Lockett vs Kirk vs Willams vs Aiyuk

[xenon 2]

Who'd you take and why in PPR?

Your rankings and why? 

 

Thanks

[weepaws 2,460]

Would that be M Williams who plays for the Chargers? 

[Lake209 34]

(Assuming Mike Williams; Chargers).  Great question.  All 4 should produce consistent WR-2 numbers (sometimes better) in most weeks; there is much to like and very few negatives.  Probably splitting hairs when ranking; guessing the season-ending winner(s) = throwing darts.  Doug Orth's Big Board(s) are useful to make comparisons.  For now, he has Lockett & Aiyuk in the Tier just above Williams & Kirk.  For what it's worth, here is a destined-to-be-wrong stab in the dark.

1) Kirk.  <--If all 4 of these WR's finish 'about the same' in most weeks or for the year (*assume: re-draft league) I'm picking the one I can get at lower ADP, thusly drafting a player I want in a higher round.

2) Lockett.  Should catch half the td volume of DK, but maybe more targets/catches/volume in most weeks. The add of JSN helps free him up downfield for big plays.

3) Aiyuk.  Year 3 WR; he seems poised to have a great season.  Cautious that Purdy *loves* throwing to Deebo and there are many other weapons at 49'ers.  Also concerned over the number of non-CMC pass plays to be called per game.  Should think that the talent is there in spades...but opportunity may be a bit lower.

4) Williams.  Might play on the best offense in the league this year.  Might catch more td's than any of the other 4.  Also the most likely to get hurt for 4-6 games, like he does most past seasons.  Probably more huge, week-winning WR-1' games than any of the other 4 - and - the most week-losing <10-point games.  Both fun & frustrating.  Love trading this guy for a good RB after a few boom-games.  

[GobbleDog 816]

1) Kirk - Wr 12 last year. Clearly has rapport with Lawrence, but likely won't repeat with Ridley in town. Still top 20+- seems reasonable with Lawrence taking another step and defenses focusing more on Ridley. A fairly "safe" pick and good value at adp.

near tie... 2) Aiyuk - Wr 15 last year. Niner's downfield threat who could top last year's 8 Tds as Purdy has a better deep ball than Jimmy G.

3) M Williams - Wr 32 last year due to injuries. No stat consistency... Tds, rec, and yardage fluctuate wildly. Still good to be in Herbert's 5,000+- yd offense, though he's a bit like Mahomes... spreads it around thin. Probably happens again with LA using a #1 on wr Quentin. Also injuries becoming concern.

4) Locket - Wr 13 last year. Rodney Dangerfield of Wr's - No respect. Every year outperforms ranking. When Geno took over and Locket turned 30 last year, a stat dip looked eminent. Still didn't happen. Now he's about to turn 31, Geno is still there, and Seahawks used a #1 on wr Njigba. Surely a stat dip happens this year?  Yeah, probably won't.

[weepaws 2,460]

Kirk, I want a piece of that offense, I know I’m not going to get Ridley at his adp.  

M Williams, I want a piece of that offense, I know I’m not going to get Allen at his adp.  

Aiyuk, simply think there is a little bit less mouths to feed.  

Lockett, deep threat, but I think when healthy the rookie Njigba could really take a lot of targets from both Metcalf and Lockett, plus based on history I’m having a tough time thinking that Geno as another season like he did last season.  

[Ray_T 591]

8 hours ago, xenon said:

Who'd you take and why in PPR?

Your rankings and why? 

 

Thanks

well, the good news is if you are in round 6 you are likely in a position to get two of them.

ADP's (taken a week ago so may not be 100% accurate as of todays date)

Williams   67

Aiyuk        70

Lockett    73

Kirk          76

and that is the order I'd take them as well.     I like Mike Williams the best.  hes in a great offense and hes underrated.     Aiyuk  I also like a lot at this point in the draft.  possibly on the verge of a breakout.  now that the QB situation is known and stabilized I like him more than before.

These two I like more than Lockett and Kirk.    and honestly, you can probably take Williams or Aiyuk in round 6 and get Lockett or Kirk in round 7.   Good news is there are a pile of WR at this point in the draft that look like they will get similar stats so there is actually a good chance one of these guys falls to you in round 7.

 

[Grack 3]

 

Some very close players. Good batch of WR2s. I like Williams and Kirk the best, but I tend to tunnel vision onto certain players and offenses. 

Williams - biggest upside, big plays, great offense, possible top 10 if he could stay healthy, but he will undoubtedly land on a ball and sprain his manhood. He's so up and down. I've been targeting him mid rounds in redraft after getting my starting 2 WRs. Swooped him for $7 in an auction. I considered that a steal. 

Lockett - plays for the seachickens, they will be throwing a bunch to stay in games. I never target him and I probably should pay more attention. The only season I had him he was broken. Things don't change much in Pete's world. He went for $11 in my draft I did not want a piece of him at that price. 

Kirk - volume should still be there, he was great for me last season. With Ridley around this should be interesting. I think its good for the entire offense. I have been targeting him mid rounds (after starters) in redraft and in the $6 or less range in auctions as a final WR. 

Aiyuk - a lot of low yardage games where TDs bailed him out. Any regression there and he dips much lower. I haven't been giving him much attention. So he'll prob top this list this season 

 

FWIW - last season they finished Kirk-Lockett-Aiyuk-Williams

 

[GobbleDog 816]

2 hours ago, Grack said:

Kirk - volume should still be there, he was great for me last season. With Ridley around this should be interesting. I think its good for the entire offense.

A rising tide lifts all ships. 

Kirk's volume probably goes down, but he'll be facing single-coverage all season so quality might go up. Could surpass last year's 8 Tds.

[Ray_T 591]

1 hour ago, GobbleDog said:

A rising tide lifts all ships. 

Kirk's volume probably goes down, but he'll be facing single-coverage all season so quality might go up. Could surprise last year's 8 Tds.

with WR, its also hard to say.  when a team goes from a losing team to a winning one, sometimes the WR who put up the numbers will change.

if the team is losing, certain guys may do well in garbage time.   good example of this was a guy named Cecil Shorts.   when he was fantasy worthy, he was the garbage time king.  but when the team started winning games his stats went sour.    he did well playing against the soft zone defenses that teams play in when they are up 2+ TD but early in the game against man defense  he didnt accomplish much.    I cant count the number of games where he got like 2 catches for 20 yards and then 5 more catches for 65-75 yards in garbage time (2nd half of 4th quarter)   when the team started winning the garbage time catches left and he became worthless as a WR. 

not saying thats the case here, but I would sure love to see someone do garbage time stats on the website.   I think that would be a useful tool for player analysis.