked up Mark Clayton, dropping Bilol Powell, and swapped out my kicker. With the hamstring injury to Julio, I might just start both OAK WRs unless I can somehow find a better option. I'm playing a VERY tough match-up this week, so I really need the fantasy gods to smile on me to pull this one out. My probable starters (bold) will be:

Schaub, Cutler, Tebow, V Davis, Hernandez, Cook, Bailey

Forte, Best, Wells, P Thomas, Powell, K. Williams, Tai Jones

Nicks, S Rice, Julio, D Moore, Ford, Clayton

 

Team 3, the Fat Bastards PPR dynasty league team is now 5 - 0, but is going against by far the best team in the league this week. The league scores 1.5 FPTs for Tes and gives return points to position players. Again I added Mark Clayton and re-acquired Suisham. We start 1 QB, 2 RBs, 3 WRs, 1 TE, 1 RB/WR/TE Flex, 1 D/ST, 1 K. Earnest Graham will get his 1st start. Here’s my team:

Eli, Freeman, Finley, Olsen, Suisham, SF

Bradshaw, De Williams, F Jax, McGahee, E Graham

Bryant, S Moss, D Moore, D Baldwin, Branch, Clayton, Cribbs, Cobb, Walter

 

Lastly, my Team 4 Friends and Family Smack Talk Keeper PPR is looking for its 2nd win this week. In addition to Clayton this week, I picked up Tim Tebow. I wish I could tell you I didn’t overlook picking him up for nothing last week, and so I don’t want to admit how much I paid to get him). I also picked up the Cincy D, and re-acquired Greg Little. I’ve given up on Dexter McCluster and Jacoby Ford in this league. We start 1 QB, 2 RBs, 2 WRs, 1 TE, a RB/WR Flex, K and a D/ST and I‘ll probably start (bold):

Big Ben, Bradford, Tebow, Finley, Cook, Kasay, Cincy

Foster, MJD, F Jones, Stewart

Bowe, S Moss, Little, Julio, Clayton

 

Just to spend a minute on Tebow, as there is a LOT of discussion about his fantasy value on the bored this week. I believe that many are far UNDER-estimating his fantasy potential the rest of this year. I’d consider him to be a mid-range QB1 in a 12 team league, less consistent perhaps, but on a par with an Eli Manning or Ben. His upside will be Cam Newton type fantasy numbers in some games to go with a few stinkers along the way.

 

I really appreciate the line-up questions Stewburtx8 poses here. He is almost like a line-up quality control guy for me.

 

Since there was so much food for thought thrown out this week, I really hope others of you will join in with some questions or comments in return. Given my match-ups this week, I'll need the help of the fantasy gods, and I'll be happy if I go 3 - 1. And here’s wishing that all of you have the fantasy gods on your side this week too.

[O'ky 0]

Thoughts on Jon Baldwin out of KC? Coming back from injury, supposed to be very talented. Could be another pre-emptive pickup.

[madd futher mucker 36]

Thoughts on Jon Baldwin out of KC? Coming back from injury, supposed to be very talented. Could be another pre-emptive pickup.

 

I don't even have him as a consideration for a dynasty league, much less a redraft. I didn't even want him as a dynasty rookie WR.

 

Yes he is big and straight-line fast, and he would make a good redzone target. He has build-up speed rather than quicks. He's been known as a diva, but not as a hard worker. He rounds out his routes rather than making precise cuts. COULD he be a viable pro? Yes, if he works hard at his game, the talent is there. But not this year, and for him to succeed will require a big change between the ears.

 

Pyrite. The rookie WR named Baldwin to own this year is Doug, especially in PPR.

[VinegarStrokes 0]

I started this reply to question your decision of Newton over Brees. Oh wait... I considered starting Newton over Brady last week and could not pull the trigger. I lost by 3 points!

[Stewburtx8 67]

The biggest thing that jumps out at me with your lineups this week is on Team 1. You are starting Rob Gronkowski and Preston Parker over Jason Witten? I can not EVER see benching Jason Witten in a PPR league. I assume this league gives points for return yards and that is why Parker is in your lineup? I'm not sure what the exact scoring system is to make a determination on Parker vs Gronk, but I can't see benching Jason Witten for either of them. He gets 10 targets a game and there is no reason to believe Dallas doesn't throw like crazy against the NE defense. FWIW, I'd start Witten over S.Moss this week too. Just my opinion.

[We Tigers 71]

Gotta agree with Stew there.

 

Speaking of pickups--Clayton makes a lot of sense, but I'm still curious about Danario Alexander. His targets have been very steady (at least 7 in all three games) and his snap count has been trending upward. He's still out there in my leagues, and I'm somewhat inclined to grab him this week. I think there's another week of time before Clayton starts getting grabbed heavily. Do you think Clayton starts being the target leader at Alexander's expense, or is there room for both against a very soft schedule the rest of the year? I was skeptical because of the leg tied together with bakery string, but he's held up so far.

 

I might add Decker to the trade target list, too. Coming off his worst game of the year, on a bye, with a mix of Tebow optimism and skepticism out there...I'd be looking at him whether or not Lloyd gets moved.

[VinegarStrokes 0]

I can see starting Gronk over Witten. Pats seem to try to shut down opposing TE's this year.

[Stewburtx8 67]

I can see starting Gronk over Witten. Pats seem to try to shut down opposing TE's this year.

 

 

The Patriots shut down a very gimpy Antonio Gates in Week 2 with double and triple teams. Besides that, they have not faced any TE worth noting, especially not one of Witten's caliber. Dallas has Miles Austin back this week. When an offense has Dez Bryant, Miles Austin, Felix Jones, and Jason Witten, I don't know why a team would just focus on taking away Witten. If anything I would try to take away the big plays to the WR's, and give them the underneath stuff to Witten. At this point, the only TE I would consider starting over Witten in PPR in ANY week is Jimmy Graham.

[madd futher mucker 36]

Again, nice catch, Stew. There is no way I won't start Witten in that contest. I bolded the wrong name, In fact I agree that the shark move is to start both Witten and Gronk. I think Moss will do ok coming out of the slot aginst Rogers-Cromartie, but I think Parker sits this week. Here's my line-up now:

Brees, Newton, Witten, Gronkowski, Suisham, SF

ADP, Best, M Bush, Battle

Bryant, S Moss, Julio, D Moore, L Moore, Parker, Clayton

[madd futher mucker 36]

Gotta agree with Stew there.

 

Speaking of pickups--Clayton makes a lot of sense, but I'm still curious about Danario Alexander. His targets have been very steady (at least 7 in all three games) and his snap count has been trending upward. He's still out there in my leagues, and I'm somewhat inclined to grab him this week. I think there's another week of time before Clayton starts getting grabbed heavily. Do you think Clayton starts being the target leader at Alexander's expense, or is there room for both against a very soft schedule the rest of the year? I was skeptical because of the leg tied together with bakery string, but he's held up so far.

 

I might add Decker to the trade target list, too. Coming off his worst game of the year, on a bye, with a mix of Tebow optimism and skepticism out there...I'd be looking at him whether or not Lloyd gets moved.

 

Alexander would make a good plug and play this week (knees willing). He cannot be counted on as a weekly starter because his knees are week-to-week. Decker is quite speculative to me with Tebow as QB.

[madd futher mucker 36]

a hectic work schedule meant I haven't been able to focus on fantasy football much at all. This year has been a roller-cosaster ride as far as week-to-week results are concerned. After going perfect for week 5, week 6 was another disaster. I lost two very close Matches in the 4th qaurter of Monday night's game to go 1 - 3 for the week.

 

My Team 1 Redraft team is now a disappointing 3 - 3. My only win was in my Team 2 Deep Keeper league, where I beat the WhiteWonder, and I'm now 5 - 1. I also am 5 - 1 in my Dynasty league after absorbing a beating last week. Finally, there was a heartbreaker in the Team 4 Family and Friends, to drop me into a deep hole 1 - 5.

 

I was also disappointed that I made only one trade last week, and I overpaid. But getting Denario Alexander to plug and play last week helped me to my only win, even if it meant letting Jackie Battle go. All of my other offers were declined. I sure would have liked to have snagged Crabtree. Is Carson Palmer worth picking up now that he's been traded to Oakland? Yes, of course he is - but only as a QB2.

 

Well, I hope I have more time to prep for week 7, and sure hope your weekend went better than mine did.

[stonewall 647]

Rough week sounds like. Sorry to hear it. Luckily, a lot of ball yet to play and your edge of resolve and work ethic will shine forth in the end. Great call on Alexander btw. After our conversation, he served me well in 2 leagues this week where I was in need of a plug and play WR. I managed a 4-2 week, shoulda been 5-1, but lost a close heart breaker when Manningham dropped a TD pass and had another called back. That guy has been beyond frustrating and has cost me 2 games this season with drops.

 

What is your take on the Lloyd move. Rams have been a WR fantasy nightmare. I am sure he will be the #1 option, but there are still 2 good options already there, with 2 other when you include Kendricks and Clayton. Also, Decker becomes an interesting option in Denver, and is available in a couple of leagues.

 

I predict a 3-1 week for you coming up.

[madd futher mucker 36]

Yea thanks Stoney, better weeks are ahead.

 

I really like this for St L, and would try to shake Lloyd away from his owner now. This will breathe new life into the Rams offense. Lloyd will be a stud. Danario on the other side will be a very productive 1b when his knees allow. Salas showed what he was doing every week in Hawaii and in the all-star game. I just picked him up in my PPR league (will be writing about my pick-ups and thoughts tomorrow. The only one that loses value here is Mark Clayton.

[madd futher mucker 36]

The Brandon Lloyd trade to the Rams really shuffled the deck, and the St Louis offense no longer looks like the Titanic. Unfortunately my pre-emptive acquisition of Mark Clayton in every league did not foresee this trade going down, and Clayton loses huge value. I again predict that Lloyd will be a stud in that offense and the Rams passing game will finally start to click. So this looks like a “buy low” moment for Lloyd, Alexander, Salas - even S Jackson - but especially Sam Bradford. The train is leaving the station, folks - and we want to be on it! ... It looks like I need to get some different trade offers out.

 

Speaking of trade offers, scheming up trade offers takes both time and energy. Some trades only make sense if viewed through the unique prism of those owners involved in the trade. I have seen trades that appeared on the surface to make no sense for an owner, but each owner has their own plan for their team. That is why I’m so opposed to the judgmental vetoes of others, done in the name of ‘competitive balance.’ Oftentimes league vote vetos are done, not because the trade didn’t benefit both owners involved, but because the perception was that one of the owners improved his team ’too much’ relative to the other owners in the league.

 

When discussing trading last week, I mainly focused on establishing rapport with your trading partner. In addition to that, I've come up with eight rules to make you a better trader. See if you agree:

1. Be persistent.

2. Send out offers constantly, even if only as ‘feelers‘. You never know what trade is just around the corner.

3. Constantly remind yourself that people have different values on players, and positions. We are all guilty of not making an offer because we don't think the owner will be interested. Always err on the side of making that offer - you will often be surprised.

4. There is nothing wrong with a starting point that favors your team - you need to start somewhere with trade offers, but starting with an extremely lopsided trade offer only ruins your credibility with the other owners

5. Conversely, don't get "offended" at any offer made to you. Instead, keep your cool and the lines of communication open. I’m often guilty of dismissing ridiculous trade offers with sarcasm. I need to constantly remind myself to simply comment that “I don’t think we are close enough on value to continue.“ Because (rarely) (a) the owner will send me a counter that is a lot closer and a deal sometimes gets done, and (b ) if I respond with sarcasm, chances are that my future opportunities to trade with that owner will be lost. It just doesn't make sense to eliminate any potential trade partner just because he made an insulting offer. It pays to always take the high road.

6. Always respond promptly to trade offers made to you. ‘Icing’ a trade offer is rarely a good idea.

7. It is vital to think about the needs of the other team and to try to help upgrade that team when trading. Don't be afraid to "lose" a trade by giving up too much once in a while. Become the owner that everyone looks to first because of your reputation for trading fairly.

8. In particular, don't be afraid to "overpay" for a stud. I think all of us sometimes find that hard to do, but in the long run, you will probably have gotten a bargain. Remember, studs should cost a lot because they win you championships.

 

Moving to my teams and roster moves so far this week, as you can see, I’m not counting on Best or Julio for week 7.

I added Steve Breaston and the DEN D in Team 1 PPR redraft team this week, dropping Clayton and L Moore. The team is 3 - 3 and starts 1QB, 2 RBs, 2 WRs, 2 Flexes RB/WR/TE, D/ST, K. This weeks (probable starters bolded):

Brees, Newton, Witten, Gronkowski, Suisham, DEN, SF

ADP, Best, M Bush, Battle

Bryant, S Moss, Julio, D Moore, Breaston, Parker

 

Team 2, my Deep Keeper, is 5 - 1 and goes against the only 6 - 0 team left, who incidentally is in my division. I need to knock him off! This is a 10 team Standard Scoring league that starts 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WRs, 1 TE, 1 RB/WR/TE Flex, 1 K; I have a pleasant problem of who I’ll start at QB here. So my probable starters ( bold) will be:

Schaub??, Cutler??, Tebow??, V Davis, Hernandez, Cook, Bailey

Forte, Best, Wells, P Thomas, Powell, K. Williams, Tai Jones

Nicks, S Rice, Julio, D Moore, Ford, Brown, Alexander, Benn

 

Team 3, the Fat Bastards PPR dynasty league team, also now 5 - 1, acquired Greg Salas and DEN, dropping Clayton and MINN. This is the league that scores 1.5 FPTs for TEs and gives return points to position players. We start 1 QB, 2 RBs, 3 WRs, 1 TE, 1 RB/WR/TE Flex, 1 D/ST, 1 K. Here’s my team:

Eli, Freeman, Finley, Olsen, Suisham, DEN, SF

Bradshaw, De Williams, F Jax, McGahee, E Graham

Bryant, S Moss, D Moore, D Baldwin, Branch, Cribbs, Cobb, Walter, Salas

 

Lastly, my 1 - 5 Team 4 Friends and Family Smack Talk Keeper PPR only picked up the Dallas D, again dropping Clayton this week. I’m pretty sure that I’ll start Ben over Tebow and Bradford. We start 1 QB, 2 RBs, 2 WRs, 1 TE, a RB/WR Flex, K and a D/ST. So I‘ll probably start (bold):

Big Ben, Bradford, Tebow, Finley, Cook, Kasay, Dallas, Cincy

Foster, MJD, F Jones, Stewart,

Bowe, S Moss, Little, Julio

 

Please give me your thoughts on my eight rules for better trading, and better yet....help me expand it to ten!

I’ll probably post this in open forum sometime in the near future. In the meantime, let’s all get back on the winning track this weekend.

[O'ky 0]

I like the rules, they have helped me this year. On the overpaying for the stud thing, I think it's also worth pointing out that your bench doesn't get you points, so it can pay off to have a top heavy team? Especially if you play the wire well. Maybe overpaying to everyone else isn't really overpaying.

[O'ky 0]

I posted about this in another thread, wanted to get your thoughts. This year I've been carrying two or three wide receivers every week, and once the bye week is gone on my top two guys I'll only carry 2...unless I can get a legit one in a trade. I've been using all the space for RB gambles. I do this because it seems like wide receivers are generally easy to come by on the waivers and there is a wide range of people who any week could show up. But also because it seems really hard to predict their matchups, I have two top 15 guys now and I just start them every week without thought of the matchup unless its NYJ, PHI, or CLE. It's so hard to predict how the teams will cover the wide receivers that the matchups are impossible for me to look at. Last week New England was apparently switching coverage in the redzone to take D Bryant out of the situation, can't predict that. However running backs if they have a good matchup such as vs IND. You know they are guaranteed some points with upside. Much easier to predict. Also running backs being hard to come by are much more valuable roster spots IMO. I have 8 RBs on my roster all with value. Looking to package them to a RB weak team for upgrades. Running backs are also guaranteed touches, and a lot more of them. Am I thinking this right? Is there purpose in carrying a third receiver if he isn't a top 20 guy (we only start 2)?

[O'ky 0]

Also when do you start targeting players for the playoffs and who do you target? Daniel Thomas has a nice playoff schedule and could be gotten for cheap right now.

[madd futher mucker 36]

I'll respond to each of your posts in order, O'ky:

 

1. I'm glad you found the trading 'rules' helpful, although in retrospect, 'rules' sounds a little rigid. I developed these ideas over time, and have taped them to my filing cabinet next to my computer. And if I don't look at them from time to time and remind myself to follow them, I get lazy about putting out trades. Similarly, like many of you, I often get "insulting" offers, and as many have seen in my posts, I can get a bit sarcastic sometimes. So when I get a bad offer, it helps to have a non-sarcastic 'programmed' response at hand that keeps communication open and doesn't burn bridges.

 

I must admit I was surprised and a little disappointed that there was so little comment or feedback on this topic. Most of my posts in this blog are about strategy, because I believe that game theory strategy and implementation has a major impact on the relationship between luck and skill in fantasy football.

So thanks for the post.

 

2. Regarding your RB/WR strategy, as I understand it, you carry 9 RBs: Rice, Mathews, Benson, Ingram, Addai, Battle, M. Morris, M. Bush, D. Murray;

and only two WRs, R. White, D Bryant in a start-2 WR league using a RB as your flex. This is an interesting strategy that I've never tried and so I can't really comment on it. I can see some advantages and some pitfalls, but it seems that your success with it depends on factors such as how your waiver wire system is run, and how easy or hard it might be to work a trade in your league. It just seems to me that injuries and bye weeks would make this a hard thing to work.

 

But keep me posted as the season progresses and let me know how this works out. If anyone else has done something like this, please chime in. I'm always looking for an edge.

 

3. Usually every year by about week 6, I start to more closely identify players to target for weeks 14-16. It is never too early to consider play-off implications of your player acquisitions. This is a great subject for next week's discussion.

[prancers 0]

I hadn't checked this board in a while and didn't know this blog existed. Interesting and I'll try to keep up with it. I can tell we are going in pretty different directions strategy-wise especially as far as draft picks are concerned.

 

As for the RB-heavy strategy, I think it definitely has some merit. I haven't been playing dynasty long at all, but I've made it a priority to cast a wide net as far as RBs are concerned. This isn't exactly the same as going 2 WR (which seems extreme), but I try to get a sure thing at QB and I prioritize getting a top TE so as to allow myself maximum roster space at RB (and to a lesser extent WR) by only rostering 2 QBs and TEs.

 

This allows me to carry a ton of RBs. For example, in the Fat Bastards dynasty league that mfm runs, RBs take up 11 of my 25 roster spots (44% of roster) right not even though they're only 2/10ths (20%) of my starting roster each week.

 

The amount of injuries, turnover amongst the top scorers each year, etc. means you really need to have a ton of them to improve your odds of having 2 good ones come fantasy playoff time.

[Bones40 0]

I posted about this in another thread, wanted to get your thoughts. This year I've been carrying two or three wide receivers every week, and once the bye week is gone on my top two guys I'll only carry 2...unless I can get a legit one in a trade. I've been using all the space for RB gambles. I do this because it seems like wide receivers are generally easy to come by on the waivers and there is a wide range of people who any week could show up. But also because it seems really hard to predict their matchups, I have two top 15 guys now and I just start them every week without thought of the matchup unless its NYJ, PHI, or CLE. It's so hard to predict how the teams will cover the wide receivers that the matchups are impossible for me to look at. Last week New England was apparently switching coverage in the redzone to take D Bryant out of the situation, can't predict that. However running backs if they have a good matchup such as vs IND. You know they are guaranteed some points with upside. Much easier to predict. Also running backs being hard to come by are much more valuable roster spots IMO. I have 8 RBs on my roster all with value. Looking to package them to a RB weak team for upgrades. Running backs are also guaranteed touches, and a lot more of them. Am I thinking this right? Is there purpose in carrying a third receiver if he isn't a top 20 guy (we only start 2)?

 

My team usually looks just the opposite. The starting lineup in my main league is a bit different than most though (QB, TE, RB, WR, Flex, Flex, Flex, 3 IDP). It affords a lot of flexibility in how you can build your team, makes it easier to cover byes and injuries and I've grown to love it in most ways. Anyway, because of what you said about WR being easy to find, I generally find myself only rostering 2 RBs most of the season and they are usually every week starters. I usually have 1-2 solid, every week WRs as well. I then fill my roster with WR talent from the waiver wire and try to play matchups in the flex spots. When playoffs are around the corner and teams start to get desperate to keep their season alive, I package anywhere from 2-4 of those waiver wire receivers for a stud RB. I can usually pull off two of those trades a year and it really sets me up well for the playoffs.

 

I'm not sure it will work out this year though. Doesn't seem like there's as many of those guys out there for me to snipe off the WW list. Also, I think after 5 years the other owners aren't quite as willing to set me up for the playoffs anymore.

 

There's one guy in my league, though, that stockpiles running backs. He's always got a solid team. We don't see eye to eye on player value at all, but I can't argue with the success he's had with the RB heavy strategy. It's actually started rubbing off on me as I look at my roster. Most of my WW pick ups this year have been RBs.

[O'ky 0]

I'm hoping that the general running back scarcity and injury-proneness is going to land me a 3rd legit (hopefully top 15) WR. I've played the wire decently to acquire all those RBs and when a couple of them pan out I'll package for an OK Wr, then find another team who needs a win and is short on RBs and package another wire gem to upgrade that WR, and keep upgrading as much as I can. That is my general idea anyway. Just trying to take advantage of running back scarcity and the fact that they seem to be more valuable to play in a flex spot than a WR (assuming you have a starting RB).

[madd futher mucker 36]

I'm hoping that the general running back scarcity and injury-proneness is going to land me a 3rd legit (hopefully top 15) WR. I've played the wire decently to acquire all those RBs and when a couple of them pan out I'll package for an OK Wr, then find another team who needs a win and is short on RBs and package another wire gem to upgrade that WR, and keep upgrading as much as I can. That is my general idea anyway. Just trying to take advantage of running back scarcity and the fact that they seem to be more valuable to play in a flex spot than a WR (assuming you have a starting RB).

 

After surveying the carnage of today's games, your strategy is hard to refute. It does appear however that the injury bug does not spare my WR corps either.

 

But to set up the discussion, I made some trades and late pick-ups that changed my "probable" line-ups a little for a couple of my teams.

 

In my Team 1 Redraft PPR, I couldn't stand leaving about 27 fantasy points on my bench every week, owning both Brees and Newton. So I traded Brees (along with Den Moore, Parker and the SF D) for Sam Bradford, Brandon Lloyd, TB's Mike Williams, and Lynch. Then, with other things drawing my attention away from my final starting line-up the only newcomer I started was Lynch - not knowing that he was scratcheed in early warm-ups by back spasms. So my starting line-up was:

Newton, Bradford, Witten, Gronkowski, Suisham, DEN,

ADP, Best, Lynch, M Bush, Battle

Bryant, S Moss, Julio, Lloyd, M Williams, Breaston

I can be fortunate that other than Lynch's back issue, the only injury sustained by this team was Santana Moss' broken hand, which will probably sideline him for 4 - 6 weeks. Now I'm sure glad I picked up the extra depth. I was going to trade away Battle, but at the rate RBs went down today, I'll have to re-think that one. BTW, I won that contest to go 4 - 3.

 

In team 2, I picked up Mo Morris, Hester and Breaston, dropping D Moore, Ford, and Benn. All three went right into my line-up. They didn't do quite as well as expected, but better than the players I would have played. So i did start Tebow and my line-up was:

Tebow, Schaub, Cutler, V Davis, Hernandez, Cook, Bailey

Forte, Best, Wells, Mo Mo, P Thomas, Powell, K. Williams

Nicks, S Rice, Julio, Breaston, Hester, Brown, Alexander

With the Saints last TD drive, I just lost this contest to go 5 - 2, and I lost Wells with a knee injury for the near future if not longer.

 

The only changes to Team 3 (Dynasty) late last week were to acquire Jared Cook for a 2012 1st round draft choice, and to sneak DAL RB Philip Tanner off of open waivers and onto my Developmental taxi squad, dropping BUFF RB Johnie White. He did not go into my roster, but he would have outperformed both Finley and Olsen. I absorbed another loss, so this team is now also 5 - 2. In the process, I also lost both McGahee (broken hand), and Graham (out for season with torn achilles tendon), in addition to losing Moss. Pretty devastating!

 

There were no changes to my Friends and Family Team 4, but in addition to losing Moss on this team as well, Felix Jones probably lost all fantasy relevance with DeMarco Murray's break-out game. I'm still ahead in this one by 9 FPTS, which is probably not by enough to save me from a loss at the hands of the BALT D tomorrow night.

 

What a freaky day. In addition to the injuries that hit my team, there was McFaddem, Addai, Hightower, Stafford, Harvin just to name a few more. So I'm sure I'm not the only one bemoaning the injuries tonight.

[madd futher mucker 36]

After losing three close games - and two of them were by just 1 and a fraction FPT each - due to injuries, you tend to play the “if onlys”, as in if only I had played MJD against Balt instead of Mo Morris. That is a game that you can play all day long, but unfortunately every week most of us has somebody on our bench who would have been the difference-maker. We all make the best WDIS decisions we can, and then a loss is a loss - close or not. Last week my teams simply had too many injuries to overcome.

 

Every week is a new week and this week there were slim pickins on the waiver wire in all my leagues. My teams and roster moves so far were:

I dropped Moss and picked up the CIN D in Team 1 PPR Redraft team this week. The team is 4 - 3 and starts 1QB, 2 RBs, 2 WRs, 2 Flexes RB/WR/TE, D/ST, K. This weeks (probable starters bolded):

Newton, Bradford, Witten, Gronkowski, Suisham, DEN, CIN

ADP, Best, Lynch, M Bush, Battle

Bryant, Julio, Lloyd, M Williams, Breaston

 

Team 2, my Deep Keeper, is now 5 - 2 after a loss by 1 FPT. It is a 10 team Standard Scoring league that starts 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WRs, 1 TE, 1 RB/WR/TE Flex, 1 K; No changes were made to that team this week. Probable starters ( bold):

Tebow, Schaub, Cutler, V Davis, Hernandez, Cook, Bailey

Forte, Best, Wells, Mo Mo, P Thomas, Powell, K. Williams

Nicks, S Rice, Julio, Breaston, Hester, A Brown, Alexander

 

Team 3, the Fat Bastards PPR Dynasty league team, also now 5 - 2. This is the league that scores 1.5 FPTs for TEs and gives return points to position players. We start 1 QB, 2 RBs, 3 WRs, 1 TE, 1 RB/WR/TE Flex, 1 D/ST, 1 K. I picked up Stephens-Howling and Niles Paul, dropping E Graham and Moss. Now here’s my team:

Eli, Freeman, Finley, Olsen, Cook, Suisham, NYG

Bradshaw, De Williams, F Jax, McGahee, Stephens-Howling

Bryant, D Moore, D Baldwin, Branch, Cribbs, Cobb, Salas, Paul

 

Lastly, my Team 4 Friends and Family Smack Talk Keeper PPR is now only 1- 6, even after posting the second highest score in the league only to lose by 1 FPT to the week’s highest scoring team. Although my play-off chances are very slim, I’m determined to go as far with this team as I can. I picked up the CIN D, dropping S Moss in this league too. We start 1 QB, 2 RBs, 2 WRs, 1 TE, a RB/WR Flex, K and a D/ST. So I‘ll probably start (bold):

Big Ben, Bradford, Tebow, Finley, Cook, Kasay, Dallas, CIN

Foster, MJD, F Jones, Mo Morris, Stewart

Bowe, Little, Julio

 

 

 

I promised the discussion topic for this week would be shaping our rosters, and who to target for the play-off weeks 14 - 16.

 

Let’s start with Defenses. If you own Baltimore, Pitts, NYJ, or DET, then good for you. I can’t imagine a league where they might be available. The primary defensive teams that I would target that might be easier to get would be CIN, CLE, HOU, NO, and SF. My sleeper defense would be Seattle. This is based on a combination of productive defenses and a good schedule against some poorer offenses for the play-off weeks.

 

Offensively, I’d be looking at almost anyone fantasy relevant in the passing game for CAR, DAL, DET, GB, and of course New England and New Orleans. Not only do these teams have great passing offenses, but they play against relatively weaker passing defenses for most of their play-offs. Other players invilved in the passing game that I would consider acquiring would be Roddy White, Julio Jones, Stevie Johnson, and in PPR, CJ Spiller. My play-off sleepers would be Jay Cutler and Johnny Knox, Tim Tebow and Demaryous Thomas.

 

As far as running backs are concerned, Ray Rice, Ced Benson, Foster, Mendenhall, and perhaps Daniel Thomas would be my top acquisition candidates. A deep sleeper play-off RB who you could get real cheap right now would be Willis McGahee.

 

I hope these lists will generate some good discussion here, and good luck to each of you this week-end.

[O'ky 0]

Cedric Benson has good matchups for the playoffs, but he seems to have no upside. In his good matchups this year he has done better than normal, but not significantly. I have him, but despite the good playoff matchups I don't know if I'm going to start him now that I have Demarco Murray (assuming he pans out). I like the Seattle pick, their defense has down awesome the past 2 weeks on the road, good sleeper this week at home. Definitely could come on strong last half of the season.

 

 

Whats your thoughts on how to choose between a RB and WR in a RB/WR flex spot? I now have to choose between Dez Bryant, and D. Murray, or C. Benson each week. I always try to start running backs, but now I have a legit third receiver.

[jgcrawfish 232]

I promised the discussion topic for this week would be shaping our rosters, and who to target for the play-off weeks 14 - 16.

 

Let’s start with Defenses. If you own Baltimore, Pitts, NYJ, or DET, then good for you. I can’t imagine a league where they might be available. The primary defensive teams that I would target that might be easier to get would be CIN, CLE, HOU, NO, and SF. My sleeper defense would be Seattle. This is based on a combination of productive defenses and a good schedule against some poorer offenses for the play-off weeks.

 

Offensively, I’d be looking at almost anyone fantasy relevant in the passing game for CAR, DAL, DET, GB, and of course New England and New Orleans. Not only do these teams have great passing offenses, but they play against relatively weaker passing defenses for most of their play-offs. Other players invilved in the passing game that I would consider acquiring would be Roddy White, Julio Jones, Stevie Johnson, and in PPR, CJ Spiller. My play-off sleepers would be Jay Cutler and Johnny Knox, Tim Tebow and Demaryous Thomas.

 

As far as running backs are concerned, Ray Rice, Ced Benson, Foster, Mendenhall, and perhaps Daniel Thomas would be my top acquisition candidates. A deep sleeper play-off RB who you could get real cheap right now would be Willis McGahee.

 

I hope these lists will generate some good discussion here, and good luck to each of you this week-end.

 

Pretty much any of the AFC North offensive or DST's (Cleveland being the notable exception) is a solid bet going forward simply because of the matchups, as you pointed out. I'm tag-teaming the Steelers and Bengals most likely for the rest of the season for DST's. I think the Steelers and Ravens offensive players in particular are sweet plays, since they both have potentially potent offenses and face soft schedules. I'm actually not as high on the GB offensive players because the Pack have 6 of 8 games in cold outdoor stadiums for the closing stretch. I can forsee the re-emergence of Finley and the game of Starks/Grant picking up some and the Packers WR's and QB levelling off a bit. I think that Brees and the rest of the Saints are going to go bonkers with their schedule and pretty much every game indoors the rest of the way. In fact, I'm glad that I didn't move Jimmy Graham earlier when I tried to.

[madd futher mucker 36]

A busy week at work and losing 3 more close matches this week frankly left me little energy or enthusiasm for the blog this week. But one trade in the Redraft league (my only winner last week) lifted my spirits, as did a good bit of activity on the waiver wire. I'm getting down to almost empty in two of the three leagues that use waiver bids.

 

After 8 weeks, I've compiled my worst record ever at an even 16 and 16. Fortunately that breaks down to a 5 - 3 record in three leagues and a 1 and 7 in my Friends and Family league. With so many close losses, that team just has to be the best 1 - 7 team on the planet for a 12 team league. Talk about a statistical anomaly, judging by my points scored, I should be squarely in the play-off hunt; but teams have put up almost 100 FPTs more against me than any other team in the league.

 

Team 1, my PPR Redraft team made a nice trade this week. I’ve been very afraid about Best’s concussion and really don’t expect him back immediately after his bye. The trade I pulled off was Best and M Williams (TB) to get one of my play-off RB targets, Rashard Mendenhall and Torrey Smith - then I dropped Smith to pick up T Jackson who I‘ll start this week instead of Cam or Bradford. I also was able to roster Hunter from the WW, dropping the DEN D. This team starts 1QB, 2 RBs, 2 WRs, 2 Flexes RB/WR/TE, D/ST, K. This weeks (probable starters bolded):

Newton, Bradford, T Jackson, Witten, Gronkowski, Suisham, CIN

ADP, Mendenhall, Lynch, M Bush, Battle, Hunter

Bryant, Julio, Lloyd, Breaston

 

After a loss, Team 2, my Deep Keeper, is in a 10 team Standard Scoring league that starts 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WRs, 1 TE, 1 RB/WR/TE Flex, 1 K; I was very busy on open waivers shuffling the bottom of my roster and picking up Ogbannaya, Tanner, Knox, Benn and Ponder off waivers, dropping K Williams, Mo Mo, Hester, Alexander and Breaston. Probable starters ( bold):

Schaub, Cutler, Ponder, Tebow, V Davis, Hernandez, Cook, Bailey

Forte, Best, Wells, P Thomas, Tanner, Ogbannaya

Nicks, S Rice, Julio, Knox, Brown, Benn

 

Team 3, the Fat Bastards PPR Dynasty league team, is my other 5 - 3 team. This is the league that scores 1.5 FPTs for TEs and gives return points to position players. We start 1 QB, 2 RBs, 3 WRs, 1 TE, 1 RB/WR/TE Flex, 1 D/ST, 1 K. I picked up Gerhart and dropped Stevens-Howling, re-acquired Walter (dropping Niles Paul), and swapped out the NYG for the KC D this week. I also picked RB Curtis Brinkley off the wire and added him to my developmental taxi squad, dropping Cilin Kaepernick. My only cost was $3.33 for the KC D (I was delighted to find out that I outbid another owner by only $ 0.13 against a $200 annual waiver budget. With about $62 left to spend, this is my only team with any significant waiver money. BTW, I'm very scared of Bradshaw's foot injury. I'll probably try to package him and D Will for whatever I can get next week. But for now for week 9, here’s my team:

Eli, Freeman, Finley, Olsen, Cook, Suisham, KC

Bradshaw, De Williams, F Jax, McGahee, Gerhart

Bryant, D Moore, D Baldwin, Branch, Cribbs, Cobb, Salas, Walter

 

Lastly, my Team 4 Friends and Family Smack Talk Keeper PPR is now officially 1 - 7. I picked both Michael Bush and Obonnaya off the WW, using all but my last $1 to get them, dropping Mo Mo and the DAL D. Both will go straight into my starting line-up this week. We start 1 QB, 2 RBs, 2 WRs, 1 TE, a RB/WR Flex, K and a D/ST. So I‘ll probably start (bold):

Big Ben, Bradford, Tebow, Finley, Cook, Kasay, Cincy

Foster, MJD, M Bush, Ogbonnaya, Stewart. F Jones

Bowe, Julio, Little

 

Lots of roster moves since last week's report!

 

The good news is that all three of my 5 - 3 leagues are in the hunt, and with all the player injuries, I’m in survival mode, fighting to make the play-offs just like almost everyone else. I refuse to make excuses or let myself get down at this point. For most of us, this is the critical time that separates winners from losers. The secret is to continue to make good decisions and then let the chips fall where they may. Let’s hope that I turn it around this week and get back on the winning track.

 

I know that most readers of this blog are in the same boat. There are a lot of fantasy tips I could give you, but maybe the best one is from Mike Caro’s book Fundamental Secrets of Winning Poker. Caro says that “the main reason people fail to accomplish as much as they could - in poker and in life (edit: you can add fantasy football here as well) - is that they don’t play their best game ALWAYS.” From that premise, he formulated one of his famous poker “laws” that he calls Caro’s Law of Least Tilt: “Among similarly skilled opponents, the player with the most discipline will be the favorite.”

 

With most trading deadlines fast approaching, next week is a good time for me to give you an update of my final trade and waiver targets for the play-offs. It is time to turn up the heat - now is not the time for any of us to go on tilt.

 

Good luck this week!

[O'ky 0]

Team 3, shouldn't Eli start this week?

 

Mendenhall's playoff schedule looks tough to me! vs Cle (16th against the run) then @SF (1st) before a cake game vs STL championship week. Are you targeting him because you expect him to be a championship winner if you get there?

[madd futher mucker 36]

Team 3, shouldn't Eli start this week?

 

Mendenhall's playoff schedule looks tough to me! vs Cle (16th against the run) then @SF (1st) before a cake game vs STL championship week. Are you targeting him because you expect him to be a championship winner if you get there?

 

My gut tells me that Eli could have trouble with both Nicks and Bradshaw likely out.

 

Regarding Mendenhall, it was a combination of trying to unload Best while he has some value left - I'm really concerned about him for the rest of the year - and you are exactly right, assuming I make it that far I want to win the whole enchillada.

 

Edit: I just made 3 more open roster moves this morning, adding Taiwan Jones to my Teams 1, 2, and 4 and dropping Breaston, Benn and Cook respectively. this could be the last week you can get him cheaply, and he's the type of homerun or nothing RB pick-up I love this time of year. I'll have to slow my roll from here on out, due to transaction limits, waiver dollar limitations or both.

[O'ky 0]

I see you stream. I know you are looking to acquire players for the playoffs, but are you looking to pickup a defense to stash for the playoffs now? Or would you say it's a little early? Who are you looking at if you are? Is it worth a roster spot to stash a defense this early?

[Stewburtx8 67]

Team 3, shouldn't Eli start this week?

 

 

 

This was the first thing that jumped out at me. Eli has been on fire and faces maybe his best matchup of the year. The Giants will need to throw a lot to keep up with the Pats in my opinion. Manningham and Cruz are very capable receivers and Eli has also been throwing to Ballard a lot. Just my opinion, but I like Eli a lot this week.

[madd futher mucker 36]

This was the first thing that jumped out at me. Eli has been on fire and faces maybe his best matchup of the year. The Giants will need to throw a lot to keep up with the Pats in my opinion. Manningham and Cruz are very capable receivers and Eli has also been throwing to Ballard a lot. Just my opinion, but I like Eli a lot this week.

 

Thanks Stew, I value your judgment more than just about anyone on this bored. I will rethink this tonight. Edit: upon due "rosterbation" I decided that Eli might be a slightly better play than Free, so I'm throwing my lot in with Stew and O'ky.

[madd futher mucker 36]

Last weeks festivities gave me only two more close losses along with two lopsided wins. I’m getting really sick of close losses! One of the losses was directly attributable to starting the KC defense which got me a minus 3 FPTs against lowly Miami. Ouch!

 

The fantasy gods have just got to be kinder to me this week.

 

The only move I made in Team 1, my PPR Redraft team this week was to again drop T Jackson and pick up Breaston. This team was one of my winners and is now 6 - 3. It starts 1QB, 2 RBs, 2 WRs, 2 Flexes RB/WR/TE, D/ST, K. This weeks (probable starters bolded):

Newton, Bradford, Witten, Gronkowski, Suisham, CIN

ADP, Mendenhall, Lynch, M Bush, Battle, Hunter, Tai Jones

Bryant, Julio, Lloyd, Breaston

 

After another loss, Team 2, my Deep Keeper dropped to 5 - 4. It’s a 10 team Standard Scoring league that starts 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WRs, 1 TE, 1 RB/WR/TE Flex, 1 K; This week, I picked up Earl Bennett, Cribbs and Benn, dropping my experiments with Ogbonnaya, Tanner and Cook. I think I’m going to swing for the fences and start “Virgin Air” at QB. Probable starters (in bold):

Schaub, Cutler, Ponder, Tebow, V Davis, Hernandez, Bailey

Forte, Best, Wells, P Thomas, Tai Jones

Nicks, S Rice, Julio, Knox, Brown, Bennett, Cribbs, Benn

 

Team 3, the Fat Bastards PPR Dynasty league team, is my other 5 - 4 team. This is the league that scores 1.5 FPTs for TEs and gives return points to position players. We start 1 QB, 2 RBs, 3 WRs, 1 TE, 1 RB/WR/TE Flex, 1 D/ST, 1 K. I spent $52.25 of my $200 waiver budget on Earl Bennett and Mark Clayton. With 20 player rosters plus IR and 4 man taxi squad, the pickins’ are slim, and this late in the season I was glad to spend the money - especially since I lost Greg Salas to IR (in addition to Danny Amendola and S Moss earlier. Now I’m left with about $12 left to spend for the balance of the year. Here’s my team:

Eli, Freeman, Finley, Olsen, Cook, Suisham, KC

Bradshaw, De Williams, F Jax, McGahee, Gerhart

Bryant, D Moore, D Baldwin, Clayton, Cribbs, Cobb, Bennett, Walter

 

Finally, a win brought my Team 4 Friends and Family Smack Talk Keeper PPR to a miserable 2 - 7. I also picked up Earl Bennett in this league and dropped Obonnaya. We start 1 QB, 2 RBs, 2 WRs, 1 TE, a RB/WR Flex, K and a D/ST. So I‘ll probably start (bold):

Big Ben, Bradford, Tebow, Finley, Kasay, Cincy

Foster, MJD, M Bush, Stewart. F Jones, Tai Jones

Bowe, Julio, Bennett, Little

 

I’ll post an update to my playoff targets in the open forum later tonight. Remember to set your lineups early this week before Thurs night's game and as always, good luck to all this week.

[O'ky 0]

For the playoffs, how would you compare a cold weather QB who has been good all year like Brady or Rodgers with good matchups during playoffs weeks, but the potential for bad weather. To a player like Phillip Rivers who has been under peforming, and has hard matchups, but has good weather all 3 weeks. Or to Cam Newton who has been good, but also has tough matchups, and warm weather?