GobbleDog 815 Posted October 13, 2020 Through the first four weeks, the NFL average game score was 51.3 points per game - up 16% from the previous season and up nearly 20% since 2000. Teams have scored 35 points or more 16 times in the first four weeks, up 78% from the previous season. Why? Better QB play? Better coaching schemes? Lack of crowd noise? According to several recent articles, the main reason - refs aren't calling offensive holding penalties unless it's horribly egregious. Through the first four weeks, offensive holding was down 56% from the previous year. So are offensive lineman just getting better? According to ESPN officiating analyst John Perry "Officials are good soldiers, they hear the message and they perform based on what they've been instructed to call. At this level, they are that good. Whatever the marching orders are, that's how they will officiate." Quote But why the seemingly random choice to focus on offensive holding? Historically, it is the most frequently called foul in football. The NFL has been trying to calibrate it for years, beginning in Week 13 of the 2018 season and continuing into the start of the 2019 season. Uncalled holding fouls, moreover, don't register on the public outrage meter the way uncalled pass interference or roughing the passer penalties do, largely because they go unseen by fans who are watching the ball. https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/30003263/how-nfl-manipulating-scoring-2020-fewer-holding-calls-faster-games-way-more-offense https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/11/sports/football/nfl-scores-high-points.html https://www.latimes.com/sports/story/2020-10-05/nfl-penalties-down-scoring-offense-up-2020 Interesting... Scoring = excitement = ratings = money.... I get it. My only concern is some refs will call it (sometimes) and other won't (sometimes). Who knows what the damn rule is at that point. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
TBayXXXVII 2,104 Posted October 13, 2020 3 minutes ago, GobbleDog said: Through the first four weeks, the NFL average game score was 51.3 points per game - up 16% from the previous season and up nearly 20% since 2000. Teams have scored 35 points or more 16 times in the first four weeks, up 78% from the previous season. Why? Better QB play? Better coaching schemes? Lack of crowd noise? According to several recent articles, the main reason - refs aren't calling offensive holding penalties unless it's horribly egregious. Through the first four weeks, offensive holding was down 56% from the previous year. So are offensive lineman just getting better? According to ESPN officiating analyst John Perry "Officials are good soldiers, they hear the message and they perform based on what they've been instructed to call. At this level, they are that good. Whatever the marching orders are, that's how they will officiate." https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/30003263/how-nfl-manipulating-scoring-2020-fewer-holding-calls-faster-games-way-more-offense https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/11/sports/football/nfl-scores-high-points.html https://www.latimes.com/sports/story/2020-10-05/nfl-penalties-down-scoring-offense-up-2020 Interesting... Scoring = excitement = ratings = money.... I get it. My only concern is some refs will call it (sometimes) and other won't (sometimes). Who knows what the damn rule is at that point. If I were a gambling man, I'd say that the NFL told the refs to tone down the offensive penalties to help gamblers/fantasy football players. Generates more interest if you have higher scores. I think they're doing that to keep the tv ratings from plummeting. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
polecatt 399 Posted October 13, 2020 I think when you have things like a shortened off season, no preseason games, etc., it hurts the defenses more than the offenses. Maybe it's something to do with how the refs are calling it, wouldn't surprise me, but I think it's just the offenses are a few weeks ahead of the defenses. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
TBayXXXVII 2,104 Posted October 13, 2020 21 minutes ago, polecatt said: I think when you have things like a shortened off season, no preseason games, etc., it hurts the defenses more than the offenses. Maybe it's something to do with how the refs are calling it, wouldn't surprise me, but I think it's just the offenses are a few weeks ahead of the defenses. That could be what is happening, but the general thought in the offseason was the opposite. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
GobbleDog 815 Posted October 13, 2020 Last year the Jacksonville Jags had the MOST offensive holding calls at 30.... through five games this year they have a total of 4. Talk about a turnaround! The New York Giants who were ranked DEAD LAST in offensive line rankings this season so far have ... 1 holding penalty. The Redskins O-line was ranked 30th... they currently have 0 holding penalties. Clearly the NFL brass handed down a mandate to refs - ignore holding unless they flat out tackle the dude. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
polecatt 399 Posted October 13, 2020 3 minutes ago, TBayXXXVII said: That could be what is happening, but the general thought in the offseason was the opposite. I know, but they always talk about how things negatively effect the offense. Like the weather. John Madden always said he found that such situations have a more negative effect on defense, due to them being reactionary. Any little wrinkle just puts them another fraction of a step behind. The top offenses have been playing together for years and are a well oiled machine even without much practice. I don't know that you can say that about many of the defenses. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
TBayXXXVII 2,104 Posted October 13, 2020 Just now, polecatt said: I know, but they always talk about how things negatively effect the offense. Like the weather. John Madden always said he found that such situations have a more negative effect on defense, due to them being reactionary. Any little wrinkle just puts them another fraction of a step behind. The top offenses have been playing together for years and are a well oiled machine even without much practice. I don't know that you can say that about many of the defenses. Agreed. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
AxeElf 787 Posted October 13, 2020 Break it down, Chicken Littles. What was the average game score prior to 2000, the one that went up "nearly" 20% to 51.3 points per game? It must have been around 43 points per game to fit that description, so 8.3 points per game is the overall net increase. That's a little more than 1 TD per game, between both teams--or 0.6 TDs per game per team--over the past 20 years. It's not really THAT big of a deal. That said, yes, the refs were instructed to only call "egregious" holding penalties this year. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Jedi Sensei 17 Posted October 17, 2020 Two thoughts: the whole "holding penalties" argument hinges on the idea that holding penalties kill drives and thus reduce scoring. The correlate, then, would be that changes of possession would be down, lengths of drives would be up, and drives ending in scores would likewise increase. I'm don't have the answer but I'm curious to know if the above holds true (no pun intended). Second thought: there haven't been any fans at the games. (Hardly any, really). How has that impacted performance, on both the offense and defensive side? One might think false starts are down and offsides penalties (think hard-counts) would be up, also lengthening drives. Two more thoughts occurred to me: if drives are extended, teams may be reaching FG range more frequently and might take that shot; are FG attempts up over previous years? And 'the numbers' now say going for 2pts after a TD are more favorable, so are 2pt conversion attempts/successes grater also? Again, I don't have the answers, but while holding penalties may be down, it strikes me that focusing on that aspect misses a few other nuances that could explain the higher average score. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
