Early Rankings - Tight Ends

[Mike FF Today 608]

Dave's Early Season Rankings series comes to a close with the Tight Ends.

[Matt Mueller 146]

Good list. I might have Hernandez as my #3 off the board but I do agree that that some of the other guys might have a higher upside, based on the fact that they are more likely to be a bigger focal point of their team's offense.

 

Really like Pettigrew late as well. And there are a whole list of TE's that a case can be made for stepping into the top 12. Very deep postion.

 

 

 

The biggest question is whether or not picking a TE with relatively guaranteed production, like Graham, in the second round is a sound draft strategy.

 

 

For people who have done mocks have you liked your squad when you took an elite TE early? I've found that I can go either QB early or TE early but if I do both I'm severely handicapping my WR or RBs. Especially RBs.

 

That said, there is something to be said for taking guaranteed studs, say Stafford or Graham, if you can get them instead of a maybe rb.

[Doozer 0]

Good list. I might have Hernandez as my #3 off the board but I do agree that that some of the other guys might have a higher upside, based on the fact that they are more likely to be a bigger focal point of their team's offense.

 

Really like Pettigrew late as well. And there are a whole list of TE's that a case can be made for stepping into the top 12. Very deep postion.

 

 

 

The biggest question is whether or not picking a TE with relatively guaranteed production, like Graham, in the second round is a sound draft strategy.

 

 

For people who have done mocks have you liked your squad when you took an elite TE early? I've found that I can go either QB early or TE early but if I do both I'm severely handicapping my WR or RBs. Especially RBs.

 

That said, there is something to be said for taking guaranteed studs, say Stafford or Graham, if you can get them instead of a maybe rb.

 

Aaron Hernandez -

"Doesn’t have the upside of the players ahead of him but managed 910 yards and 7 touchdowns in just fourteen games last season."

 

I disagree strongly with this. Hernandez is going to enter his third NFL season as a twenty two year old, twenty two years old! The dude is constantly improving and an athletic freak. Brandon Lloyd's vertical routes will only make him that much more dangerous both out of the backfield and in his short-intermediate routes. I think he has tremendous upside, as long as he doesn't get a case of the dropsies I could easily see him outperforming Gronk this year.

 

Further, of those above him, Finley has never put up 910/7 in his whole career and has imo more question marks than Hernandez, Vernon Davis still has Alex Smith throwing him the ball, is somewhat of a mental flake, and his best and second best years are very close to Hernandez' last year only playing fourteen games, Antonio Gates hasn't had a healthy season since 2009 and is going to be 32 before the season starts.

 

Of course, I'm drinking the Kool-Aid, and it's delicious!

[BufordT 371]

Aaron Hernandez -

"Doesn’t have the upside of the players ahead of him but managed 910 yards and 7 touchdowns in just fourteen games last season."

 

I disagree strongly with this. Hernandez is going to enter his third NFL season as a twenty two year old, twenty two years old! The dude is constantly improving and an athletic freak. Brandon Lloyd's vertical routes will only make him that much more dangerous both out of the backfield and in his short-intermediate routes. I think he has tremendous upside, as long as he doesn't get a case of the dropsies I could easily see him outperforming Gronk this year.

 

Further, of those above him, Finley has never put up 910/7 in his whole career and has imo more question marks than Hernandez, Vernon Davis still has Alex Smith throwing him the ball, is somewhat of a mental flake, and his best and second best years are very close to Hernandez' last year only playing fourteen games, Antonio Gates hasn't had a healthy season since 2009 and is going to be 32 before the season starts.

 

Of course, I'm drinking the Kool-Aid, and it's delicious!

 

Agree with most of what you said...I think it's a toss up between Gronk and Hernandez on who has the better fantasy year. Gronk will come down a little and there is still room for improvement when it comes to Hernandez. The effect of Brandon Lloyd on this offense is going to be interesting. He could be the most polished WR Brady has had. Welker?? More polished?? Maybe...nimho though.

 

Anyone else think Witten's done as a top 10 TE??

[Matt Mueller 146]

Agree with most of what you said...I think it's a toss up between Gronk and Hernandez on who has the better fantasy year. Gronk will come down a little and there is still room for improvement when it comes to Hernandez. The effect of Brandon Lloyd on this offense is going to be interesting. He could be the most polished WR Brady has had. Welker?? More polished?? Maybe...nimho though.

 

Anyone else think Witten's done as a top 10 TE??

 

Possibly if Murray emerges as a consistent factor and Dallas can establish the run but some of Robinson's targets should drift his way. That said, I'm just as comfortable with a Pettigrew/Gresham at this point. I almost think he's just another TE.

[Matt Mueller 146]

Aaron Hernandez -

"Doesn’t have the upside of the players ahead of him but managed 910 yards and 7 touchdowns in just fourteen games last season."

 

I disagree strongly with this. Hernandez is going to enter his third NFL season as a twenty two year old, twenty two years old! The dude is constantly improving and an athletic freak. Brandon Lloyd's vertical routes will only make him that much more dangerous both out of the backfield and in his short-intermediate routes. I think he has tremendous upside, as long as he doesn't get a case of the dropsies I could easily see him outperforming Gronk this year.

 

Further, of those above him, Finley has never put up 910/7 in his whole career and has imo more question marks than Hernandez, Vernon Davis still has Alex Smith throwing him the ball, is somewhat of a mental flake, and his best and second best years are very close to Hernandez' last year only playing fourteen games, Antonio Gates hasn't had a healthy season since 2009 and is going to be 32 before the season starts.

 

Of course, I'm drinking the Kool-Aid, and it's delicious!

 

I'm in total agreement on Hernandez. Let's factor in his playoff contributions too:

 

Denver: Hernandez was the leading rusher on the team with 5 carries 61 yards and was targeted 6 times for 4-55-1.

 

Baltimore: Hernandez was the target leader with 11 going 7-66 and adding 3 rushing attempts for 9 yards.

 

Superbowl: 14 targets, going 8-67-1.

 

Targets/rushes by game in the playoffs go:

 

11, 14, 14

 

 

I really like him next year. Plus he plays with Tom Brady, on a team with another stellar TE that everyone most likely will be focusing on stopping. Someone like Vernon Davis has the opposite going for him. Mediocre qb play and clearly a focal point.

 

Remember BJGE is gone and if Hernandez morphs into a Percy Harvin type role where they try to get him the ball in space more, the sky's the limit.

 

 

P>S One last point. I've heard the argument made that Llyod might cut into Hernandez's target's but I'm not totally buying it. He's too good after the catch. If anything he'll take away from Branch who put up 51-702-5. And that's a lot of production right there itself that didn't limit Welker, Gronk or Hernandez from having stellar years last year.

[BufordT 371]

I was looking at TE point totals for the last four years....the TE position really took off last year. Wonder if this is a trend. This is what it looks like to me. The fantasy player is going to want Gronk, Graham or Hernandez on their team next year...or they'll be starting out minus 3-4 points every week in a HTH league. That's pretty significant seeing that most leagues start only one TE. If I were to tier the TE's right now, it would look like this

 

Tier 1: Gronk, Graham

Tier 1.5: Hernandez

Tier 3.5: Davis

Skip a couple of tiers and everyone else

 

I'd gladly (at this point) take Gronk or Graham at pick 22-24 (Hernandez late 3rd round). Otherwise, I'd wait till my roster is filled b4 selecting a TE.

 

Top 4 TE's Next 4

2011 801 pts 480 pts

2010 521 pts 391 pts

2009 623 pts 448 pts

2008 491 pts 347 pts

[crowes 1]

Aaron Hernandez -

"Doesn’t have the upside of the players ahead of him but managed 910 yards and 7 touchdowns in just fourteen games last season."

 

I disagree strongly with this. Hernandez is going to enter his third NFL season as a twenty two year old, twenty two years old! The dude is constantly improving and an athletic freak. Brandon Lloyd's vertical routes will only make him that much more dangerous both out of the backfield and in his short-intermediate routes. I think he has tremendous upside, as long as he doesn't get a case of the dropsies I could easily see him outperforming Gronk this year.

 

Further, of those above him, Finley has never put up 910/7 in his whole career and has imo more question marks than Hernandez, Vernon Davis still has Alex Smith throwing him the ball, is somewhat of a mental flake, and his best and second best years are very close to Hernandez' last year only playing fourteen games, Antonio Gates hasn't had a healthy season since 2009 and is going to be 32 before the season starts.

 

Of course, I'm drinking the Kool-Aid, and it's delicious!

 

 

On Davis, what do the adds of Moss/Manningham do there? And where is A.Smith developmentally.... still gaining and the boost at WR helps everyone, or Smith is peaked and not able to step up beyond his past performance.

[Skurzilla 0]

Dave's Early Season Rankings series comes to a close with the Tight Ends.

 

 

I would rank Jermichael Finley lower, but I think he is top 10 material.

[Skurzilla 0]

Agree with most of what you said...I think it's a toss up between Gronk and Hernandez on who has the better fantasy year. Gronk will come down a little and there is still room for improvement when it comes to Hernandez. The effect of Brandon Lloyd on this offense is going to be interesting. He could be the most polished WR Brady has had. Welker?? More polished?? Maybe...nimho though.

 

Anyone else think Witten's done as a top 10 TE??

 

 

I think Gronkowski has more Agility, which allows him to catch the clutch passes. However, they are both arguably top tier tight-ends.

[Portis26 0]

No Tamme? I like his upside with Manning at QB.

[Matt Mueller 146]

I think Gronkowski has more Agility, which allows him to catch the clutch passes. However, they are both arguably top tier tight-ends.

 

Not trying to nit pick but although Gronk has a bigger ypc avg I'd say Hernandez has the better agility and after the catch ability.

 

Gronk is a bigger red zone target and simply a beast to bring down.

[DrG 94]

I think you'll see the law of averages catch up - average teams will look to copy the good ones and you will see more emphasis on the tight end across the league next year.

[Doozer 0]

On Davis, what do the adds of Moss/Manningham do there? And where is A.Smith developmentally.... still gaining and the boost at WR helps everyone, or Smith is peaked and not able to step up beyond his past performance.

Alex Smith, last year, was identical statistically as he was in his past he just cut down on his boneheaded ints.

2006- 16/16 games started 257/442 58.1% 2890 16 TD/16 INT

2011- 16/16 273/447 61.2% 3144 17 TD/5 INT

 

Outside of 2010 where Davis had 13 TDs, he hasn't had a signature great year... And I'd bet against him ever getting 13 TDS again when his starting QB has never had over 18 in a single season. Tough to gobble up over 60% of your QB's TDs on a regular basis. As for Moss/Manningham... I don't think Smith has ever had a very good arm, I think Moss still has it if motivated, and I think Harbaugh will have him motivated, but after a few games and four or five mistimed or underthrown deep balls, I think Moss will go back to his selfish ways. Hell, Brady left a lot of yards and TDs out there with Moss because of just an average deep ball, and Brady is light years beyond Smith. As for Manningham, I don't see him doing much more than 40-50/600-800/2-5, some say Smith has always had terrible WRs who couldn't separate, I say Smith struggles to throw to his WRs period.