Upper Class Trash 67 Posted January 26, 2015 Anyone wagering on any of the Prop bets? Right now, the over/under on Edelman is 6 receptions. I have a decent amount of money on that one for the over already, but am considering a few others. The Patriots are the top team in the NFL in short passes and the Seahawks have one minor issue vs. the pass; The short passes.... I see Edelman in the 9/10 reception range for this game. Dinking and dunking will be the flavor of the day, I believe. The over/under on Wilson's rushing is 40.5 yards with the over being +120. I haven't decided, but I do tend to like the over on this one as his WR's should be covered pretty well and they will have to open up lanes for Lynch somehow. Lynch is interesting at 89.5 yards on the over/under, but I'm a bit concerned about wagering on him. I think Browner and Revis can take out Kearse and Baldwin without any assistance. If so, and the Patriots put a Safety in the middle of the field, they'll have 8 men in the box at all times to chase Lynch. He is a beast though. Still, this may be a line to just track and not wager on. Ah, who am I kidding. I'll probably bet the over on Lynch, but it would be a very low wager and one done on impulse. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Djgb13 2,338 Posted January 26, 2015 Where are you doing these bets at? I might get in on the over for Edelman. Seattle is horrible at short passes and the patriot excel at that. So 9/10 receptions isn't out of reach for him Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
swirvenirvin 25 Posted January 27, 2015 Blount under 4.5 receiving -115 Blount 1st TD +1000 Seahawks total players to attempt a rush under 4 -150 Blount MVP 26-1 Blount over 60.5 +105 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Mr Neil 63 Posted January 27, 2015 James Develin scores first TD +6000 $10 on it to win $600 Edelman 81-90 Rec yds +1200 $10 to win $120 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
TheUsualSuspect 207 Posted January 28, 2015 Blount under 4.5 receiving -115 Blount 1st TD +1000 Seahawks total players to attempt a rush under 4 -150 Blount MVP 26-1 Blount over 60.5 +105 Like it... Blount at 4.5 rec is mind boggling. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Upper Class Trash 67 Posted January 28, 2015 Where are you doing these bets at? I might get in on the over for Edelman. Seattle is horrible at short passes and the patriot excel at that. So 9/10 receptions isn't out of reach for him Bovada is where I do my wagering. Sometimes their line is a bit different than at other places by a point or so, but they have never given me any issues when it comes to payouts and I've never felt like they were shady. I used Sportsbook.com back in the day (around 2002-2004) and when you called them, they had no one who was capable of speaking even semi-clear English. They always paid, but you would be on the phone with them for 30 minutes trying to explain what you wanted. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
dain11279 928 Posted January 28, 2015 I took the Edelman bet as well. Unfortunately it's moved to 6.5 already But I still believe it to be a good bet. Like someone said before, 9 or 10 receptions is very realistic. The line might be 7 or 7.5 by gametime Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
swirvenirvin 25 Posted January 28, 2015 Like it... Blount at 4.5 rec is mind boggling. line has stayed at 4.5 but dropped to -150 and -180 on the sites that offer it now Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Djgb13 2,338 Posted January 28, 2015 line has stayed at 4.5 but dropped to -150 and -180 on the sites that offer it now I'm thinking they use vereen more this game. Blount could almost be a non factor. Thinking of taking a few bets on vereen Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
swirvenirvin 25 Posted January 28, 2015 I took the Edelman bet as well. Unfortunately it's moved to 6.5 already But I still believe it to be a good bet. Like someone said before, 9 or 10 receptions is very realistic. The line might be 7 or 7.5 by gametime Not going to move off the 6.5 to 7. Takes a lot to do that. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
dain11279 928 Posted January 28, 2015 Like it... Blount at 4.5 rec is mind boggling. You sure that isn't yards and not receptions? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
swirvenirvin 25 Posted January 28, 2015 I'm thinking they use vereen more this game. Blount could almost be a non factor. Thinking of taking a few bets on vereen Blount should very much be a factor. This isnt your typical Pats going against a good rushing defense so will air it out. Seattle passing defense is better than their rushing. Lacy, Stewart, and other bigger backs have had success vs Seattle Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Djgb13 2,338 Posted January 28, 2015 Blount should very much be a factor. This isnt your typical Pats going against a good rushing defense so will air it out. Seattle passing defense is better than their rushing. Lacy, Stewart, and other bigger backs have had success vs Seattle True but they are also weak against the short passes. This is where I see vereen and Edelman eating them up Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Mr Neil 63 Posted January 28, 2015 I actually took edelman total rec yards 101-110 at +1800 He is gonna top 100 on 9-10 catches Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
dcgangstas 41 Posted January 28, 2015 Wonder what the over/under on Lynch doing the "Deez Nutz" in the end zone is. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
LaChup 154 Posted January 28, 2015 Blount under 4.5 receiving -115 Blount 1st TD +1000 Seahawks total players to attempt a rush under 4 -150 Blount MVP 26-1 Blount over 60.5 +105 Seahawks total players to attempt a rush under 4 seems a little sketchy to me. Lynch, Wilson, Turbin, and at least one end around seems very likely. That's a no play for me. Like the others. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Mr Neil 63 Posted January 29, 2015 Wonder what the over/under on Lynch doing the "Deez Nutz" in the end zone is. +450 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
swirvenirvin 25 Posted January 29, 2015 Seahawks total players to attempt a rush under 4 seems a little sketchy to me. Lynch, Wilson, Turbin, and at least one end around seems very likely. That's a no play for me. Like the others. yeah thats if there is an end around. Whats that maybe 50/50. But they most likely are not going to do another so push looks like worst case Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Upper Class Trash 67 Posted January 29, 2015 No big deal on the Edelman line moving to 6.5. He had to hit 7 anyway if you got in on the 6. The only way I don't see him hitting this number is if he gets hit by one of those huge Seattle Safety's and gets knocked out, which is actually possible. I'm trying to figure out who the top pick should be for MVP. I'm thinking someone is going to step up that we aren't considering yet. Seattle is going to need a receiver to step up, or a TE. New England may bring in the ball boy to run the ball and shock us all.... Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Djgb13 2,338 Posted January 29, 2015 No big deal on the Edelman line moving to 6.5. He had to hit 7 anyway if you got in on the 6. The only way I don't see him hitting this number is if he gets hit by one of those huge Seattle Safety's and gets knocked out, which is actually possible. I'm trying to figure out who the top pick should be for MVP. I'm thinking someone is going to step up that we aren't considering yet. Seattle is going to need a receiver to step up, or a TE. New England may bring in the ball boy to run the ball and shock us all.... I think kearse might be a good candidate for seattles MVP. Vereen is a decent bet for New England Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
swirvenirvin 25 Posted January 31, 2015 I am writing this to urge prop betters to keep a close eye on the inactive list for the following reason:Those of us who watch the Patriots play every week know that when the Pats go run-heavy -- as they did with Indy -- they activate Cameron Fleming to serve as an extra lineman on heavy sets. The thing is: if they don't plan on using that set, his roster spot goes to someone else (maybe an extra WR like Brian Tyms, or a special teamer like Chris White). So before placing prop bets on several key rushing props, look at the inactive list.If Fleming is active (I suspect he will, but only the Pats know for sure)Blount Over 14.5 carriesBlount OVER rushing yards (forget the number off the top of head)Edelman OVER .5 carries (they almost always run a reverse once defense starts biting toward the Fleming side of the line -- 11/16 games this year Edelman has a carry, and it is often out of this heavy set.)Hooman -- over 6.5 yards receiving -- hooman will get a lot of snaps if they run heavy formation a lot. Also, know that having these extra lineman was a key part of Belichick's inielgible, eligible stuff -- So I do suspect Fleming will be active. But, if Fleming is inactive...I would bet the UNDER on those Blount/Edelman rushing/carries stuff. Plus, I will strongly consider betting :OVER for Vereen carriesOVER Vereen yardsOver Vereen catchesas without the heavy set, he will get twice as many snaps, and thus, likely more yards, carries and catches. I really think this provides an edge to close observers of the Pats -- and hopefully one the books are not too keen on -- that is the beauty of props (and hence the harsh maximum bet restrictions. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
TheUsualSuspect 207 Posted February 1, 2015 You sure that isn't yards and not receptions? You are correct, it is yards. And if I could get +120 or better on the UNDER, I'd still fire. He's not catching a pass. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Djgb13 2,338 Posted February 1, 2015 Just got a win from that Brady interception! Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Upper Class Trash 67 Posted February 2, 2015 The only regret I have is not wagering more on that Edelman prop. That was the easiest prop I've seen in the Superbowl in years. I was lucky with the Lynch 'over' prop, as that one could have gone either way. I took SwirvenIrvin's advice above and put money on Verren 'over' receptions Saturday night, and my last prop bet was placed on Sunday, which was Edelman to score a TD. I figured what the hell, let's just go all in on Edelman. The crazy thing is I haven't watched a Patriots game all season long, outside of one half against Baltimore in the playoffs. I just looked at their game logs online and thought it sounded good. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
dain11279 928 Posted February 3, 2015 I actually took edelman total rec yards 101-110 at +1800 He is gonna top 100 on 9-10 catches Most impressive I went small on Wilson or Vereen to score the first TD. But went a little bigger on 4 other props and hit them all. Brady over yards and attempts. Edelman over catches and Lynch over yards. I already miss football Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
