Anyone think LJ could be the next...

[MudDawgs4Life 6]

Everybody loves a young back. Especially one that scores 20 TDs while only starting half the season.

 

But is he really #1 pick worthy? How many times to we get 1st round biten by guys like this?

 

Willis McGahee scored 13 TDs while only starting 11 games in 2004 making him a top pick in last year's draft. Now he's clearly not.

 

Julius Jones scored 7 TDs in 7 starts in 2004, only to regress.

 

Kevin Jones scored 4 TDs in his last 5 games in 2004, now he's a third round selection.

 

LJ seems like a total sicko. He seems like the next best thing and is ready to rewrite the record books. But what if he doesn't, what if he's the next willis mcgahee, kevin jones, or even worse (get ready), maybe he's the next willie green.

 

I have the #2 pick in my redraft league and I just can't figure out if it's a blessing, or a sin, if LJ is there for me instead of Shaun.

 

Have we all been blinded to the possibility that he might stumble?

[Dr Hook 6]

Somebody has to be the first pick. I would have to say he i in the top 3 for sure. You never know what your gonna get Forrest.

[Crestwood 0]

with that offensive line in front of LJ, unless he gets hurt, there is no reason why he doesnt get at least 1400 yrds, 15 tds, and i'm being really conservative with that number

[SmartassBoiler 0]

with that offensive line in front of LJ, unless he gets hurt, there is no reason why he doesnt get at least 1400 yrds, 15 tds, and i'm being really conservative with that number

 

Exactly. I understand the concern, but the offense around LJ this year is quite a bit better than what surrounded McGahee last year. As we learned from Barlow the season before McGahee, and again with McGahee last year (both had similar ADP's in their respective bust years), we cannot overvalue unproven RBs with poor surrounding offensive situations, no matter what they did the previous half-season or season. Kevin Jones falls into this comparison as well.

 

If you're concerned with LJ, then just take LT or Alexander instead. If they're off the board, would you seriously rather have Portis or Edge instead of LJ?

[MudDawgs4Life 6]

Exactly. I understand the concern, but the offense around LJ this year is quite a bit better than what surrounded McGahee last year. As we learned from Barlow the season before McGahee, and again with McGahee last year (both had similar ADP's in their respective bust years), we cannot overvalue unproven RBs with poor surrounding offensive situations, no matter what they did the previous half-season or season. Kevin Jones falls into this comparison as well.

 

If you're concerned with LJ, then just take LT or Alexander instead. If they're off the board, would you seriously rather have Portis or Edge instead of LJ?

 

I have been preaching LJ for a long time. Even after week 1 of last year, when Priest was very much still in the picture, on this board I said LJ will be the #1 pick in 2006. And I guess Willis did have many more question marks than LJ has and he was usually taken in the bottom half of the first round, rarely getting more respect than that in 2005 and his critics were correct.

 

I just don't want to draft Willis McGahee or Willie Green with the very powerful 2nd pick in the draft when I can draft Ladanian Tomlinson.

 

If LJ goes first, a great possibility, Shaun @ 2 is a no brainer.

[Stars 0]

LJ has shown it too many times, though. He's been too consistent. He's clearly a fabulous talent imho.

 

Very harsh to have him down as a flash in the pan.

 

There's always a risk, even with the top picks. I remember the year that I picked Faulk no.1, he was injured soon thereafter and Priest took the league to the cleaners. Marshall F was the consensus no.1 pick that year, and I bummed.

 

This year there are question marks over the top 3 RBs - but in my mind the one with fewest question marks is LJ. I'd take him at 1.1, I think, if I wasn't retaining him at 1.10 in a 12 player league...

[mr.shitty 0]

should be the #1 pick in every draft

 

barring injury, he should be the #1 rb after the season

[Mack 1 6]

Fine. Don't draft him and let someone else ride him all the way to the championship.

[toofunny 0]

Everybody loves a young back. Especially one that scores 20 TDs while only starting half the season.

 

But is he really #1 pick worthy? How many times to we get 1st round biten by guys like this?

 

Willis McGahee scored 13 TDs while only starting 11 games in 2004 making him a top pick in last year's draft. Now he's clearly not.

 

Julius Jones scored 7 TDs in 7 starts in 2004, only to regress.

 

Kevin Jones scored 4 TDs in his last 5 games in 2004, now he's a third round selection.

 

LJ seems like a total sicko. He seems like the next best thing and is ready to rewrite the record books. But what if he doesn't, what if he's the next willis mcgahee, kevin jones, or even worse (get ready), maybe he's the next willie green.

 

I have the #2 pick in my redraft league and I just can't figure out if it's a blessing, or a sin, if LJ is there for me instead of Shaun.

 

Have we all been blinded to the possibility that he might stumble?

 

I think it's clear if you watch them play.

 

LJs upper body strength and balance is insane. Watch how few times he gets taken to the ground. If a defender rides him out of bounds, LJ usually throws him off and remains standing. I'm not sure if it's more balance or strength, but watching him a lot last year I was very impressed with how hard it is to take him down.

 

KJ/JJ/McGahee are on mostly crappy teams, and are a fair bit smaller then LJ. I'm not sure LJ is that much better then most other RBs, I believe it's also the system they play with. But in ANY system, I still give LJ the edge physically.

[Gephardt69 0]

I'm not sure LJ is that much better then most other RBs, I believe it's also the system they play with.

 

agreed here. priest holmes was a nobody, went to kc, and suddenly became the bee's knees. then larry johnson, a fockin nittany lion of all things, came in and kicked ass. hell, even that other guy who's now backing up curtis martin kicked ass when he was put in for a couple of games. point is, an average back behind a kickass o-line will have great numbers.

 

in other words, lj doesn't become the next mcgahee until he either leaves or the linemen do!

[GobbleDog 996]

Willis McGahee scored 13 TDs while only starting 11 games in 2004 making him a top pick in last year's draft. Now he's clearly not.

Julius Jones scored 7 TDs in 7 starts in 2004, only to regress.

Kevin Jones scored 4 TDs in his last 5 games in 2004, now he's a third round selection.

 

LJ seems like a total sicko. He seems like the next best thing and is ready to rewrite the record books. But what if he doesn't, what if he's the next willis mcgahee, kevin jones, or even worse (get ready), maybe he's the next willie green.

 

I for one, agree with you. I HATE drafting a player based on his "projected" stats, by looking at a half year's stats and translating it into a full year. I want to see proven stats for a full year. (To my credit, I was spouting off this same point last year about K Jones and J Jones.)

 

This is why I rank LJ #3, instead of #1 or #2. Not much of a drop, but some. Eventually, his incredible potential justifies his risk.

[Raider 84 29]

I agree that he will be great with that O-line. I think just about any back would be good behind that line.

[ROCKET 0]

LJ has been dominant 2 seasons in a row when he was the starter. He now is the undisputed starter. He is the safest pick on the board and barring injury is all but guaranteed to be a top 3 rb. He has ntohing left to prove after last year IMO. If I am lucky enough to get the first pick I'll happily grab LJ. Willis isn't and never was in the same catagory as LJ.

[toofunny 0]

I for one, agree with you. I HATE drafting a player based on his "projected" stats, by looking at a half year's stats and translating it into a full year. I want to see proven stats for a full year. (To my credit, I was spouting off this same point last year about K Jones and J Jones.)

 

This is why I rank LJ #3, instead of #1 or #2. Not much of a drop, but some. Eventually, his incredible potential justifies his risk.

 

It's not a half of a year.

 

Go check 2004. The guy was the best RB the last 6-7 games of the year. He had what 11 tds in the final 6 games of 2004? Then 2005 explodes again when he gets a chance.

 

LJ sat a year, then got a shot, then got another shot, and each time he's dominated.

 

I agree I'd take SA 1st. LT/LJ is very close. Losing Brees might change the dynamic of the team, along with LT trailing off last year. But I'd probably agree LT is the more proven RB.

 

Regardless, LJ is a beast. It's like asking do you want the red, blue, or black Ferrari. Either one will make you look good. =)

[Savage Beast 1]

LJ would be an NFL stud fantasy RB no matter what NFL team he started for. Being in KC only makes his stud factor a no-brainer.

[Jay 0]

It's not even a reasonable comparison. As mentioned, LJ plays behind one of the strongest offensive lines in the league with a strong passing game to take pressure off. Buffalo has a dismal offensive line and had essentially a rookie QB that looked like a deer in headlights. Night and day difference.

[Crestwood 0]

i hate to do this and make a prediction like this, but i wouldn't be shocked if lj has one of the most incredible FF and real football season ever this upcoming year. if everything goes smoothy and he stays healthy, i could see him breaking records this year

 

look at his numbers his last 8 games when holmes went down:

 

8 games, 1244 yrds, 16 tds,

 

total stats (counting receptions)

 

8 games, 1520 tot yards (276 rec included), 17 tot tds, 27 receptions.

 

 

i guess its a very gross understatement to say these are some rediculous numbers

[NJJoe20 0]

I wouldn't laugh at someone who takes LT2 over Johnson, maybe a giggle, due to the new QB they have to break in, but it's hard to argue with Tomlinson's production. Any other RB taken ahead of LJ? Good luck with that.. Johnson is a beast with one of the better o-lines the NFL has seen in years, albeit they are getting older. 2000 yards and 20 TD's wouldn't surpirse me in the least, hell I wouldn't be surprised if he shatters the all-time rushing record, along with the TD record.

[Captian America 0]

No!!!!!!!!!!

[kraziness 0]

Fine. Don't draft him and let someone else ride him all the way to the championship.

 

 

I had him in both leagues this past year, and lost in the finals to the Alexander owner

[Grigs Allmoon 0]

I think they are about the same, talent-wise. (average) But, they are/were in two totally different situations, so no chance of LJ being a total bust. I think he will likely not meet expectations, but still should be a top 5 RB.

[GobbleDog 996]

Regardless, LJ is a beast. It's like asking do you want the red, blue, or black Ferrari. Either one will make you look good. =)

 

[TD Ryan2 316]

to compare LJ to McGahee, you have to compare KC to BUF.

and the situations aren't even close.

to begin with offensive line and rookie QBs and etc, etc.

[escobante 0]

I had him in both leagues this past year, and lost in the finals to the Alexander owner

 

one stud can't wipe out drafting poorly the rest of the way

[TD Ryan2 316]

one stud can't wipe out drafting poorly the rest of the way

 

 

Ladanian Tomlinson '05 disproves this theory. There were a LOT of terrible fantasy rosters that had only LT and he carried them to the playoffs (where they were promptly knocked out... but still... they didn't even belong getting that far on a one-trick pony).

[escobante 0]

Ladanian Tomlinson '05 disproves this theory. There were a LOT of terrible fantasy rosters that had only LT and he carried them to the playoffs (where they were promptly knocked out... but still... they didn't even belong getting that far on a one-trick pony).

 

 

true, it is possible, but my point - i think is clear from the context - is that having the highest scoring player doesn't guarantee a victory.

 

kraziness said that basically it wasn't better to have LJ on his team last year than SA, because the guy who had SA in the playoffs last year knocked him out. but it is factually true that LJ outscored SA in last years playoff games (weeks 14-16). So having LJ instead of SA didn't hurt him, but rather, he would have lost by even more if not for owning LJ. His problem is that it isn't a one to one ratio, there are other players involved. So while LJ was significantly better than anyone else over the second half of the season, there were others who were close, and if you didn't have them on your team, someone else had them on theirs which means they just need to edge you with their role players or a little luck, which is pretty much a toss up.

 

i won both my 14 man leagues last year with LJ on both rosters, but one league had mcnair (scoring a hefty negative 2 fantasy points during superbowl week) and carson palmer in the other league, the league's highest scoring QB.

 

the point is that there a lot of other factors than just one player's performance.

 

though LJ made the difference in my case