2024 - a good year for Rbs

[GobbleDog 984]

2024 ADP vs actual finish, noticed something unusual - very few Rbs missed more than a handful of games to injury - sorry McCaff drafters, he was an outlier. The few early/mid Rbs who didn't live up to ADP simply under-performed for whatever reason. In year's past, it was an extreme mix of injuries and under-performance. The data usually proved why drafting Rbs early was quite risky. Not last year. 

Among the 15 top ranked Rbs, only 3 were total disasters (McCaff, Etienne, Pacheco) and 2 were disappointments (Hall, Taylor). The others either met or exceeded ADP.  Even old-man Alvin Kamara stayed healthy until Wk 16, and still finished 7 spots higher than his ADP.

More RBBC systems reducing injuries - better medicine... or just a statistical anomaly.?. Whatever the reason, 2024 was unusually good for Rbs.

[weepaws 3,157]

Falcons B Robinson avg 16:4 points per game non ppr, Taylor avg 16:3.  Except for missing three games He seemed to perform on par.  

[GobbleDog 984]

13 minutes ago, weepaws said:

Falcons B Robinson avg 16:4 points per game non ppr, Taylor avg 16:3.  Except for missing three games He seemed to perform on par.  

Yeah Taylor didn't "disappoint" so much from performance, but the three missed gamed caused him to finish 13 spots below ADP (in ppr).

Out of the top ranked 22 Rbs - only McCaff, Pacheco and Walker missed more than 3 games to injury.  That's incredible. Rbs usually drop like flies.

[TBayXXXVII 2,485]

1 hour ago, GobbleDog said:

Yeah Taylor didn't "disappoint" so much from performance, but the three missed gamed caused him to finish 13 spots below ADP (in ppr).

Out of the top ranked 22 Rbs - only McCaff, Pacheco and Walker missed more than 3 games to injury.  That's incredible. Rbs usually drop like flies.

Taylor was fine.  He was my RB2 last year and averaged over 17 ppg.  He was money in the playoffs, well, the last 2 weeks anyway.  I had a bye, so I didn't care.  I think there is worry of high risk/high reward though when Richardson in on the field.  If he's starting again, I think I might drop Taylor a round, in my rankings.

[Drogon 16]

3 hours ago, GobbleDog said:

Yeah Taylor didn't "disappoint" so much from performance, but the three missed gamed caused him to finish 13 spots below ADP (in ppr).

Out of the top ranked 22 Rbs - only McCaff, Pacheco and Walker missed more than 3 games to injury.  That's incredible. Rbs usually drop like flies.

2024 was the year of the injured WR's.

[GobbleDog 984]

44 minutes ago, Drogon said:

2024 was the year of the injured WR's.

True. Comparing apples to apples -

Only 3 of the top 22 ranked Rbs missed more than three games.

While 6 of the top 22 ranked Wrs missed more than three.

To make matters worse, many of those top 22 ranked Wrs just badly under-performed - Hill, Harrison, Deebo, Pittman, Metcalf, Waddle.  None missed significant time, yet all finished way below their ADP rank.  It was a rough year for early Wr drafters... like me.  

[polecatt 474]

It was a very good season for RBs...

I had more or less written off RBs from a fantasy stand point. I considered them about like TEs. There's a couple of good ones at the top, but outside of that, you're pretty much playing TD roulette with the rest.

However, 2024 was a bit of a come back for the RB.

I guess I shouldn't be too surprised. Once the game gets tilted too far one way, it's bound to swing back the other way.

All it takes is a couple of RBs to dominate against weak competition for them to be big.

I think 2025 will be another big season for several RBs

[GobbleDog 984]

11 hours ago, polecatt said:

I think 2025 will be another big season for several RBs

Obviously some Rbs have big stats every season. 2025 will probably have Rb injury rates more consistent with past years. Don't know why I used "top 22" earlier, but for comparison purposes let's stay consistent. Number of top 22 ranked Rbs in 2023 that missed more than 3 games... 8. For Wrs it was... 3. Total flip-flop this year. 

Also the correlation of ADP to actual finish for Rbs was high this year, compared to Wrs. That rarely happens.  Usually when top ranked Wrs don't meet ADP, they aren't too far below it, as opposed to Rbs. The opposite was true in 2024.  Bizzaro year.

[polecatt 474]

10 hours ago, GobbleDog said:

Obviously some Rbs have big stats every season. 2025 will probably have Rb injury rates more consistent with past years. Don't know why I used "top 22" earlier, but for comparison purposes let's stay consistent. Number of top 22 ranked Rbs in 2023 that missed more than 3 games... 8. For Wrs it was... 3. Total flip-flop this year. 

Also the correlation of ADP to actual finish for Rbs was high this year, compared to Wrs. That rarely happens.  Usually when top ranked Wrs don't meet ADP, they aren't too far below it, as opposed to Rbs. The opposite was true in 2024.  Bizzaro year.

Oh trust me, I know, it flip flopped with RBs and WRs. I felt it. I won my dynasty league in 2023, with a WR heavy roster. They fell off a bit in 2024, and I lost in the semifinals. I only carried 2 or 3 RBs most of the season. It's just evident, there's different trends in fantasy football each year. They're very difficult to predict. Which players will thrive, which positions. That's the magic.

I expect the surge in RBs to linger for a bit. They seem to be popular now. There's a lot of talent. I think the RB by committee thing, not dead, but not nearly as popular as it was not long ago. Teams want a feature RB.

[weepaws 3,157]

Doing some mock drafts, non ppr about normal, but in ppr, Rbs going early, so after my first few ppr mocks, I changed and hit the wr slot early, ending up by the 5th rd getting Rbs like Hall, Montgomery, N Harris types.   But ended up loaded at wr.  So I might be changing my ppr drafting routine, and go WRs first three maybe even four picks, then Rbs.  

My favorite time of ff, is this time, getting ready for my two drafts.  Thanks. 

[polecatt 474]

On 5/2/2025 at 2:07 PM, weepaws said:

Doing some mock drafts, non ppr about normal, but in ppr, Rbs going early, so after my first few ppr mocks, I changed and hit the wr slot early, ending up by the 5th rd getting Rbs like Hall, Montgomery, N Harris types.   But ended up loaded at wr.  So I might be changing my ppr drafting routine, and go WRs first three maybe even four picks, then Rbs.  

My favorite time of ff, is this time, getting ready for my two drafts.  Thanks. 

That's not a bad way to go.

There's always a few high end RB1s, but it's that 2nd and 3rd tier that really fell flat in recent years. I expect that range to be surprisingly deep this season

[Ray_T 740]

On 5/2/2025 at 12:07 PM, weepaws said:

Doing some mock drafts, non ppr about normal, but in ppr, Rbs going early, so after my first few ppr mocks, I changed and hit the wr slot early, ending up by the 5th rd getting Rbs like Hall, Montgomery, N Harris types.   But ended up loaded at wr.  So I might be changing my ppr drafting routine, and go WRs first three maybe even four picks, then Rbs.  

My favorite time of ff, is this time, getting ready for my two drafts.  Thanks. 

yeah, the lanscape has changed somewhat and depending on how many WR/RB you start, and the rules in your league, the order you pick them can greatly vary.

My big money keeper league (standard league, no PPR) starts 3 WR (actually 2 WR and a WR/TE flex which usually means you start 3 WR)  and 2 RB as well as 2 QB (superflex)

If only starting 2 WR I think its still to your advantage to go RB early, but if you are starting 3, that makes it a lot tougher.    the last couple years, Ive typically I tried to get one stud WR early (as those types cannot be replaced) and then wait a couple rounds before drafting another WR opting to fill the RB spots.   granted thats a standard league.   PPR is a little different