Proven (Vet) VS Unproven

[Vermicious Knids 0]

In my keeper league I have the option of keeping either Tiki the Torch or Ronnie Brown. I am undecided and can not figure out the right move. I like Tiki and the fact that he is a warrior and produces. He has been a very good back for a while now. But I have concerns that the wear and tear may get to him. I want to unload him on the down swing rather than keep him for the fall off from the star he is AKA the CMART problem. You know you stay with a guy and then the wheels fall off. If I did not have a potential good RB in the stable to take his place. I like Ronnie a lot and I think he is only going to get better, however I have seen many promising guys never pan out. My question to everyone is do you stay with the proven vet that is on the down side of the hill or do you gamble? What are the bens and what are the factors on either side that pull you that way? Just for reference we keep 3 per year and only 2 can be RB’s. I will also keep Chad Johnson and LT2. I am very curios why people do what they do and there reasoning’s behind it.

[esoitl 0]

since you keep CJ and LT as well, i may be inclined to go for the gamble of Brown

 

 

IMO Tiki and Brown both have legitimate shots at the Top 5 this year, in fact barring injury id already say Tiki is there, but Brown could potentially give the #2 or #3 guy a run for his money this year and next

 

if you can keep more than one year id say Brown without a doubt, if only one than it becomes tricky

in your place i prolly would go Brown just cause you arent banking your RB stable on him with LT, who knows, maybe you end up getting to pick Tiki and end up with all three anyways

[TD Ryan2 316]

since you keep CJ and LT as well, i may be inclined to go for the gamble of Brown

IMO Tiki and Brown both have legitimate shots at the Top 5 this year, in fact barring injury id already say Tiki is there, but Brown could potentially give the #2 or #3 guy a run for his money this year and next

 

if you can keep more than one year id say Brown without a doubt, if only one than it becomes tricky

in your place i prolly would go Brown just cause you arent banking your RB stable on him with LT, who knows, maybe you end up getting to pick Tiki and end up with all three anyways

 

 

 

agreed.

my first though was "who else is available for you" and LT/CJ answered that question.

[Larry David 20]

I think it all depends on how competitive your league is and how good your chances are at winning your championship. If you think you have a legitimate shot at winning the whole thing, I would go with Tiki. If you don't think that's realistic, keep Brown. Sure Brown has a ton of potential, but he's still unproven as the #1 guy for a whole season. Tiki will be money in the bank for at least one more year (if not a few more). Either way you're in great shape assuming you can trade your cast-off for a draft pick.

[gatorbait7391 0]

Take Tiki! Brown isint proven yet and you will get 2 more solid years out of tiki.

[jdon 28]

It all depends on what everyone around you thinks. Do either have a trade value? the simple solution is to move one for a pick or something.

Can you draft one next year?

 

I'd keep brown.

 

jdon

[Second Place Don't Pay 0]

My question to everyone is do you stay with the proven vet that is on the down side of the hill or do you gamble? What are the bens and what are the factors on either side that pull you that way?

 

My standing rule is to trade my high-performing veteran players when I believe they have 3 seasons of above-average production left (so they still have high value) for younger talent with significant upside...last year in the offseason, I traded Harrison for LaMont Jordan. He was unproven and going to a losing team, but he had demonstrated enough for me to be confident in his abilities. I'd say the same for R Brown right now - and given the choice in a keeper of Talking Tiki (who said on Sirius last week that he'll probably only play a couple more years) or Brown, I go with Brown.

[mggoilers 0]

I think I would keep Ronnie. I have a real hard time keeping a 30+ year old RB, even if I believe Tike can still be productive. It does sound a lot like C-Mart from last year. Go with you gut, and you already have a RB with lots of carries on his body in LT...so beware

 

Also, where do you draft? Do you have an opportunity to re-draft Brown or Tiki based on your draft spot. You could always swing a trade to move up in the draft.

 

I made a similiar decision this offseason: I traded Tatum, Julius, Andre Johnson for Edge/Picks

 

I'm pairing Edge and LT in my backfield...youth is nice but I like productivity.

 

Good luck

[Vermicious Knids 0]

I draft 1.10 and Either guy is sure to be taken in the first 3 picks. I won last year after 3 years of being in the league. I believe out of 10 teams 8 (including me) are competitive and shrewed. I can trade the extra guy (Tiki Or RB) but guys tend to overvalue picks I mean really the 1.1 pick is really 1.30 since we each keep 3 people. I am working on getting the 1.3 or 1.4 pick but both guys are saying they have decent enough keepers. One guy will keep D FOster, C Benson and Holt But we will see. I was just curious asI like to see what other people think about things. I have almost assured myself that I will keep RB since he is young and has potential to be a superstar. Of course He will get hurt and Tiki will go onto rush for a million yards and like 678 td's this season. But we will see. Thanks all

[esoitl 0]

It does sound a lot like C-Mart from last year.

unfair to Tiki and C-Mart

if Ronnie was running with a partially torn ligament behind no OL with no QB he'd look horrid too, age has nothing to do with that mess last year

 

Tiki may be +30 but that is no reason to think he will lose anything significant this year

C-Mart is on the downward slope but still has some gas left

[Falconer 0]

I'd go with Brown.

 

Tiki and Brown both have good QBs on their teams, so defenses can't stack against the run. The offensive lines are pretty similar on both teams. However, I do have some concerns with Brandon Jacobs stealing some carries from Tiki. Jacobs is a big RB and could see some goal-line and short-yardage carries. Jacobs had 7 rushing TDs last season (on 38 carries) verus 9 rushing TDs for Tiki (on 357 carries). Jacobs got quite a few goal-line carries last year and it'll probably be the same this year.

[Gepetto 1,368]

What if you drop Chad Johnson, would he be available at 1.10, or another elite WR at 1.10?

 

Otherwise, I like Ronnie Brown's upside, but Tiki Barber is much more of a sure thing and will very likely outproduce Ronnie Brown and the Dolphins might sign Michael Bennett, plus Ricky Williams might be back next year in Miami. I'd keep Tiki and then try and draft Cedric Benson and/or Deangelo Williams and/or other RB with potential. And I still like Julius Jones' upside, maybe he would be there at 1.10, but you might want to go for your WR 2.

 

So if you keep Tiki and draft a running back with big time potential, you can ask this question again next year.

 

[esoitl 0]

I'd go with Brown.

 

Tiki and Brown both have good QBs on their teams, so defenses can't stack against the run. The offensive lines are pretty similar on both teams. However, I do have some concerns with Brandon Jacobs stealing some carries from Tiki. Jacobs is a big RB and could see some goal-line and short-yardage carries. Jacobs had 7 rushing TDs last season (on 38 carries) verus 9 rushing TDs for Tiki (on 357 carries). Jacobs got quite a few goal-line carries last year and it'll probably be the same this year.

Jacobs should have had a lot more TDs last year but even with his sizae he still couldn't get in from one yard out

i have a feeling Tiki will get more of the looks in these situations this year although Jacob's is bit of a concern

[Parja 0]

and the Dolphins might sign Michael Bennett

 

Bennett sucks. He'd be nothing more than a stop gap if Brown goes down.

 

Ricky Williams might be back next year in Miami.

 

Ricky's done. Stick a fork in him.

 

Barring injury, Brown is the man in Miami.

[SoloMatisse 0]

for what its worth, we just started our draft about an hour ago, and I was stuck in the 5th spot, and was deciding between these 2 guys and others of course, and I chose Brown 5th overall in a redraft.....clearly based on potential and upside. He's unproven by both workload/durability and production standards, but Miami has a solid D, a VERY friendly RB schedule, and great Oline coach, a solid QB situation and excellent receivers and TEs. Brown would be my recommendation for you for those reasons......

[Super Cubs 154]

Keep Brown

 

I have a bad habbit of keeping players to long. I've done it with Emmit, Faulk, and now Dillon. I think Dillon has enough gas in the tank for one more good year but no real trade value.

 

Tiki still has value I would try to trade him for a 1st or 2nd round pick. And not to wish bad luck on him but if he does has a down year he'll have little to no value next year at this time.

[Let Da Big Dog Eat 40]

How can you not keep a RB with the initials RB?

 

To me it's pretty simple. This is a keeper league. Tiki does get vultured on the goal line. RB does not. But, most important, baring injury, you should get a good 10 yrs out of RB. 1 or 2 from Tiki. I don't think this is a tough one.