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wolves111

Has the WR Hierarchy Changed?

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7 minutes ago, AxeElf said:

An 11 game stretch... not counting two games... See ya Lulabelle...

Yeah, the two against Tampa.  Meaning, Tampa is the reason you think they're bad.  In other words, you do know what you're talking about.

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On 6/22/2021 at 5:29 PM, AxeElf said:

Half a season can be pretty relevant if the last 8 games are significantly better than the first--and especially if there was some condition that precipitated it (like a new QB) which is still in effect.  But yeah, virtually every WR is only going to have good games about half the time, so if you're just picking out his 8 best games from across the season, that's cherry-picking.

I think it depends on the scenario.

if its a player who wasnt starting or wasnt getting many reps, and suddenly became the starter, you would take the relevant stats from the time since they became the starter. (as this time is more relevant)

or if it is a young player who maybe was starting to break out later in the year, you likely dont take into account pre breakout stats.

but

because of the small sample size, I'd take those actual and pro rate them but I"d also downgrade a bit due to the small sample size. (you can get burned on that too)

but thats a judgement call.

 

all I'd say is in cases like this its ok to project based on the more relevant stats.  but tell us what you did to come to your conclusion so we can decide if we like your methodology.

 

thats fair.

if someone else thinks they can do better, they should post their own analysis.  thats all I'm saying.

if you say 'i can do better' but then dont follow it up with anything, you arent really contributing. you are just bashing.

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