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wolves111

Has the WR Hierarchy Changed?

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Agreed, Cooper was on fire, and he’ll regain that momentum with his Qb back. 

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3 hours ago, TBayXXXVII said:

Brown and Metcalf played multiple seasons with the same team, same QB, same system... AB had 8 games, no off-season, new team, new QB, new system.  AB was, not too long ago, the undisputed best WR in the NFL.  Neither Brown or Metcalf were ever even near that discussion.

Last 8 games of 2020 (PPR)...

  • Antonio Brown: 45 / 483 / 4 - 14.7 fpg  (11.9 .5PPR)
  • AJ Brown: 43 / 719 / 6 - 18.9 fpg  (16.2 .5PPR)
  • DK Metcalf: 40 / 515 / 2 - 12.9 fpg  (10.4 .5PPR)

Brown was THE guy on a team with no one else.  That's not what 2021 will be like.  I expect his production to decrease.  Maybe you need to take my reading glasses because I guess you didn't know that after the mid-season point, Antonio Brown was better than DK Metcalf.

Cherry picking stats to fit your pre-determined narrative. Whatever man. You already admitted that you wouldn't draft AB over either of them. It shouldn't matter what round you think you can get them, if you really believed it you stand behind the conviction. I think AJ Brown will have more fantasy points than all 3 of the overrated TB receivers, thus I will draft him before them...

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To be fair, the point about draft order is valid.

Just because I think C.J. Uzomah is going to produce more than Kyle Pitts doesn't mean I'm drafting him in the 6th round over Pitts; it means I'm going to pass on Pitts and get Uzomah later.

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3 minutes ago, AxeElf said:

To be fair, the point about draft order is valid.

Just because I think C.J. Uzomah is going to produce more than Kyle Pitts doesn't mean I'm drafting him in the 6th round over Pitts; it means I'm going to pass on Pitts and get Uzomah later.

In auction sure, but in a snake draft you risk losing the player you are targeting if you think you can get him later. If you think Uzomah will score more points than Pitts you should draft him over Pitts.

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1 minute ago, jrokh said:

In auction sure, but in a snake draft you risk losing the player you are targeting if you think you can get him later. If you think Uzomah will score more points than Pitts you should draft him over Pitts.

Um, no, that's not how it works.

I don't usually take you for a moron, but if you're being serious, we may have to have a little talk...

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57 minutes ago, AxeElf said:

Um, no, that's not how it works.

I don't usually take you for a moron, but if you're being serious, we may have to have a little talk...

That's exactly how it works. You should always draft the player you think will score more points over the player you think will score less points. HTH...

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1 hour ago, jrokh said:

That's exactly how it works. You should always draft the player you think will score more points over the player you think will score less points. HTH...

No.  You should draft the player you think will score the most points AT THAT ADP.

Otherwise you're taking Jason Sanders over Darren Waller.

I seriously did not know there were people out there who did not understand this simple draft strategy.  I'm still mostly thinking you're pulling my leg, but I can't for the life of me figure out why you would do that--so...?

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47 minutes ago, AxeElf said:

No.  You should draft the player you think will score the most points AT THAT ADP.

Otherwise you're taking Jason Sanders over Darren Waller.

I seriously did not know there were people out there who did not understand this simple draft strategy.  I'm still mostly thinking you're pulling my leg, but I can't for the life of me figure out why you would do that--so...?

The discussion was about players who play the same position like WR, or in your ridiculous example TE. Do try and keep up. It is tiresome explaining it to the ill informed…

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3 hours ago, jrokh said:

You should always draft the player you think will score more points over the player you think will score less points. HTH...

No not at all, it’s entirely based on value and draft stock unless we are talking about guys in relatively similar tiers. For example, let’s say you knew in your heart of hearts that Stafford was going to outscore Mahomes this season, let’s even say a magic genie told you. You would still wait and grab Staff later because you know his adp is nowhere near Mahomes. Taking Stafford in rnd 2 because you know he’s gonna be the mvp punts all the value you could get by stocking up on other positions and still getting Stafford later. 
 

Now, you mentioned missing out on players and that’s valid, but you would only reach a little usually. If axeelf thinks uzomah will outscore a 5th round te, he won’t take uzomah rnd 5, he will reach maybe a couple late rounds to secure uzomah. There’s no value in taking him rnd 5, the value is in the late draft stock. If we are talking 4th round adp vs 5th round then yes grab your guy and don’t rely on hoping he comes back around to you. Take who you think will score the most when they are within a round or two or even three apart.

 

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9 hours ago, TBayXXXVII said:

Remember, 17 games.  He's had over 100 receptions in a season 3 times, so it's not like he can't get in the triple digits.  Last year, he had exactly 100 in 14 games... that prorates to 121 receptions in 17 games.

this is a valid point for all projections.

no longer a 16 game season.   gotta account for that one extra game.   so a 110 catch WR is now almost a  120 catch WR.   food for  your  thoughts.

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9 minutes ago, tanatastic said:

No not at all, it’s entirely based on value and draft stock unless we are talking about guys in relatively similar tiers. For example, let’s say you knew in your heart of hearts that Stafford was going to outscore Mahomes this season, let’s even say a magic genie told you. You would still wait and grab Staff later because you know his adp is nowhere near Mahomes. Taking Stafford in rnd 2 because you know he’s gonna be the mvp punts all the value you could get by stocking up on other positions and still getting Stafford later. 
 

Now, you mentioned missing out on players and that’s valid, but you would only reach a little usually. If axeelf thinks uzomah will outscore a 5th round te, he won’t take uzomah rnd 5, he will reach maybe a couple late rounds to secure uzomah. There’s no value in taking him rnd 5, the value is in the late draft stock. If we are talking 4th round adp vs 5th round then yes grab your guy and don’t rely on hoping he comes back around to you. Take who you think will score the most when they are within a round or two or even three apart.

 

Not really talking about round or perception of value. That is self evident. If Someone thinks Uzomah will score more points than Pitts than the former should be drafted before the latter by that person whether it is in round 1 or 15 is besides the point. That’s why you put together rankings. 

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3 minutes ago, jrokh said:

Not really talking about round or perception of value. That is self evident. If Someone thinks Uzomah will score more points than Pitts than the former should be drafted before the latter by that person whether it is in round 1 or 15 is besides the point. That’s why you put together rankings. 

My post explains why this isn’t the case. Even if I knew for a fact uzomah would break all records and be league mvp I still wouldn’t take him early. I’d take other guys I like at early adps and then still have uzomah on my team later. 

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1 minute ago, tanatastic said:

My post explains why this isn’t the case. Even if I knew for a fact uzomah would break all records and be league mvp I still wouldn’t take him early. I’d take other guys I like at early adps and then still have uzomah on my team later. 

Not talking about other guys just uzomah and Pitts. Who would be higher in your rankings? Because Uzomah would be higher on the Gnomes list based on what he said. That is my point. Obviously if you like a player you can get later almost as much as a guy that’s going much earlier you focus on the better value. It doesn’t really need to be said because it is self evident. The Gnome is suggesting he would take Ozumah OVER Pitts even if both were available in round 15. TB would do the same for AB over DK Metcalf. THAT is what Ivwas addressing. HTH…

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1 hour ago, jrokh said:

The discussion was about players who play the same position like WR, or in your ridiculous example TE. Do try and keep up. It is tiresome explaining it to the ill informed…

The principle remains the same--you don't take a guy you can get in the 15th round in the 5th round, even if you think he will score more points than the 5th round guy.

Acting all condescending is just making you look more stupid.

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3 hours ago, tanatastic said:

My post explains why this isn’t the case. Even if I knew for a fact uzomah would break all records and be league mvp I still wouldn’t take him early. I’d take other guys I like at early adps and then still have uzomah on my team later. 

Or not, I wouldn’t reach for a te early anyway, but Uz might not make it unto your team later.  

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3 hours ago, Ray_T said:

this is a valid point for all projections.

no longer a 16 game season.   gotta account for that one extra game.   so a 110 catch WR is now almost a  120 catch WR.   food for  your  thoughts.

But that goes for everyone else also, so Allen was 11 best at wr last season, if he improves on his numbers based on that one extra game, so might the other ten he finished behind last season, so than he might still be 11th and not a top five wr.  

Goes without saying. 

 

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8 hours ago, jrokh said:

Cherry picking stats to fit your pre-determined narrative. Whatever man. You already admitted that you wouldn't draft AB over either of them. It shouldn't matter what round you think you can get them, if you really believed it you stand behind the conviction. I think AJ Brown will have more fantasy points than all 3 of the overrated TB receivers, thus I will draft him before them...

Mmm we’ve seen you cherry pick stats to make a cheap point a 100 times or so.  

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Always tricky in a snake draft to wait upon a player one really likes, and thinks that player will out perform other players being drafted much earlier than the player one likes, but also risk the changes of not drafting that player if that player gets drafted before one takes that player.  

I’ve drafted players earlier than I wanted to based on how the draft was going and it looked like I probably won’t get that player when my turn snakes around again, but not five rounds early, and never ever a Te or a Qb. 

 

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13 hours ago, tanatastic said:

People are def forgetting the ppr year Cooper was having while Dak was on a record setting passing pace. Him or Lamb could def be top 10. I’m buying the whole cowboys offense this season after the heavy discount brought on by the collapse.

That was mostly because the defense was so terrible that they were playing catch up the whole game and opposing defenses weren't playing as tight.  I don't think Dallas' defense is all that great, but it'll be better than that tragic nightmare it was last year.  Plus, in those games, they played Atlanta, Seattle, Cleveland, and the Giants in 4 of those games and early on, they were 4 of the worst defenses in the league.

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12 hours ago, jrokh said:

Cherry picking stats to fit your pre-determined narrative. Whatever man. You already admitted that you wouldn't draft AB over either of them. It shouldn't matter what round you think you can get them, if you really believed it you stand behind the conviction. I think AJ Brown will have more fantasy points than all 3 of the overrated TB receivers, thus I will draft him before them...

Wow, you're really angered by being wrong on this aren't you?  LOL  Cherry picking?  Overrated?  🤣

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14 hours ago, AxeElf said:

17 games?  Allen has made it through 16 games only 3 times in his 8-year career.  If he gets 14 games in, you can consider it a successful season.

I wish our vaunted receivers hadn't crapped the bed that day, sure--but the silver lining is that it made the Chiefs think they needed a better offensive line, so they went and built an iron wall in front of Mahomes in the offseason.  Now Mahomes' pocket is like Fort Knox, and his 8,000/80 season will be the gold.

Yeah, and those 3 seasons happened to be over the last 4, so he's shown recently that he can stay healthy.  Interestingly enough, one of those 100 reception seasons was one where he only played in 14.  So, he's shown that he doesn't even need 16 games to get 100 receptions.

Yup, still bitter I see.

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6 hours ago, weepaws said:

Mmm we’ve seen you cherry pick stats to make a cheap point a 100 times or so.  

I doubt you even know what the term cherry picking even means let alone knowing when someone utilizes it. Mmmm. Thanks 

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3 hours ago, jrokh said:

I doubt you even know what the term cherry picking even means let alone knowing when someone utilizes it. Mmmm. Thanks 

Welcome, and your the king of cherry picking. And that you don’t know how to draft a fantasy football team. 

Thanks. 

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13 hours ago, weepaws said:

Mmm we’ve seen you cherry pick stats to make a cheap point a 100 times or so.  

Look cherry pick or no cherry pick, all you can do is provide the stats and how you came about your conclusion.

if someone does not like the way you arrived at your conclusions, they can re do it their way and people can draw their own conclusions.

but if you are gonna accuse someone of cherry picking stats, you should be willing to re calc using the appropriate technique.

I think thats fair.

This isnt only directed at weepaws, this is directed at everyone.

If someone is going to go to the trouble to do a statistical analysis,  if you are gonna rip em apart, you should provide something better.

what I dont like is seeing someone do an analysis, someone comes in and says you did it wrong but then does not show us the correct way to do it.  Thats not actually helping.

 

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All "facts" are based in faith.

When it comes to evidence, as with elections and vaccines, "truth" is dependent on which sources you trust.

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1 hour ago, Ray_T said:

Look cherry pick or no cherry pick, all you can do is provide the stats and how you came about your conclusion.

if someone does not like the way you arrived at your conclusions, they can re do it their way and people can draw their own conclusions.

but if you are gonna accuse someone of cherry picking stats, you should be willing to re calc using the appropriate technique.

I think thats fair.

This isnt only directed at weepaws, this is directed at everyone.

If someone is going to go to the trouble to do a statistical analysis,  if you are gonna rip em apart, you should provide something better.

what I dont like is seeing someone do an analysis, someone comes in and says you did it wrong but then does not show us the correct way to do it.  Thats not actually helping.

 

As with all statistical analysis the larger the sample size the more reliable the results. Using a portion of a season for example instead of the entire season of data is a way of 'cherry picking' stats to fit a pre-determined narrative. So a good rule of thumb is if one doesn't have at least a full season's worth of data your results will have a weak reliability score and thus aren't worth all that much. So when one uses say a half season to demonstrate how prolific a certain WR is, while ignoring the other half where the player did next to nothing, the statistical data is already compromised and doesn't really need to be refuted as you have suggested...

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3 minutes ago, jrokh said:

As with all statistical analysis the larger the sample size the more reliable the results. Using a portion of a season for example instead of the entire season of data is a way of 'cherry picking' stats to fit a pre-determined narrative. So a good rule of thumb is if one doesn't have at least a full season's worth of data your results will have a weak reliability score and thus aren't worth all that much. So when one uses say a half season to demonstrate how prolific a certain WR is, while ignoring the other half where the player did next to nothing, the statistical data is already compromised and doesn't really need to be refuted as you have suggested...

Half a season can be pretty relevant if the last 8 games are significantly better than the first--and especially if there was some condition that precipitated it (like a new QB) which is still in effect.  But yeah, virtually every WR is only going to have good games about half the time, so if you're just picking out his 8 best games from across the season, that's cherry-picking.

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10 hours ago, Ray_T said:

Look cherry pick or no cherry pick, all you can do is provide the stats and how you came about your conclusion.

if someone does not like the way you arrived at your conclusions, they can re do it their way and people can draw their own conclusions.

but if you are gonna accuse someone of cherry picking stats, you should be willing to re calc using the appropriate technique.

I think thats fair.

This isnt only directed at weepaws, this is directed at everyone.

If someone is going to go to the trouble to do a statistical analysis,  if you are gonna rip em apart, you should provide something better.

what I dont like is seeing someone do an analysis, someone comes in and says you did it wrong but then does not show us the correct way to do it.  Thats not actually helping.

 

If the person does cherry pick, then I’m not accusing anyone, I’m stating a fact. 

Thanks. 

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15 hours ago, Ray_T said:

what I dont like is seeing someone do an analysis, someone comes in and says you did it wrong but then does not show us the correct way to do it.  Thats not actually helping.

This happens a lot around here.

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On 6/21/2021 at 11:18 AM, AxeElf said:

Antonio Brown as a WR2?  Possibly top 5?  Weepaws?  Is that you?

Heard this morning on the fantasy sports channel (SiriusXM), that over the last 8 games Brown was WR24 - so, a WR2.  After virtually a full season and a half of no football, he literally stepped on the field and was a top 24 (PPR Avg), WR.  So, a WR2.  You don't think he can do that (be a WR2), with those 8 games now under his belt and a full off-season?

Top 5?  Yeah, as I said above "...with the possibility of any one of them being top 5 if another one of the three gets hurt and misses substantial time."  If Godwin or Evans miss significant time, Brown and Godwin/Evans (which ever one is healthy), will definitely be used more.

In 2019, Mike Evans got hurt in Week 14, so after 13 games... both Mike Evans and Chris Godwin were in the top 3.  Godwin was hurt the following week and both missed the last 2 games.  Godwin still finished the season as the #2WR and Evans finished as #14WR, but was 5th in average.  Meaning, all 3 WR's have the ability to finish in the top 5.  The only thing preventing that is that there's 3 of them.  If one misses a lot of time... any one of the 3 could finish top 5.

You do realize that Tampa was #5 in the NFL last year in pass completions, #2 in passing yards, and #2 in passing TD's, right?  We're talking about an elite passing offense in the NFL... not the Tennessee Titans who ranked 28th, 23rd, and 9th in those respective categories.

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3 hours ago, TBayXXXVII said:

Heard this morning on the fantasy sports channel (SiriusXM), that over the last 8 games Brown was WR24 - so, a WR2.  After virtually a full season and a half of no football, he literally stepped on the field and was a top 24 (PPR Avg), WR.  So, a WR2.  You don't think he can do that (be a WR2), with those 8 games now under his belt and a full off-season?

Top 5?  Yeah, as I said above "...with the possibility of any one of them being top 5 if another one of the three gets hurt and misses substantial time."  If Godwin or Evans miss significant time, Brown and Godwin/Evans (which ever one is healthy), will definitely be used more.

In 2019, Mike Evans got hurt in Week 14, so after 13 games... both Mike Evans and Chris Godwin were in the top 3.  Godwin was hurt the following week and both missed the last 2 games.  Godwin still finished the season as the #2WR and Evans finished as #14WR, but was 5th in average.  Meaning, all 3 WR's have the ability to finish in the top 5.  The only thing preventing that is that there's 3 of them.  If one misses a lot of time... any one of the 3 could finish top 5.

You do realize that Tampa was #5 in the NFL last year in pass completions, #2 in passing yards, and #2 in passing TD's, right?  We're talking about an elite passing offense in the NFL... not the Tennessee Titans who ranked 28th, 23rd, and 9th in those respective categories.

Not sure what the Titans have to do with anything, but come on...  "Antonio Brown was the #1 WR five years ago, and Evans was the #1 WR for 6 weeks in 2019, and Godwin was the #2 PPR in the even-numbered weeks of 2018, so all three could be in the top 5," isn't a convincing argument (and before you go all weepaws on me, I know I am exaggerating your argument for effect).

The only reason Brown snuck into the top 25 for the last 8 weeks of the season was because he was the #4 WR for the last three weeks of the season, in which he accumulated 266 of his 483 yards on the season, and had all four of his 2020 regular season TDs.  The other five games he played, Brown averaged 43.4 yards per game and exactly 0 TDs.  Talk about cherry-picking...

I will be flabbergasted if all three Tampa Bay WRs finish among the top 30--or if any of them are among the top 5.

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4 minutes ago, tanatastic said:

I’m thinking of Evans as a low 1, Godwin a 2 and AB a 3.

That's certainly possible.

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1 hour ago, AxeElf said:

The only reason Brown snuck into the top 25 for the last 8 weeks of the season was because he was the #4 WR for the last three weeks of the season, in which he accumulated 266 of his 483 yards on the season, and had all four of his 2020 regular season TDs.

I just noticed who the Buc's opponents were for those final three games:  Atlanta, Detroit, and Atlanta again.  lol

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Those last three games shows that the Bucs three good WRs , Brown had 49 non ppr points , Godwin had 48 non ppr points and Evans had 45 non ppr points in those last three games, ol man that’s a lot of non ppr points from three WRs on the same team, mo matter the opponent. 

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1 hour ago, tanatastic said:

I’m thinking of Evans as a low 1, Godwin a 2 and AB a 3.

I would agree, Brown was 21st in avg non ppr last season behind Evans and Godwin, so I can see that.  

 

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17 hours ago, AxeElf said:

I just noticed who the Buc's opponents were for those final three games:  Atlanta, Detroit, and Atlanta again.  lol

You might want to actually know football if you want people to take you seriously.  Dan Quinn's defense was awful.  He was fired after starting 0-5.  In those 5 games, their defense gave up 32.2 points per game.  After Morris took over, in the other 9 games (not counting the two vs Tampa), they gave up 19.8 points per game.  Because you're apparently new to football, the #4 defense in the NFL last year gave up 20.6 ppg.  In their last 12 games, Atlanta gave up more than 24 points only twice... both were Tampa.  Atlanta's defense wasn't as bad as you pretend they were.

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2 hours ago, TBayXXXVII said:

You might want to actually know football if you want people to take you seriously.  Dan Quinn's defense was awful.  He was fired after starting 0-5.  In those 5 games, their defense gave up 32.2 points per game.  After Morris took over, in the other 9 games (not counting the two vs Tampa), they gave up 19.8 points per game.  Because you're apparently new to football, the #4 defense in the NFL last year gave up 20.6 ppg.  In their last 12 games, Atlanta gave up more than 24 points only twice... both were Tampa.  Atlanta's defense wasn't as bad as you pretend they were.

Oh shut up already with your cherry-picking stats...  "In their other 9 games, not counting the first seven, and not counting two of the last nine, blah blah blah."  Atlanta was 4-9 by the time they played the Bucs, and had all but given up.  Antonio Brown benefitted from that.

You're so concerned with details that you miss the big picture sometimes.

You would at least look like less of a clown if you didn't act all condescending towards the greatest fantasy football mind this little planet has ever seen.

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26 minutes ago, AxeElf said:

Oh shut up already with your cherry-picking stats...  "In their other 9 games, not counting the first seven, and not counting two of the last nine, blah blah blah."  Atlanta was 4-9 by the time they played the Bucs, and had all but given up.  Antonio Brown benefitted from that.

You're so concerned with details that you miss the big picture sometimes.

You would at least look like less of a clown if you didn't act all condescending towards the greatest fantasy football mind this little planet has ever seen.

LOL, you can't even stay consistent.  In one post, you said that 8 games isn't cherry picking.  Then when I give you an 11 game stretch after a coaching change, you call it it cherry picking.  The only clown here is you, Bobo.  Your red nose is pretty big.  Here's a tip.  Know whst you're talking about before taking a stance.

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16 minutes ago, TBayXXXVII said:

Then when I give you an 11 game stretch after a coaching change, you call it it cherry picking.

An 11 game stretch... not counting two games... See ya Lulabelle...

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