Trump Recession Thread (aka Trumpcession)

[seafoam1 3,188]

7 minutes ago, Maximum Overkill said:

That's not a nice word, apologize to your people  

Yeah. He has a thing for farm animals as well. 

[Maximum Overkill 2,096]

1 minute ago, seafoam1 said:

Yeah. He has a thing for farm animals as well. 

His hate for the Gay community is disgusting. 

[seafoam1 3,188]

18 minutes ago, Maximum Overkill said:

His hate for the Gay community is disgusting. 

Everything about his life is disgusting. 

[Horseman 2,559]

On 5/4/2025 at 9:16 PM, Ron_Artest said:

Recession.

 

On 5/21/2025 at 6:36 AM, Ron_Artest said:

The slow drip of bad news continues.  Just not looking good out there.

 

On 5/21/2025 at 7:54 PM, Ron_Artest said:

Weak treasury sale today. Rates pushed hire, equities sold off.

Not looking good.

 

On 6/4/2025 at 9:02 AM, Ron_Artest said:

May jobs number is out, 37k, lowest in 2 years.  Yikes!

Manufacturing jobs lost, oil and gas jobs lost.  This is a result of the tariffs and the price of oil.

 

On 6/4/2025 at 9:39 AM, Ron_Artest said:

Trump has really damaged the economy with his recklessness.

 

On 6/12/2025 at 6:46 AM, Ron_Artest said:

US tourism collapsing. 

 

On 6/13/2025 at 5:47 AM, Ron_Artest said:

Oil spiking, dow crashing.

This is what happens when the US withdraws as the world leader.

 

On 6/28/2025 at 7:42 AM, Ron_Artest said:

The US economy faces several headwinds right now.  We just saw the first contraction in years, unemployment has ticked up, businesses are not spending money as they wait for the chaos to subside, tariffs are finding their way into the supply chain, inflation is increasing, confidence is low, etc.  there are lots of signs of trouble ahead.

 Hysterical woman. 

As markets hit all time highs.  

[Ron_Artest 1,673]

4 minutes ago, Horseman said:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 Hysterical woman. 

As markets hit all time highs.  

So you're on record that this economy is the best economy we've ever seen?  Are we gonna see a 4% GDP?  10k on the SPY?

[Horseman 2,559]

Just now, Ron_Artest said:

So you're on record that this economy is the best economy we've ever seen?  Are we gonna see a 4% GDP?  10k on the SPY?

I'm on record saying it's been a great wealth generating economy so far this year, and that you're a hysterical woman.  

[Ron_Artest 1,673]

15 minutes ago, Horseman said:

I'm on record saying it's been a great wealth generating economy so far this year, and that you're a hysterical woman.  

Not nearly as good as last year, we'll see what the second half brings.

I wouldn't call a 6% YTD return as great wealth generating considering you can get 4% in cash and the USD down 10% YTD.

[Horseman 2,559]

6 minutes ago, Ron_Artest said:

Not nearly as good as last year, we'll see what the second half brings.

I wouldn't call a 6% YTD return as great wealth generating considering you can get 4% in cash and the USD down 10% YTD.

S&P is up 10% and the volatility has allowed me to rebalance 4 times generation free shares each time.   If you're not printing money right now you're a dumbass.  

But get more hysterical and keep waiting! 

[Ron_Artest 1,673]

Just now, Horseman said:

S&P is up 10% and the volatility has allowed me to rebalance 4 times generation free shares each time.   If you're not printing money right now you're a dumbass.  

But get more hysterical and keep waiting! 

What's your YTD return?

[Horseman 2,559]

Imagine having only a 6% return right now YTD.   Wow. 

A monkey could do better. 

[RLLD 4,272]

Is the recession in the room with us right now?

[squistion 2,260]

7 minutes ago, RLLD said:

Is the recession in the room with us right now?

Patience, Grasshopper. 

[Horseman 2,559]

Tech stocks are up over 12% YTD.   

Panicans will be right someday you just wait!

[RLLD 4,272]

3 hours ago, squistion said:

Patience, Grasshopper. 

A fair point, there is plenty of time left for mistakes to deliver such an outcome.  I note that legacy media is also figuring out that the doom-speak needs to be restrained for a minute.

[squistion 2,260]

https://x.com/Matthewtravis08/status/1955956640152252614

Since Trump took office:

Natural Gas prices are up 25%.

Electricity is up 19%.

Gas has not come down to $1.99 anywhere in the U.S.

Beef prices are up 80%.

Pork prices are up 23%.

Grocery prices continue to increase.

Auto prices have increased on average of $6000. per vehicle.

Trump’s tariffs are expected to cost American households an estimated $2400. in addition to all the other bulls**t.

Is this enough to own the “Woke Libs”?

Are we Great Again yet?

[Ron_Artest 1,673]

Greatest economy ever!

[squistion 2,260]

 

[Maximum Overkill 2,096]

8 hours ago, squistion said:

 

 

GDP soars and Trump's economy roars. Liberals still won't give him credit. Will Democrats put politics aside and applaud as the American economy shows a strength and resilience that so many of them doubted? Probably not.

- Thanks to President Donald Trump's bold policies, it appears that the United States will avoid a recession this year − one that so many liberals were predicting only months ago.

Will Democrats put politics aside and applaud as the American economy shows a strength and resilience that so many of them doubted? Probably not.

Nearly all markers of a strong economy are in top form. Unemployment is low, hovering at 4.1%. The past three months have seen steady job growth. Average hourly earnings for U.S. workers grew 3.7%.

@squistion @Ron_Artest 

 

[RLLD 4,272]

I might suggest we not trust GDP too much, as a real measure of economic health.  its too easily perverted.

[Ron_Artest 1,673]

32 minutes ago, RLLD said:

I might suggest we not trust GDP too much, as a real measure of economic health.  its too easily perverted.

What would you use as a good measure of economic health?

[RLLD 4,272]

10 minutes ago, Ron_Artest said:

What would you use as a good measure of economic health?

Multiple measures of course.  We should never pluck up anything that automatically confirms our individual bias, as a start....and then focusing only on GDP....easily perverted....ignores the wider reality.   By way of example, if you had a skin rash and I pretending this indicated cancer.....that would be really stupid....heralding or assailing GDP.....is equally stupid, and more indicative of a non-economic point you are hoping to make

[Ron_Artest 1,673]

2 minutes ago, RLLD said:

Multiple measures of course.  We should never pluck up anything that automatically confirms our individual bias, as a start....and then focusing only on GDP....easily perverted....ignores the wider reality.   By way of example, if you had a skin rash and I pretending this indicated cancer.....that would be really stupid....heralding or assailing GDP.....is equally stupid, and more indicative of a non-economic point you are hoping to make

What are some of those good multiple measures of economic health?

[RLLD 4,272]

6 minutes ago, Ron_Artest said:

What are some of those good multiple measures of economic health?

Jobs is a rather good one I think, and if you recall under Biden that was one of his strengths, so that was a good thing for him.  Inflation is important, because no matter how employed people are, or how far wages rise....inflation actually IS economic cancer. So then employment/unemployment is a pretty good one to consider, and moreover it can often refute GDP which people seem to forget can be really Keynsian. I also like to look at the consumer confidence index as a sort of sanity check against the others....so by way of example if you see employment rise but CCI lower, you are probably watching inflation talking...some people point to the stock exchange too, I guess that can be useful, but its often only tellin the story of the affluent

[Ron_Artest 1,673]

2 minutes ago, RLLD said:

Jobs is a rather good one I think, and if you recall under Biden that was one of his strengths, so that was a good thing for him.  Inflation is important, because no matter how employed people are, or how far wages rise....inflation actually IS economic cancer. So then employment/unemployment is a pretty good one to consider, and moreover it can often refute GDP which people seem to forget can be really Keynsian. I also like to look at the consumer confidence index as a sort of sanity check against the others....so by way of example if you see employment rise but CCI lower, you are probably watching inflation talking...some people point to the stock exchange too, I guess that can be useful, but its often only tellin the story of the affluent

Thanks.

Jobs; Last 3 months we've seen 106k jobs created.  For comparison same 3 months in 2024 was $635k

Inflation; 2.7%, not bad, but rising from 2.4 within 2 months.

Consumer Confidence: 58, down from 74 to start the year.  First time under 60 in 2 years.

So given your preferred indicators and their weakness particularly compared to last years economy which you classified as the worst economy of your lifetime, what would you say about this economy?

[TimHauck 3,005]

21 minutes ago, Ron_Artest said:

Thanks.

Jobs; Last 3 months we've seen 106k jobs created.  For comparison same 3 months in 2024 was $635k

Inflation; 2.7%, not bad, but rising from 2.4 within 2 months.

Consumer Confidence: 58, down from 74 to start the year.  First time under 60 in 2 years.

So given your preferred indicators and their weakness particularly compared to last years economy which you classified as the worst economy of your lifetime, what would you say about this economy?

Not his lifetime, unless he’s in the lower class

[Ron_Artest 1,673]

4 minutes ago, TimHauck said:

Not his lifetime, unless he’s in the lower class

whatever is was, but he's pretty low class.

I don't expect a response.  If I get one it will be gibberish.

[Horseman 2,559]

Gibberish, like $635,000 jobs and whatever is was?

[TimHauck 3,005]

6 minutes ago, Horseman said:

Gibberish, like $635,000 jobs and whatever is was?

Oh no he accidentally added a dollar sign! Aren’t you the guy that claimed poor spelling was a sign you’re a genius?

[Ron_Artest 1,673]

20 minutes ago, TimHauck said:

Oh no he accidentally added a dollar sign! Aren’t you the guy that claimed poor spelling was a sign you’re a genius?

He still doesn't know the difference between advice and advise. 

[edjr 6,636]

seems like everything but milk has significantly gone up in price at the grocery store