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#1 Maulers1973

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Posted 13 November 2017 - 10:44 AM

Is this even real?  Do people that don't work for them win?  I mean seriously.  

I've tried it on my own.  I've tried it using advice given by so-called experts like Evan Silva, Rich Rhibar and others.  I understand the premise.  We analyze players with opportunity and matchups.  For example, Powell this past weekend was going to have an increase in opportunity due to Forte out of the lineup, and since Powell was a cheap play it made sense.  

 

I have re-evaluated the contests that I enter trying to minimize risk to sharks etc.  I'm mostly playing low-stakes tourneys with either limited entries or single entry and I try to choose tourneys with a moderate number of entries of about 5k or less.  

So, what gives?  Why can I only win $1 and $3 at a time.  It doesn't seem to correlate to score either.  I've had contests where I scored 131 ff pts and won $3. Then, last week I had my highest score ever of 184.9 ff on DK and that was good for $1.

 

I know some here don't play and don't like it.  If that's you then move on.  If you play, how do you feel about it?  Do you truly feel that it is legit?  I'm mostly talking about Draft Kings and Fanduel.  

 

 


QB Mariota

RB DJ

RB KHunt

RB Carson

RB Henry

RB C. Thompson

WR OBJ

WR Garcon

WR C Davis

WR M Bryant

WR N Agholor

K  Dawson

DL Garrett

DL Y Ngakoue

LB B Wagner

LB P Brown

DB L Collins

DB Vaccaro


#2 RedzoneMonster

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Posted 13 November 2017 - 12:33 PM

With tournaments I am at the point where I just enter the one $7 1.5 mil from fanduel.  Top prize usually around 300k - 400k.  It's basically like playing the lottery, but at least you have some say in it.  When you look at the lineups of the people that win these huge prizes they look so simple.  For example this week the guy in the lead for the 300K lineup is Keenum, Gurley, Ingram, Thielen, AJ Green, Shepard, V. Davis, Zuerlien, Rams DEF.   You look at that and say "I COULD DO THAT", yet somehow you never do....



#3 Maulers1973

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Posted 13 November 2017 - 12:51 PM

Lot of chalk plays bombed this week.  Brady, Brees, Bell, Howard, Fournette, AB, Gronk, Jets D,  Definitely a rough week.  I had Shepard, Woods, Ingram and Kamara in linups, just not all in the same lineup.  Brate and the Jets crushed a lot of builds.   


QB Mariota

RB DJ

RB KHunt

RB Carson

RB Henry

RB C. Thompson

WR OBJ

WR Garcon

WR C Davis

WR M Bryant

WR N Agholor

K  Dawson

DL Garrett

DL Y Ngakoue

LB B Wagner

LB P Brown

DB L Collins

DB Vaccaro


#4 Frozenbeernuts

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Posted 13 November 2017 - 02:18 PM

It's so much easier early part of the season

#5 Maulers1973

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Posted 13 November 2017 - 03:08 PM

It's so much easier early part of the season

 

I wonder why that is.  Is it that chalk plays work better?  Pricing comes out so early that value plays become studs such as:  Kareem Hunt week 1?  


QB Mariota

RB DJ

RB KHunt

RB Carson

RB Henry

RB C. Thompson

WR OBJ

WR Garcon

WR C Davis

WR M Bryant

WR N Agholor

K  Dawson

DL Garrett

DL Y Ngakoue

LB B Wagner

LB P Brown

DB L Collins

DB Vaccaro


#6 Frozenbeernuts

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Posted 13 November 2017 - 04:12 PM

 
I wonder why that is.  Is it that chalk plays work better?  Pricing comes out so early that value plays become studs such as:  Kareem Hunt week 1?  


The sleepers are a good price before they get figured out

#7 Mike FF Today

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Posted 20 November 2017 - 10:50 AM

Every week is different and just because you make good plays, doesn't mean those plays are going to pan out. There's a ton of variance in fantasy football which is reflected in the weekly scores. Cash lines aren't static... if a bunch of chalk plays hit in a given week, then the score required to cash will be higher.

 

If your goal is to win a tournament, even a relatively small tournament, I'd suggest you not only understand the best value plays of the week, but make sure you get a good feel for ownership percentages and fade the chalk.

 

EX: In the week Powell was popular, it made sense to fade him in GPP and tourney's due to his expected high ownership percentage.


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#8 ChinaCat

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Posted 20 November 2017 - 11:10 AM

I hit one tourney for $2500 buit I mostly do head to heads. Usually either $109 or the $250 ones..

 

My last 7 head to heads I am 1-6

 

I don't know how they do it but these scumbags keep on kicking my ass. And the more they do it the more pissed off I get and I go back in. 



#9 ChinaCat

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Posted 20 November 2017 - 11:11 AM

Every week is different and just because you make good plays, doesn't mean those plays are going to pan out. There's a ton of variance in fantasy football which is reflected in the weekly scores. Cash lines aren't static... if a bunch of chalk plays hit in a given week, then the score required to cash will be a higher.

 

If you're goal is to win a tournament, even a relatively small tournament, I'd suggest you not only understand the best value plays of the week, but make sure you get a good feel for ownership percentages and fade the chalk.

 

EX: In the week Powell was popular, it made sense to fade him in GPP and tourney's due to his expected high ownership percentage.

 

 

How can you see ownership percentages on those sites?



#10 Maulers1973

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Posted 20 November 2017 - 01:59 PM

I had my best score to date on Draftkings on a full 20 multi entry shove into a .25 contest.  I had one lineup hit for 202.90 which was only 21 pts off 1st.  It paid out $7.   lol   I had 13 lineups reach pay in that contest and won a grant total of $18.  LOL

 

I probably need to look for smaller volume tourneys of about 100 or so.  


QB Mariota

RB DJ

RB KHunt

RB Carson

RB Henry

RB C. Thompson

WR OBJ

WR Garcon

WR C Davis

WR M Bryant

WR N Agholor

K  Dawson

DL Garrett

DL Y Ngakoue

LB B Wagner

LB P Brown

DB L Collins

DB Vaccaro


#11 ChinaCat

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Posted 20 November 2017 - 03:14 PM

I had Keenum in my lineup 2 weeks ago when he threw 4 TD's. But I pulled him out becuase I got spooked when I saw Bridgewater was the same price. $6000. I thought he might be on a short leash.

 

I plugged in Brady and had to make some other adjustments and I ended up splitting my 2 head to heads.



#12 redsrback

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Posted 20 November 2017 - 04:44 PM

I hit one tourney for $2500 buit I mostly do head to heads. Usually either $109 or the $250 ones..

 

My last 7 head to heads I am 1-6

 

I don't know how they do it but these scumbags keep on kicking my ass. And the more they do it the more pissed off I get and I go back in. 

Can we go against each other Cat lol



#13 Maulers1973

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Posted 20 November 2017 - 05:10 PM

202.90 Lineup:

 

Brees

Ingram

Kamara

K Allen

B Ellington

M Thomas

Kroft

D Lewis

Jags D


QB Mariota

RB DJ

RB KHunt

RB Carson

RB Henry

RB C. Thompson

WR OBJ

WR Garcon

WR C Davis

WR M Bryant

WR N Agholor

K  Dawson

DL Garrett

DL Y Ngakoue

LB B Wagner

LB P Brown

DB L Collins

DB Vaccaro


#14 SpenceToons

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Posted 20 November 2017 - 05:32 PM

202.90 Lineup:

 

Brees

Ingram

Kamara

K Allen

B Ellington

M Thomas

Kroft

D Lewis

Jags D

 

Nice work, man.



#15 CharlieChan

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Posted 20 November 2017 - 06:16 PM

I hit one tourney for $2500 buit I mostly do head to heads. Usually either $109 or the $250 ones..

 

My last 7 head to heads I am 1-6

 

I don't know how they do it but these scumbags keep on kicking my ass. And the more they do it the more pissed off I get and I go back in. 

 

Most humbly advise to never put money at risk in anger. State of Chan family finances never draw attention of wife because speculation done at such small stakes that results never draw attention of Mr. Chan.

 

Cat who tries to catch two mice at one time goes without supper.



#16 ChinaCat

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Posted 20 November 2017 - 11:17 PM

 

 

 

Cat who tries to catch two mice at one time goes without supper.

Cat had White Castle.