Balance of Power shifting?

[Jay 0]

In the past few years, the AFC has clearly been the stronger conference. I think the balance of power is shifting back to the NFC. Right now, I think it's about even. I think the NFC has the strongest division (NFC East) and a number of very solid teams.

 

AFC Contenders

------------------

Indianapolis

Cincinati

Denver

Pittsburgh

New England

Baltimore

San Diego

Miami

Jacksonville

Kansas City

 

NFC Contenders

-------------------

Seattle

Carolina

Dallas

NYG

Washington

Atlanta

Tampa Bay

Chicago

Arizona

Philly

(St Louis)

(Minnesota)

[TIKI-BARBERS-BARBER 0]

I would add the Saints to the NFC list with Brees and Bush and all that speed on offense they are my surprise team pick this year.

 

By the way I still think Pitt, Indi and Denver are better then any of the nfc's teams.

[TimmySmith 2,782]

I would pare the list down to about 3 legit AFC and 5 legit NFC. While the NFC has greater numbers I would still give the AFC a 60-70% chance of winning it all.

 

My rough percentages of winning the SB

 

Pitt 30%

Indy 25%

Seattle 15%

N.E. 5%

Car, Was, Dal, NYG, Den 3%

 

Rest 10%

[Parja 0]

I would add the Saints to the NFC list...

 

 

That's crazy talk.

[Dan 59]

Contenders for what? The playoffs? I don't think that really becomes a measure of balance between the conferences. Stating that Arizona is a contender for the playoffs may be true, but that doesn't measure them against the AFC.

 

This list merely suggests that the NFC is balancing more against itself - which is in and of itself is an improvement - and that it won't be just a three-team race.

 

But with the teams you listed, I think the AFC still has a decided edge.

[xenophobe 1]

I envision the NFC being the stronger conference this year.

[jdswan922 0]

I don't think the AFC showed its "dominance" in the Super Bowl. That was a very evenly matched game that could have gone either way. As for the depth of quality teams, that is a little harder to say right now. Does anyone know the records of AFC v. NFC last season?

[TD Ryan2 314]

If we match them up (based on ESPN's most recent power rankings):

 

AFC VS NFC

PIT = SEA

IND > CAR

DEN > DAL

NE > WAS

CIN = NYG

JAX = CHI

MIA =TB

BAL = PHI

KC = MIN

SD = ATL

CLE = ARI

OAK < STL

BUF < DET

TEN = GB

NYJ = NO

HOU < SF

 

 

Looks to me like the AFC is more of a roller coaster: THE AFC elites are superior to the NFC's but the AFC's weaker teams are really bad.

 

Certainly SEA and CAR deserve to be atop the NFC, they have the talent AND track record. They're both balanced football teams.

 

DAL, WAS, and NYG are all turning the corner towards being NFL elites; but they haven't proven anything yet. If you want to make the case that the NFC East is the toughest division, that's fine; but PHI has proven to be more of a winner that any of these 3 teams thus far. Thumbsup for the NFC East, they're gonna' be fun to watch this year.

 

When we look atop the AFC, the Elite Teams (PIT, IND, DEN, NE, CIN) are solid on both sides of the ball and (except CIN) none are new to being amongst the iron of the NFL. These teams know how to win, they've been playing in big games all along and they're seasoned. It's not a reach to predict any of these teams to win the SuperBowl.

 

 

As we look down to the bottom of the list, the AFC really does have some struggling teams from OAK on down (OAK, BUF, TEN, NYJ, HOU). I'm just not sure that SF, DET, and NO are as bad off as the AFC weaklings.

[Parkers99 0]

I still say the AFC is superior. There are a half dozen AFC teams that I believe could go home w/ the fat rings this year... Only a few NFC teams.

[jockdoc 0]

OK, so I did this topic a few months ago, and the chatter was significantly that AFC was still dominant over the NFC. I checked the head to head matchups last year and the AFC won 34 out of 64 games, only 2 games over .500! Real dominant huh. This doesn't include the Super Bowl, so ok 3 games over .500. The media will have us believe that the AFC is far dominant over the NFC, but when they actually play the games it apears pretty equal. Whatchathink?

[Monse_HQ 0]

AFC VS NFC

HOU < SF

This needs to change.

[jockdoc 0]

This needs to change.

Why do you say this?

[FlaHawker 24]

I would add the Saints to the NFC list with Brees and Bush and all that speed on offense they are my surprise team pick this year.

 

By the way I still think Pitt, Indi and Denver are better then any of the nfc's teams.

 

 

Pitt--Lost Randle El, Bettis, and Big Ben cracked up his skull, and their # 1 pick is a regular on the Tv show Cops

 

Denver -- lost Mike Anderson Gary Kubiak, and Jake Plummer is their QB

 

Indy--Lost Edge

 

Yeah all three of those are better than the NFC

[Monse_HQ 0]

Pitt--Lost Randle El, Bettis, and Big Ben cracked up his skull, and their # 1 pick is a regular on the Tv show Cops

 

Denver -- lost Mike Anderson Gary Kubiak, and Jake Plummer is their QB

 

Indy--Lost Edge

 

Yeah all three of those are better than the NFC

 

 

Seattle lost Steve Hutchinson.

[TIKI-BARBERS-BARBER 0]

Pitt--Lost Randle El, Bettis, and Big Ben cracked up his skull, and their # 1 pick is a regular on the Tv show Cops

 

Denver -- lost Mike Anderson Gary Kubiak, and Jake Plummer is their QB

 

Indy--Lost Edge

 

Yeah all three of those are better than the NFC

El only had 35 catches last year and that can be replaced. If Holmes keeps out of trouble he gives Pitt a better weapon then Randle. He can be a deep threat where Randle wasn't. Also Reid will fill in nicely in El's place on returns. The Ben thing is the only thing that worries me but he is a tough kid and a winner I think he will recover good and early enuff. As for The Bus his role last year wasn't much and I think Staley will actually do better at that role. His leadership will be missed and he did help out in the Chicago game but his short yardage game is not much of a loss. I think this team will be better then the 05 Superbowl team and people are making to much out of the EL loss.

 

As for Indi I do think they took a step back from lossing Edge and relize he can't be that easily replaced even drafting another rb in the 1st rd. Denver had a good draft and Walker makes them better and also people don't give Jake enuff credit. Plummer is a good enuff qb to win a Superbowl with.

[TIKI-BARBERS-BARBER 0]

I will give you this FlaHawker SeaHawks are a good team Even though they like to push off, hold and chop block alot.

[FlaHawker 24]

Plummer is a good enuff qb to win a Superbowl with.

 

 

You lose all credibility with that quote...Can you say Jay Cutler? You heard it here first. Cutler will be starting by week 12.

 

I will give you this FlaHawker SeaHawks are a good team Even though they like to push off, hold and chop block alot.

 

 

That's true only if you use the Bill Leavy inspired rule book titled "How to Screw a Team playing the Steelers in the Super Bowl and get away with it" which was sanctioned and approved by the Rooney's and the city of Pittsburgh

[t.j 35]

It's all about the coaches. The AFC lost Parcells, Gruden, and Holmgren to the NFC. Then Gibbs unretired. There have been some good additions to the AFC coaching ranks too (i.e. Saban) but for the most part I think coaching changes are what have been shifting the power back toward the NFC side.

[murf74 461]

Only 2 of the last 9 superbowl winners were from the NFC. Isn't that really the deciding factor? Best of AFC vs. best of NFC?

 

The overall playoff teams from the AFC were so much better than the playoff teams from the NFC.

 

Seattle was really head and shoulders above the rest of the NFC, while in the AFC, I really think any team would probably have been favored to beat Seattle in the Superbowl if they got there because of the competition they would have had to beat along the way. Whoever made the Superbowl for the AFC in 2005 had a real uphill battle (except for Indy who had the entire stage set just as they would have liked).

[Steel City Blues 0]

The #6 seeded AFC team beat the #1 seeded NFC team in XL.

 

NFC>AFC....um...yeah. I totally see that.

[Jay 0]

If I were a Pittsburgh fan, I'd still be living in last year too. The point is that a lot of the young, improving teams are in the NFC.

 

The #6 team in the AFC also beat three of the AFC teams in the playoffs. What does that say about them? To me, Seattle looked like the better team. Pittsburgh was better on that day, which is all that matters, but it doesn't lend anything to an argument of the strength of Pittsburgh's team or the conference in general.....ESPECIALLY NOT, this year.

[bigmurd 0]

The #6 seeded AFC team beat the #1 seeded NFC team in XL.

 

NFC>AFC....um...yeah. I totally see that.

Before that the #6 team in the AFC beat the #1, #2 & #3 teams in the AFC - what's your point?

[Baby Jesus 0]

The top teams in the AFC are far superior to the top teams in the NFC.

 

Not only was Pitt the #6 seed to beat the #1 seeded Seahawks, they were also a solid favorite. Vegas doesn't lie.

 

Any assclown that thinks the NFC is a better conference should be immediately banned and redirected to Footballguys.

[Steel City Blues 0]

Before that the #6 team in the AFC beat the #1, #2 & #3 teams in the AFC - what's your point?

Exactly.

 

When the 6th seeded team in a conference beats out the others and is favored by Vegas to win the SB, it shows the AFC is not only strong, but deep with top tier teams. Jacksonville is probably the only AFC playoff team that wouldn't have been favored in the SB. KC and San Diego were also very good teams that would have dominated most of the NFC playoff teams in 05.

 

 

Looking ahead to 2006:

I agree there are some NFC teams rising. Just not enough to say they are better than the top AFC teams.

I've been a Cowboys hater all my life, but you have to the team they have right now. This could be the team to beat.

Washington has been buying guys for years and not done a thing. Do they have talent? Yes. Are they really worthy of a SB ring? That's a BIG stretch.

Arizona is actually one of my favorites to surprise in the NFC, but their SB hopes are dead if they throw Leinert in there. A rookie QB is in over his head during the playoffs.

Pilly is a strong team again. Better than the top AFC teams? I think not.

Seattle is obviously a contender.

The NYG are good and will be tested with a rough looking schedule at this point. If the Giants finish with 11+ wins, notice will have been served.

Carolina was my pick to go to the SB last season. Still one of the teams to beat.

Atlanta wins on Vick's legs, but there are fast defenses that can overcome this.

 

 

At this point, I see Dallas, Carolina, Seattle and maybe the Giants as top contenders. While they are improved, I don't see the NFC as being DOMINANT over the AFC. I still like Pittsburgh, Denver, Indianapolis, New England, Kansas City, and Cincinnati.

[TIKI-BARBERS-BARBER 0]

You lose all credibility with that quote...Can you say Jay Cutler? You heard it here first. Cutler will be starting by week 12.

That's true only if you use the Bill Leavy inspired rule book titled "How to Screw a Team playing the Steelers in the Super Bowl and get away with it" which was sanctioned and approved by the Rooney's and the city of Pittsburgh

Only way Cutler will see the field at all this year will be a injury to Plummer! Denver is a serious contender and is not going to screw that up by starting a rookie qb. And yes I think Plummer is a good enuff qb to win a superbowl with heck the Ravens won with Dilfer and Plummer is head and shoulders above him.

[jdswan922 0]

When the 6th seeded team in a conference beats out the others and is favored by Vegas to win the SB, it shows the AFC is not only strong, but deep with top tier teams.

I am not saying you are wrong, but your logic is flawed. Playoff seedings are based solely on record, which is not always the best indicator of best team. There are a number of factors, beyond just talent and team chemistry, that have to be considered. Strength of schedule, injuries, whether a team took a couple weeks adjusting to a new system, and the like. Just because the Steelers were the 6th seed does not mean that they were not a top 3 team in the AFC.

[listen2me 23 1,545]

Only way Cutler will see the field at all this year will be a injury to Plummer! Denver is a serious contender and is not going to screw that up by starting a rookie qb. And yes I think Plummer is a good enuff qb to win a superbowl with heck the Ravens won with Dilfer and Plummer is head and shoulders above him.

 

Agree with ya.....

 

why the hate against Plummer?....sure he makes some dumb plays but nothing compared to his Zona days...

[Jay 0]

OK, let's analyze these dominant top 6 AFC teams.

 

1) Indianapolis -- Lost Edge in the off-season. Not only a dominant rusher and receiver, but also a team leader and excellent blocker. A lot of big plays in this offense were built off of play action passes that only work with a solid running game. Indy comes down a step.

 

2) Cincinati -- Palmer is coming off a very serious knee injury. Even if he is healthy, to expect him to be exactly the same player as last year is making a pretty big leap. Rudi Johnson and Chris Perry are both coming off of off-season surgeries. The defense is still very young.

 

3) Pittsburgh -- They lost their #2 wide receiver and their emotional leader (Bettis) in the off-season. Their starting quarterback threw himself into a windshield and while he's expected to make it back for the season, will not have the off-season to work on his timing with the replacements. The wide receiver that they picked to replace him currently has two arrests on his record, and he hasn't even signed his rookie contract.

 

4) Denver -- They lost their starting running back, and are currently slotting a lead back that wasn't able to stay above three on the depth chart in New York. Their new second wide receiver is barely running straight ahead, and their other starter is holding out.

 

5) New England -- They lost their #2 wide receiver and top pass-rush linebackers in the off-season and their one elite wide receiver is holding out. They struggled in the secondary last year, and they've still got guys that are injured back there.

 

6) San Diego -- They are starting a quarterback that has not thrown a meaningful NFL pass.

 

7) Kansas City -- Beginning to show signs of age. Gonzalez was not the same player last year. Green and Kennison are a year older.

 

 

OK, now the NFC

 

1) Seattle -- Lost Hutchinson. They swap Jurivicious out for Burleson, which I see as an upgrade. Jackson is still not healthy, and Stevens has off-season surgery, so those are areas of concern.

 

2) Carolina -- Brought in Keyshawn Johnson. In theory, they should get a healthy Jenkins back from injury. They lose backup corner Ricky Manning. Mostly improvements.

 

3) Dallas -- They add TO. No major losses.

 

4) Tampa Bay -- Should have a healthier Michael Clayton. Also brought in David Boston. Offensively, this is a young team that should get better, just with more experience. Might be some concern of age of key defensive players such as Rice and Brooks. The biggest key here is a young quarterback will be better.

 

5) Atlanta -- Brought in John Abraham to aid the pass-rush. Offensively, this is another young team that should improve just with experience.

 

6) NYG -- Some noticably losses in the defensive secondary. Some improvements at linebacker. The biggest key is Manning here.

 

7) Arizona -- Added Edge, and a good offensive draft (even after Leinert). The defense had a slew of injuries that they should get back healthy.

 

8) Washington -- Added two former starters at their weakest position, WR. Arrington's loss might hurt a little, but they didn't like his free-lancing anyway.

 

9) Philly -- Just as loaded as they were before TO got there.

 

Forgot Baltimore -- Not sure if they are in the "Big 6" in the AFC or not, but they did improve. If McNair can absorb the offense quickly enough, they make a huge leap forward. Jamal Lewis should be expected to be in better shape, as he won't be in jail this summer. Overall the offense should be a lot better, and the defense didn't have signficant losses. It all depends on McNair, but they have the look of a playoff team.

[Tud_duke 0]

You lose all credibility with that quote...Can you say Jay Cutler? You heard it here first. Cutler will be starting by week 12.

 

 

And you show how you are no older than 12 with yours.

 

Look up Plummer's win % since his stay in Denver and then compare it to guys like Manning and Brady.

 

Also check the win % of the team when he was out.

[texasmouth 1]

I would add the Saints to the NFC list with Brees and Bush and all that speed on offense they are my surprise team pick this year.

 

By the way I still think Pitt, Indi and Denver are better then any of the nfc's teams.

Saints have to have a nice schedule too.

 

Let's not forget that Sean Payton is a Parcell's lineage guy as well......

[Boston 0]

The AFC is still the better conference. I think Indy, Pittsburg, Denver and New England are the four best teams in the NFL. Three of the four (Indy, Pitt, NE) are loaded with young talent and should be good for awhile. While Carolina and Seattle are big time teams I have them slotted below the four AFC teams. Carolina could make the leap up if a few things fall their way and I could see Denver taking a step back if their RB situation implodes.

 

After those six here are potential playoff caliber teams I see in each conference:

 

AFC: Cincy, Jax, Miami, San Diego, KC

 

NFC: Philly, NYG, Wash, Dall, Chicago, TB, Atl,

 

After that you have teams that are not good or average but headed in the right direction (ex. Cleveland in the AFC and Arizona in the NFC) , not good or average and headed nowhere fast (ex. Buffalo in the AFC and San Fran in the NFC) and teams that are kind of in limbo (ex. Baltimore in the AFC and St. Louis in the NFC).

 

The NFC is improving but right now I see more heavyweight teams in the AFC. Also, I'm not sold that teams like Dallas, Washington, NYG, Atlanta and Tampa are built for the long haul. It would not surprise me to see any of the teams to take a step backwards within the next couple of years. On the flipside I only see teams like Miami, Cincy and San Diego (and possibly Jax) getting better.