Draft Position in Ten Team PPR Redraft

[wolves111 104]

So once again I drew the 10th pick. Initially it disappointed me because of waiting 19 picks between rounds. However, the way ADP's are looking early it might be a good spot. Picking 10, 11 gets me a #1 RB and probably a #1 WR. Any combination of Taylor, Barkley, Gibbs, Puka, Brown, looks feasible. 

Anyone actually prefer the 10 th pick in a league like this?

[GobbleDog 981]

I prefer late over early. In PPR, two reliable stud Wrs to start would be my strategy. In your situation I'd be looking at Wilson-Nacua.

Too many good Rb options available in rds 5 though 9, to risk my early picks on the most unreliable position in ff.

[jrokh 608]

The Math is so weighted in favor of the first pick (12 team: pick 1, 24,25,48,49 vs 12,13, 36,37,60), that I can't imagine preferring the latter.

[GobbleDog 981]

12 minutes ago, jrokh said:

The Math is so weighted in favor of the first pick (12 team: pick 1, 24,25,48,49 vs 12,13, 36,37,60), that I can't imagine preferring the latter.

That's not math. I get preferring an early pick if ya want one of the big three - McCaff, Hall, or Bijan. But I don't draft Rbs early.

[jrokh 608]

49 minutes ago, GobbleDog said:

That's not math. I get preferring an early pick if ya want one of the big three - McCaff, Hall, or Bijan. But I don't draft Rbs early.

You are right, it’s more like simple arithmetic. Would u rather the first pick in rounds 1,3,5,7,9 or 2,4,6,8,10?

[wolves111 104]

4 minutes ago, jrokh said:

You are right, it’s more like simple arithmetic. Would u rather the first pick in rounds 1,3,5,7,9 or 2,4,6,8,10?

I can see the logic there. I guess another way to look at it is I'm getting two of the top 11 picks picking 10th. Picking 1st you get three of the top 21 player's in theory, and so on. 

Guess it all still comes down to picking the right players. G-Dog likes Wilson but the Jets are a cluster. Rodgers coming off injury, a year older and a year stranger gives me pause. 

[jrokh 608]

17 minutes ago, wolves111 said:

I can see the logic there. I guess another way to look at it is I'm getting two of the top 11 picks picking 10th. Picking 1st you get three of the top 21 player's in theory, and so on. 

Guess it all still comes down to picking the right players. G-Dog likes Wilson but the Jets are a cluster. Rodgers coming off injury, a year older and a year stranger gives me pause. 

True, picking the ‘right’ players far outweighs draft position…

[GobbleDog 981]

11 minutes ago, jrokh said:

True, picking the ‘right’ players far outweighs draft position…

In early rounds, it's a lot easier to pick the right Wr than the right Rb.

[GobbleDog 981]

53 minutes ago, wolves111 said:

 the Jets are a cluster.

Stout defense, great o-line, solid running game... not a cluster. 

Admittedly nobody knows how good or bad Rodgers will be post-injury. Zach Wilson was horrendous, yet Wilson finished Wr 23.  Volume goes a long way in ff... 147 targets rookie year, 168 targets last year.  Even a mediocre Rodgers should easily produce Wr 10+-. If Rodgers has a good to great year, top 5 is possible.

 

[wolves111 104]

46 minutes ago, GobbleDog said:

Stout defense, great o-line, solid running game... not a cluster. 

Admittedly nobody knows how good or bad Rodgers will be post-injury. Zach Wilson was horrendous, yet Wilson finished Wr 23.  Volume goes a long way in ff... 147 targets rookie year, 168 targets last year.  Even a mediocre Rodgers should easily produce Wr 10+-. If Rodgers has a good to great year, top 5 is possible.

 

Yep for sure. Wilson no doubt has top five talent. But the injury Rodgers sustained usually takes two years to fully recover from and he’s 40 years old. He hasn’t had a really good year since 2021. 
The plus for Wilson is that that the last two years he’s fourth in targets. And Rodgers fixates on his favorite WR.

Tough call but I’d draft Puka or Brown over him. 

 

[GobbleDog 981]

15 minutes ago, wolves111 said:

Tough call but I’d draft Puka or Brown over him.

Don't think you can go wrong with any of them.

It's the next "tier" of Wrs that worries me... Adams, Harrison, Olave, London, Pittman.  I prefer London, but talk about a leap of faith. None of those guys feel safe.

[Phil Simms 11 133]

If you add up the VBD expected values for the entire draft, the 1st pick comes out ahead. There’s some studies/articles that support this.

I like the top picks since I like the value in the 2nd/3rd round from the 1st spot as well, if picking from the 12th spot the drop off before I get my 3rd pick always felt more severe. 

 

[wolves111 104]

1 hour ago, GobbleDog said:

Don't think you can go wrong with any of them.

It's the next "tier" of Wrs that worries me... Adams, Harrison, Olave, London, Pittman.  I prefer London, but talk about a leap of faith. None of those guys feel safe.

Yeah I actually like the next tier better like Collins, D Smith, Waddle, Dell, Diggs among others. 
This year’s draft is a real coin flip 

[wolves111 104]

59 minutes ago, Phil Simms 11 said:

If you add up the VBD expected values for the entire draft, the 1st pick comes out ahead. There’s some studies/articles that support this.

I like the top picks since I like the value in the 2nd/3rd round from the 1st spot as well, if picking from the 12th spot the drop off before I get my 3rd pick always felt more severe. 

 

Pretty good analysis 

[Maximum Overkill 1,739]

6 hours ago, wolves111 said:

Anyone actually prefer the 10 th pick in a league like this?

My favorite spot to draft in a 10 teamer. There's so many good options there. 

 

[polecatt 474]

I prefer picking higher in the first round because you just have much more choice of who to draft.

After the first couple of rounds though, it's not so much if you're drafting at the end of the rounds or the start. It's more so, are you drafting near the turn of the round, where you have two picks back to back, or at least close together, or are you drafting in the middle of the round where they're more evenly apart, but just get one pick at a time.

I prefer picking closer to the turn of the round where I have back to back, or close, picks. It's just easier to plan and pick that way.